Jim Callis of Baseball America believes the Kansas City Royals will take former Tennessee ace Luke Hochevar with the first pick in the draft. If so, it would be apparent that the team has reached a pre-draft agreement with agent Scott Boras. Hochevar was selected by the Los Angeles Dodgers last year and agreed to a $2.98 million signing bonus before reneging on that deal. An amount in excess of $3 million but less than the $5 million that other #1 choices have demanded in the past is probably in the cards. Let's call it $4 million, which is still below what Boras was seeking a year ago for his client.
Posted by Rich Lederer at 12:50 p.m. ET

First Round:

1. Kansas City Royals: Luke Hochevar, RHP (Fort Worth)

A top prospect in last year's draft, it was a surprise when Luke Hochevar slipped on draft day to the 40th pick, belonging to the Dodgers. Our own Rich Lederer wrote his capsule:

...Hochevar's outing on Friday didn't raise his stature in the draft. He worked eight innings and gave up five runs on nine hits while recording nine strikeouts and four walks. However, prior to that, he was considered one of the top two starters in the draft (along with Mike Pelfrey).

Scott Boras and an asking price of $5 million scared away many teams. It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers step up well beyond the norm for a supplemental pick or if Boras and Hochevar come down. Unlike Jered Weaver last year, every team in baseball passed on Hochevar, which weakens his position considerably.

Furthermore, even in the words of Boras, Hochevar is not as "major league ready" as was Weaver last year. Luke might throw a couple of mph harder than Weaver and has a plus breaking ball, but he does not possess the same command and control as Jered. His lack of polish suggests Hochevar is probably at least two years away from pitching at Dodger Stadium.

Conclusion: A potentially great draft pick if the Dodgers can sign him for a price not to exceed $3M.

No, ladies and gentleman, Rich has not edited that last sentence in the last 365 days. The three million dollar bonus that Rich suggested proved to be the dividing line between the two sides, as Hochevar reneged after agreeing to a $2.98M contract.

Since then, thanks to Kent Bonham, we have learned that Hochevar may have been statistically overrated last year. His final junior stat line offers an ERA of 2.26, a number aided by context. Remove defense from the equation, and Hochevar's ERA slips to 3.69, without his park and schedule, just 3.97. Suddenly the Dodgers unwavering offer doesn't look so bad, does it?

Hochevar proved a lot with his stint in Indy ball, showing the same arm strength, and just a little less polish than his previous self. Given a year off to rest his once over-worked arm, this is forgivable.

At any spot in the top ten, Hochevar is simply a reach, lucky to have his hold-out gamble pay off. In truth he is a pitcher that belongs from 10-20 in the draft, garnering little more than slot from that position. Given his flakiness in the past, the bang is just not worth the buck with Hochevar.
Posted by Bryan Smith at 1:16 p.m. ET

2. Colorado Rockies: Greg Reynolds, RHP (Stanford)

Not one of my partner Bryan's favorite prospects, Reynolds flew up the draft boards by beating fellow Pac-10 stars Lincecum and Morrow late in the regular season and then North Carolina State in the opening game of the Texas Regional last Friday. He has pitched five complete games in his last six starts and will be extending his season when he faces the Beavers once again in the Oregon State Super Regional this weekend.

Reynolds has the size (6-7, 225) and excellent command of a fastball that sits in the low-90s, as well as a curveball that impressed me when I had the opportunity to watch his last start on TV. He throws strikes but has never been one to punch out very many hitters, as evidenced by a mediocre K/9 rate in college and in the Cape Cod League the past two summers.
Posted by Rich at 12:41 a.m. ET

3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B (Long Beach State)

Longoria slips past the Rockies and into the laps of the Devil Rays. The Cape Cod MVP last summer follows in the footsteps of Bobby Crosby and Troy Tulowitzki as the third Dirtbag infielder selected in the first round of the draft in the past six years.

Here is my scouting report from early February after watching him over a three-game weekend vs. USC:

Second-year transfer from Rio Hondo JC...Named the Cape Cod MVP after leading the league in homers (8), RBI (35), and SLG (.500) and a first team Summer All-American by Baseball America...Can play 3B, SS, or 2B...Adequate defensively...Slightly open stance with left heel off the ground...Steps into ball as it is pitched...Drives ball to all fields...Hit a long flyout that was held up by the thick air in the first inning on Friday against Kennedy...Tattooed a line drive past a diving CF for a triple in the fourth inning vs. the USC ace...Runs well for his size and is a good baserunner...Rated as the 10th-best prospect by Baseball America and is a lock to be one of the first position players drafted in June.

Longoria should fit in well with Tampa Bay's youth movement. Although some have likened him to Aaron Hill and others to Chase Utley, I think he profiles a bit like Ryan Zimmerman. At 6-2, 213 pounds, Longoria's build is similar to Zimmerman's. They both exhibit line-drive power, capable of hitting .280-.300 with 20 or more home runs. Longoria may not make quite the rush to the majors as Zimmerman did last year but could find himself in the Show at some point in 2007.
Posted by Rich at 1:59 p.m. ET

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Brad Lincoln, RHP (Houston)

An outstanding two-way player in college, Lincoln will undoubtedly earn his keep as a pitcher at the next level. One of the many "undersized" RHP in the draft, the hard-throwing Cougar has displayed excellent command of his fastball and secondary pitches and could work his way through the minors rather quickly.
Posted by Rich at 11:43 p.m. ET

5. Seattle Mariners: Brandon Morrow, RHP (California)

After a 9.36 ERA in his sophomore season, Brandon Morrow had worked his way off a lot of follow lists. However, like so many prospects before him, Morrow was a Cape Cod League darling, quite possibly the league's best 2006 success story. Pitching in relief, Morrow dominated, striking out 24 batters in 14.2 innings, flashing a good fastball and plus splitter. Reservations about his control and starting potential carried into this spring, and were for the most part, quenched by his great 2006. The right hander continued to be near unhittable, allowing just 72 knocks in 96.2 innings.

The biggest question surrounding the live arm is his ability to control the fastball, a weakness that seems to come and go with each outing. With good control Morrow might be the best arm in this draft, a player that held postseason teams UCLA, UC Irvine and Stanford to just five runs in 22.2 innings, striking out 27. But in other starts, he's off, letting bad command get to him on the mound. However, many believe Morrow's strength is his ability to be effectively wild - in his two starts while allowing six walks, Morrow didn't allow an earned run over 12 innings.

Whether his future lies in a rotation or a bullpen, there is a future for Brandon Morrow. This kind of arm strength is rarely wasted too long in the minor leagues.
Posted by Bryan at 1:41 p.m. ET

Note: As reported by Baseball America, no high school player was taken in the top five picks for the first time since 1992 when Derek Jeter went sixth.

6. Detroit Tigers: Andrew Miller, LHP (North Carolina)

I saw Miller's last start, his regional appearance against Winthrop, and this is the best attempt at a scouting report that I could muster:

Miller's length comes across as soon as he walks towards the mound; his frame is all arms and legs. The length allows for very good extension in his delivery, which helps produce a 91-93 mph four seam fastball that touched 95 mph in the first inning. His frame is so wiry that the naked eye guesses it could add 25-30 pounds, maybe more; Miller's success could greatly depend upon his workroom ethic. The slider is as every bit as good as advertised, a pitch impossible for left-handed hitters to hit. Miller knows this, and goes to it early and often during at-bats against LHB. Some question his ability to stay in a rotation without a third pitch, but his two-seamer plays the part of a change up, working in the high 80s. While the pitch doesn't offer the velocity difference that a true FB-CU combo would, the two-seamer's heavy action makes it a difficult pitch to adjust to.

Andrew did not pitch great against Winthrop, allowing four runs in eight innings of work. But scouting is done between the lines, and the gray area is where Miller thrives. Comparisons have been thrown out all over the place, and Miller's career has been written up as both a starter and a reliever.

I was always a believer in Andrew Miller, a proponent of his since he was a sophomore. On Saturday, I found out first-hand why. Truly, no one in this draft offers more potential.
Posted by Bryan at 1:40 p.m. ET

7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, LHP (H.S./Dallas)

Kershaw was the first high school player chosen in this year's draft. Highly coveted by the Dodgers, he got past the Tigers because Andrew Miller was still available when Detroit's turn came up. The 6-4, 215-pound LHP had a 13-0 record with a 0.77 ERA in his senior season. He has reportedly touched the mid-90s with his fastball and has a plus curveball. Improved mechanics have contributed to better command. Given his height, handedness, stuff, and track record, Kershaw has one of the highest ceilings among all draftees.
Posted by Rich at 3:25 p.m. ET

8. Cincinnati Reds: Drew Stubbs, OF (Texas)

Stubbs has been associated with the "Can He Hit?" question since people have ranked the 2006 draft-eligible players. However, from a facts perspective, he has *never not* hit. As a freshman, at one of the country's largest programs, Stubbs earned an everyday spot. He was one of the better players on a 2005 club that won the national title, drawing rave reviews for his defense in center. The College World Series proved Stubbs to be a freak athlete - and freak athletes with contact problems draw an unfortunate group of comps.

Last summer, Stubbs hit well with wood, hitting .304 for the USA Baseball National team. And this year, given the role of leading the Texas attack, Stubbs thrived, coming to play on every day of the week. There are serious contact problems, yes, but Stubbs skillset counteracts that. His speed and power should yield higher BABIP rates than than most players, meaning we don't have to write him off as Torii Hunter just yet (how many can say that?).

If all else fails, Stubbs will sit on a Major League bench, able to play all three OF positions, and able to steal a base, hit a home run and draw a walk at will. If all goes well, he is the best position player eligible to be drafted.
Posted by Bryan at 1:45 p.m. ET

9. Baltimore Orioles: Bill Rowell, 3B (H.S./Sewell, N.J.)

Rowell was the first high school position player drafted this year. He played shortstop in high school but projects as a third baseman in the pros. The left-handed-hitting Rowell, known to have "middle of the lineup power," set the school's career home run record during his junior season and hit .557 with six home runs as a senior.

According to mlb.com, the Orioles expect that he will sign quickly and play with one of the team's short-season affiliates this year.
Posted by Rich at 6:50 p.m. ET

10. San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum, RHP (Washington)

Lincecum is the Giants' first pick in the opening round since 2002 when they took another power pitcher in Matt Cain. The Husky went 12-4 with a 1.94 ERA while leading all Division I pitchers with 199 strikeouts.

I watched Lincecum when he faced USC on April 21. I charted his pitches, talked to scouts, and reported my findings here.

Lincecum's stuff is as good as or better than any college pitcher in the draft. He throws a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding curve. A veteran scout that I spoke to rated Lincecum's fastball as a 7 (on the 1-8 scale the team uses) or a 70 (on the more traditional 20-80 range). He called Lincecum's curve and change-up a 6 and his pitchability a 65.

Many analysts have suggested that Lincecum could make it to the majors this year as a reliever, but let's not forget how many pitches this workhorse has already thrown since the beginning of February. I wouldn't be inclined to rush Lincecum and would like to see him given a chance to become a starter in the professional ranks first. If it doesn't work out, then go ahead and convert him into a Scot Schields-type relief pitcher.
Posted by Rich at 4:44 p.m. ET

11. Arizona Diamondbacks: Max Scherzer (RHP, Missouri)

12. Texas Rangers: Kasey Kiker, LHP (H.S./Phenix City, Ala.)

13. Chicago Cubs: Tyler Colvin, LF (Clemson)

John Manuel of Baseball America called this pick "the biggest shock of the first half of the first round." His physical tools (6-3, 190 pounds with good speed as evidenced by stealing 23 bases in 27 attempts) and stats (.359-12-65 with a .622 SLG) while playing for one of the best teams in college baseball would suggest this selection may not be such a reach after all. Cubs fans will get a chance to see their #1 pick this weekend as Clemson hosts Oral Roberts in one of the eight Super Regionals.
Posted by Rich at 7:46 p.m. ET

14. Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Snider, OF (H.S./Everett, Wash.)

Toronto reverses its recent course of taking college players in the first round by taking the player Baseball America ranked as the "Best Pure Hitter" among high school eligible draftees.
Posted by Rich at 11:31 p.m. ET

15. Washington Nationals: Chris Marrero, 3b (H.S./Miami)

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP (H.S./South Boston, Va.)

17. San Diego Padres: Matt Antonelli, 3B (Wake Forest)

We should feel lucky, as baseball fans, that Antonelli picked our sport. He certainly didn't have to. As a senior in high school, Antonelli was a three-sport star, or more specifically, the three sport star. Antonelli was named the state's best player in both football and hockey. The baseball award went to Jeff Allison, with Antonelli landing a close second.

But, he chose baseball. Scouts watched Antonelli for two years thanks to such plus athleticism, witnessing a solid if unspectacular collegiate campaign. In his second summer at the Cape, Antonelli began to draw more notice, despite a lackluster .267/.361/.330 line. His success post-Cape is one of the best data points to support the notion that true offensive Cape success stands around the .700 OPS line.

Before this spring, scouts wondered if Antonelli could hit for power. So, he doubled his previous career high home run total, slugging .584. They doubted his ability to hit good pitching, but he was one of the draft's best on Friday nights. And, of course, Antonelli showed versatility, patience and speed; playing 2B in addition to 3B, drawing 39 walks, and going 15-for-18 on the bases.

If you prefer a draft-for-the-stars approach in the first round, Antonelli is not your guy. But he does a little for everything, and his versatility will lend a future somewhere.
Posted by Bryan at 1:46 p.m. ET

18. Philadelphia Phillies (for Billy Wagner): Kyle Drabek, RHP/SS (H.S./The Woodlands, Texas)

Makeup, makeup, makeup. Drabek is a top ten talent but a fiery temper and off-the-field issues dropped him to #18. The son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug projects as a pitcher although he has the tools to hit and field at the pro level. His fastball has been known to reach the upper-90s and his power curve ranks among the very best in the draft.
Posted by Rich at 9:23 p.m. ET

19. Florida Marlins: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP (Missouri State)

20. Minnesota Twins: Chris Parmelee, OF/1B (H.S./Chino Hills, Calif.)

Baseball America listed Parmalee as the high schooler with the "Best Strike-Zone Judgment" and the second "Best Pure Hitter."
Posted by Rich at 11:37 p.m. ET

21. New York Yankees (for Tom Gordon): Ian Kennedy, RHP (USC)

Here is my scouting report on Kennedy as written in early February. I have seen him pitch several times while at USC, including an outing vs. the University of Washington that I charted pitch-by-pitch.

Following in the footsteps of fellow Trojans Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, and Mark Prior...Consensus All-American...Pac-10 Pitcher of the Year...Two-time pitcher for Team USA...Although stuff is no better than average for a major league hurler, the right-hander exhibits outstanding command of four pitches...Fastball ranged from 89-91 all night...Throws strikes and changes speed...His stretch position is similar to Mike Mussina...Top ten draft pick unless his advisor and soon-to-be agent Scott Boras scares off potential suitors.

Kennedy's stock fell this year, owing to a disappointing junior season. Agreeing to terms with agent Scott Boras could prove troublesome. If and when Kennedy signs--and for how much--should prove to be one of the more interesting post-draft stories.
Posted by Rich at 3:33 p.m. ET

22. Washington Nationals (for Esteban Loaiza): Colton Willems, RHP (H.S./Fort Pierce, Fla.)

23. Houston Astros: Max Sapp, C (H.S./Windermere, Fla.)

24. Atlanta Braves: Cody Johnson, 1B (H.S./Panama City, Fla.)

25. Los Angeles Angels (for Paul Byrd): Hank Conger, C (H.S./Huntington Beach, Calif.)

26. Los Angeles Dodgers: Bryan Morris, RHP (Motlow State CC, Tenn.)

Callis correctly tabbed this pick in his Tuesday morning mock draft (although he later moved him all the way up to the Dodgers' first pick at #7). Morris may not be as well known as many college pitchers because he played for a community college in Tennessee. However, he earned Freshman of the Year and Pitcher of the Year honors while fashioning a 10-1 record with a 0.82 ERA, which included a no-hitter vs. Southwest Tennessee and a four-hit, complete-game shutout with 14 strikeouts vs. Hiwasee in the playoffs.

Morris is my type of pitcher. The 6-3, 200-pound RHP has a plus fastball and a power curve. Moreover, the freshman recorded 122 Ks in 88 IP (12.48 K/9) and induced nine groundouts (and only two flyouts) in that Hiwasee shutout last month. He was drafted in the third round by the Devil Rays out of high school last June. The two sides supposedly agreed on a $1.3 million bonus that greatly exceeded the slot money, but the deal was never consummated due to an inability on the part of ownership to pull the trigger. Morris chose to attend Motlow State and join his Dad, who is the assistant coach, for one year.

Without seeing him pitch before, I'm still going to give Logan White a big thumbs up on this draft pick.
Posted by Rich at 2:53 p.m. ET

27. Boston Red Sox: Jason Place, OF (H.S./Easley, S.C.)

28. Boston Red Sox (for Johnny Damon): Daniel Bard, RHP (North Carolina)

There seem to be two camps regarding Daniel Bard entering the draft: the apologists and the critics. Both sides have valiant arguments, and at times this season, I have audibly been on either side.

From a statistical standpoint, it is easy to be critical of Bard. Mixed in with great performances as a freshman and in his 2005 summer are disappointing sophomore and junior caimpaigns. Bard became the poster boy of inconsistency this season, and was not able to turn around his aptitude for the big inning. His context was a wash; his AdjDERA equivalent to his season ERA. Bard has a good arm and offers a lot of upside, but he doesn't profile as a top 15 pick.

That's one side. The other is far more focused on his freshman year, and really points to last year's Cape: 82 strikeouts in 65 innings. Scouts often stand on this side, enamored with the ease of Bard's delivery. In his regional start, Bard sat at 93-96 mph, and seemingly recorded a ground ball out at will. His slider comes in at the low 80s, and is a pretty devastating second pitch. He uses a third pitch, a mid 80s change, more than most of these high level players use their "third pitch."

John Manuel of Baseball America recently compared Bard's season to that of Justin Verlander as a college junior; an inconsistent spring unable to meet summer's expectations. But scouts across the nation know that Bard, the type that looks like a future workhorse, has the stuff to belong in the top 10. I agree.
Posted by Bryan at 1:42 p.m. ET

29. Chicago White Sox: Kyle McCulloch, RHP (Texas)

30. St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Ottavino, RHP (Northeastern)

Note: 15 college players, 13 high schoolers, 1 JC, and 1 Indy Leaguer were taken in the first round.

Sandwich Picks:

31. Los Angeles Dodgers (for Jeff Weaver): Preston Mattingly, SS (H.S./Evansville, Ind.)

Yes, Preston is Don's son. He's a 6-3, 205-pound shortstop out of Evansville Central HS in Indiana. A three-sport star, Mattingly earned All-State honors with the football and basketball teams. He signed a national letter of intent to play baseball for the University of Tennessee. Look for the younger Mattingly to forsake college for the riches of professional ball.
Posted by Rich at 5:04 p.m. ET

32. Baltimore Orioles (for B.J. Ryan): Pedro Beato, RHP (JC/St. Petersburg, Fla.)

33. San Francisco Giants (for Scott Eyre): Emmanuel Burriss, SS (Kent St.)

34. Arizona Diamondbacks (for Tim Worrell): Brooks Brown, RHP (Georgia)

35. San Diego Padres (for Ramon Hernandez): Kyler Burke, OF/LHP
(H.S./Chattanooga, Tenn.)

36. Florida Marlins (for A.J. Burnett): Chris Coghlan, 3B (Mississippi)

37. Philadelphia Phillies (for Billy Wagner): Adrian Cardenas, INF
(H.S./Miami Lakes, Fla.)

38. Atlanta Braves (for Kyle Farnsworth): Cory Rasmus, RHP/SS (H.S./Seale, Ala.)

Cory's brother Colby was taken by the Cardinals in the 28th spot last year. A two-way player, he projects more as a pitcher than as an infielder. The stigma of six-foot-and-under RHP has apparently been overcome this year with Rasmus, Lincoln, Lincecum, Drabek, and Jeffress all getting first and supplemental round attention despite their lack of height.
Posted by Rich at 5:20 p.m. ET

39. Cleveland Indians (for Bob Howry): David Huff, LHP (UCLA)

I scouted Huff when he pitched against Miami back in February. He is a finesse pitcher, working in the high-80s. His fastball did not touch 90 that day but hit 89 on at least three occasions. The lefty throws a slow curve in the low-70s and a somewhat harder curve/slider that was consistently at 78-79 that afternoon. He will need to locate his fastball and change speeds to keep batters off balance in order to succeed at the big-league level.
Posted by Rich at 7:28 p.m. ET

40. Boston Red Sox (for Johnny Damon): Kris Johnson, LHP (Wichita State)

41. New York Yankees (for Tom Gordon): Joba Chamberlain, RHP (Nebraska)

42. St. Louis Cardinals (for Matt Morris): Chris Perez, RHP (Miami)

43. Atlanta Braves (for Rafael Furcal): Steve Evarts, LHP (H.S./Tampa, Fla.)

Atlanta stayed the course of previous drafts by selecting its third high school player out of the southeast. Cody Johnson (#24), Cory Rasmus (#38), and Evarts (#43) give the Braves three more kids to put into its pipeline of young talent.
Posted by Rich at 11:27 p.m. ET

44. Boston Red Sox (for Bill Mueller): Caleb Clay, RHP (H.S./Cullman, Ala.)

Note: 7 college players, 6 high schoolers, and 1 JuCo were taken in the supplemental round.

Updates

5:35 p.m. - With allowance for last second adjustments, Callis correctly projected seven of the top ten picks. He dialed the first 18 selections last year. Baseball America's draft guru had Kershaw going to Detroit in the 6th hole (although parenthetically added that "this is the first possible stop for Andrew Miller, too"), which led to the wrong choice by the Dodgers. To Jim's credit, he figured L.A. would nab Morris with their first pick when, in fact, they lucked out and took him their second pick and the 26th overall.

7:32 p.m. - The first day of the draft has concluded. The draft will resume tomorrow with the 19th round. Be sure to check back later today and tomorrow for more updates and comments.

A few of Rich's quick takes in the aftermath of the first day:

STL: The Cardinals certainly drafted a lot of big-name college players in Perez, Jay, Hamilton, Degerman, Robinson, and Erickson. Ottavino's size and strikeout rates are intriguing. Not sure how much he was tested at Northeastern though.

I saw Jay when Miami was out here (vs. UCLA) and wasn't impressed. He has what I would term a poor stance with a very "handsy" approach. He starts with his hands held above his head, then drops them into the slot before raising them as the ball is pitched. Unless Jay makes adjustments, I would think pitchers could get him out with hard stuff high and tight.

With respect to Degerman, his stats (12-1, 1.67 with 150 strikeouts in 113 innings) should be enough to impress me, but I can't get past his highly unorthodox mechanics. My eyes almost popped out of my sockets when I saw him pitch on TV this past weekend. Sure, he pitched well, but mark me as a skeptic. His straight-over-the-top delivery doesn't appear sustainable to me and his diving curveball may not be as effective with a different arm slot.

ARI: I'm not particularly high on Buck (OK, I flat out don't like him), but I like the team's first three pitchers (Scherzer, Brown, and Anderson). If the D-Backs can sign all three, I think we will look back in time and applaud their 2006 draft. I also became a Hankerd believer when I saw him play three games vs. LBSU in February. He also showed up well on Kent Bonham's list of hitters.

Here is my scouting report on the USC left fielder:

Drafted in the 45th round by the Chicago Cubs in 2003...Broke out last summer in the New England Collegiate League, hitting .383 with nine HR and 36 RBI (two short of winning a triple crown)...Big, strong kid...Keeps weight back with left heel off the ground...Lifts front foot straight up...Slight uppercut swing...Hits the ball hard and usually in the air...Outfield defense is plenty good enough...Made three spectacular catches, including diving grabs to his left and right plus a running catch going back and toward the line in left field...Also threw out a runner trying to score on a single from second base with two outs with a one-hop strike to the catcher...Should be moving up draft boards as the spring progresses.

CLE: Given the lack of a first round pick, the Indians fared quite well in my judgment. Huff, Wright, Rodriguez, and Hodges comprise a formidable foursome. Although Davis might be more of a name than anything else, he seems like a worthwhile pick at 101. That said, I may have taken CSUF's Blake Davis before Adam. If healthy, Rustich, the big UCLA relief pitcher, could be a steal at 401.

PIT: I would give the Pirates a strong "B" this year. Lincoln alone makes for a good draft. Felix is a favorite of those who paid attention to Kent Bonham's work on pitchers. Don't know what to make of Hughes after watching him pitch all year. He was up and down and may lack the mental toughness one would like to see. Negrych's upside may not be all that great, but neither did he cost them much as a sixth rounder.

Permalink | Comments (14)

Larry Borowsky wrote a guest column last week called Baseball Without the Numbers. It was a refreshing piece in an era dominated by statistics. But enough with the refreshments. Man needs his meat and potatoes, too. If you like baseball with the numbers, then this piece is for you. If you don't, be sure to check back this summer as we're bound to come up with another numberless article.

Numbers, numbers, numbers. We have 100 of them for you. Yes, we've got something for every number from 0 to 99. Baseball With the Numbers.

00: the number of HR Jason Kendall will hit for the second straight year.

01: Nap Lajoie hits .426, the highest batting average since 1900.

02: how many different times San Francisco fans get to pay for the day/night doubleheader between the Astros and Giants on Thursday, April 13.

03: the size of the Angels' lead when K-Rod comes into the game.

04: hits, runs, RBI, and SB combined Brandon Watson has in 23 AB this year (but all's not lost--he has 2 CS).

05: starts until the Red Sox regret letting Curt Schilling throw 231 pitches in his first two outings.

06: hitters Will Ohman faced, and let on base before being taken out of Tuesday's loss to Reds.

07: years since Ken Ray -- the Braves new set-up man -- last appeared in the Major Leagues.

08: the number of saves Chris Ray will have at the end of April.

09: consecutive home openers the Yankees have won.

10: more baserunners Kyle Lohse has allowed in the same number of innings as Francisco Liriano.

11: walks allowed by the Daniel and Fernando Cabrera in their first outings this year, totaling 2 1/3 IP.

12: hits by Florida Marlins outfielders in 54 at-bats.

13: a lucky number for Derrek Lee and David Ortiz.

14: days until we expect George Steinbrenner to issue his first statement.

15: Win Shares we suspect David Wright has earned through the Mets first five wins.

16: number of players fighting at the bat rack to face Glendon Rusch.

17: strikeouts, including Spring Training, Chan Ho Park has recorded in 13.1 innings since his great World Baseball Classic.

18: number of strikeouts among six Brewers starters in 130 at-bats.

19: number of strikeouts between Geoff Jenkins and Prince Fielder in 53 at-bats.

20: Happy Birthday, King Felix.

21: how many BB the Brothers Giles have thus far.

22: how many BB the Brothers Molina will have all year.

23: men left on base by Juan Encarnacion this season without an RBI.

24: Philadelphia's run total after seven games.

25: baserunners Andy Pettitte has allowed in two starts this season.

26: Spring Training hits (in 60 AB) that earned Josh Barfield the Padres 2B job.

27: games into the season it took in 2005 for Jose Reyes to match his current walk total.

28: days since Roger Clemens last pitched in a baseball game.

29: consecutive years Tony LaRussa has been managing in the big leagues.

30: groundball outs Mark Mulder has induced in 15 innings thus far.

31: reader's choice.

32: scrabble points in Doug Mientkiewicz's last name.

33: home runs Barry Bonds hit in 1990, when he won his first MVP award.

34: Babe Ruth's last year with the Yankees.

35: strikeouts that Leo Mazzone's pitching staff has through 63 innings, six less than their total number of walks.

36: the most extra-base hits Ozzie Guillen ever had in a single season.

37: reader's choice.

38: consecutive games in which Vladimir Guerrero has gotten a hit vs. the Texas Rangers.

39: years since the last Triple Crown winner.

40: Greg Maddux's age as of Friday.

41: weeks since Eric Gagne last struck out a Major League hitter.

42: games it took Jim Thome to hit his first four home runs in 2005.

43: percent of the time the Detroit Tigers have been successful on the basepaths in 2006.

44: games into the season it took for COL to win the same number of road games last year as it has won this year.

45: regular season home runs Brandon Wood has hit since 2005, spanning 573 at-bats.

46: Nolan Ryan's age when he pummelled then 26-year-old Robin Ventura in 1993.

47: reader's choice.

48: Julio Franco's age by season's end.

49: what's 7x7 (just checking to see if you're still following along).

50: games until Ramon Ramirez, Waner Mateo, Ryan Rafferty and Justin Mallet will be playing baseball again.

51: number of pitches Ronny Cedeno has seen in his first six games, lowest in the Majors.

52: Barry Bonds' uniform number...oh thit...25!

53: reader's choice.

54: the fewest number of career wins by a pitcher (Bill Stoneman) with two no-hitters.

55: games before anyone will notice that Ramon Ramirez, Waner Mateo, Ryan Rafferty and Justin Mallet are back.

56: Mickey Mantle.

57: hits the Colorado Rockies have collected in four road games, in which the team is 4-0.

58: appearances between Johan Santana allowing 10 or more hits in a game, a streak which ended on Opening Day.

59: how many wins Jim Leyland needs over the next like number of games to get his lifetime record up to .500.

60: shutouts Bert Blyleven threw during his 22-year career.

61: batting average for Jeff Francoeur's 2-for-33 start.

62: number of days before the Atlanta RF is back in the minors.

63: pitches Jon Papelbon has needed to cruise through his first five appearances, including four saves.

64: batters University of Washington right-hander Tim Lincecum has faced in his last two starts, 30 of which ended in strikeouts.

65: errors that defensive specialist -- and $20.2 million man -- Jack Wilson projects to have in 2006.

66: the inning in which Cal State Fullerton ace Wes Roemer walked his first batter of the season.

67: after Tuesday, the percent of Khalil Greene's hits that have gone for home runs, the highest in the Majors west of Bronson Arroyo.

68: 1.12.

69: number of years since the last NL Triple Crown winner.

70: Pete Rose and Ray Fosse.

71: reader's choice.

72: Steve Carlton. 27 of Phillies 59 wins, 1.97 ERA, 310 K's, 346.1 IP.

73*: Billy Crystal's next movie?

74: Mike Marshall pitches 106 games and 208.1 IP--all in relief--and wins the Cy Young award.

75: percent of Atlanta's four wins earned by Oscar Villarreal.

76: average speed of Tim Wakefield's fastball last year.

77: Reggie...Reggie...Reggie.

78: reader's choice.

79: "We are Fam-i-ly!"

80: Mike Schmidt and George Brett.

81: home runs that the San Francisco Giants currently project to hit this season.

82: how many victories it will take to win the NL West.

83: reader's choice.

84: J.T. Snow's uniform number this year in honor of his dad, Jack, who died in January.

85: highest OPS+ that Neifi Perez has posted in a single season.

86: how many months before Hank Aaron's career HR record is broken.

87: the approximate average speed of a Freddy Garcia fastball in two starts.

88: walks plus hits allowed by the Kansas City Royals in 53 innings.

89: days until the All-Star Break.

90: last full season in which the Braves didn't finish in first place.

91: days until we know for sure that the AL has home field advantage (again) in the World Series.

92: Kansas City losses by Labor Day.

93: number of intentional walks Todd Helton is currently on pace for, which would still fall 27 behind the single-season record.

94: did baseball really not have a World Series that year?

95: career OPS+ of Twins third baseman Tony Batista in over 4,500 career plate appearances.

96: average speed of A.J. Burnett's fastball last year.

97: last year in which the Yankees failed to win the AL East.

98: reader's choice.

99: Wayne Gretzky. All right, all right. So this is a baseball site. Sue us.

Please feel free to add your best ideas in the comments section to the numbers marked "reader's choice." Don't be afraid to have some fun with this "contest."

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Last December, we introduced a formula for identifying overrated offensive players (or OOPs). It is simple and straightforward:

1. Batting Average > League Norm
2. On Base Percentage and Slugging Average < League Norm

As noted when we rolled out the idea of OOPs, "the players who meet the above criterion are singles hitters who only walk on occasion and rarely slug home runs." Such players have batting averages that are "hollow" with little else to support their value. By definition, the qualifying hitters have low Isolated Discipline (IsoD) and Isolated Power (IsoP). IsoD equals OBP minus AVG, and IsoP equals SLG minus AVG. These isolated stats tell you what's not a part of batting average.

In order to make the all-OOPs team last year, a player had to hit higher than .264 with an OBP less than .330 and a SLG below .419 with a minimum of 400 plate appearances. We won't know what the league averages will be this year until October but that didn't stop us from picking our pre-season all-OOPs team.

A little drumroll, please...

 C: Paul Lo Duca
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Mark Grudzielanek
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: Joe Randa
OF: Willy Taveras
OF: Juan Pierre
OF: Darin Erstad

C: Paul Lo Duca, New York Mets

Did you know that Lo Duca is going to play for the San Diego Padres next? How do we know that? Well, LoDuca has been following in the footsteps of Mike Piazza his entire career. Both players were drafted and signed by the Dodgers and later traded to the Marlins and then the Mets. Piazza joined the Padres as a free agent in the off-season. Given that Lo Duca has succeeded Piazza at every stop along the way, it only makes sense that he will wind up in San Diego.

There is one major difference that separates these two catchers. Whereas Piazza is inarguably the greatest-hitting catcher of all time, Lo Duca is the most overrated offensively to don the tools of ignorance among active players. Paul hit .320 with 25 HR in his first full season but has been stuck at or around .280 and 10 homers ever since. He turns 34 next week and is unlikely to improve on these numbers this year.

Honorable Mention: Johnny Estrada, Arizona Diamondbacks

1B: Nomar Garciaparra, Los Angeles Dodgers

Perhaps a surprise pick at first base, we believe Garciaparra is no longer anywhere close to the hitter he was the first six years of his career. The Dodgers' decision to move Nomar to first surprised every DePodesta-ite out there, as all had been praying Hee Seop Choi would finally get his chance. Instead, Los Angeles opted to stake first base production in a 32-year-old former star with a vicious history of injury problems. To boot, Nomar has spent his entire career in stadiums like Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, both of which are far cries from the spacious confines of Chavez Ravine. In 2005, Garciaparra's .169 Isolated Power matched a career low (previously set in 2004), and his .037 Isolated Discipline was his lowest since 1997. The writing is on the wall for this signing to look bad for all involved, as a healthy season could yield .290/.330/.440 production. Whither Choi?

Honorable Mention: Sean Casey, Pittsburgh Pirates

2B: Mark Grudzielanek, Kansas City Royals

How could we possibly refrain from the Most Overrated Offensive Active Player? Mark has had a long, successful career in the Major Leagues simply on his ability to bat .287. However, in more than 5,500 career at-bats, Grudzi's career OPS lies closer to .700 than .750. Despite being a late bloomer and having his best years ever these past three seasons, we're convinced the 1996 version (.306/.340/.397) is coming back. And really, what better environment to do so than Kansas City, the organization that placed a lot of unnecessary hope in his veteran leadership. We would all like to see Grudzielanek, one of the game's better guys, go out on a high note. But no matter how you slice it, an OOP is always an OOP.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Miles, St. Louis Cardinals

SS: Jose Reyes, New York Mets

Reyes was a second team all-OOPs member last year. His ability to beat out infield hits adds batting average points but the lack of walks and extra-base power hurts him in the other two rate stats. Jose is an excellent base runner so his weakness offensively is simply how he performs at the plate. He led the majors in outs in 2005 and, as a leadoff hitter, is a prime candidate to become the first player to repeat this trick since Chad Curtis in 1994 and 1995. If Reyes ever learns to take a walk, he could go from overrated to a true star as fast as it takes him to get down the line.

Honorable Mention: Omar Vizquel, San Francisco Giants

3B: Joe Randa, Pittsburgh Pirates

Last year's Great American Ballpark-caused power outbreak notwithstanding, Joe Randa has a long history of OOPs-like behavior. From 1996 to 2004, Randa's batting average slipped below .280 on just two occassions. However, Randa eclipsed a slugging of .450 only three times and has not had an OBP of .350 since 1999. The NL Central was good to Randa last year, but with another year of age and a new, tougher ballpark, don't expect anything close to the line he put up in Cincinnati. Randa has been told he's a useful stopgap his whole career, and it seems as if he will finish his career with that notoriety. A good player some years, a bad player other years, we think he will simply be overrated this year.

Honorable Mention: Brandon Inge, Detroit Tigers

OF: Willy Taveras, Houston Astros

Taveras is a pretty easy choice here. By virtue of having the highest batting average among those players who failed to match the league average in OBP and SLG, Willy was our OOPs Player of the Year last year. Taveras has next to no power as evidenced by his .050 IsoP in 2005. It's hard to bunt for a double. His IsoD (.034) was just as poor. It's difficult to walk when you don't take pitches (3.53/PA). He has no business batting second, despite manager Phil Garner's insistence that Taveras is a good bet to sacrifice leadoff hitter Craig Biggio to second. The math doesn't really compute in terms of run expectancy but, hey, who are we to question a skipper who is 2-for-2 in taking the Astros to the postseason?

OF: Juan Pierre, Chicago Cubs

A general rule around Analysts' parts: never, ever give up three good arms for a player with a long history of overrated behavior at the plate. The Cubs were hellbent on signing Rafael Furcal this winter, and when the Dodgers surprisingly inked him, the Cubs acted quickly and irrationally. Last year was his worst season as a Major Leaguer, making the Cubs trade look like even more of a panic move. Pierre's baserunning has helped shadow the fact that he is not a very good hitter, despite a fantastic ability to beat out a lot of groundballs. And no, he's not really a player that will make up for defensive inefficiencies in the field, as Pierre no longer can boast of great defense. Too many Cub fans will likely be wowed of Pierre's ability to bunt for a single or steal a base, but we just hope Pierre doesn't prevent the Cubs' front office from using Felix Pie when he's ready.

OF: Darin Erstad, Los Angeles Angels

Erstad was our all-OOPs first baseman last year. Heck, he could probably make our squad at any position. Once upon a time, the man affectionately known as Ersty was a very good offensive player. Hard to believe now but the former Nebraska Cornhusker hit .355 with 240 hits (including 70 XBH) and 100 RBI from the #1 hole in 2000. His OBP and SLG exceeded .400 and .500, respectively. He won't sniff .300/.350/.400 this year and, as such, is a lock to ensure that the all-OOPs team is once again represented by a hustling, scrappy, aggressive, all-out (so to speak) player who just so happens to wear eye black and favor the unshaven look.

Honorable Mention: Joey Gathright, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

That's about it, folks. OOPs, I guess we left out a DH. Any suggestions?

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The wait is over. In a matter of hours, the newest season of baseball will begin the way it ended -- with the White Sox attempting to pitch their way to victory.

Over the course of the last six weeks, we have attempted to preview each division in a detailed fashion. Here's a quick link to each of those Two on Twos:

AL Central: Aaron and Cheat
NL Central: Larry and John
AL West: Blez and Rob
NL West: Jon and Geoff
AL East: Cliff and Sully
NL East: Mac and Jeremy

Thanks again to all the participants. As a final cherry-on-top to finish our 2006 Season Preview package, we wanted to go over all the categories not yet covered. Before we get to that, however, here's a review of our 8 picks to make the playoffs:

Next is a look at our picks for the major awards:

Now onto the fun stuff. Below we have created another three categories which might be of interest. The first is the OOPs MVP (OOPs = Overrated Offensive Player), given annually to the player with the highest batting average while posting below average on-base and slugging percentages. Next, as we did last year, are the guesses for the first manager to be fired. The last category is a guess at who will win the minor league player of the year award. Our picks:

While Barry Bonds might be garnering most of the veteran press this spring, we believe Roger Clemens will be the major subplot of the 2006 season. In honor of that belief, here is a series of categories dedicated to the Rocket. We asked each other whether or not Clemens will play this year, and if so, for what team and on which date he will begin.

And as is only appropriate, we close today with our picks for the World Series. Sure, sure, neither of us had even considered the White Sox last year, but we're both sure we nailed it this year.

Let us know your own predictions in the comments and have a wonderful day away from work and glued to the television!

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The Two on Two series stay on the right coast and concludes with the NL East. Here with us today to preview the division that the Atlanta Braves have owned for the past decade are Mac Thomason of Braves Journal and Jeremy Heit of Metsgeek.

Is this the year that the Tomahawk chops or drops? For the answers to this question and a whole lot more, read on...

Bryan: Mac, to start off this chat, I have to ask you: did Bobby Cox sell his soul to the devil? That's the only answer I have for the Braves winning the division again in 2005, given their injuries and lackluster (preseason) outfield.

Mac: It's been speculated. Part of it is that Bobby (even before he met up with Leo Mazzone) always has gotten better than expected efforts from his pitchers, and kept them healthy. Another is that he keeps a stable clubhouse, more than any contemporary manager, and so players are kept in a state of "relaxed readiness."

Bryan: Whatever it is, the Braves certainly got the most out of their talent again last year. Things didn't turn out the same way in New York, did they Jeremy?

Jeremy: No, not quite. It was a promising year in some respects though. David Wright's continued rise to super-stardom, Pedro Martinez's great year and both Cliff Floyd and Jose Reyes staying healthy.

Bryan: Definitely. And while the Mets didn't spend a lot of time in contention, the Braves did have to fight off runs by the Marlins and Phillies. Could two organizations possibly have gone in more different directions in one winter?

Rich: Are you talking about the Mets and Braves? Or the Marlins and Phillies? The Mets appear to be making a push for it now, while the Braves seem content on going with their youth. The Marlins are restocking--something I don't necessarily disagree with--and the Phillies might be betwixt and between.

Mac: Well, the Braves can't spend like the Mets, but they don't have to, because of the depth the farm system has recently developed. Still, the Braves were actually as stable as they've been in several years, the only major move in the ML roster being Edgar Renteria in for Rafael Furcal. Other than SBs, they're actually very similar offensive players.

Jeremy: On the other hand, the Mets can spend, and as Omar Minaya has shown the last two offseasons, he loves to do that. They were essential moves though. The Carlos Delgado trade gives the Mets their first bona fide hitter at the 1B position since John Olerud. And Billy Wagner gives them the shut-down closer they lacked last year late in games with Braden Looper. Omar also liked to stay active throughout the off-season with smaller trades, some of which were better than others.

Bryan: The most interesting tactic I saw from the Mets this winter was the Johnny Damon-type acquisitions. Hurt your rivals while making yourself stronger.

Jeremy: Yes they did. The acquisition of Billy Wagner from the Phillies forced them to have to downgrade to Tom Gordon, while the Mets were also able to take advantage of the Marlins and use their money to get Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca while giving up solid prospects, but not top-tier ones, namely Lastings Milledge.

Mac: Well, I should point out that this strategy dates back to Tom Glavine, though that didn't work out so well for the Mets. Though they certainly need a good effort from Tommy this year.

Jeremy: Well, last year's second half revival from Tommy gives the Mets hope that he can provide that kind of performance for a full year. For the first time as a Met, he consistently at least attempted to throw some inside pitches while mixing in a curveball. I'm fairly confident he will give the Mets what they need from him this year, though for the first part of the contract, you are correct, it did not work out that well.

Bryan: That is not true, however, for Pedro Martinez, who was dazzling in his Mets debut. Pedro is really the only (current) star on this staff, so I have to ask: is his toe the most important body part in baseball?

Jeremy: It definitely is to me, though that is quite biased. If it isn't the most important, it is definitely one of the tops. The Mets need a top-notch performance from Pedro to anchor the staff to have a chance to contend for the NL East title

Mac: I agree, though Tim Hudson's oblique muscle is a strong second, even though I'm not quite sure where it is. As an aside, I felt that the Mets were a little too blase about the bottom of their rotation considering all the other moves they made.

Bryan: Let's talk about the rest of the Met pitching staff. The decision to move Aaron Heilman to the bullpen is one, I think, that won't make it to June. He's too good for that.

Mac: I think there may be a bit of a reverse-Fenway (or now, reverse-Coors) effect there, where they're overrating some of their pitchers and underrating their hitters -- though their bad hitters were still pretty bad. For the life of me, I don't know what Peterson sees in Victor Zambrano.

Jeremy: Neither does any Met fan. I also disagree completely with the Bannister/Heilman move, though I'm not sure he will make it back to the rotation by June. If Steve Trachsel doesn't pitch well, Victor Zambrano bombs out or Bannister fails, I could see the Mets going after a pitcher at the deadline instead of moving Heilman back. Omar seems fixated on a strong bullpen, moving Heilman back there even after he traded away two starting pitchers just to get relief help.

Mac: You really need another lefty, you want Horacio Ramirez?

Rich: Hey, Mac...you mean the guy you like to call HomeRam?

Bryan: Problem is, Minaya simply doesn't have a lot of chips from which to deal.

Jeremy: It's a huge problem. Lastings Milledge is the chip, and he is, by all accounts, an untouchable.

Bryan: Moving to the offense, there is another player with whom his contract's start looks to be a disappointment: Carlos Beltran. Is he simply an example of being intimidated by New York?

Jeremy: It is quite tough to say. On one hand, he definitely seems liked he was pressing at the plate. But, you must remember, he played with a quad injury for a great deal of the year. I think he'll be OK this year, but that may be the optimist in me. His numbers will never look as good as they did in KC and Houston, just because of the Shea park effects. I also think if Willie Randolph bats him second, that will be a huge help to him.

Mac: I thought at the time that the Beltran signing was a mistake and that the Mets should have gone after Delgado then, because they had Mike Cameron, who's what, 95 percent of Beltran at his best? And was far better last year. At the same time, Beltran wasn't that bad -- not good, but for a CF with his defense he was a positive contributor even with a below-average OPS.

Bryan: Well, they sort of made up for that mistake by signing Delgado, who should have a big year. Say what you will, but not many teams can match a four hitter combination (including Beltran) like the Mets have.

Jeremy: Unfortunately, it's the other four hitters and their production that worries me with the Mets.

Mac: I loved Willie Randolph as a player, Yankee or no, but I can't believe that a guy with his playing skills thinks Jose Reyes should be leading off.

Bryan: Yeah, no matter how Willie wants to twist and contort Reyes, he's a different player than Jimmy Rollins.

Jeremy: Unfortunately, who else would they have lead off? Beltran? LoDuca? The other options don't seem that appealing. If Reyes ever learns some pitch selection, which is a big IF, he would be a fine lead-off man because of what he can do with his speed on the bases. Unfortunately, for now, while he is still working on that, it is on-the-job training in the 1 spot.

Bryan: Alright guys, let's move onto Rollins and the Phillies. After a long tenure hanging mostly in the middle of the division, Philadelphia enters the year with a new GM and a few new pieces. What do you make of the Phillies this year?

Mac: I take the Phillies very seriously; I picked them to win the wild card over the Mets by a game or two. Everyone's writing them off because they lost Billy Wagner, but the difference between him and Gordon can't be more than a game or two. And they get Ryan Howard in the lineup for a full season, and they don't have any real lineup holes -- not everyone's a star, but nobody will kill them.

Jeremy: I have the Mets barely edging out the Phillies for the wild card, but I agree with Mac. I really like their lineup and feel that if they put both Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd in the rotation over Ryan Franklin, they could have a very solid starting staff. It just seems to me this team always tends to underachieve, and I can't shake that notion in having them not make the playoffs this year.

Bryan: Madson seems to be in a similar spot to Aaron Heilman. He's totally not being utilized to his full potential.

Mac: They also have a really serious park effect there, and I don't think they have a handle on the quality of their starters, who aren't great but aren't bad either.

Bryan: Personally, I think their downfall might be that bullpen, because outside of Madson, I don't see a lot to like. Gordon and Arthur Rhodes are risky people to depend upon.

Jeremy: Arthur Rhodes usually seems to be OK as long as he isn't facing the mythical aura behind the 9th inning and closing. I think it will be interesting to see how Gordon performs as a closer after years of setting up Mariano Rivera.

Mac: He has 116 career saves, which is more than the entire Braves' bullpen. I'd be more worried about the plunge he had in his strikeout numbers last year.

Bryan: As far as the offense goes, all the early season hype will be aimed at Rollins and his streak. But I think the other players up the middle are the key to the Philly offense.

Mac: Chase Utley terrifies me. He's the scariest player in the division to a Braves fan, not Delgado or Miguel Cabrera. By the end of the season, certain Braves pitchers just walked Utley if there was anyone on base. And I believe one of those pitchers was John Smoltz, which gives you some idea.

Jeremy: As for Aaron Rowand, I think he'll give them a solid bat, but his defensive contribution will be enormous.

Bryan: They need it with Pat Burrell in left covering about 20 feet, and Abreu's range is decreasing a bit in right.

Rich: Which Bobby Abreu is going to show up this year? The one before he won the HR derby at the All-Star game or the guy who hit .260 with six dingers in the second half?

Bryan: Sooner or later the game's most underrated player is going to head for decline, but I do believe he will be solid this year. This is much like the Phillies this year, a team that is well balanced all around, but special in no particular area.

Jeremy: I agree, which is why even though a lot of the talk in the division focuses on the Mets and Braves, the Phillies could definitely be dangerous.

Mac: About right. They've won 86 games three times in the last five seasons and 88 last year. I expect about the same.

Bryan: Alright, let's move onto the Marlins, who are special in one area: the youth. Florida's firesale will certainly hurt their W-L record and attendance, but what do you guys see it doing in the long term?

Mac: I think that there's a comment in Baseball Prospectus about all the Marlins' moves being defensible individually, it's just that all at once they're a disaster. Still, they have the best player in the division (Cabrera), maybe the best pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and probably the best short-term prospect (Jeremy Hermida), which is a nice base.

Bryan: And the sight of Joe Girardi managing from a Major League bench is enough to keep me entertained.

Mac: Until Torre re-signs him for the stretch run.

Jeremy: There is definitely a nice young base, but what happens when they have to start paying these guys? It just seems like the Marlins will forever be in this type of cycle.

Bryan: Yeah, it seems like the Marlins need a new city and another new ownership group. If they trade Miguel Cabrera at year's end, as some have rumored, the ship will have officially sunk.

Mac: Well, one World Series win every few years looks pretty good to me at this point, and I expect to you, too.

Bryan: One thing I want to focus on is the fact that the Marlins used their trades to stockpile pitchers, viewing it as a depleted market. Though their outfield looks even worse than the Braves did in March last year, is this the type of methodology that will pay off?

Mac: It's probably easier to find outfielders than pitchers, though young pitching is such a risky market I can't really approve of gutting the team in exchange for it.

Jeremy: I think it is one of those wait and see things. As Mac says, young pitching is a risky market. I'm a big fan of Yusmeiro Petit and think he'll end up as a solid middle of the rotation starter, but a guy like Gabby Hernandez is so far away that who knows at this point.

Bryan: Well, let's talk about what they have this year. Are the likes of Jason Vargas and Sergio Mitre enough to give Joe Girardi a respectable club?

Mac: Their starting rotation might be okay. Willis is great, of course, Brian Moehler's not really a #2, but he's not bad in the middle of the rotation, Vargas and Mitre are adequate. The bullpen looks pretty thin, though, and they can't really afford to rush the kids to fill that hole.

Jeremy: I don't think there is much of a chance. This team just doesn't have enough pitching behind Dontrelle Willis, who looked quite shaky in the WBC himself. They have some interesting young hitters beyond Cabrera like Mike Jacobs, Hanley Ramirez and Hermida, but I just don't see it happening. Too many holes.

Mac: And they have probably the worst infield in baseball. Jacobs is the only one who looks half-competent. They have Wes Helms at third base, whom I've seen enough of, thank you.

Rich: I don't expect fans will see much of Helms at the hot corner this year, not with Cabrera around.

Bryan: While I agree with Jeremy about the holes, there is something about young managers/former catchers that seem to maximize effort from their players. That, I say, belongs to the Nationals.

Jeremy: I happen to disagree and think the Nationals will finish higher than the Marlins, but I don't think it will be by that much. I just don't understand what Jim Bowden has been thinking all off-season, which was culminated by the Ryan Church decision a couple of days ago.

Mac: I thought that the environment in Washington, which basically makes any pitcher look okay, would be one where Bowden could thrive. He always could find good hitters in Cincy, it was just that he couldn't tell a pitcher from a hole in the ground. But he seems to have lost the eye for hitters as well.

Bryan: Yeah, he's versatile. I agree with Rob Neyer that the Alfonso Soriano trade could end up as one of the worst of all-time, and the Church move is a head scratcher. This was a Rookie of the Year candidate last June.

Mac: Nobody looks good in that situation but the Rangers. Soriano is not a good enough hitter for an outfield corner anyway, and he'll probably hit about five homers at home this year.

Jeremy: The whole entire Soriano thing has been a debacle from the actual trade to the whole spring training spat.

Bryan: Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson and Jose Guillen are all solid on the corners, but you have to really squint to see a successful offense here.

Mac: And the good hitters they have (Johnson and Guillen) are fragile. I mean, Guillen actually caught a wrist injury from Johnson.

Jeremy: I really like Zimmerman and I think he'll have quite a nice year, so much so that he'll end up as the rookie of the year. But, the offense is suspect outside of him, Guillen and Johnson. Because, what can they expect out of Jose Vidro this year?

Bryan: An injury to Vidro and then the Soriano thing is really going to blow up.

Jeremy: The pitching will be interesting. I'm a fan of John Patterson, but behind him and Livan... Ramon Ortiz? Tony Armas? When does he ever stay healthy?

Mac: I know I've said this before, but it's certain that Bowden doesn't understand park effects, and that his pitching (other than Patterson) wasn't very good last year. Livan was the definition of "league average innings eater".

Rich: Well, he ate...scratch that...he pitched a lot of innings last year. A MLB-leading 246 1/3, to be exact.

Bryan: Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, John Patterson and Chad Cordero are the types you build around, but they simply have the wrong man to execute any rebuilding process.

Rich: I'm not defending Bowden by any means here. But it's tough to run a franchise when you don't have a real owner. I mean, no matter what you do in life, you need a time horizon. The Nationals don't know if they are coming or going.

Bryan: This is, of course, the opposite situation as to what we see in Atlanta, with one of the game's best GMs. This winter, however, Schuerholz was probably able to take some time off thanks to his great farm system.

Mac: Well, he did make the Marte-for-Renteria trade, which I didn't really like but won't hurt the team in the short term. He traded Johnny Estrada, who he didn't need anymore, for a couple of pitchers who might help. Other than that, he stood pat. I think that the hope is that some of the rookies from last year will improve and give the Joneses some help. And that Chipper stays relatively healthy.

Bryan: Yeah, the ability that the Braves could stand pat was that fantastic group of youth. Francoeur is the first name that comes to mind but there is a good chance he is outperformed by Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann, who I think is on the cusp of a monster season.

Mac: McCann was actually my favorite of the group, though I like Johnson a lot too, and Francoeur should be great down the road.

Jeremy: I am afraid of Francoeur. As a Met fan, I get this feeling he is the next Chipper Jones. I know he has issues in his game, but he just seems so natural sometimes.

Mac: The player Francoeur gets compared to is Dale Murphy, but he reminds me more of Juan Gonzalez. Same holes in his game, same just freaky power. Remember, Juan Gone was a CF in his youth. He doesn't even really need to walk, just lay off the really bad pitches.

Jeremy: He has such great power and such a strong arm in rightfield. I think the Braves will be fine when it comes to finding hitters, especially now that Matt Diaz can see out of both eyes.

Bryan: The rookies also will be balanced with a solid crop of veterans. Andruw and Chipper Jones are about the two easiest players to depend on ever, and Edgar Renteria should be solid in his return to the NL.

Mac: What worries me is that if Adam LaRoche struggles again they'll wait too long to pull the trigger without Julio Franco in reserve.

Rich: Well, Julio has hung in there for at least five more years than anyone could have reasonably expected ten years ago. He's kind of like the Energizer Bunny or, heck, the Braves. He just keeps going and going and going. But, like the Braves, you have to wonder how long either will last.

Bryan: The question really isn't the offense, it's the pitching. Mac, I wonder what type of impact you think Mazzone's loss will bring to the club?

Mac: A lot of the pitchers were relieved to see him go, it seems, because he was hard on them. What I hope is that they'll respond well for a time with the pressure off. What I fear is that they'll fall into bad habits. Not Smoltz and Hudson, but the kids.

Jeremy: It will be quite interesting to me to see what happens. I hope, as a Met fan, that Leo leaving means a regression in the Braves pitching performance, but Roger McDowell seems like a solid pitching coach and the young kids still have Smoltz and Hudson to look up to.

Bryan: I actually like this pitching staff better than most, because I see quite a bit of depth. If Thomson or Ramirez don't perform well, in steps Davies or James; if Chris Reitsma struggles, how about Joey Devine or Blaine Boyer?

Mac: I figure Reitsma will be Reitsma. He will be good for a few weeks, then he will struggle, and Devine will take the job. Hopefully, he can hold it and the revolving door will stop.

Rich: The Braves need Smoltz to be Smoltz because Hudson is no longer Hudson. And Thomson, Sosa, and Ramirez are no better than league average as far as #3-5 go.

Mac: What really worries me is that we're in a division with Delgado, Floyd, Howard, Utley, and Abreu and we have one southpaw starter, who isn't very good and gives up lots of homers.

Jeremy: I really wouldn't be shocked to see Ramirez displaced at some point this season. I just don't see him pitching well at all this year. But, as you note Bryan, the Braves have young starters ready to step in.

Mac: I like Davies a lot, as does Cox, and the Braves are going to do something (a trade, or a move of Sosa or Thomson to the pen) to get him in the rotation.

Bryan: It's just that, on contrast to last year, this Atlanta team seems to have some nice depth. Has to be comforting, eh Mac?

Mac: Depth is great. I really like the bench they've assembled, which for the first time in forever doesn't have any useless players. Wilson Betemit is probably one of the best bench players in baseball, one who really should be starting somewhere. But the Braves need him to insure against an injury to Chipper or Renteria. If Francouer struggles, Diaz or Johnson can step in. If McCann flops or gets hurt, they have Jarrod Saltalamacchia in wait.

Jeremy: The depth the Braves have scares me a lot because their injury concerns can be more easily taken care of then someone, say, like the Mets, who have pretty much depleted their starting pitching depth.

Mac: The only really irreplaceable player is Andruw Jones, but he never leaves the lineup.

Bryan: So much has to be said about the Braves ability to develop players. Their starting lineup is almost entirely made of homegrown players, which speaks volumes.

Mac: In an interleague game last year, the Braves had ten homegrown players in the lineup, seven of them rookies.

Bryan: Alright guys, let's finish it off with some division predictions. How do you guys see it finishing, 1-5?

Mac: Braves, Phillies (WC), Mets, Marlins, Natspos. The first three teams will be within five or six games. The last two will be about 30 games back.

Jeremy: Braves, Mets (WC), Phillies, Nationals, Marlins. Like Mac, I think the first three are tight and the last two are way behind.

Bryan: I must admit that I came into the chat ready to pick the Mets, but I'm going to go with the Braves first. Mets (WC), Phillies, Marlins and Nats for me.

Rich: I thought I was going to like the Mets a couple of months ago. But they still have too many holes in my mind. I think this division is much weaker than most. That said, I'm going with the Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals, and Marlins.

Mac: I wouldn't really be surprised by any order for the first three, only if one of them was way off.

Permalink | Comments (4)

Today, the Two on Two previews move from one coast to the other (sorry, Texas). Left to right across your computer screen. With us today to discuss the AL East are Cliff Corcoran of Bronx Banter and Patrick Sullivan of The House That Dewey Built. Cliff and Patrick (aka Sully) joined us last year and are the first pair to repeat as guests in our series.

When it comes to the AL East, some might call such a chat a review rather than a preview. Pull up a chair and find out what the four of us have to say about the Yankees and Red Sox. Oh, and the other three teams, too.

AL Central
NL Central
NL West
AL West

Rich: Last year, Boston and New York finished the regular season tied, yet New York was awarded the division title due to winning their season series. Fair or unfair?

Cliff: As it turned out it was irrelevant. Neither team got home field advantage during the ALDS because Boston lost the tiebreaker with the Yankees and was forced to settle for the Wild Card and the Yankees lost another tiebreaker with the also 95-67 Los Angeles de Los Angeles de Anaheim. Then both teams lost in the first round. In fact, the only real impact it had, other than bragging rights for fans of the now eight-consecutive-time AL East Champion Yankees was that the Red Sox were able to claim Hee Seop Choi off waivers before the Yankees got their shot because the tiebreaker put the Sox ahead of the Yanks in the waiver order.

Patrick: I sort of just thought the season series gave them a seeding tiebreaker (so to speak). The benefits of determining a champion the traditional way, with a playoff, are not worth jeopardizing teams' pitching staffs when both have already qualified anyway. But then, I am a fan of the team that lost the tiebreaker.

Rich: I wonder how Joe McCarthy, Miller Huggins, and Casey Stengel feel about running AL East pennants up the flagpole at Yankee Stadium?

Cliff: You know, I've been at the last three home openers and I'm not sure they actually do that. I think they only run up AL and World Champion flags, but I'm not 100 percent sure.

Patrick: An AL East championship is grounds for a Kevin Millar hoe-down up here.

Cliff: Not anymore.

Patrick: Mercifully.

Cliff: For both of us. If only he went to the NL.

Rich: OK, now that we have settled last year's score, let's take a look at how the AL East is shaping up this year.

Patrick: Well, I think the Yanks and Sox are the definite class of the division again, but Toronto is not far behind. Boston has a wider variance in outcomes both to the upside and the down, but New York looks more solid at this point to me.

Cliff: Yeah, I don't think much has changed. The Yanks and Sox are very tight, they'll likely finish a close one-two, but either could collapse. Toronto, despite making a lot of noise, isn't meaningfully better, and the Orioles will disappoint anyone who expects them to win more than 75 games. If anything's changed, it's that the Devil Rays suddenly have a pretty nifty offense, which actually isn't all that different from the second half of 2005.

Bryan: It's been a long, long while since the division has had any change, Cliff. Is the philosophy we saw from the Blue Jays this winter going to help them do anything but draw more fans?

Cliff: There was a philosophy there? All I saw them do is spend money. But to answer your question, no.

Patrick: Cliff and I disagree on the Jays. I am not sure how an 88-win Pythag team like the 2005 Jays makes the changes they did and doesn't make some real noise in the division.

Cliff: The thing that's most overlooked about the 2006 Jays is the loss of Orlando Hudson. Having a healthy Roy Halladay for a full season will go a long way, but their bullpen and the remainder of their rotation, especially Mr. Gustavo Chacin will see a significant regression as a result of both natural correction (most of the pen was way over it's head last year), and due to the loss of Hudson's defense behind them. That will reduce their run prevention and cut into that impressive Pythagorean showing.

Patrick: Fair points...but a full year of Halladay and the additions more than make up Chacin's regression and Hudson's absence. Also, Jason Frasor, Vinny Chulk and Justin Speier are all live arms setting up B.J. Ryan. Scott Schoeneweis is a pretty good LOOGY too.

Rich: Wow, Chacin hasn't gotten this much press since his birth announcement!

Cliff: Chulk's K/9 dropped to 4.88 last year and Schoeneweis is an established mediocrity (career: 5.02 ERA, 5.13 K/9, 3.52 BB/9). A.J. Burnett is already hurt. Troy Glaus was a bat they needed, but other than him and Ryan, whom I view as a guy headed for a collapse just due to his mechanics, I don't see much added value.

Rich: I'm not suggesting that Toronto has caught and passed the Yankees and Red Sox, but I wouldn't dismiss them either. Cliff, was that you really saying that "all Toronto does is spend money?"

Cliff: Yeah yeah, who is the Yankee fan to talk? I get it. But where's the plan in what Toronto did this offseason? They overpaid wildly for the initial boys and two of their four major acquisitions have nasty injury histories. Besides which, why throw money at Bengie Molina when they had a smart inexpensive option with Gregg Zaun?

Patrick: I don't dispute that their plan is a bit tough to discern. But I am really just concerned with their 2006 chances at this point, and they look pretty good to me.

Rich: I thought the Yankees signed Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, no?

Cliff: We're not talking about the Yankees, we're talking about the Blue Jays. I don't work for the Yankees, you know. I'll tell you what I do like about the Jays going into the season. Their duel platoons in the outfield corners (Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson in left, Alexis Rios and Eric Hinske in right), is a fantastic way of maximizing their resources. That is, if Hinske can actually play the outfield.

Bryan: It's hard not to like that whole offense, but I agree that Hinske in right and Hudson not at second will do damage to their defense. In a long season it's the little things that make the difference, and a decline in defense and lack of depth might be what kills Toronto.

Patrick: Sure I'd agree with that. I happen to think they will come in third, but I also think a division title is just as likely as a sub-80 win season.

Rich: I don't think Toronto will be 16-31 in one-run games this year. How much better they will be than last year, I'm not sure. But they won't be worse.

Bryan: One team many are choosing to drop a bit in the standings -- though I don't necessarily agree -- is the Red Sox. Is this a transition year in Boston, or has management found a way to mix youth with a winner in 2006?

Patrick: I think Boston has done a nice job putting a good team on the field for 2006 while making sure their future remains bright. They have added two cost-controlled mid-20's contributors in Josh Beckett and Coco Crisp and two other young role players in Hee Seop Choi and Wily Mo Pena. With respect to whether or not they have found a winner, if they can win 95 games with Curt Schilling posting a 77 ERA+ and Keith Foulke a 75 ERA+, then they will be just fine.

Cliff: Beckett's injury history concerns me as much as Burnett's, as does the fact that both are leaving that roomy pitchers park in Miami for high-run environments. But as I said up top, I think the Red Sox will hang with the Yankees all year. What I find most interesting about Boston right now is that they have tremendous depth on the bench and in the bullpen, but some shaky starters, primarily on the left side of the infield and in the rotation.

Rich: Hmmm. I think Boston's starting rotation is actually pretty good. They go six deep by my math. I would take Beckett over any starter in the division this side of Halladay and Randy Johnson. I think he will be just fine. Remember, he is additive to the team that won 95 games last year.

Bryan: I think Beckett is on the short list of AL Cy Young candidates, but I also think this team will be better once they realize Jon Lester over David Wells, Craig Hansen over Keith Foulke, and Dustin Pedroia over Alex Gonzalez.

Cliff: Exactly.

Patrick: I don't see much evidence that Lester is ready to supplant Wells. I do think we will see Hansen at some point this year and I am not sure on Pedroia. But I am comfortable that Alex Gonzalex can at least replicate what Edgar Renteria contributed to last year's club.

Rich: I wouldn't hold it against the Red Sox this year that they have one of the best groups of prospects in all of baseball. These guys will just make Boston that much stronger in 2007 and beyond.

Bryan: There is no doubt about that. Boston has the brightest future of anyone in the division, I think. But in terms of 2006, I still believe the Red Sox aren't utilizing these prospects enough. I'm not faulting Boston's developmental department, which should now be lauded as one of the Majors best, but for the trust issues they still have in some youth. That could change in a few months, though.

Cliff: Agreed, I'd be surprised if Gonzalez lasts past the All-Star break and if Hansen isn't back with the big club by then. Speaking of which, the Sox should ditch J.T. Snow in favor of Choi (whom is reportedly ticketed for triple-A because he has options left) yesterday.

Patrick: The Sox have a phenomenal roster. We will see if Terry Francona can do a better job of using it then last year.

Rich: His job in terms of filling out the lineup card should be rather simple in my mind. Pena or Choi should be starting every game. Period. But they should never both start the same game.

Bryan: Let's move onto another organization with a bright future, guys, the Devil Rays. It's hard for ownership to keep telling their fans to be patient, but this winter seems to have shown there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

Cliff: Everyone made a big deal about how the Yankees kept losing to the D-Rays last year, but they all ignored the fact that the Rays had one of the best offenses in baseball after the All-Star break and one of the best second-half records in the American League. That offense will only improve this season with Joey Gathright finally getting a starting job. Their pitching, however, is another story entirely.

Patrick: The Devil Rays need pitching badly. When they get a little bit, they'll be competitive. Until then, they won't. I think Scott Kazmir's progress will be interesting this season. Victor Zambrano's on the other hand, won't.

Cliff: That trade just keeps killing the Mets. They traded Jae Seo to make room for Victor Zambrano? Brutal.

Bryan: Rich's K/100P stat tells us that Kazmir's path to stardom is right around the bend. Still, Kazmir becoming an ace won't hide the fact that a rotation needs 4, or at least 3, other starters.

Cliff: I read something anecdotal about Seth McClung correcting a mechanical flaw this spring related to how he moves his glove hand through his motion that has supposedly yielded fantastic results, but I'll believe it when I see it over a full season. Second to that, Casey Fossum had solid peripherals last year, but I find it hard to believe that he's become a front-line starter.

Rich: Tampa Bay's pitchers, for the most part, are young and inexperienced. They have some good arms in the system though that should yield decent results down the road.

Bryan: And, for the first time in ages, the new Devil Rays front office makes me believe Tampa actually knows they have a lack of pitching depth. This alone speaks volumes.

Rich: Well, Bryan, the Devil Rays are likely to get a top-flight pitcher in this year's draft, which, as you so well know, is full of pitching talent.

Bryan: Yes, and I'm looking forward to them making better draft day decisions than Wade Townsend.

Patrick: Well, with the competent offense Cliff alluded to earlier and guys like Delmon Young and B.J. Upton on the way, this offense doesn't figure to slow down for years to come.

Rich: I think Tampa Bay is going to be a really fun team to watch. I would be a bit worried if I was a Baltimore fan.

Cliff: Hey, any of you guys still high on the Orioles? Heh.

Patrick: I still maintain that if Erik Bedard and Rodrigo Lopez had stayed healthy, that team could have been much, much different. Sometimes a thing or two goes wrong and the wheels come off. The O's were not as good as they started out nor were they as bad as they finished.

Rich: I agree. The Orioles spent most of the first three months last year in first place. It's too bad they didn't get paid "lap money." An injury here and an injury there, the fallout of Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro, the firing of the manager, and Miguel Tejada's lack of interest and production in the second half (.276/.322/.416) was just too much to overcome.

Patrick: But I have given up the good fight. Despite upside potential from Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera, they stink.

Cliff: Welcome back to Earth, Sully. The Orioles are one of the worst franchises in baseball and have been for the better part of a decade.

Bryan: Things are at least looking a bit better for the O's this year, however, thanks to the loss of Sosa and Palmiero. Brian Roberts won't give the same production, but even Nick Markakis can be better than Sosa.

Rich: It makes no sense to put Markakis on the 25-man roster at this point, especially if he's not going to start. And what's up with heading north with just two catchers, when one of them (Javy Lopez) is supposedly going to play first base and DH?

Patrick: So many questions about the way the Orioles go about their business. Kevin Millar is all I have to say.

Cliff: Actually, that's the answer to the second part of Rich's question. They say Kevin Millar will be their emergency catcher. As for the first part, from what I've heard, Markakis is going to start in center. If that's true, it means that Luis Matos is out of a job, or that the soon-to-be 40-year-old Jeff Conine will be riding pine. If I'm an Orioles fan, I'm hoping for the former.

Bryan: One thing we can probably depend on, thanks to Leo Mazzone, is an improved pitching staff, even with the loss of B.J. Ryan.

Rich: Yes, our good friend JC Bradbury has studied the Mazzone Effect and concluded that, on average, Leo lowers staff ERAs by 0.60 runs per game. If that holds true this year, the O's would give up 100 fewer runs (which works out to 10 wins)!

Patrick: A part of me wants to really believe in these O's. Their offense should be good and their pitching improved with considerable upside in the lefty/righty tandem of Bedard and Cabrera I just think too much can go wrong with these guys. They rely too much on oldish players and their stars are on the decline.

Cliff: I couldn't find this offense you were talking about last year and I can't find it this year either. Mora's coming back to earth, Roberts has already done the same, hitting .274/.351/.419 after the All-Star break last year before his catastrophic elbow injury. That puts all the weight on Tejada and he showed last year that he's not willing to bear that burden. Meanwhile, Mazzone may help the starters, but their pen is falling apart. I'm bullish on Chris Ray as a closer, but Aaron Rakers just hit the 60-day DL with a labrum injury. Todd Williams is already hurt. There's just not much there for Mazzone to work with.

Rich: Well, he has worked wonders in the past with guys like Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson. A starting staff of Bedard, Cabrera, Bruce Chen, Lopez, and Benson isn't the worst in the league.

Bryan: It also isn't the best, which, despite a lot of failures, the Yankees have worked hard at building towards. Last year the rotation wasn't very good at all; do we think that could change this year?

Cliff: The Yankees' rotation is a mess, to be completely honest, but it's a deep mess, and that may be it's saving grace. Johnson should improve despite his age. Chien-Ming Wang could as well. Both he and Shawn Chacon have shown indications this spring that they'll be missing more bats this year -- Wang via his heater, Chacon via his nasty sea-level curve and a fine change. After that, you get into the injury concerns: Mike Mussina (elbow), Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano (any and everything). But what most folks don't realize is that the Yankees have a nice trio of 25-year-old starters in Columbus in Matt DeSalvo, Darrell Rasner (a gift from Jim Bowden) and Sean Henn. Expect one of those guys to be this year's Chien-Ming.

Rich: For the Yankees' sake, let's just hope they don't wing the wang number when they call for help in Columbus.

Patrick: Well Cliff's got all the contingency plans covered but I think the Yanks have a lot of problems on the pitching side of things. I don't see another Aaron Small coming down the pike for them. I do, however, think Randy Johnson is going to have a great year.

Cliff: Another Aaron Small won't come down the pike for anyone anytime soon. That was a major fluke.

Bryan: I'm a Johnson buyer too, but I don't even think Small himself will have a good year. The Yanks are almost a lock to be looking for pitching at the trade deadline, and you know everyone will want Eric Duncan or Phil Hughes.

Cliff: Sully, Bryan and I agree on Johnson. I also happen to think that the Kyle Farnsworth and eventually Octavio Dotel combo will give them a devastating Big Three in the bullpen, which could ease the burden on their starters, who had no room for error last year.

Rich: I like Farnsworth but will be watching closely to see if he can handle the pressure of the Big Apple. Dotel is nothing more than a crapshoot at this stage. However, it doesn't get mo better than Mariano Rivera.

Cliff: Meanwhile they've got the best offense Joe Torre's ever had.

Patrick: Well, the Yanks offense is going to pound again but I really don't get the 1,000-run offense talk I hear from the talking heads. Johnny Damon helps, but everyone in the lineup except Robinson Cano is another year past their prime. It's a very good offense, but not an historic one by any stretch.

Cliff: Certainly not, though it would be better if Bernie Williams was retired and Andy Phillips was the DH.

Rich: The Yankees have a lot of big names in their lineup. Damon, for one. I've got Coco Crisp over Damon this year in OPS+. Any takers?

Cliff: Damon will be hurt by leaving Fenway, that's for sure, and Crisp is still climbing toward his peak. I'm not going to fight you on that.

Bryan: Not from this end. But to the Yankees' credit, Damon is an improvement upon last year. The offense should be just about as good as last year, but I don't think it will be much better.

Cliff: Bryan, you wanna check Tony Womack's 2005 stats and get back to me on that one? Or John Flaherty's, for that matter?

Rich: The good news for the Yankees is that the offense doesn't need to be better. They scored the second most runs in baseball last year. This team can still mash.

Cliff: Still, runs on either side of the ball count toward the ultimate objective.

Bryan: Yes, the Yankees offense will be just fine even if it doesn't improve. It's all about whether the pitching staff can fight off a run from the Red Sox and even, yes Cliff, the Blue Jays.

Rich: Bryan just mentioned the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Is that how this division is going to finish (once again) this year?

Cliff: Yup, that's the top three, though I might put a larger gap between two and three than most. I'll mix it up with the bottom two, however. I think the D-Rays will slip past the O's and it will be a while before Baltimore manages to return the favor.

Patrick: Well, you guys know mine, same order as always: NYY-BOS-TOR-BAL-TB.

Bryan: I have been predicting the Sox to upend the Yanks for years. I think it will happen this year, with the Yanks finishing a close second. The Jays win 87 or so, while Tampa and Baltimore tie for last place.

Rich: I guess this really is a two on two. But it's different than I might have expected. I'm going to side with Bryan here--at least with respect to his top three teams. Boston, New York, Toronto, followed by Baltimore (one last time) and Tampa Bay.

Permalink | Comments (7)

Our season previews roll on today, as we stay out on the left coast to preview the AL West. In the hot seat with Rich and Bryan today are Tyler Bleszinski (Blez) from Athletics Nation and Rob McMillin from 6-4-2. Before we begin, here's a quick look at our previous division previews:

AL Central: Aaron and Cheat
NL Central: Larry and John
NL West: Jon and Geoff

And with that, away we go...

Bryan: Guys, in recent years this has become little more than a two-team division. Seattle and Texas have flirted with success in certain years, but neither come close to the recent consistency of the Angels and Athletics. Obviously, this speaks volumes about the abilities of Billy Beane as well as the Stoneman/Scioscia duo. This is a two-part question, first what gives those teams such great success (beyond Moneyball and Angel-speed cliches) and do you see anything over the horizon in Dallas and Seattle?

Tyler: I know Rob disagrees with me on this one, but I think Texas makes a jump this year. With Ian Kinsler coming in, a slight improvement in the rotation, Brad Wilkerson joining the team and a mashing offense that's built for that ballpark, I think they leapfrog the Angels this season. But not for long because the key to the Angels and A's success will largely be the draft and a solid farm system. And the Angels will rise again in 2007 with all of those great young kids they have.

Bryan: So success in the West is a product of proper player development?

Tyler: In the A's case, definitely. They had four players in their first full years -- Dan Johnson, Nick Swisher, Huston Street and Joe Blanton -- who were major contributors to their success last season. The Angels time is coming for their farm system to flex their muscles. In part, it will happen this year with Casey Kotchman and possibly Dallas McPherson.

Rich: I wouldn't bank on McPherson contributing much this year. He is unlikely to break camp with the club and will find it difficult unseating Chone Figgins at third unless, of course, Figgy returns to his role as a super sub again.

Rob: The 2004 and 2005 Angels won their respective divisions for almost completely different reasons; the 2004 squad because of its good offense (three players with 119 or more OPS+) and mediocre pitching, and the 2005 team almost exclusively because of its superior pitching. Unlike Tyler, I don't see the Rangers really contending until they figure out guys like Kevin Millwood aren't worth the kind of money the Rangers gave him and R.A. Dickey doesn't belong in any major league rotation until he can figure out how to get his knuckleball over the plate.

Tyler: The truth is that the Rangers have to overpay for pitching to get anyone to come to that ballpark.

Bryan: The Rangers are, like the Angels, at an advantage because of team payroll. However, this hasn't correlated to direct success. Is it just bad front office decision-making?

Rich: Well, there is a new sheriff in town -- and I don't mean Kevin Malone. John Hart stepped down as the team's general manager and Jon Daniels stepped up. At 28, Daniels is now the youngest GM in the game.

Tyler: I think the Rangers front office is making better decisions now. Getting rid of Alfonso Soriano in favor of Wilkerson was a very good move and Millwood, while they overpaid, will also help.

Rob: Yes, I think the Rangers are victims of some none-too-smart decisions. That doesn't mean they'll keep making them, though; like Tyler, I liked the move to unload Soriano to a GM dumb enough to force him to left without asking first. But I'm far from sold on the idea that the Rangers' pitching problem is mostly about money. Their park is hot -- always bad for pitching anyway -- and it has some well-known wind tunnels that conveniently happen to be jet streams in the power alleys.

Bryan: Yeah, some pitchers can succeed in the park, but it's tough to come up with a staff full of 'em.

Tyler: The Rangers major problem is that home ballpark. While it helps the offense become prolific, it's also scared off any potential pitchers since the Chan Ho Park debacle.

Rob: Even when they were a good team in the mid-late-90's, they never had superior pitching, but they had guys who could wallop the ball into Tierra del Fuego.

Tyler: One big mistake the Rangers made was letting go of Kenny Rogers. I understand why it had to be done, but he figured out how to pitch there when few have. And the Tigers paid too much to get him, but that's the market for starting pitching right now.

Rob: Totally agree on the Rogers situation, and that's why I think they won't contend -- Millwood hardly looks like a replacement for Mister Camera Smackdown Guy.

Bryan: Well, let's talk about the rotation they do have. Millwood will be an improvement at least, and Adam Eaton has big potential. At the back end, the Rangers are showing a touch of depth with Vicente Padilla and Kameron Loe.

Tyler: Eaton concerns me. He had scary bad stats last year at Petco Park, which many believe is the antithesis of Arlington. But the improvement should really come as a result of improvements in the overall team defense with Wilkerson and Kinsler there when talking about the rotation as well. Soriano was just brutal out there.

Rob: Kinsler may be an improvement -- we won't know until he actually plays at the major league level for a while. But I'll buy that, even if he's only league average, he'd be a big boon compared to the sieve that was Alfonso Soriano.

Bryan: Personally, I think the key to the Rangers will be the success of that bullpen. Francisco Cordero, Frank Francisco, Joaquin Benoit and Akinori Otsuka all need to pitch well for great success.

Tyler: I agree because of the nature of that ballpark. So many games are decided later. But the thing is, the Rangers don't need their pitchers to be perfect unlike the A's and possibly even the Angels because of their offense.

Rob: I don't know about that, Tyler. Between David Dellucci, Mark Teixeira, and Michael Young, you've got a fine lineup, and maybe throw in Wilkerson if you think he can be a 120+ OPS+ guy. But it doesn't seem to me to be a recipe for winning anywhere else than Amerimash Park.

Tyler: You left out Hank Blalock, Rob. I know he didn't have the best year last season, but he's bound to improve this year.

Rich: It would be hard for Blalock not to improve on his numbers last year. He was just plain awful on the road (.231/.276/.335), in the second half (.236/.283/.375), and against lefties (.196/.228/.356). By the end of the year, southpaws were sending limousines for Blalock to make sure he made it to the away games on time.

Rob: PECOTA agrees with you, guys -- I guess Blalock's disappearance last year had fooled me into thinking he had peaked early, but at 25 it's unlikely.

Tyler: What could make a difference would be if the Rangers continue to play Rod Barajas over Gerald Laird. Even though Laird hasn't shown it yet (he's only played 81 games at the MLB level) he has the much higher ceiling offensively.

Bryan: The catching position is certainly their weakest position offensively. However, with 8 other solid spots in the lineup, good defense behind the plate might be more important.

Rob: Tyler -- could be. But I'm still skeptical; they have to keep runs off the board, and this is a pretty tattered pitching staff.

Bryan: Let's go from the division's worst staff to the best, the A's. With a deep rotation, 1-5, the A's will be difficult each day of the week.

Tyler: I'm not sure Rob would agree with that. The Angels have a quality rotation as well. But it's true, and the A's rotation is actually almost eight-nine starting pitchers deep now. For the first time in many, many years, the A's have replacements in case Rich Harden or another starting pitcher goes down. The A's have Kirk Saarloos, Joe Kennedy, Brad Halsey and even John Rheinecker or Chad Gaudin waiting in the wings in case of injury.

Rob: The A's have a good team this year, no doubt about it. In fact, I'm picking them to win the division. They have a good 1-4 and a fifth starter who could be a number three on some second-division teams and a young guy in Bobby Crosby who can rake in the middle of the infield. They've got three starting center fielders in Milton Bradley, Jay Payton, and Mark Kotsay, and as Tyler mentions, remarkable depth in their rotation.

Tyler: That isn't an ideal situation, but they're better equipped than last year when they were picking up Ryan Glynn off the waiver wire to take emergency starts.

Bryan: Decisions are just so, so difficult for the A's this year. Oh, who to pitch behind former Cy Young winner Barry Zito: Rich Harden or Dan Haren?

Tyler: This is Harden's year to break out. Almost all of the health reports on him this year have been glowing. He's even backed off on his weights routine. Haren will also be solid, but he can have problems with consistency because he depends on hitters swinging at that nasty splitter.

Rob: Break out? What more does he need to do? By the way, Tyler, next time you talk to Billy, you need to tell him to stop getting pitchers whose names are so similar -- Harden/Haren? That's almost as bad as Sarumon/Sauron.

Bryan: Personally I don't think the name of the hurler will matter much this season. Any pitcher could succeed with an outfield defense that will make doubles an impossibility.

Tyler: You're absolutely right about the defense, and you didn't even mention the infield. Mark Ellis and Crosby are one of the top double-play duos in baseball. Eric Chavez is a five-time Gold Glover (though we all know how much that means) and Dan Johnson is a decent first baseman. Then you add the outfield defense to that mix, some of these pitchers won't play with a better defense behind them their entire careers. The major question mark with the A's this year is health. Can Crosby and Harden stay healthy? Will Bradley be healthy? Will Chavez's ongoing shoulder issues hamper him? Notice I didn't even mention Frank Thomas.

Rob: Rate2 gives Chavez a 105 score -- he's still above average, though not as good as he was a couple years ago. Nobody expected you to mention Thomas, Tyler. It's pretty obvious that Beane doesn't expect him to necessarily be a lynchpin of the offense.

Bryan: The question, I guess, will be how health affects the offense. Still, I think it's good enough to win the division. Milton Bradley in a loving environment could be a big run producer.

Rich: The A's offense is plenty good. They scored nearly as many runs on the road last year as Texas.

Tyler: My feeling is you're going to see a Bradley close to the 2003 Cleveland Indians Bradley.

Rob: Bradley's health is far more important; if he doesn't stay in the lineup, bad things happen. I also think, having seen him play some, that he shares with Darin Erstad a tendency to injure himself from overhustling. Plus, he's just plain fragile. Remember the injury that kept him out of the Dodgers lineup last year: a busted ring finger ligament! How freakish is that?

Tyler: Still, even so, the A's have depth that they haven't had in years. If Bradley does go down for an extended time, the A's have Jay Payton.

Bryan: The A's depth will give Billy a chance to be Billy during the season. During the season, Beane can use that depth to fix the A's weaknesses. However, at this point, I'm not sure the A's have any weaknesses.

Tyler: I think they're missing a true LOOGY. And in this division with Teixeira, Blalock and even Garret Anderson, I think you need a quality LOOGY.

Rich: That's minor in the scope of things. The Angels haven't had a lefty in the bullpen in years.

Tyler: Joe Kennedy could evolve into that, but he's probably going to be more a Justin Duchscherer-type from last year.

Rob: I was astonished at how badly Kennedy performed last year, considering he was leaving Colorado. 4.45 ERA?

Tyler: Not that spring stats mean much considering their small sample size, but Kennedy seems to be thriving now that he knows his role. He's got a 0.96 ERA in Arizona.

Bryan: Still, I can't see Kennedy or any LOOGY having a large impact upon the A's chances. Oakland's division, and pennant, chances depend far more on the likes of Bradley and Eric Chavez.

Tyler: The A's season is dependent on three players to me: Crosby, Street and Harden. They lose any one of those players for an extended period of time and the drop-off in talent really hurts them.

Rob: Bryan was saying how the division has become a two-team race between the Angels and the A's in the last couple years. It's my opinion that if it becomes a three-team race, it'll be the Mariners, not the Rangers, who get there first.

Bryan: Seattle is certainly headed in the right direction, and for one reason: Felix Hernandez. There is no more exciting talent in the division than Felix, who is good health away from dominating each team's #1.

Rob: The M's have a very good bullpen -- in fact, their cumulative ERA was just a couple points behind the Angels' -- a once-in-a-lifetime starter in King Felix, but after that the story gets very unpredictable. Their 2-5 rotation guys are either old and inconsistent (Jamie Moyer) or young and inconsistent (everyone else). Outside of Richie Sexson, unless Adrian Beltre returns to something like his 2004 form, they don't have what Tyler calls a scary monster in their lineup.

Bryan: They overpaid for Jarrod Washburn, to be sure, but he will be a positive influence in the rotation. He's a similar style to Moyer, but he has a much better upside.

Rich: I think we saw Washburn's ceiling last year. Expect him to be nothing more than an average pitcher over the life of his contract, with more downside than upside.

Rob: Washburn was a mistake; he won't be healthy, he won't repeat his ability to strand the numerous runners he allows on base, and he's going to be a real albatross by the last year of his contract.

Tyler: I'm sorry, but any team that has Jamie Moyer as their opening day starter is not going to contend. They're also depending on Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro, both of whom had ERAs in the 5's last season. Truth be told, I actually like the Rangers rotation better than the Mariners right now with the natural exception of Hernandez.

Bryan: With Jeremy Reed out for two months, the Mariners will be in a pretty bad spot the first 8 weeks. Either Matt Lawton, Willie Bloomquist or Joe Borchard is going to be getting a lot more ABs than they deserve.

Rob: And I don't like that the injury appears to have been to one of the small bones in his wrist. I always think of Nomar's post-wrist-injury hitting, and cringe.

Tyler: Yes, they have a bona fide ace in Felix Hernandez and the offense will be better this year with Beltre likely improving, but you're right in that they have no depth.

Bryan: I like Beltre, too. He was one of the best hitters in the WBC, and has continued to play well in Spring Training. I have both Sexson and Beltre pegged for 30 home runs.

Rob: I dunno, Bryan. Having seen Beltre swing and miss at too many low outside sliders when he was with the Dodgers, and then hearing he's doing the exact same thing with the M's, well, I wonder if he'll ever be consistent.

Rich: Beltre will never approach his 2004 career year, but he should certainly improve upon his inaugural season in Seattle.

Rob: His early Spring Training numbers are encouraging for Seattle, though. Yeah, depth is a real problem for this club, although I confess to being surprised that the Mariners are in the middle of the pack as far as farm system rankings go. Most of their truly good players are still years away, though.

Bryan: In reality, I think the lack of depth will kill them. There are a few exciting talents at the top, but there is not nearly enough depth to really succeed. I look for a few good runs, but besides that, another last place finish from Seattle.

Rob: Totally agree. I see this division going down Oakland-LAA-Texas-Seattle, but it may be a lot tighter than that, and I could easily see the Rangers and Mariners flip-flopping if the right circumstances occur.

Bryan: Let's talk about Washburn's old team, the Angels. Signing Jeff Weaver on the cheap was a good move, I think, but I'm not sure they have the offense to succeed. Young players could definitely change that if they gel quickly, though.

Tyler: The Angels have an impressive rotation, the thing that concerns me about that team is its offense. There's Vladimir Guerrero and then there is everyone else.

Rich: Yeah, I think signing Jered to a $4 million bonus was a very cheap signing. Oh, you mean Jeff? Well, that was a good move, too.

Tyler: It usually takes a younger player a little longer to adjust to the majors. I think Casey Kotchman is going to be great, I just don't expect it to happen immediately. So, I agree, the pitching and bullpen will once again be solid, but the offense will struggle.

Rob: Even at the rate he was hitting last year, you could see him being a 20-30 home run guy. He's doing well in Spring Training. But definitely for the Angels, getting longballs out of the kids is going to be the key to the season. This is a rebuilding year, no doubt about it.

Rich: I don't think the Angels are viewing 2006 as a "rebuilding year" at all. Like the Atlanta Braves have shown more than once over the years, Arte Moreno's team is simply trying to have its cake and eat it, too, by slipping a couple of youngsters into a lineup that is still expected to contend.

Bryan: I think this is a team destined to succeed in 2008. They have to figure a few things out, for example, whether McPherson is the future at the hot corner. Or, how to get rid of Orlando Cabrera soon.

Rich: I'm not worried about these so-called problems in the least. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Tyler: Angel fans can take solace in the fact that they've got Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood and all those youngsters just waiting to make a huge impact on the AL West in 2007 and beyond.

Rob: The Angels look like they have depth, but it's illusory in some ways; what happens if, as many old and melancholy Angels fans hope, Tim Salmon makes the team? With Erstad and Anderson already begging for at-bats from the DH position, they now have three DH's, and four if Kendry Morales and his non-glove make a push for the big club in midseason.

Rich: I don't believe Erstad will get many at-bats as a DH. Anderson, Juan Rivera, and perhaps Salmon and Morales (if either makes the team), but not Ersty.

Tyler: I also don't buy the argument that the Angels didn't do anything this offseason. Angel fans should be rejoicing that Stoneman didn't deal away any young talent for Manny Ramirez. Allowing the young kids an opportunity is doing something intelligent.

Bryan: Stoneman really needs to figure out the right way to blend these veterans and young prospects. It will be his success in this regard that determines the Angels W-L record in 2006 and 2007, I think.

Rob: I'm a little less concerned, having seen the pitching, that they have sufficient bullpen depth; the recent announcement that the team "wants a left-handed bat" and is willing to give up Kevin Gregg and/or Esteban Yan to get it is really code for, "here, take my junk." They're not terrible, but given how well Jason Bulger did this spring (prior to a game or two ago), and some of the other guys' success, the bullpen looks like it's set.

Tyler: Rob, is this the year that K-Rod's funky delivery lands him on the DL?

Rob: Could easily be. And, I'm going to make a prediction: he'll be out of baseball beyond 2010. He refused to change his mechanics in the minors, and now that he's in the Show, he's showing the same recalcitrance.

Bryan: Well, the Angels bullpen is so good that a short Francisco Rodriguez stint on the DL isn't the worst thing in the world. Scot Shields is probably one of the 3-4 best relievers in the division.

Tyler: I also wonder about Shields being overworked. The guy personifies rubber arm, but eventually that type of use burns you out. Bobby Crosby named Shields as the toughest pitcher he's faced in the major leagues when I interviewed him recently.

Rich: Maybe that explains why Bobby is 0-fer vs. Shields.

Rob: Shields had started to tire around the time of the late August Blue Jays series last year, when the team had something like two or three extra-inning games, including an 18-inning nightmare. He absolutely can be overworked. And Scioscia, who learned at the foot of Tommy Lasorda, a master of overworking pitchers, while not quite as bad as his instructor, sometimes has the same tendencies.

Tyler: That's exactly what concerns me about Shields and K-Rod. Scioscia and Dusty Baker both come from that school. It's also why I don't think Kelvim Escobar lasts. And, how many games before Erstad gets injured in center field?

Rob: My bet is 40 games, which ought to be enough time for Dallas McPherson to get hot in the minors, and Figgins to move back to center, where he will probably be the team's starter through 2010.

Bryan: It seems as though the Angels are totally dependent upon health. And with Vlad not even entering the season 100%, they look to be in a lot of trouble. This team has the upside to win the division, but that would be pushing it.

Tyler: Yeah, Erstad getting hurt might actually HELP the Angels. I agree 100 percent, Bryan. I think depth comes into play so much in a 162-game schedule and for once, the A's have the most depth in the division.

Bryan: Well, let's go through our projected standings. I am going to go with the A's first, with the Rangers, Angels and Mariners rounding out the division.

Tyler: I see the division shaking out this way: OAK-TEX-ANA-SEA.

Rich: I like the A's here, followed by the Angels, Rangers, and Mariners.

Rob: Here's how I see it shaping up: Oakland, LAAoA, Texas, Seattle.

Tyler: But I also think this is going to be one of the most hotly contested divisions in baseball. Each one of the teams, except the Angels, will be improved.

Rob: Tyler -- how do you get off saying that? Finley's out of center, Erstad's in a position where his bat isn't expected to produce much, and Kotchman has a real chance of being a 20-30 home run guy.

Tyler: I think we've seen the best of Adam Kennedy last year, Anderson is on the decline, the catching can be a question mark. When I said improvement, I meant win totals. I don't imagine they would top 95 wins. I think the A's will top 88, the Rangers will top 79 and the Mariners will top 69.

Bryan: But, of course, the answer to the dozens of hypothetical questions we posed today will determine who lives up to their potential, and who does not.

Permalink | Comments (9)

Our Two on Two 2006 season previews move West this week, following the AL Central and NL Central. In the ring with Rich and Bryan today are two of the senior writers/bloggers on the Internet: Geoff Young (Ducksnorts - Padres) and Jon Weisman (Dodger Thoughts). Enjoy...

Bryan: Well guys, we have gotten to the point where criticizing the NL West's futility in 2005 has become cliche. Still, it's worth noting that after years of the AL Central being the worst in baseball, the NL West passed right by them last year. What I want to know is, was this simply a one-year aberration or is this a problem that isn't going away?

Jon: Can it be a two-year aberration? The coveted prospects in Arizona and Los Angeles will just be beginning to transition to the majors in 2006. San Francisco and San Diego should struggle with growing old despite having a hot pitcher here and there, while Colorado will continue to struggle with being Colorado. The law of averages could certainly help the NL West this season, but odds are that at most, one team will pass the 85-victory mark. Division-wide respect could be another year away.

Geoff: I think Jon nailed it. The California teams are too old, and the non-California teams are too young. The Dodgers and Giants brought in some name guys, and the Padres moved a lot of bodies, but for the most part we're looking at the same bunch of mediocrity that we saw in 2005. Although the positions may change, I don't see a 90-win team in the division. The good news is that I do think the problem will go away in 2007, when some of the good young talent in Arizona starts to make an impact and the Padres no longer have to pay the likes of Ryan Klesko and Chan Ho Park.

Rich: The NL West isn't dead. It's just taking a nap. That said, the division figures to be slightly better this year, if for no other reason than improved health. Looking out a year or two, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks could be among the elite teams in the league if their farm systems are as good as advertised. So I don't think we are talking about a Rip Van Winkle snooze here.

Bryan: Good point regarding the farm systems, Rich. While the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have the opportunity at plenty of implementation in the coming years, the Giants and, to a lesser degree, the Padres are aging and aging fast. Are the next two seasons going to be the last stands for these organizations, after which Arizona and Los Angeles start trading division titles? Or, is this thought simply too assuming?

Jon: Well, some teams rise from the dead quicker than expected, and some teams stay dead for a century or so. So who knows? It is hard for me to imagine a world where Arizona and Los Angeles alone play division-title keepaway. But getting back to this year ...

Rich: The Diamondback and Dodger farm systems aren't going to pay big dividends this year. Oh, we might see a few players get a chance to show their stuff, but I wouldn't expect much, if any, impact from these youngsters in the here and now.

Bryan: Yeah, it's funny, the two rookies that might be best in the West this year are Matt Cain (Giants) and Josh Barfield or Ben Johnson (Padres). Barfield has been one of Arizona's best hitters so far, so you'd have to think he will get the majority of 2B at-bats. The offense around him is pretty solely dependent upon aging, with Mike Piazza, Ryan Klesko, Brian Giles and Vinny Castilla all paramount to the defending champs' success.

Geoff: Beyond Barfield (if he wins the job) and Khalil Greene, the Padres do have a pretty old offense. Of course, that changes next winter when all the contracts run out. From there it's a question of how quickly Grady Fuson is able to revitalize the farm system. It's funny: all the teams in this division are on the cusp of rebuilding. The only thing really holding anyone back from committing to a complete overhaul is the fact that everyone else is in the same boat, so why not hedge your bets and try to do something right now? After all, as we were reminded last year, someone has to win the NL West.

Rich: Yes, indeed. Let's take a look at each team, starting with last year's NL West champs--the 82-80 San Diego Padres. Is the team better or worse this year?

Jon: At best, they're not much better. Many of the folks they brought in are aging, declining players. Mike Cameron is a good player, but not an acquisition to pin your hopes on. There probably isn't any pitcher in the division I'd rather throw out there in a single game than Jake Peavy, but I don't know that San Diego has a complete starting rotation. I think the Padres will need some pleasant surprises.

Geoff: The team is certainly different. Better or worse remains an open question. As Jon notes, the Padres aren't young and the pitching staff has holes. I agree that San Diego will need some pleasant surprises. Unfortunately that's a lot to ask when you're talking about a group that for the most part is on the wrong side of 30 (by quite a bit, in many cases). I look at this team and see 75-85 wins. Sadly, that might be enough.

Rich: Well, 85 may be enough to take the division. But 75 certainly won't, no matter how bad the West might be this year. What needs to go right for the Padres to win 85?

Geoff: No, 75 probably won't - the '94 Rangers were an aberration. What needs to go right for the Padres to win 85? How much time have you got? Chris Young needs to prove that last year's fade down the stretch was a fluke, and at least one of Shawn Estes, Chan Ho Park, or Woody Williams needs to provide league average production or better. The aging vets on offense need to stay healthy and reasonably productive. Khalil Greene needs to step up his offensive game a bit. And then - you know, I liked this question better before I'd really stopped to think about it. The biggest problem facing the Padres this year is that they didn't address their deficiencies in the starting rotation. I think for the Padres to succeed this year, their pitching needs to be better than it looks on paper, and not just by a little.

Jon: Park was doing well has a reliever in the World Baseball Classic - I don't know if that's a good sign or a bad one.

Rich: As long as the Padres aren't footing the bill this year, it seems to me that Park is more likely to surprise to the upside than the downside, especially as a middle reliever. I also think Young has some upside, if for no other reason than going from a hitter's park in Texas to a pitcher's park in San Diego.

Bryan: Peavy and Young at the top of the rotation. Williams and Estes in the middle. Let's just hope that Dewon Brazelton isn't the fifth starter. But does any team in the division have a quality fifth starter?

Jon: If you ignore the fact that Brett Tomko is a questionable No. 4, I think the Dodgers have potential in the back of the rotation with Jae Seo and, perhaps later this season, Chad Billingsley. With Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Odalis Perez, the Dodgers make a mockery of the whole No. 1 - No. 5 designations. Every day is No. 3 or No. 4 day!

Rich: Yeah, I don't understand why Tomko has been handed a spot in the rotation and Seo has to beat back D.J. Houlton and Scott Erickson Aaron Sele. Jon, tell me, it's not true: Sele is not going to break camp with the Dodgers -- or is he?

Jon: Not in the rotation, because Seo held his own in the increasingly respected (at least outside of Dodgertown) WBC. But the last spots in the Dodger bullpen are up in the air. The Dodgers would probably prefer Sele go to Las Vegas, but he might ask for his release rather than face the slot machine bats down there. Geoff - maybe San Diego would like to trade Brian Giles for him???

Geoff: Hmmm, Sele was pretty good in 1998, which seems to be the theme of the current Padres rotation. As for Park in the bullpen, why not? If that happens, I'd expect Clay Hensley rather than Brazelton to get the #5 spot. Or Andy Benes. Or Tim Lollar.

Rich: Nomar Garciaparra was pretty good back then, too. In fact, Ned Colletti and Grady Little have put together a Dodgers team that is a cross dresser between the Red Sox and Giants of old.

Jon: Yeah, what are you gonna do? It's also got a lineup that's about as vulnerable to injury as last year's was. But this Dodger team should take at least a small step forward - it starts the season without the holes of Jose Valentin and Scott Erickson, and with a more mature group of prospects to back everyone up. Still, the Dodgers' fortunes may depend most on whether Lowe, Penny and Perez can be more effective.

Bryan: And, certainly, how much they can get out of their veterans. This team is extraordinarily dependent upon veterans like Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Bill Mueller, Kenny Lofton and (his body older than his actual age) J.D. Drew. In my eyes the Dodgers chances are as dependent upon (trainer) Stan Johnston as anyone else.

Rich: True. In the investment world, we would tab the Dodgers as a "high beta" team. If things go awry, I wouldn't be surprised if LA only won 70-75 games. Conversely, if everything goes as planned, LA could win 85-90 games. I know you could drive a couple of big trucks through that range, but it suggests to me that the Dodgers are perhaps the most difficult team in the league to gauge.

Jon: Amen to that. Last year, I went out on the short, sturdy limb that the Dodgers would win between 80 and 100 games - and I still crashed.

Rich: Some folks got hurt (so to speak) more than others. Mixing trees and walls here, do you think Humpty Dumpty has been put back together again?

Bryan: My vote is that in this division, the answer is yes. As dependent as this team is on health, there are a lot of pieces for a winning ballclub. I think the Rafael Furcal acquisition, if a few too million per year, is going to be fantastic. With a little help from the farm system, a la Jeff Francoeur, I see little reason the Dodgers can't be the Braves of 2006.

Rich: We'll see, Bryan. I know Little and Cox are buddies, but who's going to impersonate Schuerholz and Mazzone? Oh well, let's talk about that other team in the West with all those rookies. The Diamondbacks. Are their youngsters ready for prime time yet?

Bryan: Yes (Stephen Drew), yes (Conor Jackson), and yes (Carlos Quentin). Unfortunately, the team didn't open up a spot for Quentin, who will return to Tucson and destroy more PCL pitching. Not trading Shawn Green while his stock is high is weird to me. Anyway, I really like this offense, but am pretty worried about the defense besides Orlando Hudson. If Tony Clark ever plays first when Brandon Webb is on the mound, Webb's fantasy owners will be left depressed.

Geoff: I like a lot of the young position players Arizona has assembled but as with the Padres, I wonder about the rotation. Beyond Webb I'm not seeing a whole lot unless Russ Ortiz somehow rebounds.

Jon: I've gone wrong a good part of the past several years underestimating Arizona, so I'm loath to belittle them when they've got prospects percolating. I'll also question their starting rotation - as well as their overall home run power - but they've got enough of an X factor that I can't count them out.

Rich: To the extent that anyone likes Arizona, I believe they are either premature in their thinking or guilty of looking at the D-Backs with their heart. This is not a very good ball club right now. Heck, they weren't a very good team last year. They just happened to outplay their Pythagorean record by 12 games. I mean, these guys gave up 853 runs last year. Only the Rockies and Reds allowed more. In fact, Arizona was more than a half a run behind the 13th-worst team in run prevention. And what do they do? Replace Javier Vazquez with Orlando Hernandez? I'm sorry guys but even in as weak a division as the NL West, I don't see where the Diamondbacks stand a chance--at least not this year.

Geoff: Put me in the "not going to underestimate them again" camp with Jon. Yes, the team has a lot of holes, but they had those holes last season and finished second in the division. And I'm pretty sure, Rich, that I would have been at the front of the "I don't see where they stand a chance" line this time last year. Fool me once...

Bryan: It's hard for me to not think the Diamondbacks pitching staff will not improve this year. Yes, they lost Javier Vazquez, but he had a down year in the desert anyway. It's quite possible that Dustin Nippert could jump in the rotation and provide equal or improved production. Factor in a better season from Brad Halsey, a better than 6.89 ERA from Russ Ortiz and more of the same for Brandon Webb, and it isn't quite so horrendous. Still, it also isn't enough to win this division.

Rich: OK, I guess I'm the bear in this group with respect to the Diamondbacks. One other point, they traded Troy Glaus and certainly aren't going to get the same level of production out of Tony Clark (.304/.355/.636) they got last year. Who's going to take up the slack? Eric Byrnes? Jeff Davanon?

Geoff: Well, they've upgraded at catcher and second base, and I think if Jackson and Drew get material time, they could help fill the gap left by the departure of Glaus. I also don't believe Chad Tracy's season was a fluke. Not that any of this guarantees success for Arizona, just that in March, it's too soon to count them out just yet. On the other hand, there is still the matter of pitching. Which I guess brings us to the Giants.

Jon: Guess so. And in contrast to the Diamondbacks, I think the Giants have some starting pitching potential, led by Jason Schmidt, Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, and I'll take Matt Morris as a No. 4 over the Dodgers' Tomko.

Bryan: It's a good rotation if, and only if, Jason Schmidt is healthy and himself, neither of which he was last year. Lowry is as quiet an All-Star as there is on the West Coast, but he is no ace. Cain has all the potential in the world, but it's hard to imagine too much in 2006. Schmidt needs to eat innings and take on the best that other teams have to offer.

Jon: But with Barry Bonds unlikely to play maybe even 120 games and other aging players speckling the roster, don't you think there will be some low-scoring days at the park north of Candlestick?

Rich: As long as "guess" is the watchword here, I guess it depends on how many balls end up in the McCovey Cove. And only one player is capable of depositing home run balls into as many kayaks as -- dare I say his name? -- Barry Bonds.

Bryan: There is no question that Bonds is going to have to bear a lot this season in the way of heckling, and if history repeats itself, even threats. There are two directions he could go -- proving everyone wrong, or folding under the pressure.

Geoff: Assuming Bonds is able to do anything this year, has there ever been an older starting outfield in baseball? The biggest offensive threats on this club will be 40+ by the end of the season. Honestly, I have a tough time gauging the Giants. Schmidt pitched last year like he was back in Pittsburgh. Morris is good for innings but he hasn't been much better than league average in a few years. Seems to me they need a lot go right to make an impact.

Rich: The Giants have a lot in common with the Dodgers. Both teams are pretty old. However, if healthy, Schmidt is better than any Dodger starter and Bonds is better than any Dodger regular. But those are two big IFs, let me tell you.

Geoff: Agreed on both points. So, no love for the Rockies?

Jon: Honestly, I'd like to see them do well. I'd like to see baseball thrive in that ballpark, in that state, in that time zone. I'd like not to think that baseball is being played somewhere you just can't win. But they just can't seem to get a collection of impact players going. The team isn't talentless, so if injury demons take out the division's other four teams, stranger things have happened than Cinderella wearing ski boots. But the bigger issue is that Colorado has just got to figure out how to get true quality players there - not phantoms.

Rich: And to think that Clint Hurdle is the manager with the second-longest tenure in the division! I doubt if Hurdle is to blame for Colorado's woes, but it's definitely unusual--especially nowadays--for a skipper to finish fourth three straight years, then last and still have a job. But here's what I find so interesting: the Rockies are 171-143 (.545) at home and 105-207 (.337) on the road under Hurdle. Until the Rockies find a way to win away from Coors Field, they will never 'mount to anything.

Bryan: It's interesting you point a finger at Hurdle, but Dan O'Dowd does not get a mention. Coors Field can make ordinary players look like stars, ordinary lineups look impressive. But the reality of the matter is this team hit .232/.299/.359 on the road last year, when we saw the real sides of Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Cory Sullivan and Clint Barmes. It's odd that Hurdle has been here for four years, but far stranger that O'Dowd has lasted more than half-a-decade. Me thinks ownership has, like many fans in Denver, simply fallen asleep.

Geoff: Here's a depressing thought: The Rockies haven't finished higher than fourth in their division since 1997. Not even Kansas City or Pittsburgh can make that claim. I guess the real questions are whether it's even possible to win in Colorado and, if so, how one goes about doing it. Also, where is Marvin Freeman when you need him?

Rich: Well, the Rockies have proved they can win in Colorado. The problem is that they have never shown an ability to win on the road. Todd Helton and Matt Holliday tied for the club lead in home runs on the road with SEVEN. The bottom line is that the Rockies lack talent more than anything else. There appears to be some hope down the road in the form of Ian Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki but neither is likely to make their debuts until 2007.

Geoff: Yeah, those are some bad splits. One thing I've long suspected (without any proof) is that a secondary effect of the Rockies' extreme home environment is that it hurts them when they leave Coors Field because they are constantly having to adjust to different conditions. I wonder, regardless of talent level, to what degree it's even possible to field a consistently winning club that plays half of its games in an extreme environment and the other half in places where it's trying to adapt to more "normal" conditions. My complete space cowboy theory is that they should play in a pressurized dome in Colorado, which unfortunately negates many of the benefits of having a team in such a beautiful location. Honestly, I think that has got to be the most challenging place to try and build a competitive ballclub.

Rich: I agree. I think Denver should stick to football.

Jon: I'm not ready to give up on the Rockies forever. I still think it's mainly a talent problem. How many true stars have come through there in the past few years? Todd Helton and ... (gulp) Mike Hampton? If the Rockies can learn not to get fooled by mountain mirages and actually put together some good people, they might win some games, home and away. Tampa Bay had a home/road split in winning percentage of .160 last year (.493/.333) - not much less than Colorado's - but no one argues that the Devil Rays' playing environment is unwinnable. I'm not convinced a team loses two out of three on the road because of air pressure. I think it's more likely because they aren't that good anywhere.

Of course, for this year, what's done is done. These are your Rockies, and they still face an uphill battle. And the best thing they've got going for them is that the hills of the NL West won't be as high as they are in other divisions.

Bryan: It's more than an uphill battle against a short hill, Jon. This Rockies team has NO chance of success given their starting rotation, much less inadequacies in their lineup. I love Jeff Francis as much as the next guy, but he may not be the breed of pitcher to succeed in Denver. I'm not really sure what that breed is, however. I've always liked the idea of the Rockies using only relievers. Look for another season with Colorado towards the bottom of the MLB in ERA.

Jon: So, predictions? I'll go with the Dodgers in a rough-and-tumble rumble.

Bryan: Jon, I know it's a bad division, but you forgot to mention the other 4 teams! Who do you have in slots 2-5? Personally, I like the Dodgers, too, and see them modestly chased by San Diego and San Fran. Give Arizona a year off to get some pitching, and give Colorado five to leave town.

Jon: I was trying to avoid having to be more specific. With no conviction, I'll say San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego and then Colorado behind Los Angeles.

Rich: Gosh, Jon, I was hoping we wouldn't even have to pick our favorite to win the division, much less rank all five teams. I believe it is a three-horse race among the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres. If everyone is relatively healthy, then I like the Giants. But I don't say that with a lot of conviction either. I feel better about qualifying my prediction to add that whichever one of these three teams has the fewest number of days - or the lowest amount of payroll dollars - on the DL will take the division. How's that?

Jon: I think that's great, but Bryan is going to disown you!

Rich: I know, I know. OK, I'll close my eyes and go with the Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.

Geoff: Much as I hate to admit it, I think that - if healthy - the Dodgers are the team to beat, followed by the Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. I could see Colorado finishing ahead of Arizona. I'm crazy that way.

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With just about two weeks left until the 2006 season begins, the middle of March is normally a time to start counting down the days to opening day (while filling out and monitoring your NCAA brackets). In the meantime, the World Baseball Classic will divert and capture the attention of baseball fans for the next several days.

We were both fortunate to see baseball games this past week, one of us basking in the Arizona sun with the other performing his patriotic duty, rooting for the good ol' US of A. With the Major League season just a hop, skip and a jump away, here are a few notes to lead us into the weekend...

Rich: A couple of months ago, I made a decision to purchase a strip of tickets to the WBC games in Anaheim. After attending games on Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday, I have no regrets. Well, I regret the fact that the U.S. team lost two of three games and failed to advance to the semis in San Diego, but I'm glad I was there.

Bryan: Boy Rich, I'm jealous that you got to see competitive baseball.

Rich: I'm not sure how much I saw, Bryan. The people in front of me spent more time standing and waving American and Mexican flags than watching the games. It kinda felt as if I went to the zoo and a baseball game broke out, to be honest.

Bryan: I can't really complain...

Rich: You're not allowed to complain. Just me.

Bryan: As I was saying, the Angels entered the ninth inning today with Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales due up. A prospect fan's dream. I'll have the full report next week, but I will say that the Angels' opponents, the Cubs, have been more of a nightmare lately. Mark Prior's injury comes as no surprise, and while his diagnosis isn't too frightening, for once the Cubs need starting pitching.

Glendon Rusch, Rich Hill and Jerome Williams entered Thursday with a 8.18 ERA. Fans will have faith in Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux, but the comfort ends there. With an offense that was going to be questionable no matter what, the Cubs pitching staff now has very little wiggle room. With each passing day, my win prediction for the 2006 Cubs seems to drop.

Rich: Mine wasn't very high to begin with so I'm not going to adjust anything. I've got the Cubs at about .500. You know, the same as Team USA. Do you realize the Americans were 3-3 and could have been 2-4, if not for that botched call at third base against Japan?

Bryan: Yeah, that's as surprising as the Koreans getting through the first two rounds undefeated. Good for them. Good for baseball.

As far as spring training goes, if you are curious about how your favorite prospect has played this spring, I would suggest this article at the official Minor League Baseball site. My first point is to stress that numbers are just small sample sizes this early on, and everything must be taken with a grain of salt. However, I also remember spring trainings of yesteryear, when players like Russ Martin and Prince Fielder (both mentioned in this article) raised a lot of eyebrows.

Brewer fans should rest assured that Fielder is generally a slow starter. He really improved as the AAA season went on last year. The Brewers should also be made aware of this, so that there are no temptations to use Corey Koskie and Bill Hall on the corners. Fielder is one of the four leading preseason candidates for the NL Rookie of the Year (an article that demands to be written later), and a bad Spring Training should hardly dillute such thoughts. Everyone of my fantasy teams will have Fielder and Brian McCann on the bench.

Rich: I'm not as high on Fielder as you are, Bryan. But I'm biased. I remember seeing him at P.F. Chang's in Newport Beach with his Dad when Cecil was playing for the Angels in 1998. Prince was a big boy back then. He was only 14. I don't know what it is, but I just have a hard time thinking of him as a bona fide Rookie of the Year candidate. Oh, I'm sure he will hit for power...I just don't know if the rest of his game will be strong enough to support anything less than 30 or 35 home runs per season.

Bryan: I also want to point out that Joey Devine is mentioned in this piece, growing in fame for striking out 14 batters in his first seven innings this March. The Braves' closer spot is one of the most watched positions in fantasy baseball, and Devine should probably start getting major attention in fantasy leagues. I thought Blaine Boyer would land the job originally, but it appears to be a matter of time before Devine is pitching in the ninth. This is, of course, a good time to mention that Blair Erickson and Mark Melancon -- college baseball's two best junior closers -- currently have 54 strikeouts in 44 innings.

Rich: If we're talking prospects, you best be tipping your hat in the direction of Evan Longoria. The rap on him last year was that he didn't walk much. Well, guess what? The MVP of the Cape Cod League has drawn 19 bases on balls in 90 plate appearances. He has a .527 on-base average. Oh, and Longoria has only struck out five times thus far. This guy is a surefire top ten pick. But he's a third baseman, not a shortstop.

Bryan: Speaking of college baseball, I'd like to point out an article by Dave Cameron at The Hardball Times. Cameron is really the first to enter a full report on the North Carolina duo's season, which has been absolutely fantastic. Daniel Bard has certainly passed Ian Kennedy in my rankings (Joba Chamberlain has, too), and is really competing with Max Scherzer for the second spot.

Andrew Miller, however, is by far the best player in this draft. This is another topic I will have more on soon, but Cameron details the heavy two-seam fastball that Miller has perfected, resulting in pretty ridiculous groundball rates. This draft has gained a lot of criticism for not having that one, great player, but my vote is for such talk to stop. Miller is an injury risk, I know, but he would be one of the top ten pitching prospects in baseball right now. Simply put, the Kansas City Royals must, must, must draft and sign the Tar Heel southpaw.

While we are on the topic of the draft, let me point out the fact that Matt Antonelli hit his seventh home run of the season this week. In 72 at-bats, the Wake Forest third baseman has 24 hits, 48 total bases, 17 walks and seven steals. He's a freak athletically, a former high school player of the year in football and hockey (ironically not baseball). He is a good third baseman, but probably has the ability to move to centerfield and possibly even second base. Antonelli made the 20 spot in my Sports Illustrated preview article, but his stock is way up since then. In a draft extremely thin on position players, I would be shocked to see Antonelli not drafted in the top 30.

Rich: Well, Bryan, I see where I am 12-4 in my college hoops pool. And the good news is that all of my Sweet Sixteen teams will be playing this weekend. That's a lot more than what Team USA can say.

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Today we return to our 2006 previews, staying in the midwest. In our first installment of this feature, Aaron Gleeman and Cheat helped us preview the AL Central. Here to duke it out with Rich and Bryan are two very talented writers, Larry Borowsky from Viva El Birdos (a Cardinals blog) and John Hill via the Cub Reporter. Enjoy the latest segment...

Bryan: The NL Central has been, outside the AL East, the most predictable division in baseball for five years. In fact, only once has the top two not included St. Louis and Houston. The trend looks to be coming to an end, no?

Larry: I think the Cardinals are still pretty certain to hold one of those top 2 slots, but not so certain they'll hold the top slot. The Brewers look ready to challenge for a division title or wild card, and the Cubs' luck is bound to turn one of these years; if they can keep Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano healthy for 60 starts (and that's a big if, I realize) they could easily finish 1st or 2nd. I wouldn't expect Houston to win the division outright, but if Roger Clemens returns -- as Peter Gammons reports he will -- I don't see why they couldn't win 90 games and another wild card.

John: This time last year, most were completely writing off the Houston Astros, and that didn't stop them making it to the World Series for the first time in their history. So excuse me if I'm a little hesitant to be quite so bullish about any anticipated demise on the part of the Cubs' biggest rivals! That said, it does certainly appear that both the Cardinals and Astros will be weaker this year, and that consequently the division will be a lot more open. At the very least, I don't think the Cardinals will have run away with things again by the end of the May.

Rich: The Cardinals are clearly the class of the division. It's theirs to lose. The Astros, Brewers, and Cubs (that's alpha order and how they finished last year) have an outside shot at first place if everything goes right and the Cards slip for whatever reason.

Larry: The pitching staffs of the top four teams are pretty close. All four teams have strong 1-2 starters: Oswalt/Pettitte, Carpenter/Mulder, Zambrano/Prior, Sheets/Davis.

Bryan: Yes, other than the Reds, I think it's a division of pitching. The Cubs, Brewers and Astros all have offensive problems, but everyone has a deep staff.

Larry: I think the Brewers' offense may be pretty good. I was just looking their lineup over -- if Prince Fielder hits, there's not a weak link in the lineup.

John: In the long-term, there's little doubt about it, Fielder and Rickie Weeks will hit, and both will be tremendous assets to the organization. But the jump from the minor leagues to the major leagues is a hard enough one to make as it is even without taking into account that young players that strike out quite a bit seem to take the longest to acclimate to facing more advanced pitching. As a result, I personally wouldn't be surprised to see Fielder and Weeks find the going tough at first, to see them not contribute much. As for the rest of the lineup, it doesn't feature any weak links, but I don't think it features many particularly strong ones either. This year at least, I think it's likely to not be much better than an average offense, one that will keep them in games but that won't go out and win them outright.

Bryan: Well, as someone who follows prospects, the Brewers are a dream. I say offensive problems, but that's a stretch, what I mean is potential offensive problems. If they hit on all cylinders, this team will bash with the best of 'em.

Larry: I agree with you, Bryan. The Brewers have the best leadoff man in the division (Brady Clark) and they have good on-base ability throughout the lineup. I think Weeks is going to hit, and Carlos Lee and Geoff Jenkins are pretty established middle-of-the-order hitters. Not all-stars, but very productive. One caveat in regards to Fielder: 2 walks, 17 Ks in his September trial last year. If he falters, however, they can put Bill Hall in at third and play Corey Koskie at first.

Rich: Yikes. Hall hit well last year, but I'd be surprised if he put up those same numbers this year. Koskie is passable as a third baseman but would be a huge liability offensively as a first baseman.

Bryan: Well, Fielder is the one guy you don't have to worry about. He might start slow, he does so historically, but he is totally ready for the Majors. I worry more about Koskie, Damian Miller, and Clark bringing the rest down.

Larry: What's impressive about the Brewers is that they can just plug in Corey Hart if one of their outfielders goes down or plays badly. Does anybody think the Brewers might actually trade Carlos Lee in a midseason salary dump? They're almost sure to be in the wild-card race come July. But the rumors have flown about Lee being moved.

Bryan: No, they might as well take the draft pick at season's end, unless Hart's OPS at AAA is over 1.000 or something. But really, the reason to like the Brewers isn't the young, high ceiling offense but the deep, deep, deep rotation. Mike Maddux for divisional MVP?

John: There's no doubting Mike Maddux is one of the better pitching coaches in the game, but the most valuable person in the division? That's far too big a statement for me. I mean, come on, Albert Pujols?

Bryan: Yeah, I exaggerate, but his value has been well-proven with the improvements of Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, and many more. We really need J.C. Bradbury to do a Mike Maddux Effect.

John: Is their rotation really that deep? I don't think it is, yet it may well need to be. Their fourth starter is currently Tomo Ohka, and they have Dave Bush, Dana Eveland and Rick Helling battling it out for the final spot. I don't see much to get excited about there and the Brewers are only an injury to Ben Sheets away from having three of those four pitchers in their rotation behind Davis and Capuano. That's a cynical way of looking at things, certainly, but is Ben Sheets that much greater an injury risk than some of the Cub pitchers we'll surely come to speak of later in this discussion?

Rich: The Brewers will only go as far as Sheets takes them.

John: Few pitchers are paragons of good health, it's part of the job description, but over the last eighteen months alone, Sheets has suffered a torn muscle in his upper back related to the shoulder and undergone surgery to repair a herniated disk in his lower back, plus that odd inner-ear infection. If he's not careful he'll get a somewhat undeserved reputation for being injury prone before too long.

Larry: Before we leave the Brew Crew, they meet a lot of Bill James' "leading indicators" of successful teams. One, they have a young everyday lineup. Two, they underperformed their Pythagorean W-L last year by three games, meaning they may be due for a bit of luck this year. And three, they scored fewer runs than would be predicted by the Runs Created formula, which again suggests they might have been a tad unlucky last season and due for a bounce. They won 81 last season; it's not that hard to see them at 90 in 2006.

Bryan: I'll admit, they are my pick to win the division. I like David Bush to break out a bit, Ben Sheets to stay healthy, and Carlos Lee could blossom into a star in his contract year. Milwaukee is looking up sans Selig.

John: I agree that things are looking up in Milwaukee, and that this ought to be the season that they finally get back above five hundred for the first time since 1992. I'm just wary that people are setting the bar too high too soon, and expecting the youngsters to carry them to a division title is I think out of the question, at least this year. For them to do it, literally everything would need to break their way.

Rich: I'm not looking for the Brewers to win the division, but I think they will challenge for the wild card.

Larry: If they do win, then maybe Mike Maddux IS the division MVP, but Pujols will not give it up without a fight. The man has a force of will (as we saw in the 9th inning of Game 5 of the NLCS) and it elevates the whole team's play. That said, the Cardinals are clearly vulnerable. The Brewers have a clean shot at them, but if the Cubs can get 60 starts from Prior and Zambrano -- and if Dusty Baker stops doing those things -- they could be troublesome, too.

John: On the face of things, I think the Cardinals have taken a pretty big step backwards this year. The return of Scott Rolen, perhaps to his best form, perhaps not, could give them three big bats in the lineup, one of them in my opinion the best player in the game. But beyond those three, the other being the aging Jim Edmonds, the supporting cast has really thinned out. Larry Bigbie, John Rodriguez, Juan Encarnacion, Junior Spivey - any other team and I'd feel sorry for them. Fact of the matter is that the only people that lineup's scaring now are Cardinal fans. What a far cry from just two years ago.

Rich: Well, we're all aging, John. At 35, Edmonds is still the best center fielder in the division. Granted, the Cardinals missed an opportunity to better themselves during the off-season, but we need to remember that they are working with a pretty big margin for error here.

Larry: If the pitchers perform, I think the Cardinals will still be right there, despite the weakened lineup. But Jeff Suppan has overachieved the last couple of seasons, and who knows if Mark Mulder is any good anymore. I wrote him off last June and he proved me wrong. He's pitching for a new contract; maybe that will motivate him.

John: I think it's pretty evident that the Cardinals made a big mistake in pulling the trigger on the Mark Mulder trade. Danny Haren is arguably already the better of the two, and that's not even considering the difference in salary, or the fact that the Cardinals also sent Daric Barton and Kiko Calero to Oakland.

Larry: It obviously hasn't worked out. I won't fault Jocketty for pulling the trigger -- he thought Mulder was the guy who could put the Cards over the top. He paid a high price to get him, rolled the dice and crapped out. But at least he played to win. I will allow him that.

Bryan: The Mulder trade represents a weakness in the La Russa/Jocketty-run front office, as they tend to devalue top-heavy pitching prospects. Here's to hoping Anthony Reyes doesn't face the same curse.

John: I could understand underutilizing Reyes if the Cardinals didn't have an obvious vacancy in the rotation, but the fact of the matter is that they do. Suppan is at best a league average pitcher, I don't think much more of Jason Marquis, and I think a lot less of Sidney Ponson, though it was a low risk gamble. Sending Reyes to the bullpen or back to the minor leagues sends the wrong message, and it might even cost the Cardinals a few games too.

Larry: The one player who might give the Cards a real shot in the arm, Reyes appears ticketed for long relief. Marquis and Ponson are both question marks. There are no disasters-in-waiting on the staff, but it may not be a league-leader in ERA in 2006.

John: Wait, you're saying Sidney Ponson isn't a disaster in waiting? I can't agree with that, not unless you already think he's a disaster.

Larry: I think Ponson will simply eat innings and have a 4.50 ERA, which is only slightly worse than what Marquis and Morris did last year.

John: Well, Ponson is good at eating, they might as well put that to good use and feed him innings.

Bryan: Ponson is a good value signing, but it's just that. There's no risk to give him ten starts and see what happens, but Jocketty needs to make sure La Russa can get away from him if need be.

Larry: Obviously Ponson isn't the difference between success and failure in the postseason. At best, he'll provide the depth the Cardinals need to acquire a bat at midseason.

Rich: I don't see Ponson bringing a bat this summer. Either he pitches well and the Cards keep him or he bombs and has next to no trade value.

Bryan: My concern isn't really the rotation, which has enough depth to survive. The problem of the staff, I think, is the bullpen.

Larry: I think the middle relief will shape up. Either Reyes or Ponson will be there to provide bulk innings, and Brad Thompson can handle the 6th/7th; Duncan should be able to turn at least one of Adam Wainwright, Josh Hancock, Brad Voyles, etc. into a useful middle reliever. But the 8th and 9th innings won't be boring. La Russa will have to play matchups to the hilt, shielding Braden Looper (and Jeff Nelson, if he makes the team) from left-handed hitters and Ricardo Rincon and Flores from righties. Jason Isringhausen may be asked to get more 4-out saves this year, and he wasn't exactly unhittable in 2005. One weak link in that chain could cost the team a few games -- and in a tight race, that could be a big problem.

Bryan: Alright, let's talk a bit about the offense. Larry mentioned Rolen, and to me, he's the key. His health could be the x-factor of the division. Without him, who's the 3rd-best hitter, Encarnacion?

Larry: If he's healthy, then Encarnacion is safely stowed in a supporting role. If Rolen gets hurt or is not sound enough to be Scott Rolen, then there's nobody on the roster to pick up the slack.

Rich: There really wasn't anybody to pick up the slack last year, yet the team won 100 games.

Larry: It's going to be a 760-run offense at worst, as long as Pujols and Edmonds can play. And 760 runs will put them in the upper half of the league. If Rolen's good to go, then it's probably a 780- to 790-run offense, which puts them in the top 3 or 4. It's not as scary as it used to be, but don't forget they scored 805 without Rolen last year.

Rich: Exactly.

Bryan: Yes, the offense certainly has an advantage over the Cubs. Edmonds is that big difference-maker. The infields are pretty much the same offensively, but the Cubs abysmal outfield can't touch the Cards average one. That will be one difference maker between those rivals, before even talking about health.

Larry: And I would expect the Cardinals to acquire an outfield bat at some point. Luis Gonzalez will be available; Kevin Mench can be had.

Bryan: Yes, and Jim Hendry might be too stubborn to do so. Matt Murton and Jacque Jones will be really average, and Juan Pierre will be, well, Pierre. He won't see reason to make a trade, and will thus give that bat to the Cards.

Rich: Cubs fans would be better off counting crows than hits for Mr. Jones this coming year, especially those vs. LHP.

Bryan: It's a problem of roster construction that gives St. Louis the edge.

John: Strangely, I just can't bring myself to predict anything less than ninety wins for the Cardinals this year. I don't much like their offense, and I don't much like their pitching staff. But if there's a team in baseball not called the Braves that manages to always find a way, it's the Cardinals. If I wasn't quite so cold-blooded I could probably find a way myself to actually appreciate that about them. As it happens, I'm reptilian about it and really can't.

Larry: Well, let's talk about the Cubs. I always think they're gonna give the Cards a go and then health and Dusty Baker make me look like a fool. Will this year be different?

John: No. So, anyone got any thoughts about the Reds this year?

Bryan: Yeah, the key for Cub fans is always to downplay expectations, right?

John: Expectations, what are they again?

Bryan: I think the Cubs are merely a .500 team, and constructed just like that. The bullpen is solid, but there isn't a lot of room for it to be great. The rotation can be, but there is such little certainty in it. And, finally, the lineup doesn't invoke a lot of hope.

Larry: Couldn't Pierre have a .370 OBP playing in Wrigley?

John: Juan Pierre isn't going to be a problem for the Cubs this year. I have little doubt he's going to hit a lot of singles, he's going to steal a lot of bases, and he's going to get caught while he's at it plenty of times, too. He's going to catch balls in center field that his poor reads and routes give him no right to get to, and his arm is going to be of less use than a balsa wood battering ram. But he won't be a problem. The center field position will be filled, and on the whole, adequately so. Juan Pierre, for me, actually sums up the current state of the Cubs very well: on the whole just adequate and overly expensive.

Bryan: John, I'm really curious what your thoughts are about this pitching staff. Is there any chance for a full bill of health? I doubt it.

John: There's no chance of a full bill of health, but that's the same with almost every pitching staff. Injury is a part of the game, particularly on the pitching side of things.

Rich: Dusty rode his Big Three hard down the stretch in 2003. He may have ruined Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Well, maybe not ruined them. But we'll never know just how good Wood and Prior might have been had they been handled properly.

John: All the same, the situation with the Cubs these last few years has been farcical - besides Chad Fox, who hardly counts, and Mike Remlinger, I honestly can't remember the last time the Cubs suffered an injury to a pitcher who wasn't absolutely crucial to the team's success at the time (a quick check says Todd Wellemeyer spent nearly two months on the DL in early 2004). At some stage, surely, the Cubs will be able to get a fully-functional Zambrano, Prior and Wood on the mound at the same time, and instead it'll be John Koronka maybe that's taken out by an unfortunate line drive. But until that happens, though the Cubs have better pitching depth this year, easily the best in the division, the Cubs aren't going to win anything. The depth is great, but this offense needs a staff strong enough to pick it up, put it on its back and literally carry it. That means all three of our aces really need to be out there.

Larry: As a baseball fan, I would like to see what those guys could do in a full season. The signs from spring training aren't all that encouraging regarding Prior, and the latest I've heard is that Wood won't be back until May 1 at the earliest. In all honesty, I hope Chicago's pitchers are healthy. It'll make for a very exciting division.

Bryan: Confidence in Kerry, for most Chicagoans, has eroded. Something is mechanically wrong, and like Corey Patterson, I have a feeling he's too stubborn to fix it. Mark Prior has a chance at a full bill of health, but unless something dramatic changes, I don't think Kerry Wood does.

Rich: Listening to Steve Stone while watching Wood pitch was a can't miss for me. Maybe Stone and Baker should have switched places all these years?

Bryan: Don't tell the Cubs that, Rich, you'll have to start dodging punches. If Dusty Baker's one strength is motivation -- though I'm not sure it is -- the thought behind Stone is that quality would be his weakness.

Larry: Do the Cubs have lineup problems or simply a Dusty problem? They finished second in the league in slugging last year but were about 10th in OBP -- and not for lack of decent on-base skills on the roster. Does Hendry recognize this problem at all? And do you guys think anything can be done to change it, short of firing Dusty?

Bryan: For Dusty Baker to succeed, a General Manager needs to set him up not to fail. Jim Hendry hasn't, putting people like Neifi Perez on a team, giving him a chance to play. The team will have better OBP this year, but they are a few injuries from falling on their face. Murton and Ronny Cedeno will help, Pierre should provide a big lift, but it is by no imagination a good offense.

John: If anything, it's not just a Dusty problem, but a Cubs problem. The organization doesn't seem to believe in the importance of on-base percentage, instead concentrating much more on contact skills, power potential and the ability to catch the ball.

Larry: I've heard they are pursuing Tony Graffanino to play 2B. Would that provide any encouragement?

Bryan: It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Graffanino would simply be piling on top of Todd Walker and Jerry Hairston. It would really be odd if the Reds and Cubs entered the year with six combined capable (though that's a strong word for Tony Womack) second basemen.

John: Not at all, because the majority of Cub fans as I can see are at the very least satisfied with Todd Walker, who, while not great defensively and prone to saying a few stupid things, has a very solid bat for a second baseman.

Larry: But Dusty doesn't like him. Or doesn't seem to.

Bryan: I mentioned the Reds 2B problem, guys, and it's really just a bit in a damning resume that led to Dan O'Brien's firing. Before he left, he finally fixed the OF/1B logjam by acquiring mediocre pitcher Dave Williams, adding to the mediocrity and filth that makes up the pitching staff.

Rich: I'm not so sure O'Brien fixed that logjam. Cincy still has four outfielders plus it looks as if Scott Hatteberg might start at first base.

Bryan: Any reason for optimism in Cincy?

Larry: Not for a while. They do have some of the most interesting young players in the division. Felipe Lopez looks good, ditto Edwin Encarnacion. Looks like Wily Mo Pena will be a good roto player if not necessarily a good real-life hitter.

Rich: I'm not high on Pena at all. He struck out 224 times while accumulating 42 walks in approximately 700 plate appearances the past two years. PECOTA can fawn all over him as it wants, but I think he is overrated and unlikely to become a star player.

John: I'm not entirely sure Felipe Lopez' bat is for real, given his historical propensity to strike out and he's also a butcher of a shortstop.

Bryan: If ever there was a team that should be willing to sacrifice some defense for some above-average offense, it's the Reds. As a hitter, it seems Lopez, Jorge Cantu and Jhonny Peralta all broke through last year and enter the year with a lot of doubts, despite solid (if stagnated) minor league records. He's a good offensive player that probably won't get better than he was last year.

Larry: Their players draw a lot of interest. Austin Kearns, Pena, Lopez, and Adam Dunn are all pretty coveted. And Dunn's contract is considered to be highly moveable. So perhaps there's an opportunity to restructure the talent on that team.

John: The changes for the Reds have to come first via the farm system, and the outlook on that front isn't particularly bright at all. Trading away Adam Dunn isn't likely to be a profitable move for them.

Larry: Anybody think they can move Ken Griffey Jr.?

John: If there's even a chance of it, the Reds ought to be all over it. He's expensive, awful defensively, and it's only a matter of time, surely, before he gets injured again.

Bryan: Yes, but I'm not sure the return will be worth it. Kearns needs to come out of the gate hot, and then Krivsky can trade him and insert Chris Denorfia into the outfield.

Larry: Bryan, what do you think of Homer Bailey?

Bryan: For the Reds to be successful, the changes need to come from the farm system, like Bailey. This team needs to find a way to keep young pitchers healthy, and maximize their potential. It has been awhile since they've done that. Bailey's arm is fantastic, but this organization needs to change its methodology before I'm a full-fledged believer.

Larry: They do have a new owner who has ties to the Cardinal organization. If nothing else, I think a change in philosophy is in the offing in Cincinnati. Whether or not they will execute remains to be seen, but I would expect a new process of decision-making at the very least.

Bryan: The Reds are, like a lot of teams in baseball, simply a few years away. That's really the easy way to conclude, right?

John: Do you think enough of the Reds' system to say that they're only a few years away, Bryan? Or, do you have faith in their new GM to maintain a strong lineup while simultaneously finding all the pitching, and that's essentially about nine or ten members of that staff, that they need?

Bryan: Well, I'm stretching the word "few," John. It's a weak system, and a creative GM will need to work a lot of magic to fix this team.

Larry: With the wild card, one only needs to cobble together 88 wins to make the playoffs. And that can be done with a couple of decent trades, one free-agent pickup, and an unexpected year from one prospect. I could easily see them being competitive again by 2009 -- why not?

Bryan: After seeing what Doug Melvin has done in Milwaukee, I'll believe anything.

Rich: Oh, the Reds can be turned around. But it won't happen overnight, and it won't be easy. It's gonna take time and patience. Unfortunately, most of the talent at the big-league level is at the wrong end of the defensive spectrum, the pitching staff could be the worst in baseball, and the minor-league system is bereft of talent.

Bryan: The Pirates are another team a few years away, but seem to be the opposite of the Reds. There is a lot of hope in a young pitching staff that showed promise in 2005, but the offensive foundation isn't there. Your takes on the Bucs?

John: Put it this way, I'd rather be the Pirates than the Reds right now.

Larry: Why are they throwing money at Jeromy Burnitz and Roberto Hernandez and Sean Casey?

Bryan: You beat me to that question, Larry. I mean, did Dave Littlefield and Allard Baird come up with winter plans together? Spending money on overrated veterans is a sorry game.

John: That's not really a fair comparison. The Pirates are in a much more favorable situation relative to the Royals. On the pitching side of things there's a lot of promise, with Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Burnett. At some stage they're going to need to create an offense for these guys, and it's tough to put one together overnight. They should really start making preparations now.

Larry: Which is why the Casey and Burnitz signings were so mystifying. They need to find out of Brad Eldred can play.

Rich: I already know the answer. Eldred can't play. At least not at the major-league level. He'd make a good slow-pitch softball hitter, but that's about it.

Larry: And they need to create a trade market for Craig Wilson, or else stick him in left and take the .850 OPS. But he does them no good on the bench.

Bryan: Besides Jason Bay, there is no real lock on the club for a future division-winning ballclub starter. That puts this front office way behind the pack.

Larry: So why don't the Reds and Pirates get together? Send one or more of those young arms to the Reds in exchange for Kearns or Lopez or Encarnacion.

John: The Burnitz and Casey signings aren't particularly wise, but a pretense at respectability could potentially make it easier to attract the caliber of player they clearly need, as well as keep the fans around. As such, I don't think it's a completely misguided policy.

Bryan: Sort of the Detroit Tigers recent approach, John? I can see that, and it's one reason I so desperately hope Mark Cuban buys this team. It's a wonderful park, a baseball town.

John: Well, the Detroit Tigers took things to extremes: Magglio Ordonez, Troy Percival, Pudge Rodriguez. Those are expensive mistakes. The Pirates are being a lot more conservative, and that's the right way to go about things.

Bryan: Alright, that's fair. Let's talk about 2006, though. Is there any upside for 80-85 wins, or is this team just caught in the same boat they have found themselves in?

Larry: The division is too tough. They've got 70 games against St Louis, Chicago, Houston, and Milwaukee.

John: There's no upside for 2006 for the Pirates as far as I'm concerned. This is a two-tier division now.

Bryan: Yes, I don't see it either. But let me ask one final question, so Pirates fans don't hate me. Jason Bay. Is he the new Brian Giles, which is the most underrated player in baseball?

Larry: Bay is a great, great player. The Todd Helton of the NL Central. Put him in Coors, he'd post similar numbers, I think.

John: I can see that. Still, I think last season may wind up being the best that Jason Bay ever has.

Bryan: I guess we can just hope the Pirates don't give him a Todd Helton-esque contract and hang themselves.

Rich: Bay is underrated in the sense that he was 12th in the MVP voting last year when, in fact, a strong argument could be made that he deserved to finish in the top five. What's not to like? He played every game, hit over .300 with almost 100 BB while going yard 32 times and stealing 21 bases in 22 attempts.

Bryan: While Bay is just running into his prime, a former NL Central superstar, Jeff Bagwell, is running away from it. A lot of people seem to put stake in Bagwell's health as a reason for Houston winning or not winning a lot of games. I don't see it. I see Roger Clemens as that X-factor. Thoughts?

John: Right now the difference between Jeff Bagwell and a replacement player is next to nothing, so no, in terms of wins, I don't see it either.

Larry: They don't need Bagwell. Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio and Morgan Ensberg provide enough of an offensive core to support that pitching staff. Clemens will probably be back, and Houston will probably contend. Berkman's health is more of a factor, I think. Once he returned to the lineup last year, they scored pretty well.

John: Right, the Astros just don't need Bagwell, but mainly because he isn't particularly good any more, and he's extremely expensive. They do need more offense, though.

Bryan: Berkman's injury was a freak one, so he should be fine. My worry, if I liked Houston, would be when Craig Biggio and Andy Pettitte might start to decline. It has to be soon, right?

Larry: Pettitte looked better than ever last year. I think he could pitch at a high level for a few more years. And Biggio is a young 40. He's not an all-star, but as a 2B he still merits a starting job.

John: Last year will end up being the best year Andy Pettitte ever has, mark my words. Neither the numbers nor the stuff is there to support that kind of performance from him.

Rich: I disagree with you on both fronts, John. Pettitte has excellent stuff and his numbers stacked right up there with the best, especially once you adjust for the fact that he is a lefty working in a ballpark that is highly favorable to right-handed batters.

Larry: Do you guys think Pettitte still be good enough to form the corps of a contending staff for the next few years? That seems a pretty safe bet to me.

Bryan: I don't think so. I wrote off this signing when they made it, and I'll retract that statement (after having lost a bet to Rich, I should mention). But remember, this is a guy who used to be injured a lot, and if he goes on the DL, and Roy Oswalt does too, this team is not very good.

Rich: ...if, if hooray!

Larry: There was a lot of smoke regarding a Jose Contreras to Houston deal. That would be a very significant acquisition if it happened. And Contreras is bound to be dealt somewhere, isn't he?

Bryan: I could see it happening quickly if Clemens decides against returning, or going to Texas.

John: Oh my, what a phenomenal rotation they would have with Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte, Contreras and Brandon Backe, whom I like more than most.

Larry: Backe sure kills the Cardinals. Especially in October.

Bryan: It seems as if you both seem to like the Astros more than I do. It's a good lineup and rotation, I'll admit, but very volatile. After watching the Cubs for a few years, I treat volatility with kiddie gloves.

Larry: The Astros though are the anti-Cubs -- overachievers. Last year they were 15-30 toward the end of May, and they had every excuse to quit. Bagwell out for the season; Berkman injured; very low pre-season expectations. Somehow Garner got them going again and for the second straight year they rose from the dead. I figure they'll find a way to get themselves into position by September.

Rich: Just as the Brewers are tied to the right arm of Sheets, I think the Astros need Clemens if they are serious about playing more than 162 games this year.

Larry: Over the last four months of the year they played .632 ball and had the best record in the NL (74-43, 3 games better than St. Louis) and best run differential (+128). And then they went 7-3 in the playoffs against StL and Atlanta. If Clemens comes back in mid-June (as rumored), that entire team will be back -- and will have added Preston Wilson and possibly a healthier Bagwell.

John: I'm still just worried about that lineup. Outside of Berkman and Ensberg, it's pretty miserable, no?

Bryan: I like Jason Lane quite a bit, and some see something in Preston Wilson that I don't. Really, I just think it's too bad Chris Burke has been nudged out. It's not a good offense, probably fighting with the Cubs and Brewers for 3/4/5 in the division.

Larry: There are worse lineups. The Astros are above league-average hitters at first (Berkman), third (Ensberg), and second (Biggio). One loud bat in the outfield would go a long way. I don't think Wilson is it, though. But again, with their arms, who needs runs?

Bryan: Alright, so the consensus is positive about the Astros. Let's finish it up here, guys, with your predictions, 1-6.

Larry: Cards with 93 wins, Brewers 90, Astros 88, Cubs 85, Pirates 72, Reds 67.

Rich: With respect to predicting win totals in these previews, I'm always a bit amused when I see every division averaging more than 81 per team.

Bryan: I actually have the Brewers winning the Central by a game over the Cards in the final weekend. The Astros and Cubs battle it out for .500, with the Cubs winning 83, and the Astros an even .500. Pirates fifth, Reds last.

John: I actually struggle to see a 90-win team in the division. But I'll go with Cardinals at ninety wins, the Astros at 89, the Cubs at 88 and the Brewers at 87. Obviously, both the Pirates and Reds will be way below .500.

Rich: I like the Cardinals, followed by the Brewers, Cubs, Astros, Pirates, and Reds. If I'm wrong, it's probably because I have the Astros too low. So, Roger, what will it be?

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It's that time of the year again, folks. Time for us to dust off the ol' crystal ball and share our secrets of the upcoming baseball season with you. Our motto is that it's better to be early than late. Well, it's actually better to be right than early but anybody can pick 'em in October. I mean, why wait around when we've got the answers for you in February?

Like last year, we will discuss the divisions by starting in the Central, then moving to the West, and finishing with the East. In week number one, we break down the AL Central--home of the defending World Series champs, the Chicago White Sox.

Our Two on Two format consists of Rich and Bryan and two guests each week expert in that particular division. Today, we meet up with Aaron Gleeman and Chris aka The Cheat to discuss all things AL Central. Aaron writes about his hometown Minnesota Twins through Aaron Gleeman.com, while Chris covers the Chicago White Sox at South Side Sox.

Grab a Venti, pull up a chair, and enjoy.

Bryan: A year ago, we began our AL Central preview with a discussion about the division's weak reputation. A World Series championship and wild-card contender later, such criticism has disappeared. Do you guys think the AL Central has begun a climb up the rankings and, if so, how does it compare to the other divisions?

Aaron: I still think the AL East is usually a good bet to be the best division every year, but the AL Central is definitely in the conversation now. Given how horrible Kansas City is, the Central could have four teams seriously going for 80+ wins.

Cheat: The AL Central absolutely has climbed the rankings. They may have the best pitching of any division in baseball.

Rich: As much as I like the division, I like the league even more. The American League is much stronger than the National League. The team that finishes third in the AL Central could probably win the NL West and challenge for the senior circuit's wild-card berth.

Bryan: Yes, the White Sox, Indians, and Twins form the makings of a strong division.

Cheat: I think you need to include Detroit in the discussions also. They're no pushover.

Aaron: Yeah, I agree. I'm not sure Detroit has enough pitching, but their lineup could lead to 80-85 wins.

Cheat: You could even argue that because there are four solid teams, the Central may beat up on each other just enough to only get one team in the playoffs yet again.

Bryan: Frankly, I think the reasoning for this improvement are the front offices. Is there a better group -- besides KC -- of executives in baseball?

Aaron: It's an interesting mix. I think Terry Ryan and Kenny Williams each have their flaws, and I'm not sure Dave Dombrowski can really be considered good. Mark Shapiro is somewhat untested comparatively, but he's doing a nice job.

Cheat: I'm not sold on Dombrowski, but Williams has certainly improved. Ryan and Shapiro have proved that they can win with a small budget.

Rich: Ryan and Shapiro are well respected and deservingly so. But I've been impressed with Williams, too. Not because the Sox won the World Series so much, but in the fact that Kenny was bold enough to make changes this offseason after winning it all.

Aaron: The division is so dependent on money, in relation to the rest of the AL, it's hard to judge everything properly. I mean, Minnesota has done well on a small budget, but they're competing with KC, Cleveland, and Detroit, with somewhat small budgets. And Chicago did well on a medium-sized budget, but they are outspending everyone else in the division.

Bryan: What's interesting is how volatile a few of the ownerships seem to be with money. Both the ownership groups in Cleveland and Detroit are willing to spend money on winners, which puts their GMs in a weird situation: right in the gray area of the buyers/sellers market.

Aaron: Right. The advantage they have is that once a rebuilding effort is nearly complete, the checkbooks can open up. Whereas Minnesota never has that.

Cheat: The White Sox are in the process of making themselves into a large-market club, one that spends $100+M each year. And Detroit has vowed to spend money. I'll be interested to see how Minnesota continues to compete with Cleveland looking like they may be able to add payroll in the future, too.

Aaron: If a team in the Central consistently spends $100 million, I think they'll win it most years. That extra $25-30 mill is just tough to overcome long term.

Rich: I don't know about "most years," but, yes, the team that spends the most money should win it more often than any other club.

Bryan: It's tough to consistently have player development success stories like the Twins have had recently.

Cheat: The one thing the White Sox have done, and I know Bryan has something to say about this, is deplete their farm system of top-level talent on their way to a big budget. That could hurt down the line.

Aaron: Right, but if you suddenly add $25 million to the payroll, prospects suddenly aren't as important.

Bryan: It certainly creates the risk of getting old, but the White Sox don't seem to be there--unlike maybe the Mets--quite yet. They can stay with this team for maybe two to three years before a huge decline sets in.

Aaron: Yeah, aside from Jim Thome they don't have a ton of really old guys.

Cheat: Agreed. The key will be letting go of the right guys each trading deadline and offseason.

Bryan: Well, Cheat, one real question entering the season is if they are letting the right guy into the rotation. Brandon McCarthy will likely start the year in the bullpen, despite the fact that he was probably the #2 starter in the second half. Mistake?

Cheat: The one thing I'm worried about with McCarthy is how he'll react to throwing from the 'pen. I don't know what the stress of throwing every day will do to his long and lean frame. I would rather he threw every five-to-six days.

Rich: The one thing I'm worried about with McCarthy is the number of home runs he allowed last year (13 in 67 IP).

Aaron: I was surprised that they added Javier Vazquez and then also kept Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. Vazquez doesn't seem like much of an upgrade, if any, over McCarthy.

Rich: It's a cliche, but you can never have too much pitching.

Bryan: Well, I guess it depends whether Ozzie can still have the Midas touch in regards to the pitching staff. There was no better manager at that trait in 2005 than Guillen.

Cheat: The Sox also seem to think that McCarthy will get anywhere between 10-20 starts. They seem abnormally worried about their pitchers' workload from the playoff run and the upcoming WBC.

Aaron: Well, the odds of making it through a whole year with five starters is pretty slim. So I bet he'll get more than a dozen starts.

Cheat: I think the Sox have done a good job of targeting workhorses who don't go on the DL. I think only Vazquez and Freddy Garcia have ever been on the DL, and both for very limited time.

Aaron: That's the strength, and then that makes the bullpen even stronger.

Cheat: Well, I'm not as confident about the bullpen.

Bryan: The bullpen lost a few arms last year, and again enters the year dependent on some volatile players, like Dustin Hermanson.

Aaron: I think Bobby Jenks will have some rough patches, but I like Jeff Bajenaru as a potential new guy.

Cheat: Cliff Politte and Hermanson are very unlikely to repeat their performances, and Neal Cotts and Jenks are still young guys who walk a lot of batters.

Aaron: Right, but Jenks, Politte, McCarthy, Hermanson, Cotts, and maybe Bajenaru is a strong group.

Cheat: The White Sox don't have as much faith in Bajenaru as you do, Aaron. He'll be lucky to be the 12th man in the pen.

Aaron: Really? He seems like he's earned a shot.

Bryan: Thinking Baj isn't as good as the horrendous group of LOOGYs they brought to camp is foolish. Although I agree the White Sox might be in that school of thought.

Cheat: I agree with that sentiment, but it appears that he'll be competing with Sean Tracey and Tim Redding for the 12th spot. He should earn that spot though.

Aaron: Also, on the pitching in general, it may look a little worse this year simply because the defense might not be as good.

Cheat: Paul Konerko had a great year (for him) defensively, and Brian Anderson replaces Aaron Rowand. But aside from that, they should be about equal there.

Bryan: You would have to think there would be regression to the mean in that regard. The difference between Rowand and Anderson might be a problem, too.

Aaron: Right, that's mostly what I'm thinking. And it'll be even bigger if Rob Mackowiak plays a lot out there. But they'll still be good defense, just maybe not insanely good like they were last year.

Bryan: With the Anderson-Rowand swap, and Thome replacing Carl Everett, the team seems to have been willing to sacrifice a bit of defense for offense. How much better is this group than the April 2005 offense?

Rich: Not much, if at all. Other than the likely improvement at DH, I wouldn't expect the Sox to get more production anywhere else.

Aaron: I think Thome will have a pretty big year, but I'm not sure their offense in center field will be any better.

Cheat: Brian Anderson is Eric Byrnes long-lost twin. They look alike, play alike, and even have the same humor in interviews.

Bryan: Is playing like Eric Byrnes a compliment anymore, or no?

Cheat: It's not an indictment. It's passable for a rookie, I suppose. One who's not being counted on to carry the team.

Rich: If Anderson is Byrnes, it had better be the 2004 version or else the Sox are in trouble.

Aaron: Also, everyone seems to be talking up Mackowiak as a really good player, but he's not a good hitter. If Chicago loses a key guy for a while to an injury, their depth is somewhat thin.

Bryan: Definitely, though Williams has never been slow to make a trade in that regard.

Cheat: Mackowiak is one of the streakiest hitters in the game. So is Joe Crede, however, so it may be a good fit.

Rich: Or a bad fit. I hope Guillen doesn't try to play the so-called "hot hand" until it turns cold because that is a heckuva lot harder to do in practice than in theory. You end up "shooting behind the ducks" and the end result is usually worse than if you just left the cold guy in and play his way out of any slump.

Bryan: The key to the offense, for me at least, seems to be Joe Crede. Is this guy going to continue the step he made after some work in September, or will he continue to be as inconsistent as we all have seen in the past?

Cheat: Yeah, I agree. I think the key is the whole left side of the infield. Uribe will bat in the #2 hole in spring training, to see if it's something he can handle. I'm expecting big things from both Crede and Juan Uribe.

Aaron: I think he's more or less proven that he's a pretty mediocre hitter. I don't know that a good few weeks at the right time changes that.

Cheat: Crede did change his swing late last year. If he carries that over, he will be a different hitter.

Aaron: I'm curious to see if Tadahito Iguchi improves in his second year, but beyond that any offensive gains will probably come from Thome. A bigger key will be Konerko maintaining his production.

Bryan: Well, as much as this offense may have improved, it's pretty much a given that they will fall short of the group in Cleveland. If the Indians can avoid an offensive slump in April, they could outslug this division by a lot.

Aaron: Actually, I wouldn't bet on Cleveland's offense being much better than last year's. Where is an improvement coming from, aside from young guys potentially developing a little more?

Cheat: I might take a Chi vs. Cle HR vs. HR bet, but I'll concede that they have a better offense overall.

Aaron: The Indians are weak at the corners and very strong up the middle, which is an odd sort of arrangement. By the end of the year I could see Ryan Garko starting over Ben Broussard at first base, Andy Marte starting over Aaron Boone at third base, and Casey Blake and/or Jason Michaels being on the bench.

Rich: While it may be odd, it certainly is a lot easier to replace players on the left side of the defensive spectrum than the right.

Aaron: Yeah, having such strength up the middle, especially with young building blocks, will make it a lot easier for Cleveland to improve via trade during the year. It's not too difficult to find a solid first baseman or left fielder at midseason, but it's almost impossible to get your hands on a good-hitting shortstop or catcher.

Cheat: I will be really interested to see what they do with Marte.

Bryan: I guess I'm not the believer in Cleveland that some are, however. Aaron hit it on the head. They are just too weak at about three key positions to have an elite offense, and there is no elite part of the team.

Cheat: I think Grady Sizemore can continue to improve. I love the way that kid plays.

Bryan: Sizemore is fantastic. In two or three years, I could see him being one of the two or three best players in the division. And what's surprising is that it might not even be bold to say that anymore.

Aaron: I like Sizemore too, but it'd be asking a lot for him to do much better than he did last season. Same with Jhonny Peralta. It's dangerous to just assume young guys will be better every year.

Cheat: Yeah, I'm not that high on Peralta. He was amazing last year, but I just don't see him matching that output again.

Rich: I don't think the Indians need to improve their hitting or pitching. They just need to distribute their runs a bit better. To wit, Cleveland was 22-36 in one-run games and 34-14 in games that ended with a margin of victory or defeat of five runs or more.

Cheat: Yeah, they have that AL Central Pythagorean Championship banner to raise, right?

Aaron: The White Sox had that one for a while, I think. A few years running.

Cheat: Those are hollow titles to hold. It sure does feel better with the real thing.

Bryan: Cleveland's pitching staff is questionable, especially the bullpen. I don't see a way in which Bob Wickman is the same pitcher as last year, and they lost key arms in David Riske, Bobby Howry and Arthur Rhodes.

Cheat: I did like what I saw of Fernando Cabrera at the end of last season.

Aaron: They still have Rafael Betancourt, who is underrated. And Guillermo Mota's health is probably a pretty big key. But yeah, I wouldn't bet on them giving up under 650 runs again, either, I guess.

Bryan: While we all might agree Kevin Millwood was overpaid this winter, we have to recognize they lost the AL leader in ERA. And as valuable as Jason Johnson and Paul Byrd might be on the dollar, they lost an ace.

Aaron: Yep. Although I like Jeremy Sowers as a midseason fill-in.

Cheat: As a White Sox fan, I'm upset that Byrd is in the division. They always seem befuddled by him. Johnson is another story, however. At least he didn't cost much, and may have some upside.

Aaron: I don't think Johnson will be very good, but I liked the Byrd signing.

Cheat: The only solid defense I've seen of the Johnson signing was his DIPS numbers stacked beside Garland's.

Bryan: As much as the White Sox and Indians did this winter, the Twins did very, very little. Rondell White and Tony Batista?

Aaron: Don't forget Luis Castillo. He's the big one. Or non-small one, I guess. They've had such horrible second basemen that Castillo represents a pretty huge improvement.

Cheat: Castillo was a great addition, especially for what they gave up.

Aaron: I liked that move a lot. White, I'm sort of lukewarm on, and I think the whole Batista thing is a disaster. They essentially promised him the third-base job, which later kept them from going after Corey Koskie at a discount price.

Bryan: Of the contenders in the majors, no one has a worse left side than the Twins. The lack of any attempt to improve this group is quite damning.

Cheat: Jason Bartlett looked like a young Cal Ripken when he played the White Sox last season. He must have been pretty bad when I wasn't watching, because I really liked what I saw.

Aaron: If they play any large part of the season with Batista at 3B and Juan Castro at SS, it's a pretty big mark against Terry Ryan's understanding of offense building. I like Bartlett, but he looked rough at times last year. But I think he's a good defender and can get on base.

Cheat: If only Jason Kubel could play infield, right?

Bryan: We talked about the Indians depending upon improvement from youngsters, which is also exactly what the Twins are doing. However, for as difficult as it will be for Peralta to improve on his numbers, Justin Morneau almost has to.

Rich: Justin needs to be More Yes this year than More No.

Aaron: Right. Morneau is a big key. But they also need comebacks from Shannon Stewart, and health from Torii Hunter and Kubel. The Twins have a ton of question marks throughout the lineup, so they could go either way.

Bryan: But what's the upside? Third in the division offensively?

Aaron: It'll never be a great offense, but they really only need it to be an average one.

Cheat: They probably have the fourth best offense, but even a passable offense can get by with their pitching.

Bryan: Pitching, pitching, pitching. Terry Ryan essentially put the pressure on the staff to be as good as the White Sox to succeed. But I think they could conceivably do it.

Aaron: Here's what bothered me. They are spending $4 mill on Kyle Lohse and giving Batista the third-base job. Why not spend $4 mill on a decent 3B and give Francisco Liriano Lohse's spot?

Rich: Free Francisco Liriano, huh?

Aaron: I might have to start one up, but I have some patience. If he's still at Triple-A in July I might have a new cause. I started complaining about them keeping Johan Santana in the bullpen after a few years.

Rich: Yes, we all remember your pleas, Aaron. You were right, of course, but maybe Ryan believes Johan benefited by not being rushed.

Aaron: There's a difference between not being rushed and what the Twins did. I'm not clamoring for every young pitcher to be given a rotation spot immediately. Santana was in the bullpen for the bulk of four seasons. I'm willing to wait three months for Liriano.

Bryan: The Twins seem hesitant to depend too much on young players, which is odd because it runs counter to the philosophy that won them division championships.

Cheat: There's definitely been some questionable decisions by the front office, but they still have the pitching that will keep them in the division until September.

Aaron: Right. I always say that the Twins are good at the big picture of team-building, like developing young talent, but then they are sub par at the little stuff, like utilizing it. Their track record of helping young hitters develop is also very questionable.

Bryan: Dave Dombrowski was brought to Detroit because he was supposedly good at "the big picture of team building." However, in his time with Detroit, we haven't seen that. Many point to this year as the season they begin to contend. Do you guys see it?

Aaron: Dombrowski confuses me, because he always seems to be halfway between two plans. But I do think they have a chance to be surprisingly decent this year. Their pitching still stinks though.

Cheat: They're a mirror image of the Twins. The offense will be good, but they have to hope for some improvement in the pitching staff.

Aaron: I don't see it unless Justin Verlander immediately becomes an ace. I mean, who are they counting on improvements from? Kenny Rogers? Mike Maroth? Nate Robertson?

Bryan: Well, it's that time of the year for the inevitable Jeremy Bonderman breakout talk. It's also the time of the year for me to believe it.

Cheat: If Bonderman was a stock, I'd be buying right about now.

Aaron: He's yet to post a league-average ERA in three seasons, but of course he's only 23. I really like Bonderman, Verlander, and Joel Zumaya long term, but I doubt they'll be ready this year.

Bryan: Yeah, it seems like Dombrowski needs to start planning for 2008. Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez won't be the guys to see good teams in Detroit.

Rich: I don't know what or even if Pudge was seeing last year. Did I mention that he struck out 93 times while drawing 11 walks? He had a .270 OBP in the second half. C'mon, the guy is D-O-N-E.

Bryan: I certainly wouldn't want an offense dependent upon Carlos Guillen, Pudge and Maggs. Talk about declines on the horizon?

Cheat: A full year of Maggs, Placido Polanco, and Curtis Granderson over Nook Logan, and they'll have a fine offense. Pudge was so much fun to watch last year when he got to two strikes. He swung at everything.

Bryan: My question is this: is Carlos Pena as bad as people think this year? Chris Shelton is certainly better, but Pena could give a good 300-400 ABs if he had the right platoon partner.

Aaron: I don't think Pena is bad at all. He's an average first baseman, all things considered. The expectations for Shelton might be a little high at this point.

Cheat: Pena would be a good fit for a team like the Royals. Shelton was a bit of a surprise to me last season. I wouldn't look for him to improve too much this season.

Bryan: I agree, and I'll throw Brandon Inge into that same fire. The two are solid players but have very little star power.

Aaron: Right. Detroit doesn't have any real stars, but I could see them being average or better at every position.

Bryan: Seems to me the Twins and Tigers will be battling for having the third and fourth offenses in the division, but the Twins strength in pitching puts them way ahead.

Cheat: I'd rate the Tigers offense ahead of the Twins, but your point still stands. The difference in pitching is too much to overcome.

Bryan: It seems funny to say that in the AL Central that a good offense and mediocre pitching staff doesn't have a ton of hope for third. That's new.

Aaron: Yeah. This Tigers team could have competed for the division title a couple years ago.

Bryan: One certainty has not changed in the AL Central: the Kansas City Royals will finish fifth. Again, we have to talk about them, so let me ask: is there value in a veteran movement like they've made?

Aaron: I don't really see much value. It always struck me that if you're going to stink like KC will and the fans are going to hate it anyway, why not bank some of that money for the future? You know, instead of spending it on guys who might help the team go from 65 to 70 wins.

Cheat: There might be some economic value in it. I mean if you can draw 2M fans because you might reach 70 wins, then I suppose it's worth it.

Rich: The Royals would need the Million-Man March to go through Kauffman Stadium to get their attendance that high.

Aaron: Adding someone like Reggie Sanders might be helpful in three or four years, but it does nothing now.

Bryan: And blocks Chip Ambres from showing that he can be a pretty decent player.

Aaron: Right. I think they rushed quite a few guys too quickly last year, and now they're going to block quite a few other guys in 2006. It makes no sense. Why is Justin Huber at Triple-A? And what does having Doug Mientkiewicz instead of him accomplish, exactly?

Bryan: Well, we all know how important the Royals defense is to their success this year. C'mon, Aaron.

Cheat: The Royals off-season is emblematic of a larger problem that's facing baseball. The small market teams don't have much incentive to win when they can make a hefty profit via revenue sharing. It seems like MLB clamped down and made them spend the money this year, but all that did was drive up the market for middling veteran talent.

Rich: It's pretty sad when a team goes out and signs Elmer Dessens, Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, and thinks they are doing something to improve their pitching. I mean, these guys were found on the rack at Filene's Basement this winter.

Aaron: They have a nice bullpen, though. Sort of like having "a nice personality," but still.

Bryan: That's definitely the strength. Andy Sisco, Ambiorix Burgos, Leo Nunez even, these are the guys the Royals should be marketing rather than a bunch of meaningless vowels.

Rich: Well, with their rotation, the relievers might throw more innings than the starters this year.

Bryan: Zack Greinke, Andrew Miller, J.P. Howell, Denny Bautista. This is the future of the KC rotation.

Cheat: It doesn't look intimidating by any means. They need to be in full rebuilding mode, like the Marlins. Though at least the Marlins have a few top guys to build around.

Rich: I heard you, Bryan. Andrew Miller. Nice.

Aaron: They really need to see some big strides from young guys like Greinke, and then decide who to keep around when the next wave (Huber, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, etc.) arrive, but I don't have confidence in Baird making the right choices.

Cheat: If Greinke was a stock, I wouldn't be buying, but I'd probably miss the boat. They've got a few young guys with potential. I think the season should just be about finding out who can play and who can't.

Aaron: They could have four good hitters in a year or so, with David DeJesus being #4, but the pitching looks brutal.

Rich: Patience, my friends. So they've lost 100 or more games in three of the last four years and have had only one winning season since the strike in 1994. These things take tiiiiiiiiiiiiime.

Bryan: Not trading Mike Sweeney this winter was just such an odd choice. Fine, if the Angels won't trade Howie Kendrick, take Erick Aybar. They aren't in the position to hold out for blue chippers.

Cheat: Again that comes down to economics. Trading Sweeney would have been a terrible PR move by the Royals. They would have trouble drawing 10K on the weekends without Sweeney.

Aaron: Nah, I don't buy that for a second. How much worse can their PR get? A diehard fan like Rob Neyer has basically disowned the franchise.

Cheat: It's not because of Mike Sweeney. It's because Sweeney is the one good player who the common fan can identify. If they trade him, after a 56 win season, it's interpreted as giving up before the next season even starts.

Aaron: Right, but I don't think Royals fans are even optimistic enough to care about that.

Bryan: Alright guys, enough Royals before I get sick. Let's close this out. What is your projected order of the division in 2006?

Aaron: It's a tough division to predict. I'd say probably Chicago, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City, but I'd give the first three at least a 25% chance of each winning.

Cheat: Chicago: 92 wins. Cleveland: 91. Minnesota: 87. Detroit: 82. KC: 63.

Rich: I'm not sure the division is good enough to average 83 wins. That seems a bit much to me. No way the Tigers and Royals combine for 18 more victories.

Cheat: Like you, Rich, I think the AL is clearly superior to the NL once again. The AL Central plays the NL Central in interleague this year. They'd have to beat up on the NL Central the way they did the NL West to post those records, but I don't think it's impossible.

Bryan: I agree with the same order as Aaron and Cheat, but I say Chicago wins the division by five games, at least.

Cheat: I'd like to agree, Bryan, but the Sox fan in me has trouble being that optimistic.

Rich: Well, I hate to be the party pooper here, but I'm going with Cleveland, followed by Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, and Kansas City.

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Today marks the first anniversary of the birth of Baseball Analysts. Although the origins of Baseball Beat and Wait 'Til Next Year date back to 2003, the merged entity began on February 22, 2005.

When we started this site, we promised to "examine the past, present and future" of baseball. Our partnership was no coincidence either. As colleagues, we realized our interests and expertise covered a wide array of baseball, ranging from college to the minor leagues to the majors. For example, during the past year, we covered the College World Series and the amateur draft like few other websites. We also covered the MLB postseason, the Rule 5 Draft, and the top 30 free agents.

While Rich is well-known for making a Hall of Fame case for Bert Blyleven, Bryan's focus was his top prospect list in January. Whether arguing on behalf of new or ignored statistics, or taking an in-depth look at baseball's scouting directors, we have tried to cover a little bit of everything in a year.

We promised to have daily articles, up to six times a week. With few exceptions, this goal has been achieved. Although it's difficult for the two of us to keep up with the volume of some other terrific baseball sites out there, our focus has been on emphasizing quality in the single article that we post each day.

Fittingly, our website started with Rich's wonderful "Who Was Your Favorite Player Growing Up?" series. This was the start of Baseball Analysts being home to dozens of voices in different styles. In this particular feature, Rich was able to garner memories from 38 well-known writers on their past as a fan. Rich then followed this series up with one of his most high-profile interviews, Breakfast With Bill James -- a three-part series which was the culmination of his Abstracts From The Abstracts series in 2004 through early 2005.

Baseball Analysts has allowed us to provide some of the most unique features of any site on the Internet. Our "Designated Hitter" series has proven to be among the most popular and has become a must read. We have been fortunate to garner guest articles from 47 different writers in the past year, covering a wide array of topics. Kevin Kernan forged the path for mainstream media to partner up with us, volunteering to write a guest column when the DH was in its infancy. J.C. Bradbury authored one of the most widely quoted sabermetric studies, while Alex Belth made us cry with a personal tribute to a dear friend. Eric Neel shared his touching Growing Up With Vin Scully column, Matt Welch wrote a fun story about fellow band member and journeyman Dave Hansen, and Bob Klapisch delivered some of the year's best prose in From the Press Box to the Pitcher's Mound.

We owe a hearty thanks to each participant of this series who has poured his or her heart and soul into writing, for free, at our site. You are all a part of this site's success, and we tip our caps to you for doing your part in raising the bar of baseball journalism.

Contributors have also had their voices heard in a couple of other features, such as the Two on Two or What Went Wrong series. Last year, the free-flowing Two on Two series allowed us to have 12 different writers help in previewing the upcoming season. In the What Went Wrong series, several more writers assisted us in reviewing the regular season and postseason. Look for Baseball Analysts to continue running these informative and entertaining discussions in 2006, starting with the AL Central preview this Friday. We believe in the strength in numbers and have tried to utilize the expertise of dozens of knowledgeable and generous writers/analysts.

We would also like to extend a thanks to the dozens of individuals all over baseball's blogosphere to write about or simply link work that has been published on this site. In today's Internet world, traffic is built through links and partnering with other writers. We have been lucky enough to have so many of you -- too many to name, in fact -- direct your readers to this site. We appreciate each and every referral.

Most of all, however, we owe a thanks to you, the reader. Your daily visits, comments, and e-mail provide our motivation, while your dissents broaden our horizons. We feel the Baseball Analysts readership is as intelligent as any on the Internet, and we appreciate each response we receive. In the coming year, we sincerely hope to meet and exceed your expectations.

For both of us, the last year has been a dream from which we can't wake up. We would never have imagined to be on Peter Gammons' reading list, linked in the New York Times, or mentioned in a number of other mainstream newspaper articles. There was no way we could have envisioned this success a year ago.

In Year Two, our goal is to simply push forward. Thank you for your loyalty and support.

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As spring training approaches, one of the most fun things to do as a fan is to project which players are the likeliest to breakout or regress in the coming season.

Let's face it, you can write down what Albert Pujols is going to do now. When it's all said and done, he's going to be right around .330/.420/.620 with 40 HR and 125 R and RBI.

If you have the first pick in your fantasy pool, take Pujols. Heck, that's a no brainer. But who should you take when rounds 11-20 roll around? Anybody can identify Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, and Mark Teixeira as the best, young hitting studs in the game. But which lesser-known players have the potential of stepping up and making a difference for their big league club or your fantasy league team in 2006?

Conversely, which well-known players have the potential of imploding, causing anguish for the owners of those teams--real or make believe?

Well, we've decided to take the plunge. Each of us is going on record by naming two players who have it in them to take it up a couple of notches plus two more who could fall off the cliff.

Rich: I'm going to stick to two players who I have already identified in the past as players I believe are going to make the greatest advances from one year to the next. My first pick is a pitcher. He's a big pitcher in stature, and I think he is going to put up big numbers as well. His name? Daniel Cabrera.

I've extolled Cabrera's virtues a few times since last summer when he began to give us a glimpse of the pitcher he is capable of becoming. If there is one combination of pitching stats I like more than any other, it is strikeouts and groundballs. Show me a guy who can whiff batters and induce grounders and I will tell you about Chris Carpenter, A.J. Burnett, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Halladay, and...Daniel Cabrera.

There is no doubting the Baltimore right-hander's stuff. His fastball sits in the mid- to high-90s and has been known to reach the triple digits. In fact, Cabrera threw more pitches that hit 100 or more on the Stalker Sport radar guns than anyone else. He was second in the majors when it came to hitting 95+. Number one? Mr. Burnett, the $55 million man. Just for fun, I'll tell you who was #2 in the NL -- Carlos Zambrano.

Have you noticed a pattern here? Big, strong pitchers who can throw heavy gas tend to get their fair share of strikeouts and groundballs. And when pitchers do that, they generally don't give up very many home runs. Carpenter and Halladay have won Cy Young awards. Don't bet against either Burnett, Zambrano, or Cabrera taking home the hardware this year.

My second pick is a hitter. He just happens to play on the same team as Cabrera. Call me an Orioles fan if you'd like, just be sure not to take these two players ahead of me in my fantasy league draft.

As I wrote in Digging Deeper Into The Handbook in December, "If you're looking for someone who might take it up a notch or two next year, consider Jay Gibbons. He was the only [player other than Vladimir Guerrero] who hit more than 15 HR (26) and ranked in the top ten in lowest strikeout rate per plate appearance (.108). The Baltimore OF/1B/DH doesn't field or run all that well, but he still has further upside when it comes to mashing the ball. Consider this: Gibbons was 31st in the AL in RC/G with just a .268 batting average on balls in play. You have to go all the way down to the 63rd batter (Nick Swisher) to find someone with a lower BABIP."

Look for Gibbons to hit .280-.290 with about 40 doubles and 30-35 home runs. He'll make a nifty mid- to late-round draft selection in your fantasy draft. You can thank me after he puts up those numbers.

Bryan: Good picks, Rich. If you're right, and the Orioles have two big players break out, the AL East could be (again?) the most difficult division in baseball. And, of course, you forgot to mention that Cabrera has another plus on his resume: Leo Mazzone. As J.C. Bradbury showed on our site, the great pitching coach tends to have a positive effect on pitchers. With a little bit of the fastball control that Mazzone teaches so well, I think you're right, Cabrera should have a big 2006.

One other problem that Mazzone has to deal with is finding a closer amidst a group containing Chris Ray and LaTroy Hawkins. And they will be one of many teams shuffling between ninth-inning pitchers during Spring Training. Given the importance of saves on a fantasy team, finding a sleeper closer is much like having drafted Willie Parker in fantasy football this year. Therefore, my break out choice is Blaine Boyer of the Mazzone's old team, the Atlanta Braves.

Last year, Bobby Cox was forced to shuffle between the likes of Danny Kolb, Chris Reitsma and Kyle Farnsworth to close out games. Don't expect him to take long to make a decision this year. The candidates? Reitsma, again, Joey Devine and Boyer. Given Reitsma's lack of success in the role, Davine's lack of success in any role, and Boyer's good stuff, he should get the job. Then, watch as his 95+ mph fastball and hammer curve gains a lot of saves and a good enough ERA, WHIP and K/9. Even if he doesn't repeat a 3.11 ERA, his fantasy profile will improve that much more when he adds 25 saves.

My second pick should be a very good bench choice for keeper leaguers this year. The Padres outfield situation is very clouded this coming year, but they have shown confidence in Ben Johnson in the past. While Johnson is infamous within Padre crowds for a bad playoff performance last year, the focus should really be on Bruce Bochy's confidence to play the then 24-year-old. This season Johnson currently stands behind Dave Roberts and alongside Terrmel Sledge, but with a trade of Roberts, it isn't hard to conceive the idea of Johnson getting 500 AB.

Before the playoffs last year, Johnson had just 88 plate appearances. His .213/.310/.467 line wasn't exactly awe-inspiring, but beneath the surface, there is certainly reason for optimism. For one, Johnson's line drive percentage was an astounding 26.4% in his cup of coffee last year. The Hardball Times has done loads of research on line drives, but the general conclusion is that the more lines drives, the better. And to put Johnson's number in context, had he qualified for the NL, his mark would have ranked second overall.

Conversely, Johnson's BABIP last year was just .267. When considering his line drive percentage, it's shocking to have a BABIP rate that low, especially given Johnson's plus speed. In fact, only 37 players in the National League had LD% over twenty last year, and just seven had BABIP rates below .300. Of those seven, just two (David Bell, Mike Lowell) were under .270. So not only does Johnson's hit rates mean he should hit for increased power, but his average should go up as well.

If your league uses OBP as a statistic, Johnson is an even better selection, given his high walk rate. As is, I think Johnson is very (optimistically) capable of a batting average around .280 and 20 home runs given the opportunity. The question remains, however, will Johnson have an opportunity? Those are my far out choices, Rich. Who do you think might regress in 2006?

Rich: On the downside, I'm going to once again pick one pitcher and one hitter. Both players are changing teams this year. One is going to a more favorable ballpark and the other is going to a less favorable environment. My first choice is Jarrod Washburn. He is the opposite of Cabrera. Washburn is a lefty, Cabrera is a righty. Jarrod doesn't strike out many hitters nor induce a lot of groundballs, whereas Daniel makes a habit of doing both.

One would think that Washburn, coming off a year in which he had a 3.20 ERA and moving to pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, would be a good bet to become one of the top hurlers in the game. Wrong. His stats last year were very deceiving. His DIPS ERA was 4.55. The ratio of DIPS ERA/actual ERA (1.42) was the highest in the AL. I wouldn't be surprised if he won more games this year--it would be hard not to exceed his eight victories with the Angels--but his ERA is going to top 4.00 in 2006.

I feel guilty choosing Alfonso Soriano as my hitter. It's no secret that the second baseman (outfielder?) is going from one of the best to one of the worst ballparks for hitters. But, hey, I'll take a lay-up when I can get it. No use trying to tomahawk a slam dunk just to get on ESPN when I can kiss it off the glass and into the net nice and easy.

Besides, anybody making $10M-$12M per year who hits just .260/.300/.450 with 15-18 HR (as I predict) deserves to be recognized for his ineptness as much as the general manager who traded for him. You know, the same guy who acquired Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman last year and the 36-year-old Royce Clayton a few days ago because he wants to be sure he's got a backup in case his starting shortstop goes .219/.260/.314 again.

Bryan: I'm going to stick in the middle infield with the first of my selections: Carlos Guillen. After leaving Seattle for Detroit before the 2004 season, Guillen broke out in a big way: .326/.391/.562. Last year, I was pretty sure Guillen would take a big step backwards and fall apart. I was wrong. While Guillen was injury plagued for much of the season, he did manage to hit .320/.368/.434 in 334 at-bats.

Next year, Guillen will be 30 years old. He will be coming off a second half in which he hit .255/.317/.364. He will have to deal with the rigors of not having a BABIP of .360. The signs are there: Carlos is going to regress. PECOTA, the genius prediction system of Baseball Prospectus, doesn't see a lot of optimism for Guillen next year. BP sees Guillen hitting .286 next year with nine home runs and 50 RBI in 438 plate appearances. More importantly, the Tiger is given only a 6% chance to "breakout" of those numbers against a 36% chance to "collapse." Without going into detail on what those percentages mean, I can tell you that it isn't good. Despite his shortstop eligibility, stay away from Guillen in your fantasy draft.

By signing Billy Wagner this winter, the Mets not only made themselves better, but they also worsened a division rival in the Philadelphia Phillies. With Wagner heading off to greener pastures, the Phillies looked to the next-best option available, and thus signed Tom Gordon. This move is certainly seen as a step backwards already, but I predict that in three years, it will be an atrocious trade off. After years of being among the best set-up men in baseball, I'm predicting Gordon falls apart in his first year back in the closer role.

Before joining the Yankees in 2004, Gordon was hardly a staple of health. In the five years prior, he had just two full seasons in relief, two seasons in which he pitched under 45 innings, and one more in which he was under 20 IP. With the Yankees the last two seasons, Joe Torre rode Gordon as hard as any reliever in baseball. The writing is on the wall: Gordon is not a dependable closer. Furthermore, Gordon has three straight years with a falling K/9 rate. He's moving to a smaller stadium. He has a worse team behind him. His FIP last year was 3.72. Again, don't be the one caught in drafting Tom Gordon, the results can't be good.

Do you agree or disagree with our choices? If the latter, who would you pick?

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In the past week during our College Baseball Preview, we have mentioned hundreds of names that will affect the outcome of the 2006 baseball season. Today, it's time to find the best of the best and honor those players with selections among the Baseball Analysts All-American team.

Unlike most All-American squads, our polling was not extensive to get names, as we just used the five people that contributed to the preview this week. While this means we won't have second and third teams like Baseball America or Collegiate Baseball, it's unlikely you'll find our list to be much different than the norm.

Without further ado, here's a look at the 2006 Baseball Analysts All-American squad:

C - Chad Tracy - Pepperdine
1B - Matt LaPorta - Florida
2B - Jim Negrych - Pittsburgh
SS - Evan Longoria - Long Beach State
3B - Wes Hodges - Georgia Tech
OF - Shane Robinson - Florida State
OF - Drew Stubbs - Texas
OF - Brennan Boesch - California
DH - Mark Hamilton - Tulane

And a look at the pitching staff:

SP - Andrew Miller - North Carolina
SP - Max Scherzer - Missouri
SP - Ian Kennedy - Southern California
RP - Blair Erickson - UC Irvine

And a look at the honorable mention squad, which includes players who received votes but were not in the majority:

C - J.P. Arencibia - Tennessee
1B - Joe Savery - Rice
2B - Taylor Harbin - Clemson
2B - Adam Davis - Florida
SS - Jason Donald - Arizona
OF - Colin Curtis - Arizona State
OF - Nathan Southard - Tulane
SP - Kyle McCulloch - Texas
RP - Derrik Lutz - George Washington
RP - Brett Jensen - Nebraska

And finally, we asked all our participants to pick the outcome of the College World Series. Unsurprisingly, each person polled selected Texas as the team to become repeat winners of the National Championship. However, opinions varied on the team that Texas would close it out against.

However, majority rules, and in this polling, Baseball Analysts will select North Carolina as the team that falls short to the Texas Longhorns in the CWS finals. However, don't be surprised if a traditionally great program like Cal State Fullerton, or a darkhorse like the Pepperdine Waves make a splash and reach the finals.

Formally, the College Baseball Preview will end on Tuesday as we finish our preview of the ACC. If you disagree with any of our choices for the All-American squad, please, drop a comment below.

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The College Baseball Preview sticks to its regularly scheduled programming with the Best of the Rest. We take a look at 11 of the top teams outside the Pac-10, Big West, Big 12, SEC, and ACC.

We set out to cover all of the baseball programs that have a legitimate shot at hosting a Regional and/or playing in a Super Regional. Although mindful of missing a team or two along the way, we hope that our series winds up capturing the vast majority of the Regional hosts and Super Regional participants, as well as all of the College World Series teams.

With the addition of Rice this year, Conference USA is without a doubt one of the top half dozen leagues in college baseball. Our series, in fact, would have been incomplete had we not covered Rice, Tulane, and Southern Mississippi. It would have also been lacking had we bypassed many of the other teams below.

RICE had a 45-19 record last year in the Western Athletic Conference, ranking 13th in Baseball America's final poll and 14th in RPI. The Owls, coached by Wayne Graham, are among the top ten in all the preseason rankings. The move to the stronger C-USA may make it more difficult to save a weekend starter for weeknight games vs. the likes of Texas and Texas A&M. Freshman of the Year Joe Savery, a two-way player, is a first-team preseason All-American. Savery went 8-5 last year with a 2.43 ERA and a league-leading 129 strikeouts in 119 innings. A 1B/DH on days he's not pitching, the left-handed Savery hit .382 with a .471 OBP and .559 SLG. Rice also returns Josh Rodriguez, a junior shortstop who has been named to Baseball America's third-team preseason All-America team. Rodriguez (.345/.411/.555) led the Owls in HR (11) and RBI (54) last year. [Posted by Rich Lederer]

TULANE finished the 2005 season with a 56-12 record and a trip to Omaha. Following the tragic hurricane hit to New Orleans, the Green Wave will be playing their home games at Zephyr Field (AAA home of the Nationals). The team was displaced to Lubbock with Texas Tech in the fall. Certainly they'll feel the feel the loss of All-Americans Brian Bogusevic and Micah Owings at the plate but not as much as one would think. They return three preseason All-Americans in CF Nathan Southard (.341/.429/.563, 12 HRs, 3B Brad Emaus (.321/.424/.542, 13 HRs), and 1B Mark Hamilton (.318/.452/.599, 11 HRs). They will feel the loss of their big two draft picks more on the mound as their lone returning starter is Brandon Gomes (4.42 ERA, 89.2 IP, .278 BAA, 82/17 SO/BB). They would have had senior J.R. Crowel returning to the rotation but he will have to take a medical redshirt following mid-January surgery on his throwing shoulder (labrum). Luckily, they pickup sophomore John Michael Vidic (3.24/8.1/.188/5/3) as another transfer from Georgia Tech (Owings being the first) who might be able to fill that void. [Posted by Ryan Levy]

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI heads into this season off the heels of a school record third-straight NCAA Regionals appearance. Coach Corky Palmer will have his hands full though with perennial baseball powerhouse Rice joining Conference USA for the first time. The Golden Eagles had a record of 41-21 last year, their third-straight season with 40+ wins, also a school record. Southern Miss' best player is senior 1B Marc Maddox (.359-14-59), who was a first-team All-Conference USA selection last season. Sophomore shortstop Trey Sutton will look to build on his impressive freshman season in which he hit .346 with 6 homeruns and 41 RBI. The pitching will be held down by closer Daniel Best. In 2005, Best tallied 11 saves and a 3-0 record to go with his 0.46 ERA. The senior submariner is on the Roger Clemens Award watch list. [Posted by Joe Lederer]

The TEXAS CHRISTIAN Horned Frogs are making a leap from C-USA into the Mountain West Conference this season. TCU finished the '05 campaign with a 41-20 record and a trip to a very difficult Regional in Waco (vs. Stanford and Baylor). The Horned Frogs will be led by utility man Chad Huffman (.353/.437/.573, 12 HRs), who was named to NCBWA's preseason All-American squad. On the mound they lost a ton of talent (mainly, Lance Broadway) and return only three pitchers with a sub-5.00 ERA, although none were below 4.00. Sophomore Sam Demel was a big name from Spring HS (Josh Beckett's alma mater). His ERA was 4.64 but the righty struck out 100 batters in 95 innings in what was only his freshman season. [Ryan Levy]

NOTRE DAME (Big East) went 38-24-1 enroute to their 4th consecutive Big East Tournament Championship and a Regional berth falling at the hands of national runner-up Florida. The Fightin' Irish return 10 of their top 11 hitters (losing only their top hitter, Matt Edwards), including their corner infielders Craig Cooper (.325/.446/.502), and Brett Lilley (.355/.502/.379). On the mound they return six of their top eight pitchers, including their entire starting rotation--most famous of the group being All-American wide out, Jeff Samardzija (3.89/78.2/.272/56/30). Things should certainly be looking up for the Golden Domers. [Ryan Levy]

FLORIDA ATLANTIC will look to close out its Atlantic Sun Conference history in style, as the team will move into the Sun Belt Conference next season. The Owls finished 37-24 last year (19-11 in conference play) and advanced to its sixth NCAA Regional in the past seven seasons. Coach Kevin Cooney, who will notch his 800th career victory this season, will rely on sophomore RHP Mickey Storey and junior RHP/OF Mike McBryde. Storey recorded seven saves before being moved into the rotation in April. At the end of the season, he was named to Baseball America's All-Freshman Team after posting a 10-1 record and 1.70 ERA. Closing for FAU will be two-way stud McBryde, who went 2-2 last year with a 3.11 ERA to go along with 11 saves and 49 strikeouts in 35 innings. As an outfielder, McBryde hit .370 with 5 homeruns and 35 stolen bases. Transfer Ovy Ramirez (.350-13-62 at St. Petersburg JC) will play second and add pop to the middle of the Owls' lineup. [Joe Lederer]

In 2006, WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley Conference) returns all but three starters and a starting pitcher. Of course, that pitcher was All-American Mike Pelfrey, regarded by some as the best pitching prospect in the 2005 draft. Gene Stephenson, who pulled a Shocker in the offseason when he accepted the Oklahoma job but changed his mind hours later, returns for his 29th season and is seeking to extend a streak of never winning fewer than 40 games. Junior 3B Derek Schermerhorn (.329-2-60, 34 SB) had a 34-game hitting streak last year and will lead the Shockers' offense. Wichita State's strength is its pitching, where the team was 9th in the nation in team ERA (3.16) last season. The team's best pitcher is junior LHP Kris Johnson, who will be out until March as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. As a freshman, Johnson went 7-0 and started last season 3-0 with a 0.98 ERA before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. Sophomore RHP Travis Banwart (8-1, 2.09) and senior RHP Jereme Foster (7-5, 3.63) will anchor the rotation and freshman Aaron Shafer, a 16th round selection last year by Cleveland, will also pitch meaningful innings. [Joe Lederer]

We turn westward...

FRESNO STATE baseball history can be broken down in two eras: Before Rice and After Rice. The Bulldogs made 15 straight NCAA appearances from 1979 to 1995, including 12 Western Athletic Conference titles. Then Rice joined the WAC and won the title every year from 1996-2005. During Rice's reign, Fresno State made only four NCAA appearances. Now with Rice leaving the Western Athletic Conference, Fresno State again becomes the best program. Coach Mike Batesole's team was ranked #21 in Baseball America's preseason poll. Fresno State will look to improve on its 30-29 record last year behind the bat of sophomore 3B Beau Mills, son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills. Mills (.319/.424/.699) earned Freshman All-American honors after leading all freshmen with 22 home runs. Senior RHP Doug Fister was drafted in the 6th round last year by the Yankees but chose to return to school and will fill the shoes of last year's ace, first-round pick Matt Garza. Fister (7-6, 4.32 ERA) features an 88-to-91 MPH fastball but scouts believe he'll add velocity once he fills out his frame (6-foot-8, 195). The Bulldogs also return junior outfielder Nick Moresi, an All-WAC selection after hitting .352-11-54 and 13 SB in 13 attempts. [Joe Lederer]

PEPPERDINE (West Coast) went 41-23, 32nd in RPI, and ranked #24 in Baseball America's final poll last season. The Waves came within one win of advancing to the Super Regional round. They enter this season with most key players back, and their highest pre-season ranking in years - #11 in Baseball America. Those players will include senior LHP Paul Coleman (9-3, 3.35), WCC Pitcher of the Year, despite his 9th round selection by the Tigers. RHP Kea Kometani (10-5, 3.17) is gone, but sophomore RHP Barry Enright (10-1, 4.62) returns. Enright was WCC Freshman of the Year. To complete the trifecta, junior catcher Chad Tracy (.367/.428/.609, 22 doubles, 12 HR), the son of Pittsburgh Pirates Manager Jim Tracy, comes back after his WCC Player of the Year season. Last season Head Coach Steve Rodriguez' Waves hit .295/.366/.409 as a team, and posted a 3.84 team ERA. They outscored opponents 368-290. With another year of experience, Pepperdine has a great shot at playing in Omaha in June. [Posted by Jeff Agnew]

SAN FRANCISCO (West Coast) was 38-18 in 2005, coming in 58th in RPI. The Dons return one of the best two-way players in the country in junior outfielder/LHP Scott Cousins (.309/.398/.457; 8-5, 2.64, .229 OBA, 76K, 30 BB, 95.1 IP). Senior RHP Patrick McGuigan (5-2, 1.66, 7 saves, .206, 50K, 13 BB, 54.1 IP, 25 appearances, 1 start) moves from the closer role to starter. Senior outfielder/catcher Stefan Gartrell (.364/.409/.552) is back, but infielder/DH Cy Donald's (.368/.419/.412) bat will be missed. Now in his 8th year, Head Coach Nino Giarratano's team set a school record with 38 wins last year. But it wasn't enough to get the Dons into the post-season. But it was close. Will this be the year the WCC sends 3 teams to Regionals? [Jeff Agnew]

SAN DIEGO (West Coast) was 30-27-1 last season, coming in 130th in RPI. 8th year Head Coach Rich Hill's Toreros go in ranked 36th pre-season by Collegiate Baseball. USD returns two of three starters in junior RHP Josh Butler (7-7, 3.42) and sophomore RHP Matt Couch (5-3, 3.65), with LHP Justin Blaine (8-5, 3.55) going in the 6th round to the Phillies. Most of the key position players are back, led by junior outfielder Shane Buschini (.352/.450/.538) and junior infielder Keoni Ruth (.338/.380/.431). But the big story with the Toreros is the recruiting class, ranked 12th in Division I by Baseball America. Freshman LHP Brian Matusz passed on signing after his 4th round selection by the Angels. Freshman LHP Josh Romanski did the same, despite being picked in the 15th by the Padres. These guys aren't "crafty lefties," each throws in the low 90s. Depending upon how quickly this crop of HS and JUCO recruits adjusts to the D-I level, San Diego may land its first bid since 2003. Any way you look at it, the future looks bright. [Jeff Agnew]

While we're in San Diego, let's take a look at SAN DIEGO STATE's (Mountain West; 26-35, #170 RPI) progress in the Head Coach Tony Gwynn era (90-96 in his 1st 3 years). Although the Aztecs don't make the "Best of the Rest" list, there are signs that the future Hall of Famer's team is making progress. Junior outfielder Quintin Berry (.419/.569/.550) returns. More importantly, recruiting - including the most important part, getting them to enroll - seems to be getting better. Freshman 2B Nick Romero passed on his 40th round pick by the Royals. And junior RHP Justin Masterson makes the transfer from independent Bethel College, where he was 20-8, 1.85, over 2 years. In the Northwoods League last summer, Masterson was 3-1, 1.15, and posted 10 saves. Skeptics have questioned Gwynn's commitment to college baseball. Each passing year, he quiets a few more. [Jeff Agnew]

Gwynn and bear it.

Be sure to return on Sunday to catch our Baseball Analysts' Preseason All-American team and who we believe will make it to the finals of the College World Series in June.

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We're not talking about Kobe's latest offensive burst. That would be One on Five. Instead, we're dusting off a favored format of ours. One on One, a chance to talk about the offseason - including free agent signings and trades - plus a sneak preview of the year at hand.

The break isn't over. But we're getting close, folks.

Bryan: Congratulations Rich, we did it. We made it through the winter. Just a few more weeks until baseball is back.

Rich: Promise, Bryan? (As I cross off another day on my calendar, waiting for pitchers and catchers to report)

Bryan: I do, just 22 more days. That should be exciting, but I'm really excited for what happens about five weeks from now. Spring Training is fun and all, but this inaugural WBC has me giddy.

Rich: Oh, I didn't realize boxing had another title fight at hand.

Bryan: Don't be sarcastic Rich, we finally have a World Cup of our own! I mean, passionate baseball in March? I'm a bit worried about the impact this might have on the season, but really, good baseball should outweigh political complaining.

Rich: All right. I'll come clean with you. I bought a strip of tickets for three games at Angel Stadium the minute they went on sale.

Bryan: Now that's more like it. What team are you most excited to see, it seems like a few have murderer's rows and rotations of aces.

Rich: Heck, I don't even know who is playing, much less who is playing for whom? I mean, is A-Rod in or out or in?

Bryan: Who knows. Last I heard he was talking to Castro about playing for Cuba. Apparently his great uncle had a Cuban friend once.

Rich: Does smoking a Cuban cigar qualify as well? Look, I don't know if I should root for the good ol' USA or return to my roots like the players and side with Germany, Ireland or Sweden.

Bryan: That's very Piazza-ish of you. Speaking of Mike, word is that he's been talking to the Phillies this week. Platoon a bit with Ryan Howard, give Mike Lieberthal time off. Is this a good fit?

Rich: Mike is from Norristown, Pennsylvania, so he might get a nice welcome home party from his family and friends. But, other than that, I wouldn't be overly excited for either side. Let's face it, Piazza is a much better fit for an AL team.

Bryan: I agree. I thought it might be the Orioles or Twins, but those two seem content with Javy Lopez and Rondell White, respectively. I still think Minnesota should bite.

Rich: How 'bout the Yankees? Alex Belth is clamoring for the guy. If New York is going to live with Jason Giambi in the field (which I think is a disaster waiting to happen), then why couldn't Mikey DH and spell Jorge Posada once a week behind the dish?

Bryan: Not sure New Yorkers - at least those in the Bronx - would like Piazza in a Jim Leyritz role, he's not quite as lovable. But really, it's a far better bet for anyone in the AL than National League teams. I would say Oakland, but the Frank Thomas situation is the worst kept secret in baseball.

Rich: I don't want to pull a Yogi Berra here, but if the Big Hurt ain't hurt, what would it hurt to sign him?

Bryan: It wouldn't, as long as Beane doesn't think that signing him would be enough of a reason to trade away Jay Payton, who would then be out of a starting spot. Signing Frank is a good move, depending on him is not.

Rich: I agree. But I'm not worried about the A's depth. They have a lot of chips at their disposal. Trading for a DH is a lot easier than finding a good CF or SS. Hint, hint.

Bryan: Yeah, sometimes you're left with Alex Gonzalez. And that's no longer even close to a compliment.

Rich: The good news for Boston fans is that this version doesn't have a middle name. He can pick it a bit and should suffice in the ninth hole, provided they consummate that deal with Cleveland. Are you koo-koo for Coco Crisp?

Bryan: Opinions about this possible trade seem to be all over the map. Some Bostonians think that Crisp will be some great improvement upon Johnny Damon, and others think he isn't even worth Edgar Renteria, er, Andy Marte. Covelli is a fine player, and should modestly succeed in Boston, but I don't think he's a budding All-Star.

Rich: I fooled around on the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and came to the conclusion that Crisp's 2005 looked a tad like Damon's 24-year-old season in 1998 and Marquis Grissom's 25-year-old campaign in 1992 (without the SB). As a result, I think he is a suitable option for the Red Sox. They need a CF and there aren't too many options, if the truth be told.

Bryan: Good point. I do think that this puts the Red Sox back in the AL East argument. The Yankees are much the same team they were, and probably due for a bit of regression. The Blue Jays are much better, but have not pulled ahead of the top two. So now, Boston should be able to get away with a bit of regression and still be in the race.

Rich: I haven't been overly worried about Boston. Everyone seems focused on what they need rather than how much they have improved themselves in certain areas. If healthy, they should be just fine. What I'm not so sure about though is whether the second-place team in the AL East will earn the Wild Card berth this year.

Bryan: Well, I think it will be the same as it always is. The Wild Card should be a simple competition between the loser of the AL East and the loser of the A's/Angels. I think the Indians have taken a big step back, and have the White Sox winning the division by over five games.

Rich: Oh, I haven't given up on the Tribe at all. Despite a 22-36 record in one-run outcomes, they missed the playoffs last year by just two games. I think Cleveland will need to be reckoned with, for sure. It's too bad the Indians aren't in the NL. They would run away with the West and could give the Cardinals and the Mets/Phillies/Braves a run for their money.

Bryan: Well, as the official Midwest representative of the group, I'm going to pick on you for pointing out the Cardinals only. After such a lackluster winter, are you really ready to hand them the division?

Rich: St. Louis won 100 games last year, the most in baseball. Will they win 100 this year? No, probably not. But, let's assume they slip back to 90 games. Who else in the division is in a position to win that many?

Bryan: This seems like the argument with the AL Central last year. "Even if the Twins regress..." Now I'm not saying the Cardinals shouldn't be the division favorite, they have certainly earned it. But I wouldn't rule out the Astros, the Cubs, or the Brewers -- my pick -- to win 91 games.

Rich: I've already ruled out the Cubs. So take that. I like the Brewers and wouldn't be surprised in the least if they captured the Wild Card spot in the NL. That is one fun team.

Bryan: I agree. A lot of high ceilings on offense with a good, young pitching staff and a better coach. That's one good formula. Too bad they don't play out West.

Rich: If the Dodgers can give all these players one-year deals, maybe baseball should allow teams to switch divisions for a year. Can you imagine how much a spot in the NL West would bring in an auction?

Bryan: More than the auctions for Jeff Weaver and Bengie Molina, that's for sure.

Rich: Maybe they can both sit out the year and keep in shape by playing pitcher and catcher - the same game I played as a kid - with one another.

Bryan: I mean, it really seems like this is an option at this point. Otherwise, it seems like Molina might have to take a one-year deal with the Blue Jays, and as for Weaver...well, I still haven't heard a team officially associated with Weaver.

Rich: Buster Olney reported that "the Phillies are doing some checking on Jeff Weaver." I gotta tell you, Bryan, I just don't understand these guys. How could Weaver pass up, say, a 3 x $9M offer from the Dodgers? Is it really worth an extra million bucks or so a year to leave your hometown team? I mean, is that incremental money going to have any bearing whatsoever on your lifestyle or your kids or grandkids? Suck it up and be glad you can stay home, play this silly game called baseball, and make more money than you will ever know what to do with.

Bryan: Amen. But if that's your philosophy regarding Weaver, what are your thoughts on Roger Clemens? It almost seems as he's trying to start a bidding war between his two hometown teams to be fought on after May 1.

Rich: I'm not convinced it's as much about money this time around as it is with whether he wants to even play another season. He could retire after the WBC. Picture him winning the championship game. That wouldn't be such a bad way to end things, now would it?

Bryan: Well, I guess it depends how many people confuse WBC with a boxing match, or care about it at all.

Rich: But you could be right. Maybe Clemens is just rope-a-dopin' Drayton McLane and Tom Hicks. In fact, it seems to me that Lloyd's of London just might be paying Roger's salary this year, so help me Jeff Bagwell.

Bryan: Alright Rich, let's go into the lightning round, like before the winter. Where does Sammy Sosa end up?

Rich: Dead, like all of us. How 'bout David Wells?

Bryan: Theo gets back and gets a deal done in a week. Wells back to San Diego. How about any of the Rays left on the trading block?

Rich: Julio Lugo and Aubrey Huff are history. Look for Lugo to end up with the Cubs. Andy Friedman will deal Huff to the highest bidder, but it may not happen until this spring. No way Molina sits out. Four million dollars for one year is much more than zero, no?

Bryan: Molina gets backed into the corner, also known as the city of Toronto. He's definitely an improvement upon Gregg Zaun. And how much colder can we expect Jeff Weaver's surroundings to be?

Rich: I'm pretty sure there is a market out there for Weaver. Unlike Scott Boras, I just don't think it's 4 x $10M. But, if it is, then I guess the Bank of Omar Minaya or Tom Hicks will be the one to foot that bill. Let's end with the ace of the free agent market and WBC. Roger Clemens - in or out?

Bryan: In, but on May 2. Whether that's with Hicks or McLane, I'm not sure.

Rich: When it's all said and done, I think he might be known as Roger Clemency. Let's just hope he bows out on a high note, whether it be in March with the WBC title under his belt or with one last great season in Houston or Texas.

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As a follow-up to our three-part Free Agent series (Part One [#1-10], Part Two [#11-20], and Part Three [#21-30]) in November, we are going to provide the status of each player, compare our projections with the actual results of the signings, and add fresh comments on the top 30 plus the honorable mentions. We hit the nail on the head on several but came up one year and a million or two dollars short on the majority of the free agents in a frenzy that surprised us and many others.

1. Roger Clemens - 43 - SP - 2005: Houston Astros

W-L 13-8 | SV 0 | ERA 1.87 | WHIP 1.01 | 185 K/62 BB

Projection: Either Clemens signs with the Astros or he retires. Only Roger knows. It all depends on whether he still has the fire in his belly. If he comes back at a reduced salary, the money saved could be redirected toward a third quality bat to go along with Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg -- giving Houston perhaps one last opportunity to make another postseason run before retooling for the future.

Status: Unsigned.

Comments: The Astros didn't offer Clemens arbitration. He is now ineligible to sign with Houston until May 1st. Other potential suitors include his home state Texas Rangers, plus the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The Rocket has one other option: retirement. The guess here is that he won't make any decision until after he pitches in the World Baseball Classic.

2. A.J. Burnett - 29 - SP - 2005: Florida Marlins

W-L 12-12 | SV 0 | ERA 3.44 | WHIP 1.26 | 198 K/79 BB

Projection: 4 years, $48 million. An expensive gamble given the number of times he has been on the DL throughout his career but one many teams won't hesitate to take.

Status: Signed, Toronto Blue Jays, 5/$55 million.

Comments: Burnett's contract actually worked out to a slightly lower annual amount than we forecast. A.J., however, made out even better because he got an extra year and the option to test the free agent market after 2008, if he so desires.

Burnett turned 29 on Tuesday. His age and career W-L record (49-50) are identical to Chris Carpenter when the latter joined the Cardinals in 2004. Could Burnett put up his best season to date in 2006, followed by a Cy Young Award in 2007?

3. Rafael Furcal - 28 - SS - 2005: Atlanta Braves

.284 AVG/.348 OBP/.429 SLG | HR 12 | SB 46 | 62 BB/78 SO

Projection: 4 years, $40 million. Edgar Renteria went from a .728 OPS in 2004 to this exact contract during the winter. Furcal will draw the same deal, and people will again cite that he's a "winner." Both sides will win at this rate.

Status: Signed, Los Angeles Dodgers, 3/$39 million.

Comments: We lowballed Furcal, on an annual rate, more than anyone on this list. It's reported that offers were up to five years, but Furcal decided to take an increased amount per year for less security. If he signs a two-year deal for more than $11 million after 2008, he made the right move. From where we are sitting, the Dodgers did, too.

4. Paul Konerko - 29 - 1B - 2005: Chicago White Sox

.283 AVG/.375 OBP/.534 SLG | HR 40 | RBI 100 | 81 BB/109 SO

Projection: At least a Richie Sexson-like 4 years, $50 million and a 5-year, $65 million deal isn't out of the question. Good luck.

Status: Signed, Chicago White Sox, 5/$60 million.

Comments: We're going to count this one as a success in terms of our prediction. If anything, we were a tad optimistic. Konerko is likely to earn his keep in at least two of the next three years, but we remain skeptical beyond that.

5. Kevin Millwood - 31 - SP - 2005: Cleveland Indians

W-L 9-11 | SV 0 | ERA 2.86 | WHIP 1.22 | 146 K/52 BB

Projection: 4 years, $36 million. Again, expectations will dictate whether this contract is a success or failure.

Status: Signed, Texas Rangers, 5/$60 million.

Comments: Texas can void the fifth year of the deal if Millwood doesn't pitch a certain number of innings in the early years of the contract, but the Rangers will pay him a minimum of $48 million for four years no matter what. Ugh!

6. Billy Wagner - 34 - RP - 2005: Philadelphia Phillies

W-L 4-3 | SV 38 | ERA 1.51 | WHIP .84 | 87 K/20 BB

Projection: 3 years, $30 million. That's more than $128,000 per inning based on last year's totals. By comparison, Clemens earned just $85,000 per inning despite making a record $18M for a pitcher.

Status: Signed, New York Mets, 4/$43 million.

Comments: Turns out that it's actually $138,000 per inning, with one more season than we had forecasted. The Mets wanted Wagner badly, needed a closer even worse, and have the money to overpay. But there is a lot of risk in a contract like this, and that's before we even talk about the problems involved in paying a reliever eight figures per year.

7. Brian Giles - 35 - OF - 2005: San Diego Padres

.301 AVG/.423 OBP/.483 SLG | HR 15 | RBI 83 | 119 BB/64 SO

Projection: 3 years, $30 million. Well worth it, at least for the next two seasons.

Status: Signed, San Diego Padres, 3/$30 million.

Comments: It's a match! Giles could have signed for more money elsewhere but chose to remain with his hometown Padres. We would not be surprised if he turns out to be the biggest bargain of this year's free agent class.

8. Hideki Matsui - 31 - LF - 2005: New York Yankees

.305 AVG/.367 OBP/.496 SLG | HR 23 | RBI 116 | 63 BB/78 SO

Projection: 3 years, $36 million. The Yankees won't lose him, nor care if they overpay by a couple million. Expect more of the same for all three years of this deal.

Status: Signed, New York Yankees, 4/$52 million.

Comments: Good for Matsui. He casually threatened to leave the Bronx a few times and, as a result, made more money than we had predicted. Matsui should be consistent for the first three years, as we guessed, but it's hard to think he'll be worth anything close to $13 million in 2009. Godzilla comes out on top.

9. Johnny Damon - 32 - CF - 2005: Boston Red Sox

.316 AVG/.366 OBP/.439 SLG | HR 10 | RBI 75 | 53 BB/69 SO

Projection: 3 years, $33 million. In four seasons with the Red Sox, Damon became one of New England's most recognizable faces. Loyalty pays a steep price.

Status: Signed, New York Yankees, 4/$52 million.

Comments: No one outside Boston can call Damon an "idiot" for taking the money and running. His signing fills a hole in New York while creating one for their arch enemy.

10. B.J. Ryan - 30 - RP - 2005: Baltimore Orioles

W-L 1-4 | SV 36 | ERA 3.54 | WHIP 1.14 | 100 K/26 BB

Projection: 4 years, $32 million. Bidding war will run high considering his number of suitors. His value should remain solid.

Status: Signed, Toronto Blue Jays, 5/$47 million.

Comments: Like most of the players on this list, we missed Ryan by one year and between $1-2 million annually. Apparently, that's just the current market. Ryan at five years is a big gamble but, given his age, it's a better risk than the Mets took with Wagner. Toronto also sent a message with this contract, which is a fact we can't ignore.

11. Nomar Garciaparra - 32 - SS - 2005: Chicago Cubs

.283 AVG/.320 OBP/.452 SLG | HR 9 | RBI 30 | 12 BB/24 SO

Projection: 2 years, $15 million. However, you can bet there will be enough incentives and options in the contract to drive its potential value through the roof. We're just not optimistic he'll meet any team's demands.

Status: Signed, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1/$6 million.

Comments: There is very little risk in this contract so, in that regard, it's hard to hate this deal for the Dodgers. But why, why, why would you pay $6 million for Nomar to play first base when you have Hee Seop Choi at less than a million and other needs to fill? From Nomar's perspective, this isn't a great deal either, but it gives him another chance to prove himself and earn a more lucrative deal next year.

12. Jeff Weaver - 29 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Dodgers

W-L 14-11 | SV 0 | ERA 4.22 | WHIP 1.17 | 157 K/43 BB

Projection: 3 or 4 years @ $8-9M per. Seems like a lot of money but isn't that what these guys are now commanding?

Status: Unsigned.

Comments: The Dodgers offered Weaver arbitration. The team has until Sunday, January 8 to sign him. Scott Boras is believed to be seeking at least a four-year, $38 million deal for his client.

13. Jarrod Washburn - 31 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

W-L 8-8 | SV 0 | ERA 3.20 | WHIP 1.33 | 94 K/51 BB

Projection: 3 years, $25+ million. Teach your kids to pitch left-handed.

Status: Signed, Seattle Mariners, 4/$37.5 million.

Comments: Horrendous, horrendous signing. Maybe the worst of the winter. Why any team would pay this much money for Washburn, who was so obviously pitching over his head in 2005, is a mystery. Why the Mariners, who are still rebuilding in a sense, would gamble on their future like this is yet another red mark on Bill Bavasi's resume.

14. Tom Gordon - 38 - RP - 2005: New York Yankees

W-L 5-4 | SV 2 | ERA 2.57 | WHIP 1.09 | 69 K/29 BB

Projection: 3 years, $18 million. Likes Giles yesterday, he's a great bet for two seasons. However, some team will likely add a third year in order to secure their next closer.

Status: Signed, Philadelphia Phillies, 3/$18 million.

Comments: On the dot. Given the amount of money made by Wagner and Ryan, it's hard to believe that Gordon couldn't have held out for more. Pat Gillick did well in his first signing, taking a slight step backwards with Gordon but adding about $5 million to the payroll for each of the next three seasons. It's the White Sox way.

15. Ramon Hernandez - 29 - C - 2005: San Diego Padres

.290 AVG/.322 OBP/.450 SLG | HR 12 | RBI 58 | 18 BB/40 SO

Projection: 4 years, $22 million. His position and youth will be enough to convince a team this contract is worth it. We don't advise a four-year deal with very many catchers, but the price should be low enough to make him a worthwhile bet.

Status: Signed, Baltimore Orioles, 4/$27.5 million.

Comments: This signing came from left field, as no one expected the Orioles (already paying Javy Lopez a big chunk of money) to get involved with Hernandez. However, they struck quickly, and appear to have made a pretty good signing. They may have overpaid but, if there is a decent market for Lopez, the signing has the potential of being a success.

16. Bengie Molina - 31 - C - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

.295 AVG/.336 OBP/.446 SLG | HR 15 | RBI 69 | 27 BB/41 SO

Projection: 3 years, $20 million. An extra year or a few million more than prudence dictates.

Status: Unsigned.

Comments: Molina may have missed his opportunity with the Mets. If he doesn't get an offer to his liking, he could sign a one-year deal with the Angels to return on May 1st and then try the free agent market once again next winter.

17. Paul Byrd - 35 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

W-L 12-11 | SV 0 | ERA 3.74 | WHIP 1.19 | 102 K/28 BB

Projection: 1 x $6 million with an option for a second year if the Angels sign him or 2 years, $12+ million should he go elsewhere. A serviceable pitcher when healthy.

Status: Signed, Cleveland Indians, 2/$14.25 million.

Comments: If he stays healthy, this could wind up being a good signing for the Indians. With Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia in the rotation (and Jeremy Sowers on the horizon), all they really needed was a #3 or #4 pitcher. Paul Byrd is just that.

18. Matt Morris - 31 - SP - 2005: St. Louis Cardinals

W-L 14-10 | SV 0 | ERA 4.11 | WHIP 1.28 | 117 K/37 BB

Projection: 2 years, $13-15 million. Incentives, options, and buyouts likely to factor into his next contract.

Status: Signed, San Francisco Giants, 3/$27 million.

Comments: We don't like this signing one bit. If Paul Byrd only is making $7 million per year, then in what world does Matt Morris make nine? Does Brian Sabean not factor in the past two seasons when he signs free agents? Not quite as bad of a deal as Washburn, but if we were grading it, Sabean would earn a big, fat "D."

19. Jacque Jones - 30 - OF - 2005: Minnesota Twins

.249 AVG/.319 OBP/.438 SLG | HR 23 | RBI 73 | 51 BB/120 SO

Projection: Last year, Jermaine Dye signed a 2-year, $10.15 million contract with the White Sox. The last $1.15 million is the buyout for a potential third season. Look for Jones to sign a very similar contract this winter.

Status: Signed, Chicago Cubs, 3/$16 million.

Comments: Jones certainly signed for more than Dye got, as the Cubs were quickly falling out of options. Bryan has defended the deal but, as a result, no longer has the respect of any Cub fan. With a good southpaw basher at a cheap price (Eduardo Perez?), the Cubs will do fine here. Jones did even better.

20. Kyle Farnsworth - 29 - RP - 2005: Tigers/Braves

W-L 1-1 | SV 16 | ERA 2.19 | WHIP 1.01 | 87 K/27 BB

Projection: 3 years, $15 million. There is a lot of risk involved with Farnsworth, which will keep his next contract low. However, if he pitches like 2001 or 2005, this could be one of the winter's best deals.

Status: Signed, New York Yankees, 3/$17 million.

Comments: Off by less than a million per year, and we probably would have guessed more had we known the Yankees would sign him. Farnsworth never had the head to be a great closer, so he might thrive in the Tom Gordon role. But it will be interesting to see how Kyle holds up in New York.

21. Esteban Loaiza - 34 - SP - 2005: Washington Nationals

W-L 12-10 | SV 0 | ERA 3.77 | WHIP 1.30 | 173 K/55 BB

Projection: 2 years, $9-11 million. He is what he is, a guy who can throw 200+ IP with an ERA between 4.00-5.00 in a neutral environment.

Status: Signed, Oakland A's, 3/$21.4 million.

Comments: We seriously underestimated the market for mediocre starting pitching. Given the market, the A's didn't really overpay, though they probably went one year too many. Oakland wanted to land someone quickly, and did so, as Loaiza was one of the first players to change hands. If this deal allows Billy Beane the opportunity to get as much for Barry Zito as he did for Mark Mulder, then we will call it a success.

22. Reggie Sanders - 38 - OF - 2005: St. Louis Cardinals

.271 AVG/.340 OBP/.546 SLG | HR 21 | RBI 54 | 28 BB/75 SO

Projection: 2 years, $10 million. An injury-filled past and old age will force teams to stay conservative with their offers. Whoever signs him should be pleased given the right expectations.

Status: Signed, Kansas City Royals, 2/$10 million.

Comments: Again, right on the nose. We have a little bit of respect for these Royals, as they are determined to show their fan base that someone does care. Sanders won't be playing for a World Series team again any time soon, but he'll have the opportunity to end his career being called a "leader."

23. Preston Wilson - 31 - OF - 2005: Rockies/Nationals

.260 AVG/.325 OBP/.467 SLG | HR 25 | RBI 90 | 45 BB/148 SO

Projection: 2 years, $10-12 million, as long as the Yankees don't get involved. A small- to mid-size market team will think his 25 HR and 90 RBI are a bargain at that price.

Status: Signed, Houston Astros, 1/$4 million.

Comments: Wilson will either make $4.5 million for one year (including a $500,000 buyout) or $28 million for four years if the Astros exercise a club option to extend the contract through 2009. Houston gets Wilson at a slight discount to the $5 million per year entry fee for most middle-of-the-road free agent outfielders with the added bonus of being able to lock him up longer term, if they so choose.

24. Trevor Hoffman - 38 - RP - 2005: San Diego Padres

W-L 1-6 | SV 43 | ERA 2.97 | WHIP 1.11 | 54 K/12 BB

Projection: 2 years, $14 million. He deserves to be overpaid a bit, but no one should make the mistake of giving him a third year.

Status: Signed, San Diego Padres, 2/$13.5 million.

Comments: We basically nailed this one. "There's no place like home...There's no place like home..."

25. Todd Jones - 37 - RP - 2005: Florida Marlins

W-L 1-5 | SV 40 | ERA 2.10 | WHIP 1.03 | 62 K/14 BB

Projection: 2 years, $7-8 million. A cheap closer option for a small- or middle-market team.

Status: Signed, Detroit Tigers, 2/$11 million.

Comments: Here's a joke for you. In 2006, the Tigers will be paying Troy Percival and Jones a combined $11.5 million. The end.

26. Bob Wickman - 37 - RP - 2005: Cleveland Indians

W-L 0-4 | SV 45 | ERA 2.47 | WHIP 1.26 | 41 K/21 BB

Projection: A Jones-like 2 years and $7-8 million. They don't allow month-to-month deals, do they?

Status: Signed, Cleveland Indians, 1/$5 million.

Comments: The Indians had the best signing among mediocre starters with Byrd. They also had the best signing among mediocre closers with Wickman. Ken Williams may have deserved AL Executive of the Year in 2005, but Mark Shapiro is doing one heckuva job in Cleveland, too.

27. Kenji Johjima - 29 - C - 2005: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks

.309 AVG/.381 OBP/.557 SLG | HR 24 | RBI 57 |

Projection: 2 years, $13 million. Teams will only guarantee two, but you can bet they will have some options on the back end just in case.

Status: Signed, Seattle Mariners, 3/$16.5 million.

Comments: Very good signing. The Mariners have a following in Asia that is unmatched, and the Johjima signing will only help that. If he's an average catcher in the next three years -- and he has the ceiling to be much more -- this is a good signing.

28. Kenny Rogers - 41 - SP - 2005: Texas Rangers

W-L 14-8 | SV 0 | ERA 3.46 | WHIP 1.32 | 87 K/53 BB

Projection: 1 year, $6 million. He'll get a $1.5 million raise on his 2004 salary, plus some team will throw in an option for a second year, with a nice seven-figure buyout.

Status: Signed, Detroit Tigers, 2/$16 million.

Comments: Here's a joke for you. In 2006, the Tigers will be paying Kenny Rogers $8 million. The end.

29. Mike Piazza - 37 - C/DH - 2005: New York Mets

.251 AVG/.326 OBP/.452 | HR 19 | RBI 62 | 41 BB/67 SO

Projection: 1 year, $5 million. Piazza will be hard pressed to earn his keep on the field, but he just might be enough of a box-office hit for the right AL team to justify the price tag.

Status: Unsigned.

Comments: National League teams have shown little, if any, interest in the future Hall of Famer. As a result, Piazza may have to give up his desire to catch on a regular basis and sign a contract with an American League team to become a full-time DH and a part-time catcher.

30. Juan Encarnacion - 30 - OF - 2005: Florida Marlins

.287 AVG/.349 OBP/.447 SLG | HR 16 | RBI 76 | 41 BB/104 SO

Projection: 2 years, $8.5-9.5 million, basically repeating his previous salary. Encarnacion is young, consistent, and coming off perhaps his best year. You can rest assured that some General Manager will bite at that.

Status: Signed, St. Louis Cardinals, 3/$15 million.

Comments: Who would you rather have, Reggie Sanders for $5 million per for two years or Juan Encarnacion for $5 million per for three years?

Honorable Mention

We went on record with our top 30 free agents in a three-part series on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. We gave you our rankings and projections as far as contract terms. However, you didn't think we were going to end there, did you? Right you are. It's time for us to match the players with the teams. And we mix in some other Hot Stove stuffing and gravy as well. Let's serve it up.

Bryan: Well, Rich, now that we've dissected and ranked the players, let's talk about where they might end up. I want to start with Paul Konerko, who seems to becoming the 'sexy' name of the offseason, even if he wasn't our number one player. Who do you see coming out of this bidding war on top?

Rich: If it's not the White Sox, then it will be either the Angels or that other Sox team.

Bryan: Let's talk about the White Sox commitment to him. Besides being the power hitter on the club, there is also a public relations side that must sign him.

Rich: Yes, teams that win the World Series often times feel compelled to please their fan base by locking up their star players. Other than Ozzie, Konerko is the most popular guy on the South Side of Chicago. You can bet the Sox will do their damnedest to keep him.

Bryan: The Chicago Sun-Times reported yesterday that Ken Williams is preparing a 4-year, $52 million contract. I'd say that's their damnedest, wouldn't you?

Rich: That is a very full offer and just about what you and I predicted. The floor has now been set. The only question is whether or not Konerko holds out for a fifth year.

Bryan: Let's hope that no one would put a burden on their payroll like that. But, as you said, there are some high-profile teams contending for him. The only team I think that has a chance, honestly, is one you didn't mention, the Mets.

Rich: I'm quite certain that the Angels and Red Sox will be tendering offers. You might be right about the Mets though. Omar Minaya seems to have more money at his disposal than Bill Gates. Boy, Konerko's numbers would take a dive going from U.S. Cellular to Shea Stadium, don't ya think?

Bryan: Most definitely. I really don't think that Konerko is a direction that the Mets should go. In fact, today we heard reports that Minaya has been talking about acquiring Aubrey Huff. Now that's more like it.

Rich: Kudos to Gerry Hunsicker and Andrew Friedman down in Tampa Bay. They are trying to unload Huff while they can and at the same time take care of one of their own in Rocco Baldelli. The Devil Rays, if managed properly, could become the Cleveland Indians of the late-'90s.

Bryan: Without question. Now if they could only use their offensive depth to acquire some pitching, and find a spot for B.J. Upton, I'd be happy. Let's just be glad the Devil Rays aren't like the Royals, who seem to be committed to spending too much money on a veteran that might help them win 65 games instead of just 60.

Rich: I gotta tell you, Bryan, I am concerned for Royals fans. This free agent crop is right up their alley. A bunch of second-tier guys who they can throw some money at in the hopes that the uninitiated will think they are making a concerted effort to get better. Guys like Kevin Mench, rumored to be heading to KC, and Matt Morris aren't going to turn things around anytime soon.

Bryan: Yes, can't you just imagine a press conference in which they give Morris something like 3 years at $8M per season? Yuck! I don't really have a problem with the Mench-for-Affeldt rumors (Jeremy just isn't turning the corner in K.C.), but they must show their fan base the right mentality. They should be focusing on nurturing and improving Billy Butler, Zack Greinke, Alex Gordon, Justin Huber, and in time, Andrew Miller.

Rich: Patience is the watchword here. Well, at least in terms of how long it's going to take to turn this mess around. But I bet the fans wish they would hurry up and sell the team, hire a new GM, and put a five-year plan in place. I mean, the Royals could have one of the top picks in the draft for the next few years. How can they NOT get better?

Bryan: No kidding. Let's move within the division to a team whose five-year plan actually looks to be succeeding: the Cleveland Indians. Mark Shapiro is in a tough place, forced into decisions regarding Kevin Millwood and Bob Wickman. Sure, both have regressions coming, but both are also top 30 free agents. Is simply bringing back the 2005 team the direction he should go?

Rich: I normally don't advocate sitting tight but, in the case of the Indians, I think that just might be the way to go. Building your team with young and talented players like Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, and Grady Sizemore up the middle is a sure sign that management knows what it is doing. The Indians were one of the best teams in baseball last year. Heck, they might have been the second best for all we know. Winning 93 games with a $41 million payroll is a tribute to Shapiro and his staff.

Bryan: Yes, and you can bet that Shapiro will now be given some extra money to add to his payroll. However, I disgaree with you. This team has the foundation for success, yes, but they also can't just sit tight. Re-signing Wickman is a bad idea, and I wouldn't advise to meet Millwood's demands, either. Instead, let the front office continue to be creative, filling these holes, and trying to find a way to eliminate Aaron Boone and/or Casey Blake from that lineup.

Rich: When I said "sit tight," I didn't mean holding on to Millwood and Wickman per se. I just think they should stay the course while tweaking their roster on the margin in the most cost-effective manner. I'm certainly not married to Wickman. There's no reason to suspect that an even cheaper option like Bob Howry couldn't do as good a job as him. Let's face it, there are a lot of decent closers out there to choose from.

Bryan: Definitely not. The consensus top two are, as we ranked them, Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan. And I don't see either of those players touching Cleveland with a ten-foot pole. Instead, Wagner will probably choose between the Phillies and the Mets (are they in on every big free agent these days, or what?), while Ryan is going to hear from all the big teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, etc.

Rich: I guess it depends if you like to shop at Bloomingdale's or Target. Todd Jones would be just fine by me -- as would Howry -- and I wouldn't be against giving Kyle Farnsworth a shot. The Wagners and Ryans out there are going to come at a big price. No thanks. I would rather see the Indians give Brian Giles the same money or even slightly more, for that matter, in order to get one more big bat in the lineup.

Bryan: I agree, though Giles might get priced-out of their budget pretty fast. I see him ending up with the Chicago Cubs, who will also get Rafael Furcal. But Giles, like the closers discussed above, will get interest from everyone. While he might not even make a ton of sense for the Yankees or Red Sox (unless they trade Manny), you can bet even they will be in on the calls.

Rich: For sure, as well as they should be. What were the Padres thinking, offering him a 3 x 7 deal? C'mon, that is downright insulting. Sheesh, that's not even in the ballpark -- and Petco is a huuuuuuuuge park. If Kevin Towers & Co. believe they can replace him with Jacque Jones, on top of trading for Vinny Castilla, I have a bridge to sell them and it's not heading to Coronado.

Bryan: The Dodgers would have to fall flat on their face to not be the favorites in March. After all the 2005 injuries returning, and the money spent this winter, they should be much improved.

Rich: The only money the Dodgers have spent so far is in severance pay. I'm not at all convinced the McCourts are going to pay up for anyone. That said, I don't think the Dodgers can get much worse and in such a weak division, I guess they have as good a shot at winning as anyone else. But the real story here is 2007 and beyond, provided the McCourts and the new GM don't panic first. Oops, silly me. I forgot, the panic button has already been pushed.

Bryan: The Dodgers are the definition of mismanaged, but still should be the favorites in the NL West. Says a lot about that division, huh? Really, the Dodgers concern should be to avoid becoming the number two team in Los Angeles. The Angels have shown an interest in getting rid of Darin Erstad this winter, which is a sign their winning ways just might continue.

Rich: That is a very good sign. But for the life of me, I don't understand why they have so much interest in Konerko. It's not like Erstad is their only option at first base. Bill Stoneman, I'd like you to meet Casey Kotchman. Oh, and Kendry Morales is sitting in the lobby waiting to see you, too.

Bryan: It's funny that the team was so quick to implement Dallas McPherson, but approach Kotchman with such apprehension. They have the chance in 2007 to have Jeff Mathis behind the plate, with an infield of Kotchman-Kendrick-Wood-McPherson and Kendry at DH. I'm not sure Billy Beane could make 1,000 trades to top that future.

Rich: Excuse me, I was salivating. Gotta wipe my shirt off. Not only are those guys up-and-coming players with high ceilings, they will be cheap for years to come. Arte Moreno will be able to add a real center fielder one of these years and put even more money into an already top-notch pitching rotation.

Bryan: Alright, Rich, let's give the readers what they want with a quick lightning round. Do the Burnett-to-Toronto rumors make sense, and where will he end up?

Rich: Toronto has the money as well as Brad Arnsberg. If Burnett is OK with Canada, then Toronto it is. While on the subject of the AL East -- Johnny Damon?

Bryan: Stays in Boston for too much money. Am I right with Furcal to Chicago?

Rich: If not the Braves, then the Cubs. Speaking of which, Nomar?

Bryan: Heads out west to the Dodgers. How about the three catchers, Hernandez, Molina and Jojima?

Rich: Arizona, NYM, and Seattle. Let's turn to those ace relievers. Wagner, Ryan, and Gordon?

Bryan: The Mets, Red Sox and Yankees. Now please Rich, tell me Hoffman and Thomas stay in the right uniforms?

Rich: Maybe Hoffman although they are far apart. Thomas is Oakland's next DH. Sad but true.

Rich: Speaking of has beens, where will Piazza wind up?

Bryan: If it's not Thomas in Oakland, it's Piazza. Otherwise, he'll replace Raffy in Baltimore. Let's end on the two bashers, Konerko and Giles. Who lands 'em?

Rich: Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals. Have a good life, Larry Walker. Welcome, Brian Giles. The type of guy LaRussa and the fans in St. Louis will love.

Permalink | Comments (8)

UPDATE: Rich will be a guest on The Mighty 1090 AM radio show this evening at approximately 5:30 PST. The host is Ted Leitner, the voice of the San Diego Padres. The topics of discussion include the GM meetings, free agents, trade rumors, and, of course, the Padres.

For those who will be away from the radio or are out of the area, the show can be heard via streaming audio. Click on the blinking "1090AM LISTEN LIVE" button.

We wind down our free agent series with the #21-30 players available this winter. Today's list includes a first-ballot Hall of Famer, three crack relief pitchers, a couple of former All-Star starting pitchers, three outfielders who have been around the block, and a Japanese import. (Part One and Part Two)

21. Esteban Loaiza - 33 - SP - 2005: Washington Nationals

W-L 12-10 | SV 0 | ERA 3.77 | WHIP 1.30 | 173 K/55 BB

With the exception of 2003 when Loaiza finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, he has always been the type of pitcher who was more of an innings-eater than anything else. The question has usually been whether that was a good or a bad thing. The native of Tijuana, Mexico relies heavily on his cut fastball while mixing in a four-seamer with average velocity, a mediocre slider, and a change-up.

Aside from his superb season, which two years later looks to be more and more of an aberration, Loaiza's ERA going into 2005 ranged from 4.13-5.71. The 11-year veteran then bounced back last season and posted the second-best ERA of his career. He was undoubtedly helped by RFK Stadium, one of the more friendly pitcher's ballparks last year. Loaiza fashioned an ERA of 2.86 at home and 4.71 on the road.

Projection: 2 years, $9-11 million. He is what he is, a guy who can throw 200+ IP with an ERA between 4.00-5.00 in a neutral environment.

22. Reggie Sanders - 37 - OF - 2005: St. Louis Cardinals

.271 AVG/.340 OBP/.546 SLG | HR 21 | RBI 54 | 28 BB/75 SO

Sanders only played in 93 games last year, but he sure looked good doing it. If he had survived a full season, his numbers would have projected to 37 home runs, 94 RBI, and 24 stolen bases. Of course, Sanders has never played a full season, as his career-high is 140 games. Counting on him to play more than 120 games would be a risk.

However, there is a high likelihood that he will play quite well in those 120 games. Sanders showed the same plus-power in 2005 that has always made him an attractive option, while also walking at the highest rate of his career. He will, of course, strike out a lot, but that is now one of his only flaws. He runs the bases well, plays good outfield defense, and can hit even the league's best fastball.

Given the right fourth outfielder, there is no reason to believe that Sanders' late-career success will not continue. Oh, and he's got that "winner" label, too.

Projection: 2 years, $10 million. An injury-filled past and old age will force teams to stay conservative with their offers. Whoever signs him should be pleased given the right expectations.

23. Preston Wilson - 30 - OF - 2005: Rockies/Nationals

.260 AVG/.325 OBP/.467 SLG | HR 25 | RBI 90 | 45 BB/148 SO

Wilson is unique among this year's free agent class in that he can play all three outfield positions. The former All-Star has a lot of pop in his bat, too. He has a big swing and always ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts. Owing to a knee injury, Wilson's days of stealing 20-plus bases are behind him. But he is only two years removed from leading the NL in RBI, a plus for those GMs who believe they need a "run producer."

The 6-foot-2, 213-pound former Met, Marlin, Rockie, and Nat has a career OPS+ of 106 so we wouldn't get carried away with his offensive abilities, especially for an OF. His counting stats are enticing at first blush, but they overstate his actual production.

Projection: 2 years, $10-12 million, as long as the Yankees don't get involved. A small- to mid-size market team will think his 25 HR and 90 RBI are a bargain at that price.

24. Trevor Hoffman - 37 - RP - 2005: San Diego Padres

W-L 1-6 | SV 43 | ERA 2.97 | WHIP 1.11 | 54 K/12 BB

Like Frank Thomas (who just missed our top 30), the prospect of Trevor Hoffman leaving San Diego is a sad one. Although Hoffman hasn't spent his entire career with one organization in the manner of Thomas, imagining Trevor in a different uniform is a strange thought. The right-hander has saved 434 games as a Padre, including 53 in his sparkling 1998 season.

Those days are long gone, however, as Hoffman really is not a threat to post a 1.98 ERA anymore. His K/9, which once lived in double-digits, has been below 9.00 for two seasons. In 2005, his .235 batting average against was the lowest since 1995. Hoffman's game is now a different one, as he is walking batters at David Wells-like rates. He still has one of the game's best change-ups, though his fastball is down to around 90-MPH.

Given his age, past injuries, and the declining K/9 rate, Hoffman isn't the safest bet for an eight-figure contract. However, he provides a sort of ninth-inning comfort that few other pitchers in the Majors could. Let's just hope that's with the Padres.

Projection: 2 years, $14 million. He deserves to be overpaid a bit, but no one should make the mistake of giving him a third year.

25. Todd Jones - 37 - RP - 2005: Florida Marlins

W-L 1-5 | SV 40 | ERA 2.10 | WHIP 1.03 | 62 K/14 BB

Jones throws four pitches for strikes, including a fastball that was consistently hitting 95-MPH on the gun last year. The 13-year veteran challenges hitters and was equally tough on LHB and RHB, as well as at home and away. Jones claims that he didn't shake catcher Paul LoDuca off once all year. Whether the author of "The Closer" column for The Sporting News can maintain his excellence without LoDuca remains to be seen, but the change of scenery won't be anything new as he has been with Boston, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Florida the past three years.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder allowed only two HR in 73 IP last season. Todd's ERA was almost two runs below his career norm. He also ranked fourth in the NL in saves despite not registering his first until the end of April. His ERA was under 2.00 every month except September (4.91) when he gave up four hits and five runs (four earned) without getting an out in a forgettable appearance vs. Philadelphia.

Projection: 2 years, $7-8 million. A cheap closer option for a small- or middle-market team.

26. Bob Wickman - 36 - RP - 2005: Cleveland Indians

W-L 0-4 | SV 45 | ERA 2.47 | WHIP 1.26 | 41 K/21 BB

Wickman throws a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a change-up. His fastball sits in the low-90s and doubles as a heavy sinker. At 6-foot-1 and 240 pounds, Wickman isn't light on his feet. He is a poor fielder and not adept at holding baserunners (11 SB and 0 CS last year and 21-for-21 the past three seasons).

A closer since 1998, Wickman has a bulldog mentality on the mound. He wants the ball and thrives in pressure situations. His 45 saves ranked second in the AL although his peripheral stats were less than spectacular. He had arm surgery two years ago and is a health risk.

Projection: A Jones-like 2 years and $7-8 million. They don't allow month-to-month deals, do they?

27. Kenji Jojima - 29 - C - 2005: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks

.309 AVG/.381 OBP/.557 SLG | HR 24 | RBI 57 |

An unknown commodity if there ever was one. Most Japanese products are, although players like Ichiro, Hideki and Kaz Matsui came with fantastic reviews. Tadahito Iguchi, however, slipped through the free agent process last year, signing a small deal with the World Champion White Sox. Jojima lies somewhere in the middle, as he isn't well-known as one of Japan's most dangerous hitters but is garnering more interest than Iguchi.

Jojima wasn't much entering the 2003 season, following a 2002 in which his OBP was below .310. The last three seasons, however, Jojima has averaged something like .320/.405/.600. His 2004 season was fantastic, where Jojima showed good discipline, power, and a solid throwing arm. This past season, Jojima broke his shin at the end of a year in which he hit 24 homers and had a .381 OBP. However, traditionalists might worry that he only had 57 RBI. Don't let that concern you.

Because as unknown commodities go, he might just be worth the risk.

Projection: 2 years, $13 million. Teams will only guarantee two, but you can bet they will have some options on the back end just in case.

28. Kenny Rogers - 40 - SP - 2005: Texas Rangers

W-L 14-8 | SV 0 | ERA 3.46 | WHIP 1.32 | 87 K/53 BB

If only age and make-up didn't matter, Rogers would be ranked much higher. He is the definition of crafty lefty, throwing 90-MPH only on occasion, while mixing a good curve and solid change. His control has never been a forte, but an ability to pitch with runners on base and keep the ball in the park has made him a 16-year veteran.

However, his status as a veteran comes at a cost: age. Rogers will turn 41 tomorrow, and his days are getting more and more numbered. Only eight southpaws have ever thrown 180 or more innings at his age. Only five pitched decently. The numbers are simply against Rogers succeeding, against his ERA staying below 5.00. Throw in a certain camera man incident from the regular season and a second half ERA of 4.72, and you can see why Rogers might not be the winter's hottest commodity.

Projection: 1 year, $6 million. He'll get a $1.5 million raise on his 2004 salary, plus some team will throw in an option for a second year, with a nice seven-figure buyout.

29. Mike Piazza - 36 - C/DH - 2005: New York Mets

.251 AVG/.326 OBP/.452 | HR 19 | RBI 62 | 41 BB/67 SO

Piazza can still hit reasonably well. Too bad we can't say the same for his defense. Oh, Mike is good enough to spell a starter here and there, but no team can -- or should -- count on him to be their number one catcher. Whether he wants to admit it or not, those days are simply behind him. However, Piazza's agent says the former Dodger and Met great isn't interested in being reduced to a part-time role -- and therein lies the problem. They are still of the belief that Mike can play for "two or three more years" and maintain that he will have the option to catch in either league. We say "good luck" to that and expect AL teams to be much more involved in bidding for his services as a designated hitter and backup catcher than NL teams.

The future Hall of Famer still has above-average power to all fields, but he no longer has what it takes to hit .300. In fact, we think it would be a mistake to expect anything more than a .265 AVG with 20 HR (with little or nothing else behind those numbers) over the course of a 400-450 AB season. Like it or not, at this point in his career, he is more of a name than anything else.

Projection: 1 year, $5 million. Piazza will be hard pressed to earn his keep on the field, but he just might be enough of a box-office hit for the right AL team to justify the price tag.

30. Juan Encarnacion - 29 - OF - 2005: Florida Marlins

.287 AVG/.349 OBP/.447 SLG | HR 16 | RBI 76 | 41 BB/104 SO

For four seasons, Juan Encarnacion has been the same player. He has played the same good outfield defense, while staying the same poor baserunner. You can expect about 140-150 games, 40 or so walks, and about 45-55 extra-base hits (the smaller the park, the less doubles and more HR). The only thing that changes on a year-to-year basis is batting average.

Lucky enough for Encarnacion, his batting average rose 50 points during the 2005 season. Interestingly, his BABIP on the season was .334, far above the league average. This followed a season in which he had the opposite luck. In the middle lies a player who should hit about .270/.330/.430 over the duration of his contract. It's nothing great, but he's a sure bet for those willing to settle for mediocrity.

Projection: 2 years, $8.5-9.5 million, basically repeating his previous salary. Encarnacion is young, consistent, and coming off perhaps his best year. You can rest assured that some General Manager will bite at that.

Honorable Mention: Jeromy Burnitz, Octavio Dotel, Erubiel Durazo, Carl Everett, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Grudzielanek, Bobby Howry, Bill Mueller, Frank Thomas, Rondell White

Check back tomorrow when we get together and chat about our predictions for the winter.

We also would like to point out two new additions to our sidebar. The first is the "Hot Off the Stove" feature near the top, in which we will be commenting on the day's hottest topic. Second, our list of the top 30 free agents is at the bottom and will be updated as these players sign throughout the offseason. As for now, feel free to list your own thoughts in the comments section.

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With the Hot Stove League about to begin, we are previewing this year's top 30 free agents in a three-part series. We covered #s 1-10 yesterday and continue with our second ten today. We start off with a certain former Boston Red Sox All-Star shortstop:

11. Nomar Garciaparra - 31 - SS - 2005: Chicago Cubs

.283 AVG/.320 OBP/.452 SLG | HR 9 | RBI 30 | 12 BB/24 SO

This was not supposed to happen. In fact, Nomar was never supposed to reach free agency. After hitting .372 in 2000, Nomar was a hero in New England to a Tom Brady degree. He was supposed to stay a Bostonian for life. And then, his wrist hurt. And it stayed hurt, and he was never the same. His days in Chicago were mediocre at best, and Garciaparra's health prevented North Siders from seeing his true colors, whatever they might be.

No longer is Nomar an asset at shortstop. Instead, he's better suited moving down the defensive spectrum to third base or left field. No longer is he a good bet to have a .360 OBP or even the .342 OBP that had been his career low before the 2005 season. No longer is Nomar a threat to slug over .500. But, he still has the potential to hit .280/.330/.470. Look for a team to give him one last shot to handle SS with the knowledge that he could be switched to 3B, if necessary. An infielder who can post an .800 OPS has value, although teams shouldn't expect him to play a full season.

And yes, he's a public relations department's dream. Or, at least has the potential to be.

Projection: 2 years, $15 million. However, you can bet there will be enough incentives and options in the contract to drive its potential value through the roof. We're just not optimistic he'll meet any team's demands.

12. Jeff Weaver - 29 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Dodgers

W-L 14-11 | SV 0 | ERA 4.22 | WHIP 1.17 | 157 K/43 BB

Weaver throws two fastballs (a low-90s four-seamer as well as a high-80s two-seamer that runs and sinks), a hard slider, a slurve, and a mediocre change-up. At 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds, the lanky right-hander is long and comes at hitters with a low angle of delivery. Jeff's make-up is questionable and his body language on the mound when things go against him leaves a lot to be desired.

Weaver's splits show he is tough on RHB (.208/.241/.345) and at home (.237/.290/.385). On the other hand, he is less than ordinary against LHB (.297/.356/.511) and on the road (.277/.320/.489). After a rough April and May, Jeff settled down and posted a 3.60 ERA in the final four months of the season. Weaver is durable (224 IP in 2005 and has never been on the DL during his seven-year career) and has nearly impeccable control (one walk per five innings). However, he needs to drastically reduce the number of gopher balls (35, tied for the second most in MLB) to become anything more than a 4.00 ERA, middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Projection: 3 or 4 years @ $8-9M per. Seems like a lot of money but isn't that what these guys are now commanding?

13. Jarrod Washburn - 31 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

W-L 8-8 | SV 0 | ERA 3.20 | WHIP 1.33 | 94 K/51 BB

Washburn is the best southpaw in a thin market for starting pitchers. Jarrod throws the standard pitches but no longer relies on his heater the way he once did. He works the outside corner, throwing sliders to LHB and change-ups to RHB in addition to his two fastballs. Washburn has become less of a flyball pitcher in 2004-05 than he was in his first six seasons. The lefty is quick to home and rarely allows runners to steal bases (0-for-6 in 2005 and 37 SB with 38 CS since 2000). He consistently pitches better on the road than at home.

Jarrod's won-loss record and ERA were both misleading last year. He deserved to win more than eight games for a division champ but didn't pitch as well as his fourth-ranked ERA might indicate. Washburn, in fact, had the highest DIPS/ERA ratio in the league last year, suggesting that he benefited from strong defense and luck more than anything else. Wash also gave up more hits than innings, had a K/BB ratio under 2.0, and his 4.77 K/9 was the lowest of his eight-year career.

Projection: 3 years, $25+ million. Teach your kids to pitch left-handed.

14. Tom Gordon - 37 - RP - 2005: New York Yankees

W-L 5-4 | SV 2 | ERA 2.57 | WHIP 1.09 | 69 K/29 BB

It looked like at the age of 28, Tom Gordon was washed up. Fresh off signing a contract with the Boston Red Sox, Gordon had a 5.59 ERA in 1996. In 215.2 innings, Gordon allowed 249 hits, 105 walks and 28 home runs. He looked finished. The next season, the Red Sox converted Gordon in midseason to the bullpen. He has yet to look back.

For the last three seasons, Gordon has been one of the best relievers in baseball. In each, he has appeared in more than 60 games, with an ERA never higher than 3.16. Some worry that his K/9, which dropped to 7.70 this year, is a sign for future failure. However, Flash still shows the stuff that put him at the top: the mid-90s fastball, the devastating hammer curve, and the solid slider.

Projection: 3 years, $18 million. Likes Giles yesterday, he's a great bet for two seasons. However, some team will likely add a third year in order to secure their next closer.

15. Ramon Hernandez - 29 - C - 2005: San Diego Padres

.290 AVG/.322 OBP/.450 SLG | HR 12 | RBI 58 | 18 BB/40 SO

There was one change in the style of Ramon Hernandez at the plate in 2005: he stopped walking. Instead, Hernandez increased his batting average, this time to a career high .290. We can partially attribute this to Ramon showing the best contact skills of his career: 40 strikeouts in 369 at-bats. His on-base percentage was right near his career average, even if his tiny walk rate was his worst ever.

Hernandez has the potential to be a very good investment. If he could continue to show the same contact skills, while reverting to his past walk and power rates, he has .290/.350/.450 potential. He is also serviceable behind the plate, although few catchers were run on as much as Ramon last season. However, there is no question that Hernandez has a few obstacles to overcome before he reaches his ceiling, if that time has not already passed.

Projection: 4 years, $22 million. His position and youth will be enough to convince a team this contract is worth it. We don't advise a four-year deal with very many catchers, but the price should be low enough to make him a worthwhile bet.

16. Bengie Molina - 31 - C - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

.295 AVG/.336 OBP/.446 SLG | HR 15 | RBI 69 | 27 BB/41 SO

Molina had a career year at the plate in 2005, setting personal highs in AVG/OBP/SLG, as well as HR and BB. He slugged three HR in the first three games of the ALDS, fell back to Earth in the ALCS (2-for-17 with no extra-base hits), and ended up with overall numbers in the postseason that weren't distinctly different than his seasonal averages. Bengie rakes against lefties (.393/.430/.648) but has never been platooned despite his shortcomings vs. righties (.253/.294/.361). He is a contact hitter first and foremost, but his lack of speed causes him to hit into an inordinate number of double plays.

The oldest Molina brother is no longer the catcher he was in 2002-03 when he earned Gold Gloves by throwing out nearly 45% of base stealers. After a poor season in 2004, Bengie threw out an acceptable 31% last year. He is still an asset behind the plate and pitchers like working with him. However, Molina is a risky proposition for any team because of his age, weight, and poor conditioning.

Projection: 3 years, $20 million. An extra year or a few million more than prudence dictates.

17. Paul Byrd - 35 - SP - 2005: Los Angeles Angels

W-L 12-11 | SV 0 | ERA 3.74 | WHIP 1.19 | 102 K/28 BB

Every rotation could use a guy like Byrd. Although not a hard thrower, the veteran right-hander is effective because he throws strikes and changes speed. Paul is an old-fashioned pitcher in terms of his over-the-head windup and his style of painting the black with nothing more than average stuff. He is a nibbler and is much more comfortable working the outside, rather than the inside, part of the plate.

Byrd is much tougher on RHB (.234/.257/.382) than LHB (.306/.339/.473). The OPS differential has been about .200 over the past three years and his strikeout and walk rates are like night and day. To wit, Byrd's K/BB ratio over the past three seasons has been 9.05 vs. RHB and 1.58 vs. LHB. If Paul's not careful, he may end up being a ROOGY before his career is over.

Projection: 1 x $6 million with an option for a second year if the Angels sign him or 2 years, $12+ million should he go elsewhere. A serviceable pitcher when healthy.

18. Matt Morris - 31 - SP - 2005: St. Louis Cardinals

W-L 14-10 | SV 0 | ERA 4.11 | WHIP 1.28 | 117 K/37 BB

Morris is a fastball/curveball pitcher who throws strikes. His fastball topped out in the low-90s during the first half of the season and the high-80s in the second half. His overhand curve was once among the best in the game and his heavy sinker is primarily responsible for his above-average G/F ratio (1.60). Matt can be guilty of being around the plate too much and his HR rate has jumped to 1.22 per 9 the past three years vs. 0.58 from 1997-2002.

The big right-hander, who has had a history of struggling as the season progresses, posted an ERA of 3.10 prior to the All-Star break and 5.32 after. He gave up 113 hits (including 16 gopher balls) in just 88 innings and his K/9 plunged to 4.50. Morris is no longer the elite pitcher from 2001 when he was striking out nearly eight batters per nine and getting 2x the number of groundballs vs. flyballs.

Projection: 2 years, $13-15 million. Incentives, options, and buyouts likely to factor into his next contract.

19. Jacque Jones - 30 - OF - 2005: Minnesota Twins

.249 AVG/.319 OBP/.438 SLG | HR 23 | RBI 73 | 51 BB/120 SO

There is no question that other outfielders on the free agent list had better 2005 seasons or have had superior careers. None, however, are as young as Jones or play the outfield as well as he does.

Terry Ryan and the Twins have always been very stubborn regarding Jones. They should have realized a long time ago that Jones could not hit left-handers. In a continuing tradition, Jones hit poorly (.201/.247/.370) against southpaws. However, he continued to hit right-handers well, to the tune of an .814 OPS. He also is historically better away from the Metrodome (.822 OPS vs. .742).

Given the right context, Jacque Jones could succeed. He needs to stay away from Minnesota, preferably in a hitter's park. He also needs a good platoon partner, so he can avoid ever facing a southpaw again.

Projection: Last year, Jermaine Dye signed a 2-year, $10.15 million contract with the White Sox. The last $1.15 million is the buyout for a potential third season. Look for Jones to sign a very similar contract this winter.

20. Kyle Farnsworth - 29 - RP - 2005: Tigers/Braves

W-L 1-1 | SV 16 | ERA 2.19 | WHIP 1.01 | 87 K/27 BB

Few players are more frustrating to watch than Kyle Farnsworth. At times, he is as dominating as anyone. He mixes a fastball that can hit triple digits with an inconsistent slider and splitter. When Kyle gets the latter two over the plate, he is fantastic. However, he often falls into the trap of throwing these pitches too much, even when they aren't under control.

We have seen in the past what type of influence Leo Mazzone has on a pitcher. Mazzone had only a half-season with Farnsworth, but the results were sparkling: a 1.98 ERA, 32 strikeouts in 27.1 innings, and just 22 baserunners. Basically, we saw Mazzone bring out Farnsworth's ceiling. Kyle has always been close to breaking out, and there should be some closer openings that are willing to risk that he already has.

Projection: 3 years, $15 million. There is a lot of risk involved with Farnsworth, which will keep his next contract low. However, if he pitches like 2001 or 2005, this could be one of the winter's best deals.

Check back tomorrow for part three of this series, the final ten players on our list, as well as several honorable mentions. As for now, feel free to list your own projections -- and problems with our rankings -- in the comments section.

[Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

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The regular season gets underway in April, the playoffs in October, and free agency in November. Yes, baseball is about to embark on its third season this month. Thursday marks the last day in which players can file for free agency. Teams will no longer have exclusive negotiating rights. On Friday, about 200 players will be available to all 30 ballclubs, and the hot stove will be turned up to high.

To be nice, this free agent class is a weak one. Really weak. Excluding Roger Clemens, there are no superstars on the market. In fact, we believe there are fewer than ten players to get hot and bothered about. However, thanks to a recent XM Satellite radio deal, every Major League team has some extra money in the bank. And while the talent might not be up to par with past winters, you can bet the spending will be.

On a day in which the General Managers meet in Indian Wells, we have decided to begin to unveil our list of the top 30 free agents available this winter. There will be other players out there who can be acquired via trades or after non-tenders hit the market, but these 30 should represent the cream of the free agent crop. In a perfect winter, there would be a strong correlation between ranking and dollars spent. However, some teams will reach based on need and others will sit out altogether, making the process less efficient than one might expect.

We can only show you what we think of the players today, before you find out soon what your team thinks. We start with the best ten free agents in baseball, with the Major League ERA leader atop the list:

1. Roger Clemens - 43 - SP - 2005: Houston Astros

W-L 13-8 | SV 0 | ERA 1.87 | WHIP 1.01 | 185 K/62 BB

Clemens couples a riding fastball in the low-to-mid 90s with arguably the most effective splitter in the game today. The latter looks like his fastball until the bottom drops out at the end. Roger has the unique ability to work batters up and down the zone as well as both sides of the plate. He is without peer in terms of his physical and mental preparation and is as good as his health allows.

Which Clemens would the Astros get in 2006? The Rocket pitched as well as ever from April through August but was closer to replacement level in September and October. Roger averaged just five innings in eight starts down the stretch and in the postseason. His WHIP and ERA skyrocketed to an un-Clemens-like 1.53 and 4.81, respectively, while his strikeout rate plummeted to 5.44 per 9. Is Father Time catching up with the 43-year-old all-time great or was his poor performance a function of a nagging hamstring injury that could befell any pitcher? That's the $18 million question.

Projection: Either Clemens signs with the Astros or he retires. Only Roger knows. It all depends on whether he still has the fire in his belly. If he comes back at a reduced salary, the money saved could be redirected toward a third quality bat to go along with Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg -- giving Houston perhaps one last opportunity to make another postseason run before retooling for the future.

2. A.J. Burnett - 28 - SP - 2005: Florida Marlins

W-L 12-12 | SV 0 | ERA 3.44 | WHIP 1.26 | 198 K/79 BB

Burnett is the best starting pitcher among this year's free agent class, given the likelihood that Clemens won't sign with any team other than the Astros. The former Marlin is highly coveted and will be a big catch for whichever team lands him.

A.J. works in the mid- to upper-90s and has been known to hit triple digits on the radar gun. His repetoire includes an overpowering four-seam fastball, a two-seamer with lots of action, and a hump-backed curve that can flat out freeze hitters. He delivers the ball across his body at a 3/4 arm angle and is as deceptive as he is fast. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound right-hander has the stuff to contend for a Cy Young Award in either league.

Although Burnett was 0-6 with a 5.87 ERA in his last seven starts, he finished the season ranked sixth in MLB in G/F ratio (2.42), eighth in K/9 (8.53), and fourth in HR/9 (0.52). His ability to induce groundballs and whiff batters is a rare combination. A.J., who can go deep into games when he keeps his pitch count down, was tied for fourth in CG (4) and eighth in quality starts (23).

Projection: 4 years, $48 million. An expensive gamble given the number of times he has been on the DL throughout his career but one many teams won't hesitate to take.

3. Rafael Furcal - 27 - SS - 2005: Atlanta Braves

.284 AVG/.348 OBP/.429 SLG | HR 12 | SB 46 | 62 BB/78 SO

High on our list because of his blend of age, position, speed and defense in addition to what he provides with the bat. After watching Juan Uribe change the course of Game 4 in the World Series, you can bet General Managers will be salivating with the option of signing the one shortstop with a stronger arm. Furcal also fits great atop a lineup, as his baserunning (82% SB success rate) and patience (averaged 60 walks from 2003-2005) are both assets. This, not his DUI, should be the focus of GMs during evaluations.

2005 was Furcal's second best season ever, despite ending June with a .652 OPS. However, in each of the final three months his OPS was over .800, and his OBP was over .370. There is talk that Furcal was playing injured in the early going, explaining his struggles. His final two months, which were nearly identical -- .286/.377/.439 in August, .320/.383/.437 in September -- indicate when he stands as a player now. Rafael is a better bet to succeed over a four-year contract than Edgar Renteria, who might have made GMs wary of those deals with his mediocre season.

Projection: 4 years, $40 million. Edgar Renteria went from a .728 OPS in 2004 to this exact contract during the winter. Furcal will draw the same deal, and people will again cite that he's a "winner." Both sides will win at this rate.

4. Paul Konerko - 29 - 1B - 2005: Chicago White Sox

.283 AVG/.375 OBP/.534 SLG | HR 40 | RBI 100 | 81 BB/109 SO

Konerko is certainly the top slugger, if not the best hitter, among this year's crop of free agents. Paul hit 40 HR during the regular season and raised his profile by going yard five times in the postseason. However, a full 60% of Konerko's dingers the past five years have come at home-run friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

Like many sluggers, Konerko is a dead-red fastball hitter. Although hard throwers can pound him inside and get him to chase pitches up and out of the zone, he will sit on average fastballs down the middle and deposit them into the bleachers as well as anyone in the game. The veteran has improved his strike zone judgment over the years and drew a career-high number of walks (81) and BB per plate appearance (.122) while seeing more pitches/PA (4.15) than ever before.

Konerko is already at or near the far end of the defensive spectrum and, as a 1B, has nowhere to go other than to become a DH. Smart teams don't overpay for 1B/DH, especially those who will be 30 years old on Opening Day. Konerko already has the skill-set of an older player (a first baseman with strong power and little or no speed) and one has to wonder how well he will age.

Projection: At least a Richie Sexson-like 4 years, $50 million and a 5-year, $65 million deal isn't out of the question. Good luck.

5. Kevin Millwood - 30 - SP - 2005: Cleveland Indians

W-L 9-11 | SV 0 | ERA 2.86 | WHIP 1.22 | 146 K/52 BB

Pursuing Kevin Millwood with the expectation that he'll pitch like he did in 2005 is wrong. Much of what led to Millwood's 2.86 ERA was luck, as his 3.77 FIP might suggest. Millwood, a nine-year veteran, went from being an established flyball pitcher, to setting a career high with a 1.34 G/F ratio. He was then helped by having the AL's 3rd ranked defense (by DER) playing behind him. Add one of the better second halves of any pitcher in the Majors, and you have the AL ERA leader.

Paying the big right-hander ace money will be a mistake as Millwood's regression should leave him as a solid second or third pitcher. His stuff is above average, but the problem has been control for his entire career. Racking up high pitch counts has always been an issue, often preventing Millwood from going deep into games. The problem was hid well in 2005, however, in which Millwood went eight or more innings in one-fifth of his starts.

The expectations for Millwood going forward should be to pitch 190+ innings per year (in line with his average since 1998) with an ERA of about 3.50-4.00, depending upon the home ballpark and defense.

Projection: 4 years, $36 million. Again, expectations will dictate whether this contract is a success or failure.

6. Billy Wagner - 34 - RP - 2005: Philadelphia Phillies

W-L 4-3 | SV 38 | ERA 1.51 | WHIP .84 | 87 K/20 BB

Wagner is without a doubt the most sought after closer on the free agent market. His signature pitch is a four-seam fastball that touches 100-MPH. Wagner's heater is so unhittable, he went with it 87% of the time on the first pitch last year. The 10-year veteran reliever also throws a hard slider that he tries to bust-in on the hands of RHB and down-and-away to LHB.

Skeptics question Wagner's elbow, but the truth of the matter is that the little lefty pitched the second-most games (75) and innings (77.2) of his career while posting his lowest ERA (1.51) ever. With 284 saves, Billy is 40 away from ranking in the top 10 all-time. Moreover, he has the highest K/9 (12.0) among pitchers with at least 500 innings and is the only one who has struck out two batters for each hit allowed in the history of baseball.

Projection: 3 years, $30 million. That's more than $128,000 per inning based on last year's totals. By comparison, Clemens earned just $85,000 per inning despite making a record $18M for a pitcher.

7. Brian Giles - 34 - OF - 2005: San Diego Padres

.301 AVG/.423 OBP/.483 SLG | HR 15 | RBI 83 | 119 BB/64 SO

If you want offensive production, Giles is your man. The 10-year veteran has essentially been a .300/.400/.550 hitter over the course of his career while averaging 100 R/RBI/BB and 30 HR per 162 games. Although Giles may be past his prime slugging years, he is still an on-base machine as evidenced by ranking first in MLB in BB (119) and fourth in OBP (.423) while playing half his games in Petco Park, unquestionably the most difficult hitter's ballpark in baseball.

Giles hit .267/.378/.417 at home and .333/.463/.545 on the road. His away stats ranked 7th in AVG, 1st in OBP, and 20th in SLG, while placing 6th in OPS behind only Derrek Lee, Jason Bay, Travis Hafner, Albert Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera. Put another way, Brian outproduced Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Andruw Jones, and Manny Ramirez on the road. His 148 OPS+ last year was the fifth-best in the NL and his 146 career OPS+ puts him 11th among all active players.

Projection: 3 years, $30 million. Well worth it, at least for the next two seasons.

8. Hideki Matsui - 31 - LF - 2005: New York Yankees

.305 AVG/.367 OBP/.496 SLG | HR 23 | RBI 116 | 63 BB/78 SO

In 1996, Hideki Matsui broke through. After beginning his career modestly with the Yomiuri Giants, Matsui hit 38 home runs, 16 more than his previous career high. Over the next six seasons, Matsui never hit fewer than 34 home runs in a single season. He has yet to hit that many in the Major Leagues, playing in almost 25 more games per season. Hideki looked headed in that direction in 2004, hitting 31, but dropped again in 2005.

Despite not hitting the ball out of the park consistently, Matsui has been one of the most dangerous Yankees at the plate for three years. He is a fantastic gap hitter, and uses the whole field because of great bat control. He struck out less than ever this year, leading to his best average since coming to the States. Hideki also has the "clutch" label attached to him -- until the 2005 postseason -- thanks to good career numbers in October and with runners in scoring position.

Along with his pluses on the baseball diamond, Matsui is sure to be a positive from a business perspective. He comes with a substantial fan base, one that helped make the Yankees (along with Seattle) one of Japan's teams. This cannot be ignored, as Matsui will likely help the bottom line more than any other player on the current market.

Projection: 3 years, $36 million. The Yankees won't lose him, nor care if they overpay by a couple million. Expect more of the same for all three years of this deal.

9. Johnny Damon - 31 - CF - 2005: Boston Red Sox

.316 AVG/.366 OBP/.439 SLG | HR 10 | RBI 75 | 53 BB/69 SO

If Matsui is considered consistent, Damon is a rock. Since his first full year in 1998, his numbers down the line look extremely similar, minus (of course) batting average. As a leadoff hitter, his game is very batting average dependent, making his 2005 season appear that much better. It must be considered, however, that Johnny's BABIP this year was .343. Because of this, there is a good chance that after he signs, Damon begins looking much more like 2002-03 than 2004-05.

Damon's value is atop the order, which means his slide in walks per plate appearance this season must stop. His baserunning is still good, although Boston asked him to attempt just 19 steals in 2005, despite being caught only once. If he leaves Boston, look for Damon to steal 25 bases again. His speed also helps in the outfield, where he takes very good routes to the ball. His throwing arm, however, rivals Jeff Bagwell's. Atrocious, and you can bet every third base coach in the Majors knows this much.

Projection: 3 years, $33 million. In four seasons with the Red Sox, Damon became one of New England's most recognizable faces. Loyalty pays a steep price.

10. B.J. Ryan - 29 - RP - 2005: Baltimore Orioles

W-L 1-4 | SV 36 | ERA 3.54 | WHIP 1.14 | 100 K/26 BB

You can bet that if the 1998 draft was held again, Ryan would not slip until the 17th round. Since that draft, collegiate closers have become more respected, and his promise to rise quickly to the Majors would have interested teams more. One ideological change that did help Ryan, however, was because of Eddie Guardado: southpaws can be more than situational.

Ryan was in danger of falling into that role, averaging well less than an inning per appearance from 2001-2003. However, the improvement of his fastball -- a pitch that now runs from the low-to-mid 90s and has quite a bit of movement -- convinced Oriole brass that he was late-inning material. Oh, and you can bet his slider, ranking among the game's best, didn't hurt.

B.J. didn't disappoint in his first year as closer, blowing only five saves -- three of which came in two weeks during July. The only split worth noting is his 1.19 ERA in Baltimore, as opposed to 3.86 on the road. However, Ryan's age, stuff, and numbers all promise for good things going forward.

Projection: 4 years, $32 million. Bidding war will run high considering his number of suitors. His value should remain solid.

Check back tomorrow for part two of this series, the next ten players on our list. As for now, feel free to list your own projections in the comments section.

[Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

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Say what you will about the Chicago White Sox -- but they are the World Champions. They are definitely the most unlikely Champs in recent memory, coming out of baseball's most mocked division to rise above one of the deepest fields in years.

Before, we chronicled this field (with the help of our friends) in the What Went Wrong series, which dealt with more than half of baseball's teams. All these teams were perceived as contenders as late as September. But it was the White Sox, who jumped out of the gate quickly and never looked back (well, maybe a little bit) that won their first World Series title in almost 90 years.

We thought a great way to follow the What Went Wrong series would be to look at what was different about the White Sox -- about what went right. So, we've asked the Cheat from South Side Sox to share some insight about baseball's newest champs.

1) Congrats, Cheat. Tell us, how do you think this team was able to rise to the top in October?

It's tough to pin it down to one thing. If I was forced to classify it, I would say it was pitching, defense, and the timely HR. -- The Sox obviously had the deepest pitching staff in baseball. I mean they were able to leave Brandon McCarthy (1.69 ERA in his final 42 IP) off of the playoff roster for crissakes.

2) How did their playoff performance parallel the regular season? Was this the Sox playing their best ball of the year, or showing the nation what you saw since April?

I would say that their October run was very similar to how they started the regular season. The Sox had a lead in their first 38 regular season games to set a major league record. During that streak, they seemed to score first in probably 80% of their games. I've never seen a team be able to do that.

When they reached the playoffs, I was listing some keys to each game on my site. Invariably, I would list "score first" as one of the keys. Not only were they very good at getting a lead, the Sox were the best team I have ever seen at taking a 1-0 lead in the first, and making it hold up all game long. They just carried over what they had been doing all year long into the playoffs.

3) What misconception about the White Sox has come out since the World Series that you would like to correct?

Smallball. Smartball. Ozzieball. Whatever you want to call it. It certainly wasn't the reason that the Sox had the best record in the AL.

I will concede that Ozzie's predisposition to playing for one run in the first inning probably helped the Sox score first in more games than they would have without the smallball approach. And as I mentioned before, I've never seen a team that played better with a slim lead, so smartball may have had a positive effect on the team, just not in the way you hear most talking heads and columnists fawn over it.

4) After a team wins, the competition suddenly wants to follow their model. Tell us, Cheat, if you had to explain the White Sox model to another GM, what would you tell them?

You need a starting rotation full of above average, historically healthy, arms. You need strong defense up the middle, SS and CF being most important. You need above average defense from everyone on your club. You need above average power throughout the lineup. You need 6 good arms in the bullpen, no dead weight. -- Then, you need a little luck.

If you build the team that I highlighted above, you're probably not going to win the World Series, but you're almost assured of making the playoffs. And that's really the goal, right Billy Beane?

5) What is your opinion on the influence a manager can have on a team, particularly in the playoffs?

In the playoffs, not very much. The manager's job, more than anything, is to manage the bullpen. There was a stark contrast between Ozzie Guillen and Phil Garner after the first two games of the series though. Garner seemed dejected, and focused too much of his time on complaining about the roof situation. Guillen was busy being the clown prince of baseball. I suppose that had something to do with the Sox being up 2-0, but I suspect that Guillen would have been the same down 0-2.

Over a whole season, however, a manager can have a great effect on the club. Ozzie was particularly good at handling the bullpen. For the most part, he had his best pitcher from the 'pen pitching in the highest leverage situation. It sounds like a simple plan, but most managers are too busy sticking with the "closer pitches the last 3 outs" philosophy.

6) When did it become apparent to you that this team was World Championship caliber?

During their games lead streak to start the season, it was clear to me that this team was special, but when we talked at the time I couldn't predict anything more than a trip to the ALCS. The Sox fan in me wouldn't let the rational side of my brain realize that they could win the World Series until Juan Uribe went diving into the stands in game 4.

It was really coming down to the wire there at the end with Cleveland breathing down their necks. I was more interested in the Wild Card standings for about a week before they clinched.

So I guess there were two points. The first was early in the year when they were steamrolling everyone, and the second was the day they clinched the Central. At that point, Jose Contreras had been the 2nd best pitcher in the AL (to Johan Santana) for the last two months, and I felt like the Sox had an ace in the hole that nobody really knew about.

7) When were you most worried? What was the season lowlight?

The whole month of August was a pain, but the Sox still had a sizable lead on Cleveland that I was sure they couldn't lose. The one stat that I kept harping on during that time goes back to the score first mantra. They went from July 30th until September 20th without winning a game when facing a multi-run deficit at any point in the game. -- I was sure they couldn't compete in the playoffs during that stretch of games.

The absolute low though was a few games in September. They lost 5 of 6 games, and held a multi-run lead in each of the losses. I think I may have reached my lowest, and started focusing exclusively on the Wild Card, after Brandon McCarthy lost a pitcher's duel to Johan Santana.

8) What was the club's major weakness during the season?

The #3 spot. It was Kryptonite to anyone who batted there except Frank Thomas. In general, you like to have a high average guy who can also hit for power in the #3 spot. The White Sox #3 hitters combined for a .234/.296/.419 line. Only the bay area teams had a worse combined OPS from their #3 hitters.

9) Briefly, how do you hope Ken Williams corrects this and other weaknesses this winter?

It looks like he's addressed part of it already. Carl Everett, who received a majority of the at-bats in the #3 spot, didn't have his option picked up and was bought out by the Sox. Who he gets to replace Everett remains to be seen.

I would say the needs are a left-handed hitter with a good batting eye, preferably on the cheap. Erubial Durazo (if healthy) and Matt Lawton (before the juice) were two guys who I had my eye on. Aside from those two, I don't really see a free agent on the market who really fits what the Sox need. -- I suspect Williams will have to get creative on the trade front to really be proactive.

10) Who would you label as the team MVP and LVP?

The MVP has got to be Konerko. He was the only consistent threat in the lineup. His free agency puts the Sox in a really tough spot. He's going to command a 6-year deal on the open market, and that's going to be an albatross of a contract in just a couple of years.

For LVP I'd have to go with Jurassic Carl again. He was one of the easiest outs in baseball for most of the second half.

11) Finally, what expectations should people have for this team to repeat in 2006?

They're certainly not the '98 Yankees, so there's no reason to start engraving their name on the '06 trophy just yet. They do, however, return everyone from the deepest pitching staff in baseball, so I wouldn't count them out either.

2006 will come down to whether the pitching was a fluke -- I think Garland and Contreras can repeat, but some of the members of the bullpen like Cotts, Hermanson, Politte should regress -- and what Kenny Williams does to the offense this winter.

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With both a World Series and All-Star Game victory in hand, we know one thing: the American League is currently baseball's dominant conference. It appeared before the playoffs that it would be a crapshoot which AL team won, as all were legitimate title contenders. In the NL, this really could have only been said about two teams.

When it was all said and done, the White Sox prevailed, beating out the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. Today, we want to look at the three losers, remembering their seasons through some of the best team writers in the blogosphere.

We start with the American League runner-up, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Even the name change couldn't put the team over the hump, though some would argue the Angels were one good umpire away from moving to the World Series. No matter what, it had to be a great season in LA, as the team was in first for much of the season and also fought off the rival A's run in the second half. In to talk about the season is Rob McMillin, from 6-4-2:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

Without a doubt, offense. In the ALDS, the bottom of the order carried the Angels, the top four going 16-77 (.207) and accounting for only nine RBIs. Alleged catalyst Chone Figgins disappeared (4-21). Though Vlad went 6-18, he didn't collect a single RBI, and Figgins' failure to get on base was a main culprit. These problems only got worse in the ALCS, with the top of the order going a mind-numbing 10-73 (.137) and collecting a grand total of four RBIs. As Joe Sheehan has said, this is an offense that works when everyone's hitting .280, but falls apart when everyone's hitting .265.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

The Angels have three major problems with their offense.

1. A reluctance to take playing time away from veterans. Steve Finley, and to a lesser degree, Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad all absorbed at bats at times when their performance could have been outmatched by someone on the bench. Respectively, that would have been Chone Figgins, Juan Rivera, and Casey Kotchman. Kotchman in particular has proven himself as earning the starting job next year; the team simply can't afford to let Erstad, who has become a slap-hitting singles hitter, continue to play first. It's too much to hope that Stoneman releases Finley, by far the most useless regular hitter on the squad, but in the absence of that scenario, it's hard to see how Scioscia doesn't play him in 2006. That is, veteran hitters, no matter how bad, are a temptation Mike can't let pass.

2. A failure to get a real leadoff hitter. Chone Figgins plays one on TV, but he's not really capable of working a walk, and as a result, Garret Anderson and Vlad don't often have a guy to drive in by the time they get to the plate. David Eckstein used to be able to get walks and the odd hit-by-pitch to get on base, but there isn't really anyone on this team -- save for bench player Jeff DaVanon -- willing to shake hands with ball four. This is as much an organizational failing as it is a player issue, so the Angels will have to find someone out of the organization to fix it. One answer might be to put Kotchman, who has a very good eye, at leadoff, but that presumes that (a) they won't play Erstad regularly, and (b) you would want a guy with 20-25 HR production and not necessarily a lot of speed at that slot. Going outside the organization means finding a middle infielder or another centerfielder.

3. An absence of power. This one's actually the easiest problem to solve, and what it means is playing Kotchman as a regular, and Dallas McPherson to get healthy. McPherson will be 26 next year, which means he doesn't exactly have a lot of time, and so will have to prove himself next year or risk becoming an intermediate solution until Brandon Wood can replace him.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

Shooting from the hip:
Regular season MVP: Vlad.
Postseason MVP: Bengie Molina
Regular season LVP: Steve Finley
Postseason LVP: Vlad Guerrero, followed closely by Darin Erstad. Both of them gave up at bats, weakly grounding out innumerable times. Vlad had the excuse that his shoulder was bothering him; Erstad had no such excuse.

4) Season Highlight:

Certainly, being the first team in the AL to clinch a postseason spot, finishing with the second-best record in franchise history.

5) Season Lowlight:

1-4 in the ALCS. This team beat the Chisox in the regular season series, and should have done so in the postseason. Some of that was luck and a remarkable string of terrible calls by the umpiring crew, but a good bit of it was lousy offensive strategy, and giving away at bats.

We move from the team the White Sox beat in the ALCS to their ALDS opponents. Despite all the current drama that has taken over the Boston Red Sox, it really wasn't too bad of a season for the defending World Champs. The club showed a lot of guts winning the Wild Card over the Indians and A's but, in the end, the pitching staff could not match Chicago's in the first round. Randy Booth from Over the Monster has agreed to share his views on the season:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

If you watched the Boston Red Sox for just one game in the 2005 season, you immediately became aware of their largest problem: pitching. Whether it be starting, middle relief, long relief, or the closer situation, it was all atrocious and entirely evident in the post-season.

It all started when Curt Schilling couldn't hit his spots, Keith Foulke was hitting his spots too well, and Terry Francona making bad bullpen decisions. From there it just escalated to a point of no return. The Boston offense was the best in the majors, but if your starter can't go seven innings with solid relief, you'll still lose.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

General manager? At this moment in time, we have no general manager. That's a different story, though. Still, I'll toss out a few ideas. Let's just pretend I'm the GM for a day.

A reliable starter needs to be added. Whether it's a #1 or #3 type, we need to fill that specific hole. Jonathan Papelbon will be a huge help if he's added to the rotation (which he should), but we'll still need someone if the Sox trade David Wells. I hope the Sox also trade Manny Ramirez and Keith Foulke. Not for nothing, but both are deteriorating the clubhouse chemistry. That brings me to another thing: forget the chemistry. Dump Kevin Millar and the loyalty. We need to add players that play the game well, not wear Tom Brady jerseys to practice.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

The team's MVP is most definitely David Ortiz. .300 batting average, .397 on-base percentage, 47 home runs and 148 runs batted in. Don't forget numerous game winning hits and the fact he is the glue that holds together the team and the lineup.

The LVP is a little harder to decide. Many would say Edgar Renteria is the LVP, but I won't go that far. He was too good to be the LVP. For the LVP, we must head to the pitching staff where all the problems were. I am torn to pick some of the short-term relief pitchers, but I'm going to stick with someone who lasted the whole year as a Red Sox and was a huge disappointment: Foulke. 5.91 ERA and five losses in 45.2 IP before he landed on the disabled list for the rest of the season. If we had Foulke at the top of his game, we may be holding the World Series trophy in Boston once again.

4) Season Highlight:

The season highlight is debatable, but I don't think I'll forget when Curt Schilling made his walk from the bullpen to the mound in his first appearance as a closer for the Boston Red Sox on July 14. The crowd roared and a feeling was sent through many fans' bodies. I can honestly say I never re-felt that feeling for the rest of the season.

5) Season Lowlight:

The lowlight has to come on September 1 when the Red Sox lost to the Yankees, and once again allows the Yankees to clinch the American League East. The Red Sox led the East for the majority of the season, yet we lose it in the final weeks.

Wait 'til next year, I guess.

It was a heartbreaking season for New York relative to expectations. The acquisition of Randy Johnson was supposed to be the one that put them back in the World Series. As it turned out, Johnson, who failed to live up to his standards, had a difficult time carrying an injury-depleted and underperforming staff. Before this team reloads for the 2006 campaign, Cliff Corcoran from Bronx Banter has agreed to share his feelings about what happened in 2005:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

Despite what you might read elsewhere, the Yankees lost the ALDS to the Angels not because the Angels pitched around Alex Rodriguez (which they did), but because Randy Johnson punted Game 3. One could argue that the Yankees came from behind to take a lead in Game 3 after Johnson was removed, but had Johnson pitched at the level he had established during the September surge that put the Bombers in the playoffs to begin with, that would not have been necessary. Of course, despite his struggles, Johnson was the Yankees' most valuable pitcher (well, Johnson or Mariano Rivera), so the fact that he wasn't the dominant pitcher the Yankees thought they had traded for cannot be called an "overarching problem." Nor can the team's Game 5 struggles with runners in scoring position, as the Yankees were second in the majors (to the Red Sox) in runs scored during the regular season.

With the spectacular exceptions of Rivera and Tom Gordon, the Yankees' relief corps was an overarching problem in 2005, but that didn't really hurt them in the playoffs. It was the 10-0 Aaron Small who took the loss in Game 3, and Johnson himself filled the middle relief role with great success in Game 5. Rather, the one overarching problem that contributed most to the Yankees' ALDS loss was their awful team defense. Chien-Ming Wang should have won Game 2, but errors and misplays by Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Wang himself handed the game to the Angels. Meanwhile, the decisive play of Game 5, and thus the series, came when Gary Sheffield collided with Bubba Crosby while attempting to catch Adam Kennedy's fly ball in the second inning and the ball dropped for a two-run triple.

There's nothing that could have been done about Giambi, Rodriguez or Wang. The latter two are generally good to excellent fielders and Giambi has, consistently throughout his career, been a far superior hitter when playing first base as opposed to DHing, and is thus able to out-hit his poor defense at first (indeed, he was the Yankees most productive hitter in the ALDS). But the Yankees could have done something about their centerfield situation, which remained unresolved even in the postseason. The Yankees' failure to sign Carlos Beltran, despite his disappointing performance with the Mets, remains the biggest mistake in one of the worst, if not the worst, winters in franchise history. Following that failure, their inability to settle the centerfield situation during the season, be it via trade or the decision to give the defensively superior but offensively questionable Crosby the job for better or worse, led directly to that misplay in Game 5. If Sheffield and Crosby are used to playing next to one another the odds are that Sheffield would have looked for Crosby or Crosby would have called off Sheffield (which the replays showed neither did) and Crosby would have caught Kennedy's "triple" unencumbered. Instead, it was clear that neither expected the other to be there, which could only be the result of a lack of familiarity with the one another's range.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

As I said, there's nothing to be done about the infield defense, but the Yankees have to find someone who can play centerfield on an everyday basis. Unfortunately, there's not much out there. Perusing the free agent market, it boils down to Kenny Lofton -- who was dumped by the Yanks for Felix Rodriguez last winter, presumably in anticipation of the arrival of Beltran, only to go to Philadelphia and see spikes in both his hitting and fielding numbers -- and Johnny Damon. Lofton will be 39 in May and Damon is sure to be overvalued due to the dearth of alternative options, the Championship ring on his finger, his flowing locks, and in spite of his age and lack of a throwing arm. That leaves a trade or a Cano-like rookie-cum-savior. Neither of which is a particularly attractive option as the latter is as unlikely as the former would be costly.

The player the Yankees could most afford to deal is Gary Sheffield, as they could sign Brian Giles, who is two years Sheffield's junior and outperformed him in 2005, to play right and swap Sheffield for a centerfielder with perhaps a middle-relief throw in (Sheffield to Minnesota for Hunter and Rincon or Romero?), but Sheffield's comments around the trading deadline last year, advancing age (he'll soon be 37), declining production (it's subtle but it's there), and likely demands for a contract extension wherever he ends up are likely to put the kibosh on such a deal. Meanwhile, the Yankees hole in centerfield is so glaring that other teams are sure to attempt to fleece the New Yorkers, asking for top prospects such as Phillip Hughes and Eric Duncan or the established rookies Wang or Cano in exchange for, say, Juan Pierre (for whom I foresee a Womackian future) or the rapidly aging and currently damaged Torii Hunter or Mike Cameron. I'm not sure I have an answer here.

Brian Cashman's other important tasks are re-signing Hideki Matsui, but for no more than three years, rebuilding the bullpen from scratch (save Mo, of course -- it appears Gordon is headed somewhere he can close), and finding a back-up catcher who can hit, thus extending what's left of Jorge Posada's usefulness.

And, just to be greedy, I'd sign Giles anyway, sticking the aging and perpetually hurt Sheffield at DH (where he's an even more frightening hitter) and forcing Giambi into the field where his bat is most potent.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera were clearly the team's best hitter, pitcher and reliever respectively, a status they've enjoyed no matter what uniform they've worn throughout their careers. Rodriguez (.321/.421/.610), however, was clearly the most valuable player on the Yankees this year. After all, he is one of the game's true greats and he had one of the best seasons of his career. As such, he was not only the Yankees' MVP, but the obvious choice for MVP of the American League.

You might expect me to list Tony Womack (.249/.276/.280 in 351 plate appearances) as the Yankees' Least Valuable Player, but Womack, though a detriment as a whole, did things of value during the season, including stealing 27 bases in 32 attempts (84 percent), playing uncharacteristically outstanding defense during his one month as the Yankee second baseman, seeing 3.89 pitches per at-bat (even if he only watch ball four go by twelve times all year), picking up a couple of game-winning hits, and playing multiple positions. Indeed, Womack was a virtual world-beater compared to the Yankees' true LVP, John Flaherty (.165/.206/.252 in 138 PA). Despite having less than 40 percent as many plate appearances, Flaherty's VORP was -9.6 to Womack's -8.9. Honorable mention to the starters whose performances set those of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon into such sharp relief: Jaret Wright (-9.8 VORP), Kevin Brown (-9.5 VORP), and Darrell May and the unfairly rushed Sean Henn, who combined to be 17.2 runs below replacement in a mere 18 1/3 innings pitched.

4) Season Highlight:

Sunday, September 11, with my girlfriend and me cheering them on from the right field bleachers, the Yankees win the rubber game of their final home series against the Red Sox 1-0, a stirring pitchers duel between Randy Johnson and Tim Wakefield that was decided by a short-porch Giambi homer in the first on a Wakefield curveball. That game kicked off an 11-1 run that catapulted the Yankees to their eighth straight AL East title.

5) Season Lowlight:

After a dismal 11-19 start the Yankees appeared to have salvaged their season with a ten-game winning streak in early May that kicked off a 16-2 stretch that pushed them eight games over .500. That stretch was halted by a pair of home loses to the Red Sox at the end of May in which Boston outscored the Yankees 24-3. But that wasn't the worst of it. No, the worst was the three game sweep at the hands of the AL-worst Kansas City Royals that followed in which the Yankees scored a total of six runs. That sweep dropped the Yankees to 27-26 on June 2. They would lose the next day in Minnesota to drop back to .500 and wouldn't shake the .500 mark for good until early July.

Thanks again to our wonderful guests for providing their insights. We move out of the pessimistic world tomorrow as we take a look at What Went Right with the World Champion Chicago White Sox, before turning our attention toward the Hot Stove.

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No one remembers the losers. In the past, we used our What Went Wrong feature to provide coverage to teams that failed to make the playoffs. Here's a look at previous editions:

Indians, A's, Giants
Nats, Marlins, Phillies
Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Twins

Now, with the baseball season over, all the talk is focused on the champion White Sox and off-the-field job openings. Suddenly, the teams that were so close have been discarded for the hotter issues. So while some outlets spend time worrying about the Dodgers GM opening or Mets offseason concerns, we thought now would be a good time to talk about the teams that barely missed.

Today, we have interviewed bloggers from each of the four National League playoff representatives. We will deal with the American League tomorrow, and the multi-part series will conclude with a What Went Right version on the World Champion Chicago White Sox.

We begin with the last National League team standing, the Houston Astros. There is no doubt had the Astros caught a few breaks -- and balls found the right holes -- they would be atop the baseball universe. This team had such an impressive run after some early struggles, and their great playoff play should not be forgotten because of their World Series sweep. In to talk about the Astros' season is Darrell Pittman from AstrosDaily.com. His answers:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

Inability to drive in runs with men in scoring position. For example, in the four World Series games, the Astros stranded 35 baserunners, 22 of whom were in scoring position.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

All the off-season moves hinge on whether Roger Clemens comes back for '06. He made $18M in '05. Owner Drayton McLane has set the 2006 payroll limit at $85M, a large portion of which goes for Clemens, Bagwell, Berkman, and Biggio. Other players are going FA or are arbitration-eligible. If Clemens retires, it frees up a huge chunk of change for GM Tim Purpura to play with. The scuttlebutt in Houston is that Clemens will come back after the All-Star break to make a run for the pennant while healthy, and to play with his son Koby in September. He would thus take a reduced salary.

The Astros need to get at least one bona fide hitter (perhaps two) to protect Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg, preferably a left-handed or switch-hitting outfielder. Even if Clemens returns, we need a decent #5 starting pitcher. Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio just don't cut it.

3) Who would you label the regular season team MVP and LVP?

MVP: Morgan Ensberg had a breakout year (.283/36/101), postseason hampered by HBP hand injury in September.

LVP: Much as I hate to say it, Jeff Bagwell -- understandably poor production after return from shoulder surgery.

4) Season Highlight:

When the Astros won NLCS Game 6 to advance to their first-ever World Series.

5) Season Lowlight:

Being 15-30 on May 28. The Houston Chronicle published an article on June 1 showing a gravestone with "Astros 2005 Season" on it.

From April to September, the NL Central belonged to the St. Louis Cardinals. Their players made it obvious that nothing would be acceptable besides a World Series victory. However, in the end, the Cardinals were done by one of their own -- division rivals that they had spent a season dominating. In to discuss the season that was in St. Louis is Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos fame. His thoughts to the What Went Wrong questions:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

The old farts in the outfield. By October, 38-year-old Larry Walker was in tatters -- herniated disk in his neck, bad knee, and unspecified other complaints -- and not even a late-season cortisone injection (his fourth of 2005) could hold him together. He went 3 for 28 in the postseason. Another OF geezer, Jimmy Edmonds (35), had a sore right shoulder that wouldn't heal and couldn't turn on a fastball; his only two meaningful hits in the postseason both went to the opposite field, one of them on a hit-and-run. The killing blow came when the Cards' third Methuselean outfielder, 37-year-old Reggie Sanders, wiped out on the warning track in NLCS Game 2; he got only 1 hit in 12 at-bats after that while striking out 7 times, and his inability to bring home the tying run from third with nobody out in the 9th inning of Game 4 was very costly.

It's only fair to point out that Houston's excellent pitchers had a lot to do with shutting down the Cardinal bats. But I am not willing to give them all the credit. Clemens was beatable, as both the Braves and White Sox showed. So was Brandon Backe, whom the Cards dented for just 2 hits in Game 4, their only respite from the Big Three. With the offense unable to provide much margin for error, the rest of the Cardinals' game wilted. They made 5 errors in the series while turning just 3 double plays, the reverse of their regular-season proportions. The bullpen was unmasked as inadequate. Worst of all, the team's composure got called into question during Game 4 of the NLCS, when their frustration over Phil Cuzzi's amorphous strike zone led to two late-inning ejections.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

The Cardinals need to get some youth into the lineup, even if only in a part-time capacity. The organization possesses no everyday talent at the higher minor-league levels, but it has some surplus pitchers who are already in the majors or close to being there. Jason Marquis, Brad Thompson, and Adam Wainwright are all young and have upside, and I'd like to see the Cardinals convert some or all of them into either a) a position player who's still in his 20s and has some growing room (Austin Kearns comes to mind), or b) position-player prospects who are no more than a year away from the majors. Jocketty isn't offering blue-chippers and won't get blue-chippers back, but it's a numbers game - he might get lucky. At the very least he might land one or more useful platoon players, or an everyday guy who can deliver league-average performance at bargain rates.

With the window of opportunity open now, however, the Cards may not be able to resist the temptation to pay full retail for off-the-rack-veterans and try to take another run at a title in 2006. Jocketty loves Brian Giles (35 years old next season) and will surely try to sign him as a replacement for the retired Larry Walker. He may also bring back affordable free agents Mark Grudzielanek (35) at second and Sanders in left. St. Louis might be able to get away with that approach for one more year, and might even be able to combine it with a pitching-for-prospects swap as described above. But if the Cardinals don't get younger soon they're going to wind up where the Giants are.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

Regular season: MVP Pujols, LVP . . . . sadly Ray King. I say "sadly" because he spent most of the summer watching his father die slowly of cancer; it affected his pitching, and by the end of the year La Russa had no confidence in him (nor did King merit any). After failing to get called into a single postseason game, King angrily requested a trade. He really wasn't that bad in 2005, but standards are high on a 100-win team and Ray came up short.

Postseason: MVP Pujols again, although you could make a case for Reggie Sanders, who drove in 12 runs in St. Louis's first four playoff games, all of them wins; once he stopped hitting, the offense was never the same and the team went 1-4. The postseason LVP goes to Edmonds, whose failures came in many forms. His lax pursuit of a ball in the gap early in Game 2 enabled Chris Burke to stretch a double into a triple, setting up Houston's first run. In the same game Edmonds twice stranded the tying and lead runs on base (5th and 7th innings). In the 8th inning of Game 4 he stupidly took arbiter Cuzzi's bait -- an egregiously bad called strike on what was clearly ball 4 -- and got himself ejected at a critical point in a critical game. And in Game 6 his 6th-inning error enabled the Astros to score an important insurance run.

4) Season Highlight:

Without question the most exhilarating moment was Pujols' season-extending homer off Brad Lidge in Game 5; sadly, the high was ephemeral. In a broader sense, Chris Carpenter's emergence as a Cy Young candidate was very satisfying, and it was a kick to see the team keep winning -- as if from sheer force of habit -- no matter how many everyday starters went on the DL. Scrubs like Abe Nunez and John Rodriguez got a chance to make real contributions, and they came through; fun to see.

But for me, the highlight was getting familiar with David Eckstein. After the signing, Cardinal fans were told we'd love his hustle and dedication and all that other bullshit, and I was fully prepared to reject the guy along with the l'il-scrapper storyline. I gradually learned from watching him play that he wasn't just some souped-up version of Rex Hudler, using "hustle" cynically to grandstand and create a reputation (and a market) for himself. This guy could actually play, and the vaunted "hustle" was really a misnomer for intelligence and composure. In late July he executed a walkoff squeeze to beat the Cubs; about a week later he hit a walkoff grand slam to beat the Braves. A real winner; a champ.

5) Season Lowlight:

The Cubs owned the Cardinals this year, which is always painful. But the aforementioned Game 4 of the NLCS was absolutely brutal. The umpiring was maddening enough, ditto the Cardinals' mystifying impotence (for the second straight year) against the nondescript Backe and their failure to execute simple plays -- a muffed bunt in the 7th inning set up Houston's winning run. But despite of all that, and despite the two ejections, the Cardinals still managed to nudge their win expectancy over 50 percent in the top of the 9th inning -- 1st and 3d with nobody out, down a run, against a suddenly hittable Lidge. We would learn just how hittable the following night, and during the World Series -- but here, in a game they had to have, they couldn't get the ball out of the infield. The game-ending double play on John Mabry's slow roller to second pretty much summed up Cardinals in that series: a quarter-step slow.

The Astros also eliminated the Atlanta Braves from the playoffs. Like the Cardinals, this season was the same story for Braves fans, who watched a dominant regular season precede a postseason belly-flop. We have to respect the Braves for overcoming the odds to win yet another division championship, but the first-round defeat in the postseason has an all too familiar ring to it. Here to share his pain is Mac Thomason from Braves Journal. His responses:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

The easy answer is probably what was the problem all season long, "the bullpen". But that's only a part truth; the bullpen lost only one game in the Division Series and that in seventeen innings. Certainly, the Braves would have extended the series to five games had they gotten a decent relief performance out of Farnsworth in Game Four, and poor relief in the other two games (when the bullpen came in with small deficits and let the Astros blow it open) was a big problem. But that was only part of it.

I would say that the real Achilles heel was that the Braves weren't able to score many runs except via the longball, especially later in the season. The real reason they lost Game Four is that they couldn't get a run in without a homer despite numerous chances in extra innings.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

For the bullpen, I'd like them to get a couple of non-closer, "good reliever" types and hope one of them takes over the main job and the other the eighth innings. Hope that Joey Devine and Blaine Boyer are healthy. Don't overpay for Billy Wagner, tempting as he might be.

As for the other, replace Adam LaRoche with a real first baseman, or move Chipper to first and get Andy Marte into the lineup every day. Resign Furcal, one of the few players on the team who can produce runs without a homer.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

Andruw Jones is the easy pick for MVP, though a lot of sabermetrical types are a little down on him. Second place Marcus Giles, third probably Furcal. Arguably, though, the one man that the Braves could least have afforded to lose was John Smoltz, who kept the staff afloat in the first half when the 2-4 starters all went down.

LVP is also easy, the inimitable Danny Kolb, though Adam LaRoche had what would be an LVP season most years.

4) Season Highlight:

For me, Andruw Jones' walkoff walk against the Natspos in the tenth inning, July 16. The Braves took over first place for good that day, starting a three-game sweep of the Natspos, who never looked like a contending team again.

Alternatively for those who think that a walk is a silly highlight, Andruw breaking Aaron's and Mathews' team single-season home run record.

5) Season Lowlight:

Brad Ausmus, two out in the ninth inning, Game Four or Chris Burke, 18th inning, same game.

Last, and certainly least, we are left with the San Diego Padres. After a very lackluster regular season resulting in a win in baseball's worst division, the Padres' season ended just as we expected: a sweep. It's unfair to say the Padres were a bad ballclub, though they certainly weren't the caliber of the other three NL playoff teams. Longtime blogger Geoff Young, of the great Ducksnorts blog, shares his thoughts on the Friars:

1) What overarching problem proved to be this team's Achilles heel in the postseason?

In the postseason? Not playing as well as the Cardinals, I suppose. Basically, it was the same problem that plagued the Padres throughout the regular season: inability to execute with any kind of consistency. Specifically they didn't hit in the clutch, they didn't play good defense, and they didn't run the bases very well.

The Padres were actually competitive in every game of the NLDS. It's just exceedingly difficult to beat good teams when you spot them eight runs. Obviously Jake Peavy's broken rib didn't help matters.

During the regular season, in addition to the above, injuries were a big problem. But the same could be said of any NL West team. Beyond that, there were too many games in months other than May.

2) How do you hope your team's GM deals with this problem and others over the winter?

First, we need to figure out who our GM is. We think it is Kevin Towers, but with two pretty high-profile vacancies, and Towers already having interviewed with the Diamondbacks, anything is possible.

I think the Padres already have addressed a couple of things by moving Phil Nevin and not renewing the contract of first base coach Davey Lopes. Getting a legitimate center fielder and first baseman, along with some guys who can make throws from the outfield, would be a good start. I'd like to see youngsters such as Ben Johnson and Xavier Nady (and maybe even Freddy Guzman and Josh Barfield) get a shot at regular playing time.

If the Padres can find takers for any of Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, or Woody Williams, that would help. There's some pretty good (not great) young talent in the organization, and I'd like to see some of those kids get a chance to show what they can do. But with veterans clogging up the rotation, spots will be limited.

3) Who would you label the team MVP and LVP?

MVP: Three-way tie among Brian Giles, Jake Peavy, and Scott Linebrink. Giles very quietly put together a tremendous season, while Peavy is one of the best young pitchers in the game. As for Linebrink, nobody outside of San Diego knows who he is, but among pitchers who have worked 150 or more innings over the past two seasons, only Mariano Rivera has a lower ERA. Linebrink is lights out, and I have no doubt that he could close for most teams in either league.

LVP: With all due respect to Darrell May and Tim Redding, this has to be Nevin. He tried, but there just wasn't anything left in the tank.

4) Season Highlight:

September 17: The Padres are down 5-0 at home with two out in the ninth. They score a run, and then the Nationals bring in Chad Cordero, who walks a guy before giving up a game-tying grand slam to Khalil Greene. Ramon Hernandez ends it in the 12th with a three-run homer. Unreal.

Okay, so I guess sometimes they hit in the clutch.

5) Season Lowlight:

The Redding start in St. Louis May 8, when the Cardinals scored 11 runs in the first inning, was pretty brutal. Any of a number of baserunning blunders throughout the year; Mark Sweeney getting picked off third base in Houston immediately leaps to mind.

But if I had to pick just one, I'd say it was learning that Peavy pitched Game 1 of the NLDS with a broken rib. The Padres had a legitimate chance against the Cardinals. Peavy hurting himself during the division championship victory celebration was a killer. Maybe his being healthy wouldn't have made a difference in the end, but it's hard not to think "what if..."

Thanks very much to our guests for their fantastic answers today. Please support them by checking their sites often, as they are the best the blogosphere has to offer. And also check back tomorrow, as we will touch on the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels, before ultimately analyzing the White Sox championship run.

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World Series Preview: Astros vs. White Sox

After nearly seven months of regular season and postseason play, Major League Baseball has eliminated 28 of its 30 teams from the chance to win the World Serious. The defending champs are out. The team with the most championships and the highest payroll is out, too. So is the only ballclub to win 100 games during the regular season. Gone also are 17 other franchises that have won it all since either of the two finalists this year enjoyed the fruits of victory.

Take a bow (and send us the link) if you thought the White Sox and the Astros were going to face each other in October. Heck, give yourself a pat on the back if you thought just one of these two teams would make its way to the Fall Classic. It may not be Kansas City-Colorado, but you would be a rich man or woman had you laid a grand on the White Sox and Astros outlasting everyone else.

We're now down to the nitty gritty. The first pitch is only hours away. Weather permitting, it looks like we will have a winner before Halloween. Read on for our latest tricks or treats.

**The Limbo Series: How Low Can We Go?**

In a nutshell - Big Three vs. Fab Four

Bryan's Take: So, this is what it all comes down to. The ninth-ranked American League offense against the NL's number eleven? A battle of two clubs with aggregate OBPs of .322? Um, isn't this supposed to be the World Series?

However, what the series lacks in offense, it makes up in pitching and defense -- the two things that are supposed to win come playoff time. And you would be hard-pressed to find two better teams in these areas, both two of the Majors top four clubs in ERA and defensive efficiency. In this regard, the Astros are little different than the White Sox's last opponent, however better in both categories. For Houston, the White Sox are a worse team than the Cardinals, albeit a hotter one.

In winning twelve of their last thirteen games, dating back to September 28 of the regular season, the White Sox have allowed more than three runs just once. They have not allowed more than four runs since losing to Cleveland on September 21. Nineteen games, 41 runs allowed, 2.18 RA. For one-eighth of the season, the White Sox have been unstoppable.

This is, of course, almost all due to great starting pitching. By now, we all know the story. Four straight complete games, the first time (in the postseason) since 1928. Credit this to Ozzie Guillen and Don Cooper, a pair to both trust their starters as well as the fact that this bullpen will not implode due to over-rest. Also credit the White Sox foursome, a group that truly saved their best stuff for the right time.

This just in: Astros pitching is pretty good, too. While more apt to allow runs lately, the Astros will put their four best pitchers (and yes, I know that this keeps getting repeated) up against anyone in the game. Brad Lidge along with the three best Astros starters had a 2.46 ERA during the regular season. The White Sox four starters, their key pitchers in this series, were more than a full run higher at 3.52.

So, from a pitching standpoint, it's all about which White Sox staff will show up. It's also about whether Andy Pettitte can begin pitching in the postseason like he did all year. Whether the Rocket is just too beat-up to lead his team to their first ever World Series win. Whether the White Sox bullpen can withstand any semblance of a workload.

Shocking news, I know, but this series is less about runs scored than we could have imagined in this new era of baseball.