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Year of the Rookie: The 2010 AL Edition
Last week, we took a look at the Rookie of the Year candidates in the National League. This week, we're looking at the top MLB-ready (or almost ready) prospects in the American League. There are some impressive players on the cusp on the Major Leagues for 2010 so it should be an exciting race in the season to come.
Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore One of the top 2008 draft picks, Matusz more than held his own in an eight-game trial at the Major League level in '09. He posted a 4.08 FIP in 44.2 innings. The southpaw showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.82 BB/9 and he missed some bats (7.66 K/9). On the downside, he allowed a lot of hits (52) and produced a low ground-ball rate (31.2%), which led to a HR/9 rate of 1.21. With that said, he's well positioned to take over the No. 4 starter spot - right behind Brad Bergesen and one spot ahead of sophomore Chris Tillman - in the Orioles rotation in 2010. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Detroit The Tigers organization has not afforded many opportunities to rookies over the past few years but Sizemore is one of two prospects that should see regular playing time in the field. The 25-year-old second baseman will be making his MLB debut if he makes the club out of spring training as expected. Last season, he split the year between double-A and triple-A. At the senior level, he hit .308/.378/.473 in 292 at-bats. Overall, he slammed 17 homers and stole 21 bases (in 25 tries) on the year. Sizemore saw an increase in both his power and speed numbers in '09 so we must be cautious in our expectations: a .270 batting average with 10 homers and 15 steals is probably a good start. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Part of the loot for Curtis Granderson, the 23-year-old outfielder spent all of '09 in triple-A but would have reached the Majors in '09 for most clubs. Jackson hit .300/.354/.405 in 504 at-bats. His power numbers were down last year (.105 ISO) but he showed good speed on the base paths and nabbed 24 bases in 28 attempts. On the downside of Jackson's game, he doesn't walk enough for a top-of-the-order hitter (7.2%) and he strikes out too much for his modest power (24.4%). Defensively, he has good range in center field. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Davis, 24, impressed a lot of people with his first six MLB starts. In 36.1 innings of work, he allowed 33 hits and posted a walk rate of 3.22 BB/9. He also had a solid strikeout rate at 8.92 K/9 and his FIP was 2.90. There is some concern around the fact that he allowed a 25% line-drive rate and he'll likely need to use his secondary pitches a little more in '09 after favoring his heater (74.2% of the time). When he used it, his curveball was a valuable pitch. The Rays have an exciting, young rotation with James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Davis. Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson is also not far away. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas After a lights-out debut as a reliver in '09, there has been some talk that the Rangers should just leave Feliz, 21, in the 'pen so he can dominate hitters. Luckily, the club has decided not to do that, though. Feliz' ceiling is even higher than Joba Chamberlain (who has been in a similar situation with the Yankees) but the Rangers organization desperately needs reliable starting pitching. In '09, Feliz gave up just 13 hits in 31.0 innings and showed good control for his experience level (2.32 BB/9). Along with a .129 batting-average-against, the right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.32 K/9 and had a tiny line-drive rate of just 4.6%.
Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland The recent signing of Russell Branyan hurts Brantley. The outfielder could now lose playing time to Matt LaPorta (a natural first baseman) who will likely get at-bats in left field in 2010, like he did in '09. Brantley will certainly not push Grady Sizemore out of center or Shin-Soo Choo out of right. As the fourth outfielder, though, Brantley could still be a valuable player and is one injury away from significant playing time. The rookie is a rare young player who truly understands his game. With zero power (.094 ISO in triple-A), Brantley's game is to get on base and use his legs (46 steals in 51 tries). He's done a nice job of actually walking more than he strikes out in his minor league career (1.23 BB/K in '09). Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Taylor was busy this past winter, going from Philadelphia to Toronto to Oakland during the Roy Halladay trade (He was flipped from Oakland in a rare prospect-for-prospect trade that saw Brett Wallace land in Canada). The 24-year-old outfielder spent much of the '09 season in double-A where he hit .333/.408/.569 in 318 at-bats. He also appeared in 30 games in triple-A and he was a 20-20 player on the year. Taylor has the potential to be a very good player but he's currently blocked at the MLB level by both Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney - two inferior players. Expect Taylor to break through sooner rather than later.
Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Toronto Toronto tried unsuccessfully to trade incumbent first baseman Lyle Overbay during the off-season. However, he's in the last year of a multi-year deal so it's possible that the rebuilding Jays will be able to find a taker in the second half of the season. Wallace has the potential to be a .280-.300 hitter with 20-plus homers. He's definitely not a third baseman so first base (or DH) is his future destination. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto With the trade of Roy Halladay, the Jays club has few proven arms in the starting rotation, which will benefit Drabek as he attempts to break through to the Majors. On the downside, he's low man on the totem pole with quite a few arms ahead of him, including Marc Rzepczynski, Brett Cecil, Brad Mills, David Purcey, Zach Stewart, etc. Drabek's fastball/curveball combination could help him reach the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland The talented Santana will not be held off for long by fellow rookie Lou Marson. Santana is an offensive juggernaut with the ability to hit .300 with 20+ homers. He's also a proven run producer (97 or more RBI in the past two seasons) and he gets on base at a crazy rate thanks, in part, to his walk rates of 15-16%. The only hole in his game right now is his defense, as he was converted to catcher just a few years ago. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago Another offense-first catcher, Flowers received his first taste of MLB action in '09. Veteran A.J. Pierzynski is signed through 2010, which is really the only thing keeping this prospect from blooming in the Majors this season. The slugger is similar to Carlos Santana in the fact that he gets on base a lot (18.0% in double-A) with power (.246 ISO) but he's not going to hit .300 in the Majors. The Braves organization will likely regret trading Flowers more than Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Jesus Montero, C/DH, New York As scary as it is to consider, Montero's bat may be MLB-ready right now. And that's keeping in mind that he has just 44 games above A-ball and he's just 20 years old. With that said, his defense behind the plate is definitely not ready. As such, and considering that the club is not desperately in need of offense right now, there is no harm in keeping Montero is the minors where the organization can only hope his defense improves enough to make him a future backstop in the Majors. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Another slugger, Carter is suffering the same fate as Michael Taylor; the first baseman has no where to play right now, although he may be MLB ready. Carter can only hope that Daric Barton (or Jack Cust) will have a slow start to the season. A .250-.270 projected hitter in the Majors, the former White Sox prospect could hit 30-40 homers with massive strikeout numbers. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Jennings is a step behind Matt Joyce, who already has his own sabermetric fan club. However, a slow start could mean disaster as Jennings is all but ready for a MLB shot. The prospect showed improved power in '09 while also hitting above .320 with 52 steals (in 57 tries). If Jennings makes it to the Majors and shares the outfield with B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford, the Rays may have one of the best defensive (and speediest) outfields in all of Major League Baseball. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay The future sure is bright in Tampa Bay. Hellickson is another Rays prospect that is blocked by other young players. Just 22, he's shown consistently-good control throughout his career and he posted a walk rate of 2.35 BB/9 in nine triple-A starts in '09. He also managed a strikeout rate of 10.99 K/9. On the year, right-handed hitters batted just .164 against Hellickson. One thing he needs to work on, though, is his ground-ball rate, which was just 39.9% combined between double-A and triple-A. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Smoak got off to a good start in double-A in '09 and he hit .328/.449/.481 in 183 at-bats. He also produced an outstanding walk rate of 17.2%. When he moved up to triple-A, Smoak found the pitching a little more challenging and his triple-slash line dropped to .244/.363/.360 in 197 at-bats. His BABIP went from .375 to .293. Once he shows a little more pop against southpaws (.214 average vs LHP, .326 vs RHP), the smooth-fielding Smoak should take over first base.
Year of the Rookie: The 2010 NL Edition
One of the more exciting story lines each season in Major League Baseball is the Rookie of the Year race. The announcement of the eventual winners is really not the best part, though. The most exciting aspect of the competition is the race itself for the simple fact that we get introduced to the stars of tomorrow. The 2010 season is shaping up to be another great year for rookies. The '09 season ended up being a pretty amazing run with fans being introduced to the likes of Florida's Chris Coghlan, Atlanta's Tommy Hanson, Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen, Oakland's Andrew Bailey and Brett Anderson, Baltimore's Chris Tillman, Toronto's Ricky Romero, and Texas' Elvis Andrus... as well as many, many others. This week, we'll take a look at the National League's most promising rookies. Over the past 10 seasons, the winners of the Rookie of the Year award have gone on to do some great things. Some of those successful winners include: Milwaukee's Ryan Braun, Florida's Hanley Ramirez, Philadelphia's Ryan Howard, New York's Jason Bay, and St. Louis' Albert Pujols. A few of the past winners that have failed to build upon their immediate successes include Florida's Dontrelle Willis, and Colorado's Jason Jennings. The jury remains out of '08 winner and Chicago Cub Geovany Soto.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Yeah, last summer's top draft pick could probably hold his own in the Majors right now. But why should he? The organization would be much better off by giving him some minor league innings of experience and delaying his arbitration eligibilty, which will therefore help control his cost and possibly keep him in Washington longer. Strasburg is likely already better than three projected members of the '10 starting rotation: Scott Olsen, J.D. Martin, and Garrett Mock. And he could very well be better than John Lannan, and Jason Marquis. You really have to appreciate how rare it is for a prospect - with basically zero pro experience - to be better than all five big-league pitchers in a club's starting rotation. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco The Giants club saved Molina from a chilly free agent market, but who is going to save general manager Brian Sabean from himself? The club's man-crush on veterans is once again showing its ugly face, as the MLB-ready Posey is in danger of A) beginning the year in the minors, or B) seeing his development stunted by playing multiple positions. Yes, the kid is athletic enough to play a number of positions, but he hasn't been catching all that long so he needs to keep polishing his act behind the dish. Long-term, his value is at its highest by wearing the tools of ignorance. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Over the past year, as the Heyward love has increased, readers have been asking: "Is Heyward really that good?" In a recent FanGraphs podcast I likened his possible immediate big-league impact to Albert Pujols... and yes that is extremely high praise, but the 20-year-old outfielder really is that good. Check out his triple-slash line from double-A in '09: .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. With Chipper Jones in decline, Heyward could be the club's best hitter in 2010 (His biggest competitior is probably Brian McCann) and, with apologies to Tommy Hanson, he is the future face of the franchise. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Fans received a glimpse of Escobar's potential last season after he replaced incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy, who was demoted to the minors. With Hardy's off-season trade to Minnesota (which says a lot about the club's faith in its new shortstop), the full-time gig is now Escobar's and he could have an Elvis Andrus-type of season at shortstop for the Brewers... and the Rangers' infielder's '09 season was good enough to earn him the runner-up spot in the Rookie of the Year race in the American League. Escobar is a little bit more experienced than Andrus and he has a great glove, as well as some speed on the base paths (42 steals in 52 tries at triple-A in '09). With the likes of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the line-up, the rookie should score a lot of runs. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco There has been a lot said about Bumgarner's drop in velocity in '09 but velo, although important, is not the end-all-and-be-all for a pitcher's success. With that said, the lefty could probably use a little more seasoning in the minors if you consider the fact that his FIP has risen (3.56 FIP in double-A, compared to his ERA of 1.93), while his K/BB has dropped (to 2.30 BB/K), with each promotion. Bumgarner still has the ceiling of a No.2 starter for me, but he's just 20 years old. However, the fact that Wellemeyer is the other option for the fifth spot worries me.
Josh Thole, C, New York You can't really fault the Mets organization for nabbing Barajas. The club got great value for a veteran catcher who slammed 19 homers last year for the Blue Jays. Thole is a much different type of player, with almost zero power (.094 ISO in double-A). However, you don't find many big league catchers that can hit .300 with a solid eye at the plate. Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Storen is that other guy that Washington selected in the first round of the '09 amateur draft. Well that other guy is rather talented, too, although he'll need to shed the curse that has infected the likes of Craig Hansen and Ryan Wagner - fellow college relievers who reached the Majors quickly only to burn out almost as fast. Storen's chances of closing for Washington in '10 took a significant downturn after the club acquired both Capps (free agency) and Bruney (trade). Ian Desmond, SS, Washington The Washington organization has been promoting Desmond as its shortstop of the future since he was in High-A ball and he's seemingly struggled with the pressure at times. However, a strong '09 season, which included as successful MLB audtion, seemed to finally thrust him into the '10 starting role by bumping incumbent shortstop Guzman to second base. However, the club then went out and signed Adam Kennedy to play second, which now shifts Guzman back to short or it will make him a very expensive back-up. Chris Heisey, LF, Cincinnati The Reds club recently re-signed Gomes to a big-league deal so he's the favorite for playing time in left field. However, there is a rather unimpressive backlog of outfielders, including Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien and Laynce Nix, vying for playing time at the position. Heisey could end up being the best of the bunch, although his long-term outlook is probably fourth outfielder due to his average power for the outfield corner. Eric Young Jr., 2B, Colorado I'm an unapologetic Young Jr. fan. As such, I have no issues with suggesting that he brings more to the table on offense than Barmes, who currently projects to receive the majority of the playing time at second base. Yes, the incumbent hit 23 homers, but he also posted a .294 OBP. The ability to get on base and steal 50+ bases from Young could have a much bigger impact in the Rockies lineup, which would wreak havoc on the base paths with four 20+ stolen base threats. Maybe the Rockies and I can meet half way if the club agrees to use Young in a super-sub role that guarantees him 400 at-bats.
Mike Stanton, RF, Florida Stanton is one of the Top 5 prospects in all of baseball but the club is likely to receive more immediate help from first base prospect Logan Morrison. Stanton reached double-A in '09 at the age of 19 but his massive strikeout rates (33.1%) and modest double-A numbers suggest he has more work to do. Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson, RHPs, Chicago The Cubs big league club is set to infuse some youth into its veteran-laden rotation. Both Cashner and Jackson and near-MLB ready, which is good considering the health questions surrounding most of the pitchers in the starting rotation. Jason Castro, C, Houston The tandem of Towles and Humberto Quintero will not strike fear in the hearts of many opponents. However, Towles has posted some good minor league numbers so there is still hope that he'll realize his potential. If he continues to struggle, though, Castro should be summoned to the Majors... and he has a much brighter future than rookie shortstop Tommy Manzella, who has received a lot of attention lately. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh LaRoche cannot afford to slip this season. The incumbent third baseman had a respectable season in '09 (.324 wOBA) but he is now 26 and has yet to play up to his former prospect hype. Alvarez' triple-slash line at double-A in '09 (.333/.419/.590) has the former No.1 draft pick breathing down LaRoche's neck. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati The Cincinnati Reds organization surprised a lot of people by making a late, successful charge at the hard-throwing Chapman. He's impressing a lot of people early on in spring training but it's probably a little much to expect him to step right into a big league rotation. The organization seems serious about trying to win in '10 so it likely won't hesitate to lean on Chapman if he has some early success.
Reviewing the 2009 Rule 5 Draft
It was a pretty lackluster Rule 5 draft this past Thursday, which was to be expected. Since October 2006, when Major League Baseball increased the 40-man roster addition requirements from three years of pro experience to four (for players signed at age 19 and above) and four years to five (for players signed at age 18 and below), it's given teams more time to evaluate their in-house talent. You can find the rules for the draft HERE. Of the 17 players selected in the '09 Rule 5 draft, 14 were pitchers (six left-handers, eight right-handers). Two outfielders were taken (with the first and second picks) and a third baseman was also selected (eighth overall). In 2008, the Rule 5 draft saw four of the 21 players selected stick in the Majors in '09: shortstop Everth Cabrera (San Diego from Colorado, third overall pick), left-hander Donald Veal (Pittsburgh from Chicago NL, fourth overall pick), right-hander Luis Perdomo (San Francisco, later claimed on waivers by San Diego, from St. Louis, sixth overall pick), and right-hander Darren O'Day (New York NL, later claimed off waivers by Texas, from Los Angeles AL, 15th overall pick). In 2007, 18 players were selected. Perhaps the biggest name selected was right-hander Randy Wells, who went from the Chicago Cubs to the Toronto Blue Jays. He actually made Toronto's opening day roster, but had just one appearance before being offered back. In '09, he was called up to the Majors by the Cubs and was one the best rookie starters in the National League. During the 2006 draft, two significant diamonds in the rough were uncovered: right-hander Joakim Soria (Kansas City from San Diego, second overall), and outfielder Josh Hamilton (Cincinnati via Chicago NL, from Tampa Bay, third overall). Catcher Jesus Flores (Washington from New York NL, sixth overall) has also shown promising, although he's been bitten by the injury bug. The Intriguing Picks Ben Snyder | LHP | Texas via Baltimore, from San Francisco A former fourth-round pick out of Ball State, Snyder is a left-hander with good stuff, and above-average command (although his control has slipped a bit since leaving A-ball). He'd probably be more successful in the National League than in Texas, but the 24-year-old southpaw has a chance to contribute out of the 'pen if he can keep the ball down. Unfortunately, his 37.1% ground-ball rate suggests he didn't do that overly well at double-A in '09. He has nice splits against left-handers: .178 average, 1.71 BB/9, 10.65 K/9. With C.J. Wilson as the only guaranteed left-hander in the bullpen in 2010 (and possibly the recently-acquired Clay Rapada), it was smart of the club to target some southpaw depth. Bobby Cassevah | RHP | Oakland from Los Angeles (AL) If you're a ground-ball freak like me, then Cassevah is your man. The 24-year-old right-hander spent the '09 season in double-A and posted a ground-ball rate of 70% on the season, which is borderline ridiculous. Over the past four seasons, he's allowed just four homers. Aside from the sink, his stuff is otherwise ordinary (velo, break, etc.). His control could get him into trouble in the Majors (4.54 BB/9) and his strikeout rate has dropped each of the past three seasons, but he's a good gamble. Cassevah adds some depth to an inexperienced bullpen, but it remains to be seen just how good the A's infield defense is going to be in 2010. Hector Ambriz | RHP | Cleveland from Arizona A solid starting pitcher at UCLA for four seasons, Ambriz' stuff does not play as well in pro ball, thanks to his below-average heater. He did have some nice results in triple-A in '09, though, despite the 5.57 ERA. His FIP was just 3.80 and he suffered from a .372 BABIP, so you can explain away some of those 164 hits in 127.2 innings. He has always shown good control (2.82 BB/9 in '09) and he misses enough bats (7.26 K/9). Career-wise, he has pretty even numbers against right-handed and left-handed hitters. Despite making just three relief appearances over the past three minor league seasons, Ambriz is not an option to start in the Majors (especially the AL), but he could provide innings out of the inexperienced 'pen. Steven Johnson | RHP | San Francisco from Baltimore Part of the loot in the mid-2009 trade of closer George Sherrill to the Dodgers, Johnson made just seven starts for his new organization before heading back to the NL West. The right-hander has average stuff, but he has good command/control and posted a strikeout rate of 9.43 K/9 on the season. Although he struggles with his control against left-handed hitters (4.83 BB/9), Johnson handles them well otherwise: .219 average, 10.28 K/9. The club basically traded Snyder for Johnson, which was a pretty good move, especially considering the organization already has pretty solid left-handed depth. And Johnson has a chance to pitch out of the starting rotation down the road. Kanekoa Texeira | RHP | Seattle from New York (AL) The better of the two Te(i)xeiras to lose, Texeira was acquired from the White Sox prior to the '09 season. Given the organization's reputation for trading pitchers who then fall victim to injuries, New York may have just been happy to get one healthy season from the reliever. In 101.1 double-A innings, the durable righty allowed 90 hits and posted a walk rate of 3.82 BB/9. His strikeout rate of 7.82 K/9 was solid, as was his 61.2% ground-ball rate. He certainly won't benefit much from Seattle's excellent outfield defense. Oddly, his strikeout rate was 10.69 against left-handed batters and just 4.25 against right-handed batters. With the likes of Sean White, Jason Vargas, and Garrett Olson vying for spots in the bullpen, Texeira has a good shot at making the opening day roster.
Jamie Hoffmann | OF | New York (AL) via Washington, from Los Angeles (NL) This choice was puzzling... and made even more so by the fact that the Yankees traded up to get Hoffman. Yes, the 40-man roster boasted just four outfielders prior to the Rule 5 draft, but the club does not need to pinch pennies in effort to build its bench. As well, if Hoffmann is such a desirable commodity, why didn't the Yankees grab him on waivers when he was designated for assignment by the Dodgers just three months ago on Sept. 1/09? He'd have more value in that scenario because he has minor-league options remaining, which cannot be utilized as a Rule 5 pick. Most of Hoffmann's player value is in his defense, as well as his willingness to take a walk (11.1% in triple-A) and his base running (15+ steal capability in regular playing time). John Raynor | OF | Pittsburgh from Florida Raynor is an interesting pick for the Pirates organization, which actually has a fair bit of depth at the position with the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Lastings Milledge, Brandon Moss, and Delwyn Young (as well as Garrett Jones) kicking around. Raynor brings some speed (18 steals in 26 attempts) and the ability to play all three outfield positions. He had an off-year in '09 by hitting just .255/.326/.357 (.336 BABIP) after back-to-back seasons of hitting .312+, but he also had BABIPs of .404 in each of those two seasons. As a result, his '09 numbers appear far more realistic. Raynor needs to curb his strikeouts (27.0%). Chuck Lofgren | LHP | Milwaukee from Cleveland Another interesting pick-up, Lofgren was considered one of Cleveland's top pitching prospects as recently as 2007. His stuff has gone backwards since then, but he still has an above-average breaking ball that could make him an OK LOOGY reliever in the Brewers 'pen (He has modest left/right splits. At double-A in '09, Lofgren allowed 94 hits in 98.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.02 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.67 K/9. If either Mitch Stetter or Chris Narveson falter, Lofgren should be ready to step in. Edgar Osuna | LHP | Kansas City from Atlanta With just one left-hander (Dusty Hughes) on the 40-man roster prior to the selection of Osuna, the organization clearly needed some southpaw depth. The 22-year-old hurler reached double-A in '09 where he allowed 74 hits in 77.1 innings and posted a walk rate of 2.44 BB/9. While his control rates have remained fairly static over his career, Osuna's strikeout rate has dropped rather significantly since he left low-A ball and bottomed out at 5.70 K/9 in double-A. His career 40% ground-ball rate is nothing to write home about. You also have to hope the Royals are not looking to him as a LOOGY. His career splits are not favorable: .285 average/7.05 K/9 vs lefties and .242/8.90 vs righties. Jorge Jimenez | 3B | Florida via Houston, from Boston There is honestly nothing about Jimenez that really suggests he's going to be even an average big-league third baseman. The left-handed hitter is a platoon waiting to happen, with a double-A OPS of .600 against southpaws. Overall, he hit just .289/.366/.424 in 498 at-bats. With a .135 ISO, his power output is below-average for a third baseman. But hey, Jimenez, 25, is probably an offensive upgrade over Emilio Bonifacio. Zach Kroenke | LHP | Arizona from New York (AL) Kroenke is an interesting selection, as he was also picked in the '08 draft. However, the Florida Marlins chose not to keep Kroenke and he was offered back (and accepted) by the Yankees. If the southpaw fails to make the Arizona club this time around, he will become a free agent before the Yankees have a shot at taking him back. The 1.99 ERA at triple-A in '09 is nice, but his FIP was 3.64 and he was aided by a low BABIP at .251. His strikeout rate was nothing special at 6.84 K/9 but his ground-ball rate of 60.0% against left-handers suggests that he might have a future as a LOOGY. The Diamondbacks club could use some help in that department with just Clay Zavada currently on hand. Mike Parisi | RHP | Chicago (NL) from St. Louis Injuries prevented Parisi from making more than five starts during the regular season in '09. However, he pitched well in the Arizona Fall League and showed a heavy ball. Parisi made seven appearances (six starts), which was obviously enough to catch the eye of the Cubs. He'll open the 2010 season at the age of 27, so he has little upside. The club can use the depth in the bullpen. Zech Zinicola | RHP | Toronto from Washington Zinicola actually had a better season than many of his stats would suggest. The right-hander posted a 3.25 FIP in 20.2 innings at double-A and a 3.29 FIP in triple-A, so his defense definitely let him down at the higher level, which led to the 47 hits in 33.1 innings, and misleading ERA. The .417 BABIP and 52.5 LOB% are definitely not going to stick. Zinicola does have a nice heater (topping out around 93 mph), which led to a strikeout rate of 8.37 in triple-A, and he displayed at least average control in '09. You also have to love the 56.7% ground-ball rate, as well as the low 11.8% line-drive rate. On the worrisome side, Zinicola has struggled against right-handed batters in each of the past two seasons (.345 average in '09, .318 in '08), possibly due to inconsistent fastball command. The Jays club has a fair amount of depth in the bullpen, so Zinicola could have trouble finding a home. Carlos Monasterios | RHP | Los Angeles (NL) via New York (NL) from Philadelphia Monasterios, 23, was originally acquired by the Phillies from the Yankees in the Bobby Abreu deal of '06. The right-hander has average stuff, but he displays above-average control and posted a walk rate of 2.96 BB/9 in high-A ball in '09. He worked as a swing-man this past season, making seven starts and 28 relief appearances. Repeating high-A ball in '09, Monasterios improved his home-run vulnerability and dropped his HR/9 rate from 1.81 to 0.44. He opened some eyes recently while pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League and has allowed 45 hits in 51.1 innings. His ceiling is probably middle to long reliever in the Majors. Ben Jukich | LHP | St. Louis from Cincinnati Another low-ceiling pick, Jukich is 27 years old and he spent the entire year in triple-A with the Reds. In 123.0 innings split between the starting rotation and the bullpen, he allowed 125 hits and posted a walk rate of 2.93 BB/9. He had some trouble with the long-ball and posted a HR/9 rate of 1.17. His numbers against southpaws were nothing to write home about: .242 average (.164 BABIP), 5.71 K/9. Dennys Reyes has a potential partner now, though, in the bullpen. Armando Zerpa | LHP | Los Angeles (NL) via Tampa Bay, from Boston Along with Monasterios, the Dodgers actually added two Rule 5 picks, and the club is not likely to compete for the NL West title with both pitchers in its bullpen. Zerpa is definitely the odd man out at this point, even if he has the edge of being a lefty. The club actually already has pretty solid depth and Zerpa has pitched just 16 games above low-A ball. He allowed just 19 hits in 45.0 low-A ball innings in '09 but he was helped significantly by a .200 BABIP. Zerpa does generate a fair number of ground balls (53.3%) and he has good career splits against left-handed hitters (.166 career average). Kenny (David) Herndon | RHP | Philadelphia from Los Angeles (AL) A 2006 fifth-round pick of the Angels, Herndon never developed the secondary pitches needed to stick in the rotation. After dabbling in relief in '08, he went all-in in '09 and posted a 4.65 FIP in 65.1 innings. He gave up too many hits in double-A (70) but he didn't hurt himself by issuing walks (1.93 BB/9). His 4.82 K/9 rate leaves something to be desired, as does the 1.24 HR/9 rate. Herndon has never fared well against left-handed hitters, and they hit .313 against him (with a strikeout rate of just 2.54 K/9) in '09.
The 2009 Draft Deadline Looms
About a month ago we took a look at which 2009 first round draft picks had come to terms with their new organizations. Not a whole lot has changed since then, but there have been a few more signings. With just four days to go, though, that is sure to change in a hurry. As it stands, Bobby Borchering (Arizona) and Donavan Tate (San Diego) are both rumored to be close to agreeing to contracts. The majority of the national coverage will no doubt center around first overall pick Stephen Strasburg and whether or not he'll be able to come to an agreement with Washington. Let's see who has already signed in the first round and how they're doing with less than a month to go in the minor-league season. The players who have signed since our last update have been underlined. Signing bonuses have also been added for everyone in the first round. 4. Pittsburgh: Tony Sanchez | Catcher | Boston College [$2.5 million] Sanchez has yet to slow down despite playing in low-A ball. The 21-year-old catcher has a line of .347/.460/.574 with four homers in 101 at-bats. He also has a nice walk rate of 12.9 BB% and a respectable strikeout rate at 19.8 K%. 5. Baltimore: Matt Hobgood | RHP | California high school [$2.422 million] Hobgood has made four short starts in rookie ball and has a 6.75 ERA (but 3.33 FIP) in eight innings. He's struggled with his control by walking five batters, but he also has seven Ks. 7. Atlanta: Mike Minor | LHP | Vanderbilt [$2.42 million] Minor recently signed and has yet to make a professional appearance. 10. Washington: Drew Storen | RHP | Stanford [$1.6 million] Storen was the quickest signee, agreeing to a contract on draft day. He's already pitched well at two levels (low-A, high-A) and he just made his first appearance in double-A. Storen worked a perfect inning and he could be in Washington in September. 17. Arizona: A.J. Pollock | Outfielder | Notre Dame [$1.4 million] His numbers aren't flashy, but Pollock has been holding his own in low-A ball. He currently sports a line of .267/.306/.404 with three homers and five steals in 161 at-bats. Pollock could stand to be a little more patient at the plate (4.7 BB%). 20. Toronto: Chad Jenkins | RHP | Kennesaw State [$1.35 million] Jenkins just came to terms with Toronto yesterday (Wednesday) so he has yet to make a pro appearance. 21. Houston: Jiovanni Mier | Shortstop | California high school [$1.358 million] Mier is arguable having the nicest pro debut so far of any of the first rounders. He is currently hitting .298/.405/.476 with three homers and eight steals in 124 at-bats. He is showing advanced patience at the plate with a walk rate of 13.3 BB%. His strikeout rate is a little high at 22.6 K%. 23. Chicago AL: Jared Mitchell | Outfielder | Louisiana State [$1.2 million] Mitchell spent a little time on the disabled list after signing but he's been hitting well since being activated. Mitchell currently has a line of .277/.440/.415 in 65 low-A at-bats. He's stolen four bases in seven attempts and has a walk rate of 22.6 BB%. Unfortunately, that comes with a strikeout rate of 33.8 K%. 24. Los Angeles AL: Randal Grichuk | Outfielder | Texas high school [$1.242 million] Grichuk, like Mier, is having a nice pro debut with a line of .324/.359/.500 in 182 rookie at-bats. Unfortunately, his walk rate is just 3.7 BB% and his BABIP is a highly-unsustainable .442. He's stolen six bases in nine attempts and has 21 extra base hits, including 12 doubles and seven triples. 25. Los Angeles AL: Mike Trout | Outfielder | New Jersey high school [$1.215 million] Trout is also producing an outstanding line at .369/.424/.541 with 10 steals in 111 at-bats. His BABIP, though, is also out-of-this-world at .460. He has a better handle on the strike zone than his teammate Grichuk, with a walk rate of 9.8 BB% and a strikeout rate of 20.7 K%. 26. Milwaukee: Eric Arnett | RHP | Indiana [$1.197 million] Arnett's superficial numbers are not very good (0-3 record, 5.09 ERA) but he's allowed just 14 hits in 17.2 innings of work and has a FIP of 3.60. The biggest red flag for this right-hander is the walk rate at 7.13 BB/9. 28. Boston: Reymond Fuentes | Outfielder | Puerto Rico high school [$1.134 million] Fuentes is yet another early prep pick who is having success in rookie ball. The athletic outfielder is currently hitting .301/.351/.379 in 103 at-bats. He also has nine steals in 14 attempts. His strikeout rate is respectable at 16.5 K%, but he could stand to take a few more walks (6.4 BB%). 31. Chicago NL: Brett Jackson | Outfielder | California [$972,000] Considered a stretch for where he was selected in the draft, Jackson has hit well in three minor league stops. He is currently in low-A where he's hitting .328/.418/.586 with four homers and six steals in 58 at-bats. His walk rate (9.4 BB% at low-A) has dropped with each promotion, but so has his strikeout rate (20.7 K%). 32. Colorado: Tim Wheeler | Outfielder | Sacramento State [$900,000] Wheeler has spent his entire time in short-season ball since signing. The outfielder has a line of .270/.335/.362 with two homers and six steals (nine attempts) in 185 at-bats. He has a walk rate of 8.9 BB% and a strikeout rate of 20.0 K%. In the supplemental first round, 13 of the 17 selections have officially come to terms. High school catcher Steven Baron was the first player taken in the round. Also signing were Rex Brothers (Colorado), Matt Davidson (Arizona), Aaron Miller (Los Angeles NL), Josh Phegley (Chicago AL), Tyler Skaggs (Los Angeles AL), Chris Owings (Arizona), Garrett Richards (Los Angeles AL), Mike Belfiore (Arizona), Matt Bashore (Minnesota), Kyle Heckathorn (Milwaukee), Tyler Kehrer (Los Angeles AL), and Victor Black (Pittsburgh). 4th round: Pittsburgh, Zach Dodson | LHP | Texas HS [$600,000] Tick-tock, goes the clock. Tick-tock. The draft deadline will soon be here (Thank goodness).
The 2009 Draft: Sign On the Dotted Line
It's been just over a month since the dust settled on the Major League Baseball 2009 amateur draft. The event featured a no-brainer first-overall pick (Stephen Strasburg), a surprise Top 10 selection (Tony Sanchez at No. 4), and a few other interesting first-round choices (Randal Grichuk, LeVon Washington). Of the 32 picks taken in the first round of the draft, 12 players (37.5%) have signed. There are exactly 31 more days for teams and players to come to an agreement on terms or players will have to wait at least one more year to pursue their MLB aspirations in professional baseball (or at least three more years for prep players entering a college program). Last season, two players failed to come to terms: Aaron Crow (Ninth overall to Washington) and Gerrit Cole (28th overall to New York AL). Crow returned to the draft this season and went 12th overall to Kansas City. Of the 2008 players who signed, most appeared in at least a handful of games in the minors during their draft year. Players who failed to sign in time to make their pro debuts in '08 included Pedro Alvarez (Pittsburgh), Brian Matusz (Baltimore), Josh Fields (Seattle), and Brett Lawrie (Milwaukee). The debut for Ethan Martin (Los Angeles NL) was delayed due to injury. Some of the selections who got on to the playing field early have already made their Major League debuts, such as Gordon Beckham (Chicago AL), Ryan Perry (Detroit), and Daniel Schlereth (Arizona). Corner infielders Justin Smoak (Texas) and Brett Wallace (St. Louis) are both in triple-A knocking on the big-league door. Let's have a look at the 2009 first-round draftees who have signed so far: 4. Pittsburgh: Tony Sanchez | Catcher | Boston College 5. Baltimore: Matt Hobgood | RHP | California high school 10. Washington: Drew Storen | RHP | Stanford 17. Arizona: A.J. Pollock | Outfielder | Notre Dame 21. Houston: Jiovanni Mier | Shortstop | California high school 23. Chicago AL: Jared Mitchell | Outfielder | Louisiana State 24. Los Angeles AL: Randal Grichuk | Outfielder | Texas high school 25. Los Angeles AL: Mike Trout | Outfielder | New Jersey high school 26. Milwaukee: Eric Arnett | RHP | Indiana 28. Boston: Reymond Fuentes | Outfielder | Puerto Rico high school 31. Chicago NL: Brett Jackson | Outfielder | California 32. Colorado: Tim Wheeler | Outfielder | Sacramento State Overall, seven of the first 12 picks to have signed were college selections, while the other five came from the high school ranks. Seven of the signees are outfielders and three others are right-handed pitchers. In the supplemental first round, nine of the 17 selections have officially come to terms. High school catcher Steven Baron was the first player taken in the round and he recently signed with Seattle. Also signing were Rex Brothers (Colorado), Matt Davidson (Arizona), Aaron Miller (Los Angeles NL), Josh Phegley (Chicago AL), Mike Belfiore (Arizona), Matt Bashore (Minnesota), Tyler Kehrer (Los Angeles AL), and Victor Black (Pittsburgh). Both the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies did not have their first selections until the second round (due to free agent signings during the 2008-09 off-season). The Mets chose New York prep lefty Steve Matz 72nd overall, but have yet to come to terms. The Phillies took California high school outfielder Kelly Dugan 75th overall and have already inked the youngster. He is batting .281 in 16 rookie ball games. Overall, Toronto and Tampa Bay are the only two clubs that have yet to sign at least one of their Top 4 selections. Toronto had five selections in the first three rounds and has yet to come to terms with any of them and media reports suggest none of them are overly close to signing, which is highly unusual for Toronto. The Jays organization is normally one of the most aggressive when it comes to getting its top picks under contract and into the system. The highest drafted player to sign so far is seventh rounder Egan Smith, a left-handed pitcher who was taken out of a Nevada community college. Tampa Bay's highest signee is sixth round selection Devin Fuller, a right-handed pitcher out of an Arizona community college. Hopefully we'll see the signings start to pick up. Major League Baseball's pressure on teams to avoid announcing over-slot signings prior to the signing deadline takes a little fun out of the post-draft coverage - and it also keeps players from getting much-needed pro experience.
Familiar Names in the 2009 College World Series
It should be an entertaining College World Series this year when things get underway this weekend (June 13-23/24). Both Virginia and Southern Mississippi are making their first-time ever appearances in the series. The University of Texas, on the other hand, has played in the series 32 (going on 33) times and has five titles. Only two teams from the 2008 series - Louisiana State and North Carolina - return in 2009. In the first round you have: Cal State Fullerton vs Arkansas; Virginia vs Louisiana State; Arizona State vs North Carolina; and Southern Mississippi vs Texas. There are not quite as many big-time prospects in this year's College World Series. Last year, the series featured seven first-round draft picks, while this year there are just four, including CF/1B Dustin Ackley, who went second overall to the Seattle Mariners. In total, 43 players were drafted from the eight teams in the series, down from 58 in 2008. It's also interesting to note that a number of MLB teams drafted multiple players from the eight teams playing in the series, whether by design or coincidence: Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, and the Seattle Mariners.
First Round (8th overall) Leake had an impressive statistical season, but his pitchability far outweighs his stuff (which is still pretty good). As such, many people were surprised to see Cincinnati tab Leake with the 8th overall selection. He is the undisputed ace of the staff after winning 15 games and posting a 1.23 ERA... The Reds organization will just hope he does not get too overworked in the series. Other Names to Know: Jason Kipnis, OF, Cleveland (2nd round); Josh Spence, LHP, Los Angeles AL (3rd); Carlos Ramirez, C, Los Angeles AL (8th); Jared McDonald, SS, Chicago AL (21st); Raoul Torrez, 2B, Los Angeles AL (32nd).
Fifth Round (150th overall) Wood made headlines, but not for the right reasons. The senior closer was forced to work 13 innings in relief during a playoff game against Boston College that went into extra innings. On the plus side, he was dominating through the first 10 innings as he did not allow a hit during that span. He's probably not a closer in the Majors, though as he relies mainly on a low-90s fastball and good changeup. Other Names to Know: Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco (5th round)
Names to Know: Andrew Carraway, RHP, Seattle (12th round); Jeff Lorick, LHP, Atlanta (20th); Robert Poutier, RHP, San Diego (29th); Matt Packer, LHP, Cleveland (32nd); Tyler Cannon, SS, Pittsburgh (41st).
Names to Know: Josh Fellhauer, OF, Cincinnati (7th round); Khristopher Davis, OF, Milwaukee (7th); Jared Clark, 1B, Colorado (12th); Dustin Garneau, C, Colorado (19th); Michael Morrison, RHP, Detroit (29th); Kyle Witten, RHP, Seattle (41st); Joseph Scott, 2B, Colorado (42nd).
First Round (2nd overall) Obviously this Ackley kid is pretty good. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com even made an interesting argument for the gifted hitter to go first overall in this week's 2009 MLB Amateur Draft. He's certainly the key cog in North Carolina's offense. He led the team in average, home runs, RBI, walks, and was tied for first in stolen bases. Ackley also has the flexibility to play both first base and center field. First Round (15th overall) White has had an up-and-down junior season, but he's made big pitches when needed in the playoffs. The right-hander held opposing batters to a .230 average and he struck out 97 hitters in 90 innings of work. Other Names to Know: Kyle Seager, 2B, Seattle (3rd round); Mark Fleury, C, Cincinnati (4th); Adam Warren, RHP, New York AL (4th); Brian Moran, LHP, Seattle (7th); Colin Bates, RHP, Oakland (37th).
First Round (23rd overall) Mitchell has the ability to completely dominate a game if he can get on base. The athletic outfielder stole 33 bases in 65 college games this season. He also has some pop and he slugged nine home runs, good for third on the team. Although he strikes out a lot (58 times), he also took his fair share of walks (50), which means he doesn't have to be swinging well to make an impact. Other Names to Know: D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, Chicago NL (2nd round); Louis Coleman, RHP, Kansas City (5th); Ryan Schimpf, 2B, Toronto (5th); Blake Dean, OF, Minnesota (10th); Sean Ochinko, C, Toronto (11th).
Names to Know: Dallas Keuchel, LHP, Houston (7th round); Stephen Richards, LHP, Florida (8th); Scott Lyons, SS, Kansas City (15th); Ben Tschepikow, 2B, Kansas City (17th); Michael Bolsinger, RHP, Oakland (33rd); Ryan Cisterna, RHP, Los Angeles AL (34th).
Names to Know: Brian Dozier, SS, Minnesota (8th); Jimmy Ballinger, RHP, Chicago AL (11th); James Ewing, 2B, New York NL (12th); Ben Davis, OF, San Diego (24th).
A Giant Future
We've heard a lot recently about the excellent young pitching that the Giants organization is developing, and rightfully so. The team nabbed two excellent prep arms in the first round of the 2007 draft and both those players - LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Tim Alderson - were recently promoted to double-A Connecticut, just two small steps from the Majors. But that's not all. The Giants organization has a plethora of young, exciting talent, which should be sustainable over the next eight to 10 seasons if the club plays its cards right. It's actually hard to believe how many good prospects there are, given the reputation that the team (and its management) had for almost laughably favoring aging veterans. This isn't Dusty's team anymore. Or Barry's. With its electrifying mix of young hitting and pitching talent, it just might be the most dominating team in the National League for the next decade... beginning in 2010. Let's take a look at how dominating the San Francisco Giants could be even if it only fielded players originally signed/drafted by the club. The Ace: Tim Lincecum The No. 2: Madison Bumgarner The No. 3: Tim Alderson The No. 4: Matt Cain The Hopefuls: The Closer: Brian Wilson The Set-up Man: Henry Sosa The Others: The Catcher: Buster Posey The First Baseman: Angel Villalona The Second Baseman: Emmanuel Burriss The Third Baseman: Pablo Sandoval The Shortstop: Brandon Crawford Left-Fielder: Roger Kieschnick Center-Fielder: Fred Lewis Right-Fielder: Nate Schierholtz Jackson Williams (5/86) may never hit more than .220-.240 at the Major League level, but his defense is more than good enough to warrant his inclusion on the roster of the future. Infielder Kevin Frandsen (5/82) was actually putting together a pretty nice career with the Giants before he missed almost all of 2008 after blowing out his Achilles tendon. Nick Noonan (5/89) was a supplemental first round pick in 2007 and is in line as the Giants' second baseman of the future. He'll have to wait his turn, though, with Burriss already holding down the fort. Outfielder Eddy Martinez-Esteve (7/83) was considered a top prospect at one time, but injuries and defensive inefficiencies have all but extinguished that talk. He still possesses a solid bat, though, and could be an excellent pinch hitter.
The MLB Draft: College or Prep... The Debate Continues
For those of you who have been reading this site for a while, you probably know that one of my favorite things to write about is Major League Baseball's amateur draft. The 2009 draft is about a month away (June 9-10) so I though it might be a good time to take a look at one of the more popular debates around baseball, as well as the Internet. There is a belief amongst some people that it is "safer" to pick a college player in the first round of the MLB amateur draft than it is to select a prep player. This belief was spawned - or at least made popular - by the Moneyball era. But is there really any such thing as a "safe" draft pick in baseball, given the nature of the beast? Baseball, unlike most other pro sports, generally requires top-ranked amateurs to spend many years honing their skills in the minor leagues before they are ready to play amongst the best athletes in the world in their chosen sport. The skill-level gap between Major League Baseball and amateur baseball is much larger than with football or basketball. And we haven't even mentioned the risk of injuries. So let's take a look at the first rounds of the draft from 2001-2003 and see if the above belief has held true or not. We'll also break it down by position to see if college shortstops are more likely than, say, college catchers to meet expectations (We'll make the assumption that clubs are expecting a first-round pick to be at least a league-average regular at their position). There is a certain amount of subjectivity to deciding if a player has met expectations so you may disagree slightly with my opinions. As well, this type of study is difficult because players' stocks can fluctuate from year-to-year, but let's see how things play out. Players will be assigned either a (Pass) or (Fail) for meeting expectations. There are a couple (Undecided) as well. * I was going to include 2004 and 2005 as well, but there were just too many players that had futures that were still too much up in the air. College Hitters High School Hitters: College Success Rate: 3/7 (43%) College Pitchers High School Pitchers College Success Rate: 2/10 (20%) College Hitters: High School Hitters: College Success Rate: 2/5 (40%) College Pitchers: High School Pitchers: College Success Rate: 4/8 (50%) College Hitters: High School Hitters: College Success Rate: 5/10 (50%) College Pitchers: High School Pitchers: College Success Rate: 2/7 (29%) College Hitters Success Rate: 10/22 (45%) College Success Rates by: Notes: Wow. College right-handers were really not the best choice, although they were by far the most popular. Yikes. High School Success Rates by: Notes: Obviously high school second basemen are not a hot commodity, which is not overly surprising, considering a large number of MLB keystone players probably started out as shortstops in the minors. The prep first basemen that were chosen have performed pretty well. So, is there any such thing as a safe pick? Not really. But interestingly enough, prep hitters were the more successful choice between 2001 and 2003, followed by... prep pitchers. Teams that chose prep prospects, in general, had a 53% success rate. Teams that chose a college prospect had a success rate of just 39%. Collectively, the three years studied is a pretty small sample size in the grand scheme of things, so we cannot really read too much into the numbers above, but what it does is provide some food for thought. It could also serve as a great starting point (or hypothesis) for a much larger study on the successes and failures of the Major League Baseball amateur draft.
Around the Minors: Opening Day
The young stars of tomorrow are back. A few days after the Major League Baseball season got underway, the Minor League Baseball season was back in full swing as each team's top prospects took to the field. Let's have a look at how some of the top prospects began their seasons. Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Indians Florida Marlins Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals What prospects are you most excited about this season?
The Rule 5 Draft: Day of Reckoning
Twenty-one players were chosen this past off-season as part of the annual Rule 5 draft. Of those selected, 16 were pitchers which obviously speaks to need for pitching depth at the Major League level. Unlike past years when "big" name players were chosen, like Dan Uggla and Josh Hamilton, no name stood out in the 2008 draft. That shows in the fact that only a few players are going to stick with the teams that chose to draft them this past December. 1. Terrell Young RHP | Washington from Cincinnati No official decision has been announced with Young, but he's struggled with his command this spring with nine walks in as many innings. He has also allowed nine hits and six earned runs. The 23-year-old hurler is a former 10th-round selection out of high school by the Reds organization. He could stick with Washington because, well, look at the other options... 2. Reegie Corona INF | Seattle from New York (AL) It's hard to know what Seattle is thinking sometimes. But with Ronny Cedeno and Chris Burke around, there probably isn't room for Corona. The young infielder started the spring off slowly, but has picked things up and is now hitting a respectable .281/.311/.386 in 57 at-bats. 3. Everth Cabrera SS | San Diego from Colorado What a difference an organization makes. Cabrera, with a line of .262/.297/.344 with seven stolen bases in 61 at-bats will make the Padres' 25-man roster as the back-up infielder. The saddest thing is that starting shortstop Luis Rodriguez really isn't much better. 4. Donald Veal LHP | Pittsburgh from Chicago (NL) Perhaps the biggest name in the draft, Veal is still under consideration to make the Pirates, although no decision has been made officially. The big left-hander has crazy numbers this spring after allowing just four hits in 13 innings... but he's also walked 13 batters. Sadly, those kind of numbers put him about fourth on the bullpen depth chart. It's going to be another long season in Pittsburgh. 5. Lou Palmisano C | Baltimore (to Houston) from Milwaukee Palmisano was a bit of a strange pick given that he missed most of the 2008 season with injuries, and he did not have a very good spring. His fate was sealed when the Astros nabbed free agent Ivan Rodriguez at the last minute. Offered back to Milwaukee, his originally organization declined and he will remain in the Houston organization - but in the minors. 6. Luis Perdomo RHP | San Francisco from St. Louis Perdomo threw up a stinker of a performance recently, but he still appears to have won a spot in the Giants' bullpen after impressing the manager with his 94 mph fastball and slider combination. His ERA recently jumped from the 4s to the 6s. 7. David Patton RHP | Cincinnati (to Chicago NL) from Colorado The Cubs club is going to field a veteran-heavy team this year but Patton has an opportunity to head north with the club after a solid spring. He has allowed 10 hits and two walks in 12.1 innings. He has also struck out 15 batters without allowing a homer. 8. Kyle Bloom LHP | Detroit from Pittsburgh Detroit barely has any prospects... or pitching for that matter... but Bloom still wasn't good enough to make the club. He had an 8.44 ERA in five games. 9. Jose Lugo LHP | Kansas City (to Seattle) from Minnesota Lugo gave it a shot by posting a 2.45 ERA in 11 games, but the ERA was misleading. He allowed just three hits in 7.1 innings but struck out just one batter and did not overpower anyone. The Mariners don't have many quality left-handed bullpen options, so his return to the Twins speaks volumes. 10. Benjamin Copeland CF | Oakland from San Francisco Copeland was drafted by the wrong organization. Oakland has a ton of outfield depth, although the outfielder has yet to be sent back to San Francisco. He injured his shoulder earlier this month so the A's could always stash him on the DL for awhile and see how things play out. He's hit just .182 in 22 spring at-bats. 11. James Skelton C | Arizona from Detroit As mentioned earlier, the Tigers organization is hurting for prospects so it was surprising when the club left this young catcher unprotected for the draft. Arizona is not in desperate need for catching with Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero, but Skelton is athletic enough to play other positions on the field, which could help him make the club in April. He's hit just .150 in 40 at-bats after spending 2008 in High-A and Double-A. Update: Skelton did not make the team, but the Diamondbacks worked out a deal today to keep the catcher's rights. Arizona sent pitcher Brooks Brown, a 2006 supplemental first round draft pick, to the Tigers. 12. Zachary Kroenke LHP | Florida from New York (AL) Another pick out of the Yankees organization, Kroenke was sent back to his original club last week after barely registering a blip in camp with the Marlins. He's a former fifth-round pick out of the University of Nebraska. 13. Gilbert De La Vara LHP | Houston from Kansas City De La Vara was recently returned to the Royals after allowing 14 hits and three walks in 9.2 innings for the Astros. The 24 year old has appeared in just 21 games above A-ball. 14. Jason Jones RHP | Minnesota from New York (AL) The third pick out of the Yankees system, Jones failed to make the Twins but his rights were retained after the club sent pitching prospect Charles Nolte to New York. Jones had a 2.70 ERA but allowed 11 hits and three walks in 10 innings, so he was hardly dominant. If the Twins have one thing, it's pitching depth... so Jones may have been better off heading back to the Yankees. 15. Darren O'Day RHP | New York (NL) from Los Angeles (AL) O'Day appears to have made the Mets. The right-hander has struck out just five batters in 13 innings, to go along with 12 hits allowed and three walks. He's lucky that the Mets' pen is not overly deep. 16. Eduardo Morlan RHP | Milwaukee from Tampa Bay Morlan has always shown good stuff, but he has also always stumbled when trying to take that next step. He failed to close the deal as a member of the Brewers organization and was sent back to the Rays. Morlan was originally signed by the Twins and sent to Tampa Bay in the Delmon Young/Matt Garza deal. 17. Robert Mosebach RHP | Philadelphia from Los Angeles (AL) Mosebach failed to make the reigning World Champions after allowing 15 hits and two walks in 7.2 innings of work. 18. Miguel Gonzalez RHP | Boston from Los Angeles (AL) Gonzalez has battled elbow problems this spring so the Red Sox could stash him on the DL, if the organization wants to waste a roster spot on the 24-year-old reliever. 19. Derek Rodriguez RHP | Tampa Bay from Chicago (AL) A 7.71 ERA with 12 hits and three walks allowed in 7.0 innings is not going to endear you to a new organization. Not surprisingly, Rodriguez was sent back to his old club. 20. Ivan Nova RHP | San Diego from New York (AL) Nova never wowed anyone with his stuff, but he always managed to get results... until spring training 2009, that is. The right-hander posted an 8.31 ERA and allowed 13 hits and four walks in 8.2 innings of work. He struck out three batters and allowed as many home runs. He was sent back to New York. 21. Rocky Cherry RHP | New York (NL) from Baltimore O'Day was able to make the Mets, but Cherry was not as lucky and he actually got released because he would have become a free agent anyway. He signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox. Cherry was the most experienced pitcher in the draft at the age of 29 and with 40 MLB games under his belt. So there you have it. A lackluster Rule 5 draft ends up with about seven or eight players (33-38%) beginning the 2009 season with the club that acquired them in the Rule 5 draft.
The 2008 Rule 5 Draft: The Hitters
It is almost here. The 2008 Rule 5 Draft is 10 days away. Last week, we took a look at some of the pitchers that could be scooped up during the draft, as organizations look for cheap, talented options that will hopefully stick on the big league roster for the entire 2009 season. As always, if you need a refresher on the rules and history of the Rule 5 Draft, click here. James Skelton | Detroit One of the more quizzical omissions from the 40-man rosters, James Skelton creates flashes of Jesus Flores, whom the Washington Nationals stole from the New York Mets with the sixth overall pick of the 2006 Rule 5 Draft. Flores is now producing just as well for the Nationals as the Mets' big league catchers, and at a much lower cost. The Tigers organization is seriously lacking in prospects and the 40-man roster had room for Skelton. He was originally selected by the Tigers in the 14th round of the 2004 draft out of a California high school. Skelton has hit more than .300 in each of the past three seasons - a rarity for catchers. This past season, he hit .307/.467/.406 in 212 High-A at-bats and moved up to Double-A and posted a line of .294/.423/.388 in 85 at-bats. There are concerns about Skelton's defence. His is just 5'11'' and 165 lbs - small for a catcher. His arm also lacks strength, but he threw out 43% of base stealers in 2007, and 19 of 54 (35%) at High-A in 2008, followed by nine of 19 (47%) at Double-A. It will be shocking if no one takes a flyer on the left-handed hitting catcher with an excellent eye at the plate and the ability to hit for a high average. The list of clubs that could use catching depth include Toronto, San Diego, Cincinnati, Houston, Chicago (NL), Washington, Florida, Balitmore, Chicago AL, Tampa Bay and Boston. Francisco Hernandez | Chicago (AL) The list of available catchers is not overly deep and Francisco Hernandez sticks out as an interesting option. His bat regressed in 2008 - .245/.333/.382 with a .137 ISO in 241 at-bats - but he was the 21st best prospect in the organization prior to 2008, according to Baseball America. His rates were respectable at 11.7 BB% and 13.7 K%. Hernandez has an excellent arm and threw out 37 of 86 (43%) base stealers in 2008 and is at least average in all other defensive facets. If selected, he won't hit much but he should be at least average defensively as a back-up catcher. Jordan Brown | Cleveland Jordan Brown has something a lot of Rule 5 prospects don't: A MLB-ready bat (and he swings from the left side too). The first baseman, though, does not have much power. Brown would be an excellent option for a National League team looking for a pinch hitter. In 2008 at Triple-A, he hit .281/.336/.417 with an ISO of .136 in 420 at-bats. The former fourth-round draft pick is a career .300 hitter and traditionally walks almost as much as he strikes out, although his rates dipped in 2008 to 7.7 BB% and 16.0 K%. He would be a cheaper and possibly more effective option for a club looking at a free agent like Mark Sweeney, who has made a career out of coming off the bench. Jesus Guzman | San Francisco Jesus Guzman was originally signed by the Seattle Mariners and then signed as a minor league free agent prior to the 2007 season by the Oakland Athletics. He became a free agent once again after the 2008 season and recently signed with the San Francisco Giants but was not placed on the 40-man roster, which makes him eligible for the draft. A number of teams expressed interest in him as a minor league free agent (including the A's) so one of those clubs that missed out in the bidding process could nab him on Dec. 11. This past season, Guzman hit .364/.420/.560 with a .196 ISO in Double-A. He was then promoted to Triple-A but struggled a bit and hit just .237/.286/.373 in 59 at-bats. The switch hitter also slugged 25 home runs and drove in 102 runs for Seattle's High-A club in 2007. Guzman has the ability to play third base, second base and the corner outfield, which could make him a valuable utility player for a Major League club. Erik Lis | Minnesota Traditionally, first basemen are not overly popular in the Rule 5 draft, but Erik Lis might be of interest to a Major League club. He hit .277/.322/.462 with a .185 ISO in 405 Double-A at-bats in 2008. The former ninth round draft pick has seen his power output improve each season and he has above-average bat speed. Lis is not overly athletic and is a one-dimensional player with all his value wrapped up in his left-handed bat. He can play both first base and left field, which adds to his attractiveness as a pinch hitter and left fielder. Adam Loewen | Toronto A club in search of the next Rick Ankiel or Brian Bogusevic may look to former Orioles hurler Adam Loewen, who recently signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was a talented two-way player in high school and injuries ruined his pitching career. A number of teams (including Seattle) were interested in signing Loewen as a free agent hitter, but Toronto won out as the left-handed hitter is a native Canadian. In his first taste of professional hitting, Loewen hit .207/.368/.207 in 29 at-bats during the Hawaii Winter Baseball league this fall. He is definitely raw as a hitter but has a ton of power from the left side. Daniel Mayora | Colorado Daniel Mayora's exclusion from the Rockies 40-man roster is more a testament to the organization's enviable middle infield depth than a comment on the infielder's ability or promise. As it was, the Rockies added three middle infielders to the roster this fall in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft: Chris Nelson, Eric Young Jr., and Hector Gomez, joining four other middle infielders already on the roster. Mayora lacks the athleticism of some of the other prospects but he hit .288/.347/.422 with an ISO of .134 in 486 High-A at-bats. He stolen just eight bases in 2008, but nabbed 26 the previous season. Mayora is solid defensively at both second base and shortstop. Corey Wimberly | Colorado Corey Wimberly, like Mayora above, was caught in the Big Roster Crunch of 2008. He has done nothing but hit and run in professional baseball after being selected in the sixth round of the 2005 draft. He began his pro career by hitting .381 and compiling 107 hits in 67 games. In 2008, the speedster hit .291/.359/.345 with 59 stolen bases in 388 Double-A at-bats. He has no power (.054 ISO in 2008) but he can steal a base in his sleep and can play all over the diamond. Wimberly should definitely garner interest in the draft, although it would help if he walked a little more often (9.6 BB% in 2008). Will Rhymes | Detroit Like Skelton, Will Rhymes' 40-man roster omission is a little surprising. At Double-A, he hit .306/.361/.391 in 516 at-bats. He has limited power (.085 ISO) but he has the potential to steal 15-20 bases. Rhymes also has respectable rates (although he could stand to walk a bit more) and does not strike out much: 7.9 BB% and 12.8 K%. He is average defensively at second base and his value is hurt by his lack of versatility. He held his own in the Arizona Fall League by hitting .287/.322/.324 in 108 at-bats, but managed just two extra base hits. Jamie Romak | Pittsburgh The Rule 5 Draft's outfield depth is lacking, but Jamie Romak is an interesting name. The former Braves prospect was traded to Pittsburgh during the 2007 Adam LaRoche deal and was rated by Baseball America as the Pirates' seventh best prospect entering into 2008. He offers massive power potential but a low batting average. He is still very raw, but the Canadian has intriguing upside. In 2008, he hit .279/.351/.552 with 25 doubles and 18 homers (.272 ISO) in 290 High-A at-bats. Upon a promotion to Double-A, he hit .208/.307/.433 (.225 ISO) in 120 at-bats. He is a huge risk, but if he rebounds in 2009 a club will have a tough timing prying him from Pittsburgh. That said, he struggles with off-speed stuff and could easily become a Quad-A slugger. Mitch Einertson, Eli Iorg and Jordan Parraz | Houston The remainder of the outfield depth for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft is sponsored by the Houston Astros. Mitch Einertson, a former fifth round selection out of high school, caught the baseball world's attention when he made his pro debut and slammed 24 home runs in 63 games. But that was Rookie Ball and also 2004. Since then, Einertson has struggled to live up to those lofty numbers, especially considering he was never looked at as a power hitter while in high school. This past season he hit .262/.309/.427 in 382 Double-A at-bats. He is more of an interesting name, rather than a true threat to be nabbed in the draft. Eli Iorg comes from a talented baseball family and is loaded with raw athletic ability but has had troubles translating his skills to the baseball diamond. At Double-A in 2008, he hit .268/.303/.407 with an ISO of .139 in 459 at-bats. He also stole 21 bases after nabbing 42 in 2006. Iorg walked just 4.4% of the time in 2008. His numbers were down a bit in 2008 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery in late 2007. Jordan Parraz is not quite as athletic as Iorg, but he has a better chance of hitting for average. He has moved slowly through the system and was old for High-A but he hit .289/.382/.419 with 21 stolen bases in 425 at-bats. Parraz also has a cannon for an arm and can hit the mid 90s off the mound.
The 2008 Rule 5 Draft: Previewing the Pitchers
There are only 15 more shopping days left. Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft will occur on at the end of the Winter Meetings on Dec. 11. The draft, which is explained here, has become extremely popular in the eyes of online fans, but participation amongst teams has been up and down in recent years. Players selected: The 2008 Rule 5 draft could be popular. The economic woes and uncertainty are impacting professional sports, just like the rest of the world. The draft is an opportunity for clubs to find cheap - and potentially talented - roster options. A club can pick up a 24th or 25th man pretty cheaply through this process. As you can see above, the draft peaked in 2002 and dropped off sharply in 2004 - which is likely because teams started altering the way they protected prospects after almost 50 players were selected between 2002 and 2003. It is much harder to find a Johan Santana these days as all promising young pitchers - even those in Short Season ball or A-ball - are being protected on 40-man rosters. The 2008 draft does not appear to have a raw, talented future star available, but then again, who knew Santana's name in 1999... aside from Minnesota and Houston? What this draft does have, though, is a ton of potential back-up infielders and left-handed relievers... as well as a few other interesting names. Let's take a look at some of the top options on the mound. Next week we'll look at some intriguing hitters. Eduardo Morlan | Tampa Bay Eduardo Morlan was traded to Tampa Bay from Minnesota last winter in the Matt Garza-Delmon Young swap. He can dial his fastball up into the mid-90s and he has a high-80s slider that acts as his strikeout pitch. His numbers were down in 2008 after switching organizations but you don't get the chance to nab a player with this skill set after a fabulous season. He still allowed just 44 hits in 47 innings with rates of 2.87 BB/9 and 8.62 K/9. Chris Mason | Tampa Bay Chris Mason has always been a Top-10 prospect, but he was also considered a step below the top two pitching prospects in the system: Jacob McGee and Wade Davis. Mason's horrendous 2008 season certainly did not help his cause. After going 15-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 2007 at Double-A, Mason regressed at Triple-A with a 6.21 ERA and 144 hits allowed in 108.2 innings. A former second-round amateur draft pick, he has the talent to succeed in the Majors and many scouts have felt he has always been better suited to pitching out of the bullpen. His slider is excellent, the change-up is very good, but the fastball is just OK at 87-91 mph. Alan Horne | New York (AL) Alan Horne spent the majority of the season battling a bicep strain and was not at his best when he made eight starts at the Triple-A level. He allowed 35 hits in 32 innings of work and posted rates of 6.19 BB/9 and 6.75 K/9. Teams that are comfortable with his medical report could grab him with the hopes of seeing a healthy Horne show up at spring training. In 2007 at Double-A, he struck out 165 batters in 153.1 innings. He has a low-to-mid-90s fastball, slider, curveball and change-up. J. Brent Cox | New York (AL) The Yankees are putting a lot of faith in the hopes that teams will be scared away from intriguing prospects by medical reports. J. Brent Cox was a top college reliever when he was selected in the second round of the 2005 draft. He was on the cusp of a Major League call-up after a solid 2006 season at Double-A but those hopes were derailed by Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2008 and allowed 30 hits in 36 Triple-A innings. His rates were poor at 4.25 BB/9 and 4.00 K/9 but command and control are the last things to return after the surgery. Based on his past performances, Cox is worth a look. Erik Cordier | Atlanta Of the players listed in this article, Erik Cordier is certainly the biggest reach, but he also has the most potential - if his stuff fully returns after Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season. Obtained from Kansas City for disappointing shortstop Tony Pena Jr. prior to the 2007 season, Cordier allowed 51 hits in 40 A-ball innings in 2008. He posted rates of 4.73 BB/9 and 6.98 K/9. Prior to the injury, the right-hander was touching 98 mph and sitting in the mid-90s. He was topping out in the low-90s in 2008, and needs to regain the feel for his plus change-up and average curveball. Chris Nicoll | Kansas City Chris Nicoll was originally selected by the Royals in the third round of the 2005 draft as a starter. After injury woes in 2007, he was converted to a reliever and thrived. Between the two minor league levels, Nicoll allowed 77 hits in 87 innings and struck out 104 batters. At Double-A, he posted rates of 1.65 BB/9 and 11.34 K/9. With an organization badly in need of pitching depth, it is a little surprising that Nicoll - even with just an average fastball and slider - was left unprotected. Ryan Mullins | Minnesota A third-round selection out of Vanderbilt University in 2005, Ryan Mullins is a 6'6'' lefty with a fringe fastball and a big-league curveball, which are just the right ingredients for a 2009 MLB LOOGY. His 2008 numbers at Double-A were nothing to write home about: 169 hits allowed in 148.1 innings, 3.58 BB/9, 6.01 K/9, but check out the splits: Left-Handed Batters: .204 AVG, 0.88 WHIP, 1.45 BB/9, 12.8 LD% Donald Veal | Chicago (NL) A former top prospect, Donnie Veal has stagnated at Double-A. In two seasons at that level, he has allowed 276 hits in 275.2 innings of work. His rates in 2008 were not so good at 5.02 BB/9 and 7.62 K/9. Obviously, his control is lacking but he is a lefty that can consistently throw in the low 90s and he has two solid secondary pitchers: a curveball and change-up. He faced 142 left-handed batters in 2008 and did not allow a home run. His splits suggest he could also have some success as a LOOGY: Left-handed batters hit .221, while right-handed batters hit .290. Yes, Chuck Lofgren's numbers, which included a 5.99 ERA and 93 hits allowed in 85.2 innings, were ugly in 2008. He carried those struggles over into the Arizona Fall League where he posted a 32.14 ERA in 10 games. But he is just 22 years old and two years removed from a breakout season in A-ball that saw him added to the Indians' top prospects list. A club that thinks it could fix his mechanical and/or mental woes could take a flyer on him. Brad Kilby | Oakland Brad Kilby is not a former top prospect like the other southpaws listed above, but he has quietly put up some solid career numbers as a former 29th round draft pick. Career-wise, he has compiled a 2.64 ERA, allowed 178 hits in 232.1 innings and posted rates of 3.41 BB/9 and 10.16 K/9. In 2008 at Triple-A, Kilby allowed 51 hits in 70 innings with rates of 3.34 BB/9 and 8.49 K/9. On the downside, his stuff is a little short and he is a flyball pitcher (27.2 GB%). Pedro Viola | Cincinnati Signed as a pitcher by the Reds at the age of 22 in 2005, Pedro Viola rocketed through the minors in his North American debut in 2007 and reached Double-A. He spent the entire 2008 season at that level while struggling with his command and control. Viola can hit the mid-90s, a rarity for southpaws, and also has a slider and change-up. After dominating left-handed batters in 2007, he struggled against them in 2008 and allowed a .292 batting average. Robert Rohrbaugh | Seattle Kei Igawa | New York (AL) The Yankees paid $26 million to negotiate for Kei Igawa's rights prior to the 2007 season and he has been a disappointment, to say the least. Igawa has thrived at the Triple-A level but he has struggled to succeed in the Majors and under the intense scrutiny that comes with pitching in New York. At $4 million a year through 2010, he might be a worthwhile gamble for a National League club like the Padres. In 2008 at Triple-A, he allowed 141 hits in 156.1 innings, with rates of 2.59 BB/9 and 6.74 K/9. Be sure to check back next week for a look at some of the position players that could be on the move during the MLB Rule 5 draft on Dec. 11.
How D'Ya Like Me Now?
The 2007 draft had an interesting mix of college and prep players selected in the first round. The first-overall selection of David Price, who had a significant impact in the Rays' 2008 late-season success, was a no-brainer at the time and still looks like the overwhelming correct choice. That pick was followed up with a few prep bats, which included Mike Moustakas (Royals) and Josh Vitters (Cubs). All the draftees now have a full season of experience under their collective belts so it is a perfect time to look back and see how the prospects are progressing. As mentioned above, Price had an excellent Major League debut and was even better in the playoffs. He has likely secured himself a spot in the Tampa Bay starting rotation in 2009 and is an early Rookie of the Year candidate. He allowed nine hits and four walks in 14 regular season innings in 2008. Moustakas was taken second overall and had a solid season in A-ball, where he hit .272/.330/.468 with 22 home runs in a league where long balls are hard to come by. Third overall pick Vitters has been slower to develop and battled some injuries but he still hit .328/.360/.498, although he scuffled in a brief A-ball trial. Fifth overall pick Matt Wieters (Orioles) has played like a first-overall talent with a line at Double-A of .365/.463/.625 and an ISO of 260. He could probably hold his own at the Major League level now, but should get a little bit of Triple-A seasoning in 2009. The universe always has to find a balance and as good as Wieters has been, fourth overall pick Daniel Moskos (Pirates) has been as equally bad. The lefty had a 5.95 ERA in High-A ball and allowed 124 hits in 110.1 innings. His rates were disappointing at 3.51 BB/9 and 6.36 K/9. The Giants win the award for the best pick of the next 10 players, which was high school pitcher Madison Bumgarner. The left-hander spent the year in A-ball and had a 1.46 ERA with 111 hits allowed in 141.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9. Sixth and seventh overall picks Ross Detwiler (Nationals) and Matt LaPorta (Brewers) had impressive debuts but regressed in 2008. Casey Weathers (Rockies) will miss all of 2009 after having Tommy John surgery. Fourteenth overall pick Jason Heyward (Braves) has massive potential but spent the season in A-ball where he hit .323/.390/.483 with an ISO of .160 as a 6'4'', 220 lbs 18-year-old. J.P. Arencibia (Jays) was called an overdraft by some, but he had a solid pro debut and reached Double-A, where he hit .282/.301/.496. He significantly improved his defence and slugged 27 homers and drove in 105 runs between two levels. Tim Alderson (Giants) was another excellent selection by the Giants and the high school pick spent the entire year pitching in High-A ball where he allowed 125 hits in 145.1 innings and posted rates of 2.11 BB/9 and 7.68 K/9. He'll be in Double-A in 2009 at the age of 20. The club had less success with the second last pick in the round, Wendell Fairley, who struggled to hit for average (.258) at Rookie Ball in 2008 at the age of 20. Pitcher Rick Porcello (Tigers) also spent his first season in High-A ball with success. He allowed 116 hits in 125 innings and posted rates of 2.38 BB/9 and 5.18 K/9. Ben Revere (Twins) was a surprise first-round selection but he flirted with .400 for the first half of the season in A-ball and showed talent in every aspect of the game (except power). Joe Savery (Phillies), who battled injuries in college, had a disappointing season in High-A ball after allowing 171 hits in 150 innings. In essence, with 34 picks, the supplemental round was the second round of the draft. The best selections of the round, to this point, included Nick Noonan (Giants), Todd Frazier (Reds), Julio Borbon (Rangers), Brett Cecil (Jays), Sean Doolittle (A's), Tommy Hunter (Rangers), and Nick Hagadone (Red Sox), who missed most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Borbon split the year between High-A and Double-A and hit .337/.372/.459 at his second stop. Overall, he stole 53 bases but needs to show more patience at the plate. Hunter, 22, blew through three minor league levels and made three big league starts (with a 16.36 ERA). Noonan showed advanced skills for a prep pick but spent the year in A-ball where he hit .279/.310/.415. In his brief career, Frazier has hit for power, average and has also shown good patience at the plate. Cecil began 2008 on the disabled list and came back with a strict pitch count, but he made it to Triple-A in his first full season. Overall, the southpaw allowed 100 hits in 118.2 innings. The most disappointing picks of the round included Jackson Williams (Giants), Nathan Vineyard (Mets), Charlie Culberson (Giants), Matt Mangini (Mariners), and Trystan Magnuson (Jays). The Nationals scored with Jordan Zimmermann, who was the third pick of the second round. He reached Double-A where he allowed 89 hits in 106.2 innings. He could be in the big league rotation by the end of 2009. Prep pick Michael Stanton (Marlins) showed massive power in 2008 by slamming 39 home runs in 468 A-ball at-bats. He took a respectable number of walks but needs to trim the strikeouts (32.7 K%). Freddie Freeman (Braves) was another impressive young slugger who hit .316/.374/.521 with an ISO of .206 in 491 A-ball at-bats. Pitcher Jess Todd (Cardinals) was a solid college reliever who was thrown into the starting rotation in pro ball and has more than held his own. He spent the majority of the season in Double-A but made four Triple-A starts. Catcher Austin Romine (Yankees) split time behind the plate in A-ball with the highly-touted Jesus Montero. Romine showed solid defensive skills and hit .300/.340/.437 in 407 at-bats. Selections Josh Fields (Braves) and Hunter Morris (Red Sox) failed to come to terms. Morris headed off to Auburn University, while Fields returned to college for his senior year and was drafted by Seattle in the first round. He has failed to come terms yet again... The first selection in the second round Will Kline (Rays) missed the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Rays organization may have lost its second round pick to injury, but the club scored with its first round pick (Price) and may have also grabbed a winner in the third round with prep pitcher Nick Barnese. In short season ball in 2008, he allowed 52 hits in 66 innings with rates of 3.28 BB/9 and 11.45 K/9. The 19-year-old should begin 2009 in full-season A-ball. The second pick of the round, Danny Duffy (Royals), had an excellent year in A-ball by allowing 56 hits in 81.2 innings and posting rates of 2.76 BB/9 and 11.24 K/9. He has impressive breaking pitches and can touch 95 mph with his fastball. Puerto Rican picks Reynaldo Navarro (Diamondbacks), Neftali Soto (Reds), and Angel Morales (Twins) have massive potentials. Soto had the best statistical season in 2008 with a line of .326/.347/.500 in 218 A-ball at-bats. Austin Gallagher was promoted aggressively to High-A ball as a 19-year-old third baseman but he held his own and hit .293/.354/.456 with a .163 ISO in 307 at-bats. Brandon Hicks (Braves) has shown surprising power at the shortstop position but may not hit for average at the Major League level. Alan Farina (Jays) has a plus fastball as a reliever but has had trouble staying healthy. Starter John Ely (White Sox) is now one of the system's best prospects after a solid season in High-A ball where he posted rates of 2.85 BB/9 and 8.30 K/9 in 145.1 innings. The teams with the largest number of early picks in 2007 - which include the Giants (6 picks), Rangers, Padres (9) and Jays (8) - definitely made the most of their selections in the first three rounds. The Giants had three first round picks (which included Bumgarner and Alderson) and three supplemental first round picks but lost the second and third round selections due to free agency compensation. The first two selections, though, should impact San Francisco for years to come. For Texas, the club's first selection, Blake Beavan has been a bit of a disappointment, but Borbon and Hunter have been awesome. Prep pitcher Michael Main (selected 24th overall) also has massive potential. Neil Ramirez (44th overall) is another intriguing former prep pitcher. For the Jays organization, which delved into drafting prep players for the first time in years, the young players who were selected held their own but did not take a huge step forward in 2008. First round pick Kevin Ahrens, supplemental pick Justin Jackson and second round selections John Tolisano and Eric Eiland all struggled during the second halves of their first full seasons in pro ball. The Padres lost first round pick Nick Schmidt to Tommy John surgery, but catcher Mitch Canham has performed well, as has outfielder Kellen Kulbacki and second round pick Eric Sogard. The biggest names to come out of the 2007 draft definitely include David Price, Matt Wieters, and Madison Bumgarner. There are also a ton of names that could be added to the list by the middle of the 2009 season.
The Rookies of 2008... and Those Who Came Before Them
The 2008 Rookie of the Year awards were handed out recently and the winners came as no surprise. Evan Longoria, of the Tampa Bay Rays, was the unanimous choice in the American League, while Geovany Soto, of the Chicago Cubs, received all but one first-place vote in the National League. In reality, there was not a ton of competition for the awards - both winners stood out head-and-shoulders above the rest of the candidates. That said, it was an interesting group that made up the top five vote-getters in each league. The lists include a Cuban import, a Japanese import, a player who was not on many top prospect lists when the season began, a few recently-traded pitchers, and a highly-touted prospect who had a modest debut. The American League: The National League Let's take a closer look at each player's season. Evan Longoria produced a solid line of .272/.343/.531 and displayed massive power with a .259 ISO. He slugged 27 homers and 31 doubles in 448 at-bats. Bill James projects Longoria to hit 37 homers in 2009, which would be a very impressive number in this post-steroids age. The young third baseman still needs to work on making contact a little more often after striking out 127 times in 2008 (27.2 K%). Alexei Ramirez had a very solid rookie season, but his numbers suggest that he may not have prolonged success unless he revamps his approach. His walk rate was just 3.6 BB%. Ramirez also swung at pitches outside the strike zone almost 50 percent more often (42.71%) than the league norm. On the plus side, he makes contact at a league-average rate, both on pitches inside and outside the strike zone. Overall, he batted .290/.317/.475 with 21 home runs in 280 at-bats for Chicago in 2008. The bar was set very high for Jacoby Ellsbury after he hit .353 in 116 regular season at-bats in 2007, and followed that up by hitting .360 in the playoffs. His 2008 season was solid, but he did not catapult into stardom as many in Boston had hoped. Ellsbury hit .280/.336/.394 with just 38 extra base hits in 554 at-bats. That said, the speedy outfielder swiped 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. To take full advantage of that speed in 2009, Ellsbury should focus on improving his 6.9 BB%. Mike Aviles deserves a lot of credit for making it onto this list. He played just 102 games at the Major League level in 2008, after spending his first 50 games in Triple-A. Aviles made up for lost time, though, and hit .325/.354/.480 with an ISO of .155 in 419 at-bats. Bill James projects Aviles' triple-slash numbers to take a .030-.040 point hit in each category for 2009. Like many young players, Aviles needs to be more patient (4.1 BB%). The Tigers organization can give itself a collective kick for tossing away Jair Jurrjens in the Edgar Renteria trade, but it made up for the gaff by stealing Armando Galarraga away from the Rangers - a club that also traded away another promising young pitcher prior to the 2008 season in Edinson Volquez. Galarraga likely will not rise above the fourth or fifth slot in a team's rotation, but he's solid. In 2008, he allowed 152 hits in 178.2 innings of work and posted rates of 3.07 BB/9 and 6.35 K/9.
Not only did Geovany Soto have an excellent offensive season for a catcher, but he also helped guide a pitching rotation to a playoff berth in his rookie season. Soto hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 home runs and an ISO of .219 in 494 at-bats. The Cubs may want to give the portly catcher a few more days off in 2009, if they want him to remain healthy and productive for a prolonged period of time. Canadian Joey Votto displayed the rare ability to hit for both average and power in 2008 with a line of .297/.368/.506 and an ISO of .209. Bill James was also impressed and his numbers project a significant increase in each category for Votto in 2009. The left-handed batter also took a healthy number of walks (10.1 BB%) and kept the strikeouts under control (19.4 K%). Jair Jurrjens had a promising debut season in the National League. He was hittable by allowing 188 hits in 188.1 innings, but he battled and posted respectable rates: 3.35 BB% and 6.64 K%. Of the batted balls Jurrjens allowed, 51.5 were hit on the ground. To improve upon his 2008 success in 2009, the right-hander may want to rely more on his slider, which he went to just 11.8 percent of the time. Jay Bruce was considered by many to be the top prospect in baseball coming into the 2008 season. He began the year in Triple-A but surfaced in the Majors before long and hit .254/.314/.453 in 413 at-bats. Bruce's season also included an ISO of .199 and rates of 7.4 BB% and 26.6 K%. Bruce will be only 22 years old in 2009 so he has lots of time to improve and reach the lofty expectations that have been heaped upon him. Kosuke Fukudome exploded onto the Major League Baseball scene in April of 2008, only to fizzle in the second half of the year. Overall, the Japanese veteran hit .257/.359/.379 with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases. His .122 ISO was well below average for a corner outfielder but he posted solid rates at 13.9 BB% and 20.8 K%. Fukudome needs a big 2009 season to help justify his contract - and playing time. 2007: Dustin Pedroia, Boston | Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Both Dustin Pedroia and Ryan Braun followed up their 2007 rookie campaigns by avoiding the dreaded sophomore jinx and built upon their impressive numbers. Both players were highly regarded when they were drafted, but they are both exceeding those expectations at the Major League level. The runners up to the award were Delmon Young and Troy Tulowitzki. 2006: Justin Verlander, Detroit | Hanley Ramirez, Florida Justin Verlander took a step back in 2008, while Hanley Ramirez continues to be a dominating force, which means he is likely to be traded out of Florida any day now. Verlander has lost one mile-per-hour off his fastball in each of the last three seasons. The runners up to the award were Jonathan Papelbon and Ryan Zimmerman. 2005: Huston Street, Oakland | Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Huston Street has had a solid career as a second-tier closer, but he was traded to Colorado this week and is likely headed to a third team in the not-too-distant future. Ryan Howard continues to mash as a one-dimensional slugger, with a .311 career ISO and a 33.4 percent career K%. The runners up to the award were Robinson Cano and Willy Taveras. 2004: Bobby Crosby, Oakland | Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Bobby Crosby's potential has been derailed by injury after injury, although he managed a career high in at-bats in 2008. Canadian Jason Bay has flourished - and a trade to Boston in 2008 will help get him the attention he deserves as one of the better offensive outfielders in baseball. The runners up to the award were Shingo Takatsu and Khalil Greene. 2003: Angel Berroa, Kansas City | Dontrelle Willis, Florida What can we say about Angel Berroa? His rookie season was a fluke, with a capital 'F.' In fact, the remainder of his career also deserves an 'F.' Dontrelle Willis has completely imploded. The runners up to the award were Hideki Matsui and Scott Podsednik. Brandon Webb was third overall in the National League, followed by Miguel Cabrera and Brad Lidge tied at fifth overall. 2002: Eric Hinske, Toronto | Jason Jennings, Colorado Like Berroa, Eric Hinske's rookie season was a fluke, but he has managed to carve out a career as a solid role player, and he had a significant impact on the Rays' magical 2008 season. Jason Jennings' career has been ruined by injuries. The runners up to the award were Rodrigo Lopez and Brad Wilkerson. 2001: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle | Albert Pujols, St. Louis Japanese veterans received the American League Rookie of the Year awards for two straight seasons in 2000 and 2001, which was disappointing to say the least. That said, Ichiro has had an awesome Major League career. That Albert Pujols fellow has also been pretty good. The runners up to the award were C.C. Sabathia and Roy Oswalt. 2000: Kazuhiro Sasaki, Seattle | Rafael Furcal, Atlanta Kazuhiro Sasaki was a solid closer for Seattle for three seasons before suffering through an injury-filled 2003 season. He then walked away from baseball in North America to spend more time with his family. It's hard to believe Rafael Furcal is still only 31 years old. It feels like he's been around forever... and he is still one of the best shortstops in the game. The runners up for the award were Terrence Long and Rick Ankiel - as a pitcher.
Even Small Trades Can Have Big Impacts: A Review of 2007-08
The 2008-09 Major League Baseball off-season is in full swing with the General Managers Meeting underway and with MLB free agents busy declaring their freedom. Last week I took a look back at some of the larger trades that were made during the 2007-08 off-season. This week I am going to continue the theme and take a look at some of the smaller trades made during that same time frame, which had larger-than-expected impacts on one or more teams. To Chicago (AL): To Oakland: Even with 1B/DH-types Jim Thome and Paul Konerko already on the roster, the White Sox management went out and nabbed 1B-OF Nick Swisher with a plan of having him spend the majority of the time in the outfield. Swisher, though, ended up playing 71 games at first base, while filling for an injured - and ineffective - Konerko. Carlos Quentin (see below) also made Swisher expendable from the outfield rotation. Swisher had his worst offensive season in 2008 by posting a line of .219/.332/.410 with a .191 ISO in 497 at-bats. On the plus side, his rates remained around his career-norm (14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%) so a return to his old ways is not out of the question for 2009. From the A's perspective, the trade went fairly well. Ryan Sweeney had a solid, albeit unspectacular, season in the outfield with a line of .286/.350/.383 and rates of 9.0 BB% and 17.4 K%. He is probably not a long-term regular in the outfield, but he should be solid-average in 2009. Gio Gonzalez had a respectable Triple-A season at the age of 22. He allowed 106 hits in 123 innings and posted rates of 4.46 BB/9 and 9.37 K/9. He was roughed up in 10 big league appearances and posted an ERA of 7.68. Fautino de los Santos, who had a breakout 2007 on the mound, was found to be injured after making five minor league starts and underwent undergoing Tommy John surgery. Winner before 2008: Draw
To Detroit: To Texas: This trade was an absolute steal for Detroit, as teams continue to steal pitching away from Texas - a club that needs quality pitching about as badly as any team in baseball. Armando Galarraga is not a superstar, but he proved to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter in 2008. He won 13 games for Detroit by allowing 152 hits in 178.2 innings and posting rates of 3.07 BB/9 and 6.35 K/9. On the downside, Galarraga allowed 28 homers (1.41 HR/9) while playing half his games in a spacious ballpark. In the future, the right-hander might want to try and vary his speeds a little more as his fastball averaged out at 90.2 mph, while his slider was at 84.8 mph, and his change-up was at 84 mph. Michael Hernandez did not even play for Texas in 2008 and spent just 16 games in pro ball - all with the New York Mets' A-ball affiliates. Winner before 2008: Detroit
To Detroit: To Atlanta: It feels like Edgar Renteria has been around forever (and he has in fact played in 13 MLB seasons) but he was only 32 years old in 2008. Regardless, aspects of his game are beginning to slip and he has played with four teams in five seasons. Offensively, he hit .270/.317/.382 with just six stolen bases in 503 at-bats for Detroit. Renteria posted rates of 6.9 BB% and 12.7 K%. In Atlanta, Jair Jurrjens had a solid season and gives the rotation some much-needed hope for the future. He allowed 188 hits in 188 innings pitched and posted rates of 3.35 BB/9 and 6.64 K/9. He did a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard and allowed just 11 home runs all season. Jurrjens relied mainly on his fastball/change-up combo in 2008 and could stand to mix in his slider more often (11.8%) if he wants to continue to improve. Gorkys Hernandez took a step back in High-A ball with a line of .264/.348/.387, along with five homers and 20 stolen bases in 406 at-bats. Winner before 2008: Detroit
To Texas: To Cincinnati: You could say this trade worked out well for both teams... although Josh Hamilton deserves the nod for the best overall season - with an almost MVP-deserving year. But on the other hand, Texas yet again gave away some young, promising pitching to improve its already fairly-potent offence. Hamilton was a run-producing machine in the first half (60 runs, 95 RBI), before tailing off a bit in the second part of the season to finish at 98 runs scored and 130 RBI. He also had an excellent line of .304/.371/.530 with 35 doubles and 32 homers in 624 at-bats. Edinson Volquez had a solid first full season at the Major League level despite some inconsistencies. He won 17 games and allowed just 167 hits in 196 innings. He posted rates of 4.27 BB/9 and 9.46 K/9. Despite pitching in a homer-happy stadium much of the time, Volquez allowed just 14 home runs. Danny Herrera, who may be the shortest player in Major League Baseball at 5'6''-ish, made his MLB debut in 2008 at appears to have a future as a LOOGY. Winner before 2008: Texas
To Atlanta: To Oakland Rarely do salary dumps favor the team doing the expelling. This trade, though, is the exception to the rule. Veteran Mark Kotsay had a solid season for Atlanta (and later Boston) with a line of .276/.329/.403 with six homers in 402 at-bats, but Oakland picked up a player who could be the heir apparent to closer Huston Street. Joey Devine finally showed some of the promise that made him one of the top relievers in college baseball when Atlanta selected him 27th overall during the 2005 draft. Control issues kept him from realizing his potential until 2008 (He has a career 5.10 BB/9 rate). This past season, Devine posted an eye-catching 0.59 ERA while allowing just 23 hits in 45.2 innings. His walk rate was down to 2.96 BB/9, with a strikeout rate of 9.66 K/9. As well, he did not allow a home run all season. The third player in the deal, Canadian minor league pitcher Jamie Richmond, regressed in A-ball. Winner before 2008: Even
To Chicago (AL) To Arizona: Carlos Quentin got a raw deal in Arizona and made the Diamondbacks pay for giving up on him too soon. The former first round pick (29th overall in 2003) - and star college player - has battled injuries throughout his career - and even missed a fair chunk of time in 2008 - but he was awesome when he was on the field for Chicago. He posted a line of .288/.394/.571 and slugged 36 homers and drove in 96 runs in 480 at-bats. Quentin's ISO was an impressive .283. For a power hitter, his rates were solid at 12.1 BB% and 16.7 K%. Chris Carter was not to be outdone. The 21-year-old first baseman slugged 39 homers and drove in 101 runs in High-A ball with rates of 13.2 BB% and 30.8 K%. Oh - and he did it for Oakland after being sent from Chicago to Arizona to Oakland (in the Danny Haren trade) during the off-season. The most impressive part about this whole trade, though, might be the fact that Kenny made the deal without having to trade even one already-injured pitcher... Winner before 2008: Chicago
To Philadelphia: To Houston: This is one of those trades that you can definitely look back on as a difference-maker in 2008. Brad Lidge, who had worn out his welcome in Houston, absolutely rejuvenated his career with the Phillies and won over a hardcore fan base, as well as city. The 31-year-old closer saved 41 games in the regular season and allowed 50 hits in 69.1 innings. He posted rates of 4.54 BB/9 and 11.94 K/9, while allowing just two homers. He saved another seven games in the post-season en route to a World Series title. Michael Bourn stole 41 bases for Houston, but posted a paltry line of .229/.288/.300 in 467 at-bats. Geoff Geary allowed just 45 hits in 64 innings, with rates of 3.94 BB/9 and 6.33 K/9. Mike Costanzo was shipped off to Baltimore in the Miguel Tejada trade. Winner before 2008: Philadelphia
The 2007-08 Winter Trading Season in Review
With the World Series underway it means that the off-season is not far off. In baseball, though, the off-season is never a quiet one; there is always something going on. Last year, the stretch from November to February was a busy time with a number of big names changing jerseys, including Erik Bedard, Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Dan Haren. There were also a number of top prospects changing hands, such as Chris Tillman, Deolis Guerra, and Cameron Maybin. This week, I am going to review how those big trades (at least one star name, plus five or more players involved) worked out for both clubs. Next week, I am going to take a look at some of the smaller trades of the off-season that had larger-than-expected impacts on one or more club. To Minnesota: To Tampa Bay: This trade may have had more impact on the 2008 Major League season than any other trade made all of last year. Not only did the Rays receive a solid Major League starter and an excellent defensive shortstop, but the club also re-made the clubhouse atmosphere with the expulsion of Delmon Young. Matt Garza became a solid No. 3 starter for the Rays behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields. He won 11 games and pitched 184 innings with just 170 hits allowed. Jason Barlett was hurt for a while but he gave the pitchers confidence when he was on the field, which allowed them to pitch to contact. In Minnesota, Delmon Young had an OK season but he failed to hit for power (.115 ISO) and continued to struggle with his patience (5.7 BB%) and pitch selection. Brendan Harris appeared in 130 games with modest success, but is really a utility player. Both Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan spent the majority of the season in the minors. Winner before 2008: Even
To Arizona To Oakland The Arizona Diamondbacks secured a talented No. 2 starter - something a lot of teams lack - but they gave up a great deal of depth to obtain Dan Haren, who is signed through 2013. Haren had a stellar 2008 with 204 hits allowed in 216 innings. He posted rates of 1.67 BB/9 and 8.58 K/9 - with an eye-popping 5.15 K/BB. He also lowered his home runs allowed and batting average against for the third straight season. Connor Robertson spent the majority of the season working out of the Triple-A bullpen but he appeared in six big league games. In Oakland, Carlos Gonzalez appeared in 86 games for in the Majors at the age of 22 and showed his youth - but also his potential. The toolsy outfielder hit .242/.273/.361 with 22 doubles and four homers in 302 at-bats. The outfielder, who split time between center field and right field, obviously needs some more seasoning after posting rates of 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%, with an ISO of .119. Both Dana Eveland and Greg Smith provided more than what was expected of them - although they both faded significantly in the season half of the season. Eveland made 29 starts and posted an ERA of 4.34. He struck out 118 batters and allowed 172 hits in 168 innings of work. His nemesis, though, was the walk. Eveland posted a walk rate of 4.13 (77 in total). Smith made his Major League debut in 2008 and started 32 games for Oakland. He allowed just 169 hits in 190.1 innings, but walked 87 batters (4.11 BB/9). Smith also posted a strikeout rate of 5.25 K/9. He will have to improve upon his GB% of 34.2 if he is going to have a long stay in the Majors, especially given that his fastball averages out at 87.6 mph. Brett Anderson had a solid minor league season and the 22-year-old lefty ended the season by pitching in the Triple-A playoffs. He could contribute at the Major League level in 2009. Aaron Cunningham was slowed by injuries early in the 2008 season, but he rebounded and ended the year in Oakland and should be a future MLB fourth outfielder - at the very least. Chris Carter, who began the winter as a White Sox prospect only to don three different jerseys, is an all-or-nothing slugger who dominated the California home run race with 39 bombs (13 more than the next closest hitter). That total was also second in all of Minor League Baseball, next to veteran Dallas McPherson, who hit 42 in Triple-A. Winner before 2008: A draw
To Detroit To Florida After this trade, just about everybody in baseball - yours truly included - handed Detroit the World Series title. But clubhouse chemistry went awry in The Motor City and players had disappointing seasons. Miguel Cabrera had a terribly slow start to the season and he was criticized for coasting on his new, fat contract. By the time the season ended, though, most of his stats were in line with his career norm - except perhaps his average (.292, the lowest since his rookie season) and on-base percentage (8.3 BB%, again the lowest since his debut year). All-in-all, though, he still managed to hit 37 homers (.245 ISO) and drive in a career-high 127 runs. Former young stud Dontrelle Willis was a mess on the mound with a 9.38 ERA and 35 walks allowed in 24 innings of Major League work. That was a far cry from his 22-win 2005 season at the age of 23. Detroit handed him a three-year deal after the trade for about $30 million so they are stuck with him for the next couple of seasons. For Florida, the trade netted some interesting names but they did not do much in 2008. The key to the trade was young outfielder Cameron Maybin, but he spent the majority of the season in Double-A. His line of .277/.373/.456 in 390 at-bats was good, but not great, especially when you look at the fact he struck out 31.8% of the time with just 13 home runs. On the plus side, he had a late-season promotion to Florida and hit .500 in 32 at-bats. Andrew Miller, the second key piece of the trade, probably should have spent the season in Triple-A rather than in the Majors where he posted a 5.87 ERA in 29 big league appearances - including 20 starts. He posted a walk rate of 4.70 BB/9, but a respectable strikeout rate of 7.46 K/9. He allowed 120 hits in 107.1 innings of work. Mike Rabelo was supposed to fill Florida's void behind the dish but he hit just .202/.256/.294 in 109 at-bats during an injury-filled season. Burke Badenhop appeared in 13 Major League games - including eight starts - but posted a 6.08 ERA with 55 hits and 21 walks allowed in 47.1 innings. Eulogio de la Cruz had a respectable season in the Triple-A starting rotation but he posted an 18.00 ERA in six Major League games with 15 hits and 11 walks allowed in nine innings. Dallas Trahern posted a 6.16 ERA in 21 Triple-A starts. Winner before 2008: Detroit
To Seattle: To Baltimore: If you're a Seattle fan, this trade still makes you sick. Erik Bedard was OK when he was able to pitch but then he broke down - again. He posted a 3.67 ERA and allowed just 70 hits in 81 innings of work. But he also allowed a few too many big home runs (1.00 HR/9) and his command was lacking (4.11 BB/9). There is a chance that Bedard could get non-tendered this winter, which would really, really burn. In exchange for the frustrating Bedard, Seattle gave up a closer, a possible future star outfielder, and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. George Sherrill saved 31 games, although he faltered in the second half of the season. Adam Jones' game showed some holes, including a 4.6 BB%, but he played with energy, continued to show improvements and oozed potential. Chris Tillman, 20, could be one of the Top 5 pitching prospects in baseball. In Double-A, he allowed just 115 hits and 65 walks in 135.2 innings. He also struck out 154 batters. Kam Mickolio does not have a huge ceiling but he made his MLB debut in 2008 and should be a serviceable reliever. Winner before 2008: Seattle, barely
To New York (NL): To Minnesota: Minnesota had a number of suitors for Johan Santana but the organization played its cards poorly and lost out on a number of potential suitors. When Santana started grumbling, the Twins acted hastily and took a deal from New York that never did look all that appetizing - and it looks even less so now. Santana's stuff was not quite as sharp as it used to be, but he still helped the Mets and led the club in almost every pitching category, including wins (16), innings pitched (234.1) and strikeouts (206). For the Twins, Carlos Gomez was the only player to establish himself in the Majors after the trade. He shows potential and is still young at the age of 22, but he really didn't hit for average, power or get on-base, with a line of .258/.296/.360. He does, though, currently offer speed (33 SB) and defence. Deolis Guerra has been disappointing since the trade and his stuff took a big step back this past season in High-A ball. He posted a 5.47 ERA and allowed 71 walks and struck out just 71 batters in 130 innings. Both Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey spent the majority of the season in Triple-A with modest results and will likely have to break into Minnesota as relievers. Winner before 2008: New York
To Houston: To Baltimore Houston took a gamble on Miguel Tejada after his name had been dragged through the mud a bit, and then it got dragged through the muck again after the trade. Regardless, the offensive-minded shortstop had a solid season with a line of .283/.314/.415 in 632 at-bats. His power, though, continued to be MIA with an ISO of .131. Tejada scored 92 runs but his total of 66 RBI was the lowest in 10 seasons. He is no longer the impact hitter that he once was. Over in Baltimore, the club was thankful for receiving Luke Scott in the deal. The outfielder, who did not secure a role in the Majors until he was 28, posted a line of .257/.336/.472 with 23 homers and 65 RBI in 475 at-bats. Pitchers Matt Albers and Troy Patton were derailed by injuries. Albers is rehabbing a partially torn labrum, while Patton underwent surgery for a similar, but more severe, injury. Dennis Sarfate spent the season in the Baltimore bullpen and allowed 62 hits in 79.2 innings. He posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 (no that is not a typo) and 9.72 K/9. Continuing with out theme, he pitched with an injured shoulder all season and was going to have surgery at the end of the year. Mike Costanzo had a disappointing season at Triple-A. Winner before 2008: Baltimore
Rising Stars Collide in Arizona
Are you ready to catch a rising star? The Arizona Fall League will feature the third annual Rising Stars Showcase today, which will pit the brightest young prospects in baseball against each other for bragging rights. Players are selected to the teams by scouting and minor league directors from each Major League organization, in consultation with Arizona Fall League executive director Steve Cobb and his baseball personnel staff. The most impressive prospects on the American Division team include: Tommy Hanson (Atlanta), Aaron Poreda (Chicago AL), Sean West (Florida), Gordon Beckham (Chicago AL), Logan Morrison (Florida), Brett Wallace (St. Louis), Daniel Murphy (New York NL), and Josh Reddick (Boston). Daniel Murphy, who is in Arizona to work on his versatility, is currently hitting .412/.500/.588 in 34 at-bats. He was scored 12 runs, in part due to eight walks (and just three strikeouts). Gordon Beckham, a 2008 first round draft pick, has just five hits in 20 at-bats but three of those have been doubles. Another 2008 first rounder, Brett Wallace, who made it all the way to Double-A in his debut, has been struggling. He is currently hitting .133/.188/.267 in 30 at-bats. Josh Reddick has followed up a solid 2008 regular season with a slow start to the AFL. He is currently hitting .211/.225/.342 in 38 at-bats. Reddick has just one walk to go along with 16 strikeouts. Logan Morrison is currently hitting .423/.423/.654 in 26 at-bats, with one home run and five runs scored. He could very well be knocking on the door of the first base job in Florida next season. Fellow Marlins' prospect Sean West has a 3.38 ERA through three games. He has allowed 11 hits, three walks and nine strikeouts in 10.2 innings pitched. Tommy Hanson has been lights-out in Arizona and has yet to allow a run in three starts. He has allowed just one hit and three walks in 8.2 innings of work. He has also struck out 14. Aaron Poreda, working out of the bullpen, has dominated with no runs allowed in five games. He has allowed five hits, two walks and eight strikeouts. The key players for the National Division team include: Philip Hughes (New York AL), Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee), Brian Matusz (Baltimore), J.P. Arencibia (Toronto), Matt Wieters (Baltimore), Carlos Triunfel (Seattle), Julio Borbon (Texas), and Greg Halman (Seattle). Matt Wieters just keeps on hitting. The catcher, who made it to Double-A in his debut season, is currently hitting .345/.486/.483 in 29 at-bats. He is almost certain to make his MLB debut in 2009, if healthy. Julio Borbon is another player who had a breakout 2008 but he is finding the league to be a little bit tougher. He is currently hitting .229/.357/.286 in 35 at-bats. Borbon has just one extra base hit, seven walks and 10 strikeouts. Catcher J.P. Arencibia may be a little worn out after a long season. He is in the AFL specifically to work on his plate discipline after walking just 18 times in 510 at-bats between High-A and Double-A. In 35 at-bats in the fall league he has just three walks... so he's improving slowly. Carlos Triunfel, one of the youngest players in the league, is hitting .311/.347/.467 in 45 at-bats. He has struck out just five times and has scored 13 runs. Fellow Seattle prospect Greg Halman is hitting .282/.333/.538 in 39 at-bats. He has walked twice with 16 strikeouts. Brian Matusz, a 2008 first round pick, made his pro debut in the AFL after signing late in the year. He has a 1.29 ERA in two starts. He has allowed just three hits and two walks in seven innings. Matusz also has nine strikeouts. Philip Hughes has not been overly sharp in the fall league, with a 5.68 ERA. He has allowed 12 hits and eight walks in 12.2 innings. Hughes also has 11 strikeouts. One really bad outing has skewed Jeremy Jeffress' numbers. He currently has a 12.86 ERA in seven innings. He has allowed 10 hits and six walks to go along with seven strikeouts. Be sure to check back at the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League, in late November, for a more detailed look at some of the best, worst - and most surprising - performances by some of the Major League's future stars.
A Review: The 2007/08 Rule 5 Draft
It's safe to say last year's Rule 5 draft was not as profitable as it has been in other years. There were no Johan Santanas, Joakim Sorias, Josh Hamiltons or Dan Ugglas selected in the winter of 2007. Some rule changes by Major League Baseball have helped clubs hang on to their minor talent. One such rule alteration allows clubs one more year to appraise their players before exposing them to the Rule 5 draft. Clubs are now allowed to wait an extra year - four years for college players and five years for high school players - before either adding them to the 40-man roster (and beginning the count down of their three option years) or passing them under the noses of 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. What this means is that fewer raw, but talented, players are making it to this draft - which was already hit or miss to begin with. The Rule 5 draft is becoming more and more about looking for a cheap 12th arm for the staff or an inexpensive 25th man - which could arguably be said for 15 of the 18 selections from one year ago (83 percent), than it is about finding a raw gem and/or future star. For a refresher on the rules of the Rule 5 draft, click HERE. The 2007/08 Rule 5 draft: 1 Tim Lahey RHP Tampa Bay Minnesota 2 Evan Meek RHP Pittsburgh Tampa Bay 3 Randor Bierd RHP Baltimore Detroit 4 Jose Capellan LHP San Francisco Boston 5 Carlos Guevara RHP Florida Cincinnati 6 Sergio Valenzuela RHP Cincinnati Atlanta 7 Matt Whitney 3B Washington Cleveland 8 Wesley Wright LHP Houston Los Angeles (NL) 9 Fernando Hernandez RHP Oakland Chicago (AL) 10 Brian Barton OF St. Louis Cleveland 11 Randy Wells RHP Toronto Chicago (NL) 12 R.A. Dickey RHP Seattle Minnesota 13 Steven Register RHP New York (NL) Colorado 14 Michael Gardner RHP San Diego New York (AL) 15 Travis Blackley LHP Philadelphia San Francisco 16 Garrett Guzman OF Washington Minnesota 17 Callix Crabbe 2B San Diego Milwaukee 18 Lincoln Holdzkom RHP Philadelphia Boston Those Who Stuck: Bierd, 24, was grabbed by the Orioles out of the Detroit organization after the 2007 season when he struck out 10.25 batters per nine innings at Double-A. The Orioles used him sparingly in 2008 and he appeared in just 29 games and pitched 36.2 innings. He allowed 48 hits and posted rates of 4.66 BB/9 and 6.14 K/9. He'll likely head back to the minors in 2009 for some more seasoning. Guevara was attractive to the Padres because of his screwball, which he had had a fair bit of success with in the Reds organization. Guevara stuck with the Padres but he appeared in just 10 Major League games and 16 minor league games after struggling with injuries throughout the season. He was outrighted to Triple-A in July and the Reds worked out a deal to allow him to remain in the Padres' organization. He could show up in San Diego for some injury relief in 2009. Wright had one of the biggest impacts of any of the 2008 Rule 5 draft picks. He appeared in 71 games after being nabbed out of the Dodgers organization. In 55.2 innings, Wright posted rates of 5.50 BB/9 and 9.22 K/9. The Astros' minor league system is pretty barren at the upper levels so he is likely to get another chance at the big league bullpen in 2009, with a strong spring. Barton was one of the "bigger names" available in the 2007 Rule 5 draft. The former Indians prospect flirted with top prospect status at one point but was always considered a bit of a tweener - not enough range for center field and not enough power for the corner outfield spots. After hitting .268/.354/.392 in 153 at-bats (82 games) with the Cardinals in 2008, that is still where his future appears to lie. Technically, Dickey did not stick with the Mariners at the end of spring training but he was able to remain in the organization thanks to a minor trade with the Twins (with whom he had signed with as a minor league free agent earlier that winter). The most "experienced" Rule 5 selection, Dickey was 33 when he was drafted and had spent 11 seasons in the minors and had appeared in 77 big league games. So what was the big deal? After years of toying around with it, Dickey officially added the knuckleball to his arsenal. In 112.1 innings this season with Seattle, Dickey posted a 5.21 ERA and allowed 124 hits. He posted rates of 4.09 BB/9 and 4.65 K/9. Despite the lackluster numbers, he makes an interesting 12th pitcher on a staff. Meek originally stuck with the Pirates but was designated for assignment in May and was allowed to remain with his new organization. He has always had solid stuff, but Meek has never been able to command it, having posted a career minor league walk rate of 5.66 in six seasons. He posted solid minor league numbers for the Pirates in 2008 (with the best control of his career), but struggled in nine Major League games where his control deserted him again when he walked 12 batters, with seven strikeouts, in 13 innings. Those Who Were Returned and Flourished: Wells, 26, originally made the Blue Jays out of spring training but appeared in just one game before injuries struck the club and required the organization to seek more experienced help. Wells returned to Cubs organization and had a nice year in Triple-A. He was rewarded with a late-season call-up and in four Major League appearances overall he allowed no hits in 5.1 innings. Wells walked three and struck out one. Register failed to make the Mets out of spring training and was returned to the Colorado organization, where he settled into the Triple-A bullpen. He allowed 57 hits in 59 innings and posted rates of 2.90 BB/9 and 7.93 K/9. Register received a brief call-up to the Majors where he posted a 9.00 ERA in 10 games, in part due to four home runs allowed. Those Who Returned and Took A Step Back: The selection of Valenzuela by the Reds out of the Braves' organization was a head-scratcher from the start. His stuff was OK, but he posted ERAs above 6.00 in both 2006 and 2007 in A-ball. In his career, the reliever posted poor rates of 10.56 H/9 and 4.48 K/9. He did not stick with the Reds and, in fact, was not even good enough to pitch with the Braves' organization and he was sent to the Mexican League. The first overall pick in the draft, Lahey bounced around on waivers and through a couple of organizations without appearing in a Major League game before being sent back to the Minnesota Twins. He spent 2008 in Triple-A and allowed 69 hits in 63 innings. The former catcher posted rates of 3.29 BB/9 and 7.57 K/9. Whitney has had an up-and-down minor league career. After a solid debut season in professional baseball, he broke his leg in the off-season playing basketball and missed the subsequent season. A few seasons later, he slugged 32 homers in A-ball, which got him drafted in the Rule 5 draft by the Nationals. With too many infielders on the roster, Washington was unable to keep him so he was sent back to the Indians where he hit just .268/.356/.404 with 10 homers in 463 Double-A at-bats.
A few of the players listed above could still turn in a few good Major League seasons but there definitely are not many players that appear capable of having a major impact in the coming seasons. That said, one of the best things about Major League Baseball is that you never know when a player might surprise you. The 2008/09 Major League Rule 5 draft will be held on Dec. 11, 2008 at the Baseball Winter Meetings in Las Vegas.
Seeing Red: The Minor League System of the Year
Depth is an important thing to have in Major League Baseball. Numerous unexpected injuries occur each year. Players counted on to make important contributions are ineffective. As such, Major League Baseball teams count on their minor league systems to help fill those voids - both temporarily and permanently. The organizations also look to their systems for future stars. So which club benefited the most from its minor league system in 2008? The answer is fairly clear-cut when you analyze each organization's Major League Roster: The most impressive thing about the Cincinnati Reds' season is that the club developed a number of very promising young players despite having the organization's top two prospects fail to succeed as expected. While Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce (albeit to a lesser extent than Bailey) struggled, players such as Johnny Cueto and Joey Votto thrived. Although technically not a rookie due to having too many innings at the Major League level, Edinson Volquez - an import from the Texas organization - was arguably Cincinnati's best starting pitcher. The club also benefited from fill-in contributions from a large number of home-grown talents, including Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, and Daryl Thompson. Let's start off by taking a look at the biggest impacts from the minor league system in 2008. Joey Votto 1B This former catcher burst upon the scene in 2008 and could have been a serious Rookie of the Year candidate in the National League, if it had not been for Geovany Soto's excellent season in Chicago. Votto, a Canadian, began the season with Scott Hatteberg acting as insurance, but the veteran was soon deemed expendable. Votto ended up appearing in 151 games for the Reds in 2008 - more than any other player on the club. He was also second in OPS-plus among the regulars at 124. Votto posted an ISO of .209 in 2008, as well as an impressive 25.2% line-drive rate. The left-handed hitter held his own against southpaws with a line of .289/.356/.477. Jay Bruce OF So, is he Austin Kearns or Adam Dunn? Maybe he's somewhere in between? Both Kearns and Dunn were highly-regarded outfield prospects when they burst upon the scene, but Kearns (.315/.407/.500 at age 22) never fully translated his athletic skills to the diamond and has yet to fully reach his potential (and is now with Washington). Dunn (.262/.371/.578 at age 21) , has had much more success, but he has developed into a one-dimensional slugger (and is now in Arizona). The Reds are hoping for more from Bruce, who struggled in his first Major League season. Now, to be fair to Bruce, he had a pretty nice season for a 21-year-old. However, the expectations were astronomical for the budding superstar, especially after he burst onto the scene early in the season when he batted .579 and slugged 11 hits, while posting five walks and just one strikeout in his first five games. He struggled to hit for average the rest of the season, but Bruce slugged 14 homers in the final two months. Johnny Cueto RHP Not even the Reds expected Cueto to be this good this fast. You can completely ignore the 9-14 record, and the ERA. Yes, Cueto was inconsistent but you cannot discount the raw numbers for the 22-year-old hurler. He showed solid control for a hard-throwing youngster and has excellent make-up. Cueto does a nice job of mixing his three-pitch repertoire, which includes a 93-95 mph fastball, a slider and a change-up (although he used this pitch just 6.7% of the time). He needs to work on avoiding the long ball and could stand to induce more ground balls (38.6 GB%), especially while pitching at home. Homer Bailey The numbers are ugly, especially for someone who was touted as an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year crown. Bailey allowed way too many hits and home runs. The hard-thrower also did not strike anybody out. The whispers about Bailey's lack of desire have been around since high school and, although he's only 22, it's time for him to show a little bit more at the upper levels of professional baseball. Bailey's fastball velocity was down in 2008, which is cause for concern, especially considering how much he leans on it (71.4% of the time in his MLB career). He obviously needs to rely on his secondary pitches more, including his curveball, which can be a plus pitch. Honorable Mention: As mentioned above, Volquez was not technically a rookie in 2008 nor was he a product of the Reds' system. However, he pitched just 80 Major League innings over three seasons with Texas with little or no success. Traded for Josh Hamilton - in a trade that worked out great for both clubs - Volquez blossomed in Cincinnati at the age of 25. One of the reasons for his success was that he relied more on his plus change-up to compliment his 92-95 mph fastball (and occasional breaking ball). He led the club in wins with 17 and strikeouts with 206, and was second in innings pitched with 196. The innings total can actually be seen as a negative as manager Dusty Baker overworked yet another young pitcher. Volquez also led the team in walks with 93, which resulted in a lot of pitches thrown (3,386 to be exact). Others: A collection of minor league players filled in admirably for injured Reds in 2008. Outfielder Chris Dickerson may have secured himself a roster spot for 2009 with a solid debut at .304/.413/.608. Catchers Ryan Hanigan and Wilkin Castillo (acquired in the Dunn trade with Arizona) could battled for the back-up catcher roll in 2009. Infielders Paul Janish and Adam Rosales both struggled with the bat but showed enough on defence to be considered for bench roles next season. Pitcher Daryl Thompson, a former top prospect in the Montreal/Washington system, finally overcame injury woes and made his much-anticipated debut and could be in line for more innings in 2009. The Minnesota Twins narrowly missed the American League playoffs despite relying on a young pitching staff, which included rookies Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins and near-rookie Kevin Slowey. Brian Bass and Craig Breslow, after being acquired from other organizations, were also counted on heavily out of the bullpen. Infielder Brian Buscher graduated from rookie status at the age of 27 by appearing in 70 games. Youngsters Carlos Gomez and Denard Span had significant roles in the outfield. What sets Cincinnati apart from Minnesota is that the Reds' players have higher ceilings and had more statistical success overall in 2008. The Oakland Athletics organization also received consideration for Top Minor League System of the Year, but that club was hurt by the fact most of the young players were acquired from other organizations, including Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Daric Barton, and Gio Gonzalez.
Rating the Prospects: The NL East
Prospect rating season is upon us with the Minor League Baseball regular season now over. With your help, I have been narrowing down some of the better prospects in each team's system with the final goal of identifying the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. Feel free to continue to recommend players that I have overlooked or simply missed. The final division - the NL East - is being reviewed today. In the upcoming weeks, this column will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles, as well as via e-mail. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The players listed below are in no particular order and these are just working/brainstorming lists. New York Mets The Hitters: Reese Havens (Short season, IF/OF/C), Ike Davis (2008 first round pick, 1B/OF), Mike Carp (Double-A, first baseman), Jose Coronado (Double-A, infielder), Emmanuel Garcia (Double-A, infielder), Fernando Martinez (Double-A, outfielder), Josh Thole (High-A, catcher), Ruben Tejeda (High-A, shortstop), Greg Veloz (High-A, second baseman), Francisco Pena (A-ball, catcher), Daniel Murphy (Majors, outfielder), Nick Evans (Majors, outfielder), Lucas Duda (High-A, first baseman), Wilmer Flores (Short season, shortstop), Stefan Welch (Rookie, third baseman), Jefry Marte (Rookie, third baseman), Cesar Puello (Rookie, outfielder), Juan Lagares (Short season, shortstop) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Mets have traded away a number of intriguing prospects in the chase for a World Series title, but the organization does an excellent job of mining for talent, especially on the international front. However, much of the front-line talent is at least three or four years away from making an impact.
The Hitters: Clint Sammons, (Majors, catcher), Brent Lillibridge (Majors, shortstop), Brandon Jones (Majors, outfielder), Jordan Schafer (Double-A, outfielder), Kala Ka'aihue (Double-A, first baseman), Tyler Flowers (High-A, catcher), Brandon Hicks (High-A, shortstop), Gorkys Hernandez (High-A, outfielder), Jon Owings (High-A, outfielder), Jason Heyward (High-A, outfielder), Concepcion Rodriguez (High-A, outfielder), Ernesto Mejia (High-A, first baseman), Eric Campbell (High-A, third baseman), Frederick Freeman (A-ball, first baseman), Cody Johnson (A-ball, outfielder), Jon Gilmore (Short season, third baseman), Robert Brooks (Rookie, infielder) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Braves continue to be the Braves, and stockpile young, raw talent from high schools and Latin America. Like the Mets, though, much of the talent is at A-ball or below, which could suggest a few more rough years for the big league club.
The Hitters: Cameron Maybin (Double-A, outfielder), Kyle Skipworth (2008 first round pick, catcher), Jai Miller (Triple-A, outfielder), Gaby Sanchez (Triple-A, first baseman), Chris Coghlan (Double-A, second baseman), Scott Cousins (Double-A, outfielder), Logan Morrison (High-A, first baseman), Matt Dominguez (A-ball, third baseman), Michael Stanton (A-ball, outfielder), John Raynor (Double-A, outfielder), Bryan Peterson (Double-A, outfielder), Osvaldo Martinez (A-ball, infielder), Miguel Fermin (Short season, catcher), Isaac Galloway (Rookie, outfielder), Ernesto Manzanillo (Rookie, third baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Marlins have some interesting pitchers approaching the Majors, but the overall depth is not impressive. The hitting depth is not deep either with a lot of young, toolsy players having fizzled out in recent seasons. That said, Logan Morrison, Michael Stanton and Matt Dominguez offer huge upsides, but Stanton and Dominguez are probably three years away from helping Florida.
The Hitters: Anthony Hewitt (2008 first round pick, shortstop), Zach Collier (Rookie, outfielder), Anthony Gose (Rookie, outfielder), Sebastian Valle (Rookie, catcher), Jason Donald (Double-A, shortstop), Quintin Berry (High-A, outfielder), Michael Taylor (High-A, outfielder), Travis D'Arnaud (A-ball, catcher), Travis Mattair (A-ball, third baseman), Michael Durant (A-ball, first baseman), Dominic Brown (A-ball, outfielder), Joel Naughton (A-ball, catcher), Freddy Galvis (A-ball, shortstop), Cody Overbeck (Short season, third baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Phillies organization does not have the depth that some clubs have, but it has some very high-ceiling players (who are extremely raw), including many of the players in Rookie ball and A-ball. From the hitting side of things, the cupboards are almost bare above A-ball.
The Hitters: Destin Hood (Rookie, outfielder), Adrien Nieto (Rookie, catcher), Esmailyn Gonzalez (Rookie, shortstop), Leonard Davis (Triple-A, outfielder), Ian Desmond (Double-A, shortstop), Edgardo Baez (Double-A, outfielder), Marvin Lowrance (Double-A, outfielder), Stephen King (High-A, third baseman), Christopher Marrero (High-A, first baseman), Michael Burgess(A-ball, outfielder), Luke Montz (Triple-A, catcher), Sean Rooney (A-ball, catcher), Jake Smolinski (A-ball, infielder), Derek Norris (Short season, catcher) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Nationals system is still not overflowing with prospects but it has come a long way since the days of being run by Major League Baseball and having a strict development budget. There are some interesting pitchers in the low minors and some toolsy hitters sprinkled throughout the system. Failing to sign first round pick Aaron Crow in 2008 really hurts the system.
Rating the Prospects: The AL West
Prospect rating season is upon us with the Minor League Baseball regular season now over. With your help, I am going to narrow down some of the better prospects in each team's system with the final goal of identifying the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. Feel free to recommend players I have overlooked or simply missed. There are two divisions remaining: the AL West (which I'll look at today), the NL East, which I'll wrap up tomorrow. After that, the following weeks will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The players listed below are in no particular order and these are just working/brainstorming lists. Texas Rangers The Hitters: Elvis Andrus (Double-A, shortstop), Taylor Teagarden (Majors, catcher), Julio Borbon (Double-A, outfielder), Engle Beltre (A-ball, outfielder), German Duran (Majors, infielder), John Mayberry (Triple-A, outfielder), Carlos Santana (A-ball, outfielder), Johnny Whittleman (Double-A, third baseman), Max Ramirez (Triple-A, catcher), Joaquin Arias (Majors, infielder), Jose Vallejo (Double-A, infielder), Justin Smoak (2008 first round pick, first baseman), Manuel Pina (Double-A, catcher), Chad Tracy, (Double-A, first baseman), Ian Gac (High-A, first baseman), Marcus Lemon (High-A, outfielder), Renny Osuna (High-A, infielder), Clark Murphy (Rookie, first baseman) Comments: OK, which prospects did I forget? Texas certainly has one of the better systems in baseball. There is plenty of pitching depth, which is good considering it has been the organization's Achilles' heel in recent years. Interestingly, Texas has achieved an excellent system through a variety of methods including trades (with Boston, Atlanta), the draft (Beavan, Borbon), and the international market (Boscan, Vallejo).
The Hitters: Carlos Triunfel (High-A, shortstop), Michael Saunders (Triple-A, outfielder), Matt Tuiasosopo (Triple-A, infielder), Carlos Peguero (High-A, outfielder), Adam Moore (Double-A, catcher), Greg Halman (Double-A, outfielder), Matt Mangini (Double-A, third baseman), Rob Johnson (Majors, catcher), Yung Chi Chen (Triple-A, infielder), Jharmidy De Jesus (Rookie, shortstop), Danny Carroll (A-ball, outfielder), Mario Martinez (Rookie, third baseman), Denny Almonte (A-ball, outfielder), Alex Liddi (A-ball, third baseman), Dennis Raben (Short season, outfielder), Oswaldo Navarro (Triple-A, infielder), James McOwen (High-A, outfielder), Luis Valbuena (Triple-A, infielder), Michael Wilson (Double-A, outfielder), Edilio Colina (A-ball, second baseman), Tyson Gillies (Short season, outfielder) Comments: OK, which prospects did I forget? The Major League club is in disarray and the minor league system is a little bit better off - but not much. The pitching depth is thin and it can be hard to get a good read on the hitting prospects because they have been rushed so much. Regardless, there are some intriguing toolsy players in the system, including Carlos Triunfel and Greg Halman.
The Hitters: Matt Spencer (High-A, outfielder), Adrian Cardenas (Double-A, second baseman), Corey Brown (High-A, outfielder), Jermaine Mitchell (High-A, outfielder), Landon Powell (Triple-A, catcher), Javier Herrera (Double-A, outfielder), Sean Doolittle (Double-A, first baseman), Gregorio Petit (Triple-A, shortstop), Justin Sellers (Double-A, shortstop), Matt Sulentic (High-A, outfielder), Jeff Baisley (Majors, third baseman), Josh Horton (High-A, infielder), Cliff Pennington (Majors, infielder), Anthony Recker (Double-A, catcher), Chris Carter (High-A, first baseman), Aaron Cunningham (Majors, outfielder), Eric Patterson (Majors, outfielder), Josh Donaldson (High-A, catcher), Jemile Weeks (2008 first round pick, second baseman), Rashun Dixon (Rookie, outfielder), Wes Bankston (Triple-A, first baseman) Comments: OK, which prospects did I forget? Oakland has another strong system in the AL West, thanks in part to a number of trades that netted key prospects. The Dan Haren trade could turn out to be extremely beneficial for the Athletics organization as all six players received in return have looked good, with many exceeding expectations. The organization has done a better job in recent years with drafting pitchers than it has with hitters. After having almost non-existent success on the international front in recent seasons, Oakland made a huge splash by signing top 16-year-old Latin talent Michel Inoa for more than $4 million and has recommitted itself to the market.
The Hitters: Matt Brown (Majors, third baseman), Freddy Sandoval (Majors, infielder), Hank Conger (High-A, catcher), Pete Bourjos (High-A, outfielder), Hainley Statia (Double-A, infielder), Ryan Mount (High-A, infielder), Matt Sweeney (Injured, first baseman), Andrew Romine (A-ball, infielder), Mark Trumbo (Double-A, first baseman), Terrell Alliman (Rookie, outfielder), Bobby Wilson (Triple-A, catcher), Alexia Amarista (Rookie, infielder), P.J. Phillips (High-A, infielder), Hector Estrella (A-ball, infielder), Luis Jimenez (Short season, third baseman) Comments: OK, which prospects did I forget? A former minor league powerhouse, Los Angeles has seen its system slowly erode due to a combination of graduating players, injuries and trades. The system has helped the organization make a number of key trades, with the Mark Teixeira acquisition being the most recent example. Even though the system looks the worse for wear right now, the club always manages to turn sleeper prospects and toolsy players into effective Major League players.
Rating the Prospects: The NL Central
Prospect rating season is just about upon us with the Minor League Baseball season now over. Over the next few weeks, with your help, I am going to narrow down some of the better prospects in each team's system with the final goal of identifying the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. Feel free to recommend players I have overlooked or simply missed. There are three divisions remaining: the NL Central (which I'll look at today), the AL West and the NL East. After that, the next few weeks will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The players listed below are in no particular order and these are just working/brainstorming lists. Chicago Cubs The Hitters: Josh Vitters (Short season, third baseman), Tyler Colvin (Double-A, outfielder), Tony Thomas (High-A, second baseman), Welington Castillo (Triple-A, catcher), Ryan Flaherty (Short season, shortstop), Steve Clevenger (High-A, catcher), James Adduci (High-A, outfielder) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Cubs have a number of raw, young pitchers coming into the picture, but not a ton of depth in the upper minors. Mitch Atkins has been a nice surprise but his potential does not quite match up with his 2008 numbers. Tyler Colvin has been a bit of a disappointment after his lack of patience caught up with him at Double-A, as many thought it would.
The Hitters: Drew Stubbs (Triple-A, outfielder), Devin Mesoraco (A-ball, catcher), Todd Frazier (High-A, shortstop), Juan Francisco (High-A, third baseman), Chris Valaika (Double-A, shortstop), Justin Turner (Double-A, second baseman), Neftali Soto (A-ball, third baseman), Craig Tatum (Triple-A, catcher), Zack Cozart (A-ball, shortstop), Paul Janish (Triple-A, shortstop), Adam Rosales (Triple-A, infielder), Brandon Waring (A-ball, third baseman), Daniel Dorn (Double-A, outfielder), Yonder Alonso (2008 first round pick, first baseman), Shaun Cumberland (Triple-A, outfielder), Chris Heisey (Double-A, outfielder), Wilkin Castillo (Majors, catcher) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Reds organization has a lot of depth, even with the graduation of Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, etc. Right-hander Scott Carroll, though, was just nabbed for allegedly using illegal substances so he will sit out the first 50 games of next season. The organization is stacked with infield talent, with a wave of players being ready in mid to late 2009, including Chris Valaika, Justin Turner, Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, and even 2008 first round pick Yonder Alonso.
The Hitters: Eli Iorg (Double-A, outfielder), Josh Flores (High-A, outfielder), Mitch Einertson (Double-A, outfielder), Colin DeLome (High-A, outfielder), Chris Johnson (Triple-A, third baseman), Max Sapp (A-ball, catcher), Jordan Parraz (High-A, outfielder), Brian Bogusevic (Double-A, outfielder), Kolby Clemens (High-A, catcher), Wladimir Sutil (Double-A, infielder), Jason Castro (Short season, catcher) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? Well, one of the game's worst systems still is not much better after a full calendar year. With that said, a few players have resurrected their careers, including Brian Bogusevic - who has switched from pitching to playing the outfield with excellent results - and Kolby Clemens - who is now catching and showing some improvements with the bat.
The Hitters: Alcides Escobar (Majors, shortstop), Mat Gamel (Majors, third baseman), Cole Gillespie (Double-A, outfielder), Brent Brewer (High-A, shortstop), Angel Salome (Majors, catcher), Lorenzo Cain (Double-A, outfielder), Caleb Gindl (A-ball, outfielder), Jonathan Lucroy (High-A, catcher), Taylor Green (High-A, third baseman), Lee Haydel (A-ball, outfielder), Michael Brantley (Double-A, outfielder), Hernan Iribarren (Triple-A, outfielder), Brett Lawrie (2008 first round pick, catcher), Cutter Dykstra (Rookie, outfielder), Eric Farris (A-ball, second baseman), Eric Fryer (A-ball, outfielder), Shawn Zarraga (Rookie, catcher) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The pitching is a little thin on the farm for the Brewers and there are some intriguing hitters, although not a ton of superstars-in-the-making. Mat Gamel and Angel Salome could be special players, but Alcides Escobar is probably a solid regular. There is not much power amongst the outfield prospects so they'll have to stick in center field or they'll end up as platoon players or fourth outfielders. Brett Lawrie has a chance to be something specially if he can stick behind the dish.
The Hitters: Brett Wallace (Double-A, third baseman), Colby Rasmus (Triple-A, outfielder), Bryan Anderson (Triple-A, catcher), Peter Kozma (High-A, shortstop), Jon Jay (Triple-A, outfielder), Allen Craig (Double-A, third baseman), Tyler Greene (Triple-A, shortstop), Mark Hamilton (Double-A, first baseman), Shane Robinson (Triple-A, outfielder), Shane Peterson (Short season, outfielder), Daryl Jones (Double-A, outfielder), Jose Martinez (Double-A, second baseman), Jon Edwards (Short season, outfielder) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? The Cardinals organization has some much-needed depth, which has been missing in recent years. There are a number of good pitching prospects and I have always been a fan of Jess Todd. Brett Wallace, Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson should all impact the Major League team next season. Shane Robinson and Jon Jay are similar players who could be valuable fourth or fifth outfielders, although the big league team is not hurting from a lack of outfield depth.
The Hitters: Robinzon Diaz (Majors, catcher), Andrew McCutchen (Triple-A, outfielder), Neil Walker (Triple-A, third baseman), Steve Pearce (Majors, outfielder), Shelby Ford (Double-A, second baseman), Jamie Romak (Double-A, first baseman), Brian Bixler (Majors, infielder), Brad Corley (Double-A, outfielder), Brian Friday (High-A, shortstop), Jim Negrych (Double-A, third baseman), Pedro Alvarez (2008 first round pick, third baseman), Jody Mercer (A-ball, shortstop), Robbie Grossman (Rookie, outfielder), Jose Tabata (Double-A, outfielder), Jarek Cunningham (Rookie, third baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I overlook? Some late season trades have helped the system a bit, although a number of the young players received are already in the Majors (Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss). There are no pitching prospects that scream "No. 1 starter!" but there are a couple guys who could settle into the middle of the Pirates rotation, including recently-acquired Bryan Morris. Robinzon Diaz was a nice under-the-radar pick-up from Toronto. Andrew McCutchen should have a big impact on Pittsburgh next season.
Rating the Prospects: The AL Central
Prospect rating season is just about upon us with the Minor League Baseball season all but over and we are now into playoffs in most leagues. Over the next five weeks (one division a week), with your help, I am going to pick the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. After that, the next six weeks will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The players listed below are in no particular order and these are just working/brainstorming lists. Minnesota Twins The Hitters: Wilson Ramos (High-A, catcher), Joe Benson (A-ball, outfielder), Ben Revere (A-ball, outfielder), Jason Pridie (Triple-Al, outfielder), Trevor Plouffe (Triple-A, outfielder), Chris Parmalee (A-ball, outfielder), Deibinson Romero (A-ball, outfielder), Aaron Hicks (Rookie, outfielder), Tyler Ladendorf (Rookie, shortstop), Luke Hughes (Triple-A, third baseman), Erik Lis (Double-A, first baseman), Steve Tollenson (Double-A, second baseman), Daniel Valencia (Double-A, infielder), David Winfree (Double-A, outfielder), Steve Singleton (High-A, second baseman), Juan Portes (High-A, outfielder), Rene Tosoni (High-A, outfielder), Angel Morales (Short season, outfielder), Jonathan Waltenbury (Short season, first baseman), Alexander Soto (Short season, catcher), Comments: So who did I miss? OK... Wow, there are a lot of intriguing (but VERY raw) players in this system. What a fun system. You do have to worry about how many of the high draft picks from four years or so ago have failed to pan out, such as Trevor Plouffe... who probably should have stuck to pitching. Regardless, it seems to be, at first glance, that Minnesota has the nicest system in the league.
The Hitters: Chris Getz (Triple-A, second baseman), Jose Martinez (A-ball, outfielder), John Shelby Jr. (High-A, outfielder), Christian Marrero (A-ball, first baseman), Sergio Morales, Sergio Miranda (High-A, shortstop), Francisco Hernandez (High-A, catcher), Gordon Beckham (2008 first round pick, shortstop), Jordan Danks (A-ball, outfielder), Cole Armstrong (Triple-A, catcher), Brandon Allen (Double-A, first baseman), Dale Mollenhauer (High-A, second baseman), Jorge Castillo (A-ball, first baseman) Comments: So who did I miss? There aren't many, if any, impact players near the top of this system so Chicago is going to have to work the free agent market for the next few years. Aside from Beckham, there was nothing overly special about the 2008 draft unless your name is Williams.
The Hitters: Wes Hodges (Double-A, third baseman), Beau Mills (High-A, third baseman), Nick Weglarz (High-A, outfielder), Jordan Brown (Triple-A, first baseman), Matt McBride (A-ball, catcher), Trevor Crowe (Triple-A, outfielder), Josh Rodriguez (Double-A, shortstop), Lonnie Chisenhall (Short season, shortstop), Chris Gimenez (Triple-A, catcher), Carlos Santana (Double-A, catcher), Matt LaPorta (Double-A, outfielder), Ron Rivas (A-ball, infielder), Jared Goedert (High-A, infielder), Matthew Brown (A-ball, outfielder) Comments: So who did I miss? Cleveland has traditionally been a team that favors college draft picks but the organization has some interesting young pitchers at A-ball but it's hard to pick exactly who the most promising is out of the group at this point. I personally think Nick Weglarz is a very interesting player and have liked him since he was drafted by Cleveland... His power will play in the majors, but I worry about the batting average.
The Hitters: Mike Moustakas (A-ball, third baseman), Derrick Robinson (High-A, outfielder), Jeff Bianchi (High-A, infielder), Kila Kaaihue (Triple-A, first baseman), Eric Hosmer (2008 first round pick, first baseman), Johnny Giavotella (A-ball, second baseman), Joe Dickerson (High-A, outfielder), Adrian Ortiz (High-A, outfielder), Jose Bonilla (Rookie, catcher) Comments: So who did I miss? The pitching is much, much deeper than the hitting but Mike Moustakas is a nice hitting prospect, despite his slow start to the 2008 season. Hopefully the Scott Boras contract dispute involving Pedro Alvarez and now Eric Hosmer can get worked out soon. It's not helping either player's career.
The Hitters: Cale Iorg (High-A, shortstop), Scott Sizemore (High-A, second baseman), Mike Hollimon (Triple-A, second baseman), Jeff Larish (Triple-A, first baseman), Matt Joyce (Triple-A, outfielder), Danny Worth (Triple-A, shortstop), Clete Thomas (Triple-A, outfielder), Ryan Strieby (High-A, first baseman), Alex Avila (A-ball, catcher), Will Rhymes (Triple-A, infielder), James Skelton (Double-A, catcher), Wilkin Ramirez (Double-A, outfielder), Justin Henry (A-ball, second baseman), Mike Gosse (Short season, second baseman) Comments: So who did I miss? A few players have taken some big steps this season but not nearly large enough to off-set a very poor outlook for this system. There are some interesting young pitchers but they are a ways away, except perhaps for Porcello who could end up in Detroit in 2009. Offensively, though, no one really impresses me much. To make up for a lack of prospects in the system, Detroit has moved (rushed) some players through pretty quickly, such as 2007 draft pick Danny Worth.
Rating the Prospects: NL West
Prospect rating season is just about upon us with the Minor League Baseball season all but over and we are now into playoffs in most leagues. Over the next five weeks (one division a week), with your help, I am going to pick the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. After that, the next six weeks will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The players listed below are in no particular order and these are just working/brainstorming lists. Arizona Diamondbacks The Hitters: Gerardo Parra (High-A, outfielder), Reynaldo Navarro (Short season, shortstop), Ed Easley (High-A, catcher), Pedro Ciriaco (High-A, shortstop), Mark Hallberg (High-A, infielder), Pete Clifford (High-A, outfielder), Evan Frey (High-A, outfielder), Collin Cowgill (A-ball, outfielder) Comments: I had forgotten how bad the Arizona system has gotten since the organization traded away most of its promising players, albeit to acquire some pretty good players like Adam Dunn and Danny Haren. The pitching certainly looks stronger than the offence, although there are a lot of pitchers that appear to be future No. 4 or 5 starters. There don't seem to be any impact bats anywhere near the top of the system (I still can't believe how badly Arizona gave Carlos Quentin away, but I guess that makes up for stealing Chris Young).
The Hitters: Pedro Baez (A-ball, third baseman), Josh Bell (High-A, third baseman), Ivan DeJesus(Double-A, shortstop), Andrew Lambo (Double-A, outfielder), Lucas May (Double-A, catcher), Xavier Paul (Triple-A, outfielder), Kyle Russell (Rookie, outfielder), Austin Gallagher (High-A, third baseman), Jamie Pedroza (High-A, shortstop), Trayvon Robinson (High-A, outfielder), Comments: The Dodgers continue to have a nice collection of raw, toolsy players, although the system is not as deep as it has been in recent years. The organization is not afraid to promote young, promising players, rather than having them sit around dominating inferior leagues all season (San Fran, can you hear me?). It seems that every time a LAD prospect falters, two more sleepers come to the forefront.
The Hitters: Dexter Fowler (Double-A, outfielder), Hector Gomez (High-A, shortstop), Chris Nelson (Double-A, shortstop), Michael McKenry (High-A, catcher), Jonathan Herrera (Triple-A, shortstop), Corey Wimberly (Double-A, second baseman), Eric Young Jr. (Double-A, second base), Daniel Carte (Double-A, outfielder), Daniel Mayora (High-A, shortstop), Comments: The Rockies have a real glut of prospects at Double-A, both on the mound and in the field. There are some intriguing speedsters in the system but a lot of them appear to be headed to bench roles at the MLB level. Fowler, though, looks like a serious prospect and could be playing full-time in Colorado as soon as 2009. Keep an eye on Jhoulys Chacin and Aneury Rodriguez.
The Hitters: Buster Posey (Short season, catcher), Conor Gillaspie (Short season, third baseman), Brandon Crawford (Short season, shortstop), Roger Kieschnick (NA, outfielder), Angel Villalona (High-A, first baseman), Nick Noonan (A-ball, second base), Wendell Fairley (Rookie, outfielder), Brian Horwitz (Triple-A, outfielder), Nate Schierholtz (Triple-A, outfielder), Comments: Knowing that they had stolen some amazing pitching prospects during the 2007 draft, the Giants concentrated on nabbing some interesting and advanced college hitters in 2008. The Giants' minor league system was horrible as recently as two years ago and has improved significantly in a short period of time. The depth is still lacking a bit, but there are some stars-in-the-making. I just wish the Giants promoted players a little more aggressively, rather than letting them dominate inferior competition for significant periods of time, which seemingly does nothing for a player's development.
The Hitters: Allan Dykstra (High-A, first baseman), Jaff Decker (Short season, outfielder), James Darnell (Short season, third baseman), Logan Forsythe (Rookie, infielder), Blake Tekotte (Short season, outfielder), Cole Figueroa (Short season, second baseman), Matt Antonelli (Triple-A, second base), Cedric Hunter (High-A, outfielder), Kyle Blanks (Double-A, first baseman), Yefri Carvajal (A-ball, outfielder), Kellen Kulbacki (High-A, outfielder), Will Venable, Drew Cumberland (A-ball, shortstop), Mitch Canham (High-A, catcher), Lance Zawadzki (Double-A, shortstop), Chad Huffman (Double-A, outfielder), Rayner Contreras (High-A, infielder), Eric Sogard (High-A, second baseman) Comments: It's been a disappointing season for the San Diego Padres organization from top to bottom. A number of interesting prospects disappointed throughout the season and the club continues to be snake-bitten when it comes to first round draft picks. The organization's impact depth has been hurt by years of drafting "safe" college picks with lower ceilings. The pitching depth is especially sorry, while the hitting is starting to show signs of life.
Rating the Prospects: AL East
Prospect rating season is just about upon us with the Minor League Baseball season in its last full week (Where did the time go?). Over the next six weeks (one division a week), with your help, I am going to pick the Top 15 prospects in each organization's stable. After that, the next six weeks will be devoted to ranking those prospects that people helped choose in the comments section of the articles. Things to consider when choosing the prospects are 1) tools, 2) statistics, 3) history, and 4) level of competition/age. The players also must still be rookie eligible, which means pitchers cannot have exceed 50 big league innings and hitters cannot have exceeded 130 at-bats at the MLB level. Feel free to also comment on who you think is the best prospect in the division, as well as which team has the best minor league system. The Baltimore Orioles The Hitters: Matt Wieters (Double-A, catcher), Nolan Reimold (Double-A, outfielder), Mike Costanza (Triple-A, third baseman), Billy Rowell (High-A third baseman), Brandon Snyder (High-A, first baseman), Miguel Abreu (High-A, second baseman), Chris Vinyard (High-A, designated hitter), Ryan Adams (A-ball, second baseman), Matt Angle (A-ball, outfielder), Tyler Kolodny (Short season, third baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I forget that should be in the Top 15? Is Wieters or Tillman worthy of the coveted No. 1 overall spot... or is there a dark horse candidate? The pitching certainly seems stronger in the system than the hitting, with the exception of Wieters. If you look at the pitching coming up the pipe in this system, it's not hard to envision Baltimore becoming pretty successful in a few years if Erbe, Tillman and Arrieta can stay healthy.
The Hitters: Travis Snider (Triple-A, outfielder), J.P. Arencibia (Double-A, catcher), Brian Jeroloman (Triple-A, catcher), David Cooper (2008 No. 1 pick, first baseman), Kevin Ahrens (A-ball, third baseman), Justin Jackson (A-ball, shortstop), John Tolisano (A-ball, second baseman), Eric Eiland (A-ball, outfielder), Brad Emaus (High-A, second baseman), Balbino Fuenmayor (Rookie, third baseman), Scott Campbell (Double-A, second baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I forget that should be in the Top 15? The Blue Jays are absolutely loaded in left-handed pitching, which is always an extremely valuable commodity. At first blush, I would say the hitting is stronger overall than the pitching but a lot of the really interesting hitters are raw and toolsy (wait, is this Toronto?)
The Hitters: Reid Brignac (Triple-A, shortstop), Desmond Jennings (High-A, outfielder), Ryan Royster (High-A, outfielder), Tim Beckham (2008 First Overall Pick, shortstop), John Jaso (Triple-A, catcher), Rhyne Hughes (Double-A, first baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I forget that should be in the Top 15? The Rays have definitely focused harder on drafting pitching in recent years than hitting, or perhaps the organization has just been lucky? A lot of its top-ranked pitchers were not even first round draft picks and they definitely found good value in pitchers such as Davis, Hellickson and Rollins.
The Hitters: George Kottaras (Triple-A, catcher), Chris Carter (Triple-A, OF-1B), Lars Anderson (Double-A, first baseman), Aaron Bates (Double-A, first baseman), Argenis Diaz (Double-A, shortstop), Josh Reddick (Double-A, outfielder), Jon Still (High-A, catcher), Chih-Hsien Chiang (High-A, second baseman), Yamaico Navarro (High-A, shortstop), Ryan Kalish (High-A, outfielder), Jason Place (High-A, outfielder), Will Middlebrooks (Short season, third baseman), Ryan Dent (Short season, shortstop), Michael Almanzar (A-ball, third baseman), Oscar Tejeda (A-ball, shortstop) Comments: OK, so who did I forget that should be in the Top 15? Boston's draft spending spree has been well publicized as of late but I think it is a great thing. I like to see talented players get drafted and enter the pro ranks. I'll admit I think the draft system needs an overhaul - well, a salary cap of some sort for sure... But I don't blame Boston for throwing around the money; I'd do the same thing. The club also does really well in the foreign markets, doesn't it? There are at least six interesting foreign-signed players above... Boston is definitely covering all the bases.
The Hitters: Austin Jackson (Double-A, outfielder), Frank Cervelli (Double-A, catcher), Matt Cusick (High-A, second baseman), Damon Sublett (High-A, second baseman), Eduardo Nunez (High-A, shortstop), Luis Nunez (High-A, infielder), Jesus Montero (A-ball, 1B/C), Austin Romine (A-ball, catcher), Brad Suttle (A-ball, third baseman) Comments: OK, so who did I forget that should be in the Top 15? With all the money New York has, the organization has kind of let the system fall into disrepair. There are some intriguing prospects, but none that really wow... although Jackson and Montero could be near wow. That said, New York has always had an uncanny ability to turn OK prospects into really good players, such as Robinson Cano. Overall, between the two powerhouses, Boston seems to have a better run minor league system and scouting department than New York.
Wrappin' Up the Draft
The 2008 draft deadline has come and gone, and when the dust settled almost all the big-name amateur draft picks had signed on the dotted line - save for three. A trio of pitchers chose not to begin chasing their Major League Baseball dream right away, including Aaron Crow (Washington), Joshua Fields (Seattle) and Gerrit Cole (New York AL). Both Crow and Fields are considering playing for independent baseball leagues, while Cole - a prep right-hander - is headed off to pitch for UCLA. Crow will have to wait to sign with a new club until next year. Fields, though, as a senior without the option of returning to school, did not have to sign at the deadline like everyone else. He has until the week before the 2009 draft to sign with Seattle, but what is he waiting for? He turned 23 years old yesterday and needs significant work on his control before becoming an effective Major League reliever (He has averaged more than five walks per nine innings in his last two college seasons). The market seems pretty simple to me, as Fields was taken sandwiched between two other college relievers who signed for $1.54 million (Andrew Cashner) and $1.48 million (Ryan Perry). Cole will have to wait a full three years, which is a big risk considering the fragility of pitchers and the amount of money he turned down from the Yankees (more than $2 million). I can understand wanting to get a good education, but $2 million is a pretty good cushion if the Major League career does not turn out - and you are never too old to go back to school. It came down to the wire but the top eight picks in the draft all came to terms. Top pick Tim Beckham and sixth round Kyle Skipworth both signed more than a month ago and have been able to benefit from valuable development time in the minors. Negotiations between Pedro Alvarez, the second overall pick, and Pittsburgh came down to the wire but he signed for $6 million. The Pirates needs to make the move after last year's debacle (Daniel Moskos). Kansas City threw out another $6 million to high school slugger Eric Hosmer, who is considered a very advanced offensive player. The club also gave seven figures to fourth round selection Tim Melville, a talented right-handed pitcher whom many thought was headed to college (which is why he fell out of first-round consideration). Interestingly enough, the small-market Royals spent more on the draft ($10-plus million) than any other club, according to Baseball America. Baltimore signed top college pitcher Brian Matusz to a Major League contract with a signing bonus of $3.2 million, and with more than $6 million guaranteed over the life of his career. Catcher Buster Posey settled with San Francisco for a whopping $6.2 million, which might have been the biggest overpayment in the top eight. He's talented, but his bat may not be superstar quality, which is what I'd hope for from an amateur being handed that much money up front. Yonder Alonso, on the other hand, could be the biggest steal of the draft for "only" $2 million. That said, he did receive a Major League contract and a guarantee of $4.55 million. Although he doesn't really fit in with Cincinnati's current 25-man roster (thanks to the presence of top rookie Joey Votto), teams always find a way to make room for players with star power. Alonso has been a consistent performer for three college seasons, and he has excellent plate discipline to go along with his 30 home run power potential. Gordon Beckham agreed to terms with the White Sox for $2.2 million and could move quickly through the club's minor league system. The Rangers wrapped up Justin Smoak, the 11th overall selection in the draft, for $3.5 million. Smoak has 25-30 home run potential, as well as Gold Glove promise in the field. Despite concerns about his hip, San Diego gave Allan Dykstra $1.15 million to forgo his senior college season. Boston gave 30th pick and high school two-way player Casey Kelly $3 million to turn a blind eye to a college career. The organization also threw out seven-figure contracts to two other draft picks (Ryan Westmoreland and Pete Hissey). Let's take a quick look now at the race for American League and National League Rookies of the Year, although I will go into more detail next week. On the offensive side of things, Geovany Soto (Chicago NL) and David Murphy (Texas) are tied for the lead in hits with 114. Evan Longoria is leading the pack with 22 homers (and slugging at .533), while Soto is just four behind. Murphy has driven in 74 runs for Texas, while Longoria is just three runs short. Boston outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury's 38 steals are 27 more than his closest competition. Soto's .286 batting average is good for first overall, while Cincinnati's Joey Votto is second at .281. Atlanta's Gregor Blanco leads all rookies with a .371 on-base average. As for the pitchers, Nick Blackburn (Minnesota) and Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta) are leading the way with 152.2 and 151.1 innings, respectively. Blackburn has given up 170 hits (the most of any rookie pitcher) but he also has the lowest BB/9 ratio, having allowed just 26 free passes. Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati) leads the rookie hurlers with 136 strikeouts, which is 24 more than second-place Jurrjens. Armando Galarraga (Detroit) and Jurrjens are tied for the most rookie wins with 11. Galarraga also leads rookies with a 3.11 ERA. The most saves by a rookie goes to Cleveland's Masa Kobayashi.
The Clock is Ticking
Major League Baseball (MLB) teams, including scouts, scouting directors and general managers, are no doubt buzzing like a bee hive in a hurricane. The deadline for signing 2008 amateur draft picks expires on this Friday, Aug. 15. Because many of the remaining players are expected to sign above-slot deals, MLB has 'encouraged' teams to delay the announcements until right before the deadline in hopes of limiting the effect those would have on other negotiations. What is most surprising is the lack of whispers regarding pre-arranged deals that are just waiting for MLB's seal of approval to make them public; there is a lot we don't know this year as the time ticks down. Here is what we don't know (Unsigned Players): Six of the Top 10 picks remain unsigned, which I personally hate to see as it doesn't help these players' developments. Hosmer, like fellow prepster Cole, is advised by the Scott Boras Corporation so they will likely sign as long as they get ridiculous amounts of money to play a game they 'love.' Hosmer offers an exciting future and could pair beautifully with 2007 first round draft pick and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The moment Alvarez signs with Pittsburgh he could become the organization's franchise player and will give fans a lot to talk about (finally - although the Manny Ramirez trade has helped too). Matusz and Crow, by far the top college arms in the draft, are expected to get Major League contracts, although Crow's discussions with Washington have not gone well and there is an outside shot he will not sign. Posey and Alonso will get done, with the backstop offering much-needed prospect polish to a system mostly void of impact bats. Alonso could be Major League ready in two years but is currently blocked at first base by youngster Joey Votto. 11. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers (college selection) Smoak is one of my favorite players in the draft so I would like to see him take the field before the end of the year, but that may not happen. And what is Fields waiting for? Already a senior, he does not have the option to return to college but he could theoretically threaten to hold out until the just before the 2009 draft if he isn't given a Major League contract. Dykstra is the most likely first rounder not to sign due to a questionable physical that unearthed some concerns about his hip, which was injured in high school. If the Yankees can't get Cole signed, nobody can. Here is what we know so far (Signed Players): 1. Tim Beckham, IF, Tampa Bay Rays (high school selection) Tim Beckham shocked everyone by signing quickly but his adjustment to pro ball has been slow - which is not a concern at this point given his age. Skipworth is also struggling. Castro's .270/.365/.351 line in 74 at-bats is OK, but not great given that it is in Short Season ball. I am a little surprised Gordon Beckham did not sign until last night given that he had such a great season and surely would not repeat such a feat in his senior season. The White Sox could also use the middle infield depth. 12. Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland Athletics (college selection) College hitters Weeks, Wallace, and Cooper are off to fast starts. Weeks is hitting .297/.422/.405 in 74 A-ball at-bats. Wallace is hitting .344/.427/.534 in 131 A-ball at-bats. Cooper has been the fastest mover, having played at three levels and topping out in High-A ball. Currently, he is hitting .343/.409/.531 overall in 207 at-bats and was the second first rounder to sign a pro contract. Martin has been sidelined for the rest of the season with a knee injury. New York fans have to be disappointed with Davis' start, which includes a line of .235/.289/.307 and zero homers in 153 Short Season at-bats. Hicks is doing his best Ben Revere impression and is trying to make the Twins look brilliant yet again. His line, albeit in Rookie Ball, is currently .312/.412/.478 in 138 at-bats with 11 stolen bases to go along with 25 walks and 27 strikeouts. Lawrie recently signed and is currently in China playing for Canada's Olympic squad. Cashner has been brutal for the Cubs while making three starts in four appearances. He has a 10.80 ERA with 12 walks and five strikeouts in 5.2 innings. 21. Ryan Perry, RHP, Detroit Tigers (college selection) Havens is currently playing in Short Season ball and is hitting .263/.359/.500 with three homers in 80 at-bats. Hewitt is hitting .235/.298/.376 in 85 Rookie Ball at-bats. He also has just five walks and 39 strikeouts. Fellow high school pick Kelly is struggling in Rookie Ball with a line of .169/.200/.246 in 65 at-bats. Chisenhall is doing well in Short Season ball with a line of .272/.333/.426 and four homers in 195 at-bats. Perry has struggled with consistency so far in his pro career and has a 4.26 ERA in six High-A ball games as Detroit attempts to rush him through the system. He has allowed six hits and four walks in 6.1 innings. Friedrich has looked good for Colorado in the Northwest League with 27 hits and eight walks allowed in 31 innings. He has also struck out 42 batters. Surprise first round pick Gutierrez is doing just OK in High-A ball with 19 hits and six walks allowed in 16.2 innings. He has struck out just 11 batters but is inducing two groundball outs for each flyball out. Schlereth has yet to allow an earned run in three relief appearances.
Where Did They Come From?
Every season we bear witness to a bevy of surprise performances by professional baseball players. That is what makes Major and Minor League Baseball so much fun. Let's take a look at a surprise offensive performance from each of the three Double-A leagues: Luis Montanez, OF Luis Montanez is a familiar name to prospect watchers and Chicago Cub fans. He was the club's No.1 draft pick (third overall) in the 2000 draft out of a Miami high school as an infielder. Montanez started off his career on fire and hit .344/.438/.531 in 192 Rookie League at-bats that same season. Unfortunately he then spent the next five years in A-ball and did not sniff Triple-A until 2006 at the age of 24. Now 26 and an outfielder, Montanez has spent the season in Double-A Bowie in the Baltimore Orioles organization and was hitting .335/.385/.601 with 26 homers in 451 at-bats. What is most surprising is the power; Montanez has never hit more than 14 homers in a season and was never considered a double-digit home run threat having broken the .500 slugging percentage mark only once previously. The Orioles obviously liked what they saw from him as he was promoted to the Majors today for the first time in his career. He may have what it takes to be a valuable utility player at the Major League level with his versatility and athleticism. Kila Kaaihue, 1B Kila Kaaihue may be one of baseball's biggest teases. But he may also finally be for real after numerous seasons of one step forward and two steps back. The Hawaiian comes from a baseball family, as his father Kala Kaaihue played in the minors for 11 seasons and brother (also named) Kala Kaaihue plays for the Braves organization. Kila was selected in the 15th round of the 2002 amateur draft out of high school and spent the next three seasons putting up OK, but not great, numbers. That changed when he entered the hitters' haven of High Desert in 2005 and he slugged 20 homers and hit .304/.428/.497 in 493 at-bats. He headed up to Double-A, though, and struggled mightily hitting .202/.305/.303 in 327 at-bats. Kila then split the next year between High-A ball and Double-A with modest results. The 2008 season began with Kila repeating Double-A for the third time and things finally clicked for the 24-year-old. He hit .314/.463/.624 with 26 homers and 80 walks in 287 at-bats. Kila was recently promoted to Triple-A where he is hitting .375/.423/.750 in five games. He may have finally found the happy medium between selling out for power and waiting for his pitch. With Billy Butler disappointing to a degree, the door may be open for Kila. Manny Mayorson, IF Manny Mayorson's profile is a little different than the first two players in this article given his extreme lack of power, as seen by his career .317 slugging average. No, Mayorson is not going to be a star at the Major League level but his bat has improved enough over the last couple of years that he is no longer simply a good-field-no-hit player. Mayorson has always flashed Gold Glove skills at shortstop but he can play second and third base as well. Early in his career, Mayorson bounced around the low minors and struggled to hit .230 in his first five seasons. That changed, though, in 2005 when he hit .268/.309/.363 in his third go-around with the Florida State League. He then improved offensively each of the next two seasons although he was stuck in Double-A for the Jays both years. Finally free of the organization after the 2008 season due to Minor League free agency, Mayorson has come into his own, although he has spent most of the season in Double-A yet again. He is currently hitting .313/.372/.407 with 20 stolen bases, 26 walks (16 strikeouts) and 26 doubles in 297 Double-A at-bats. His average is good for ninth in the league. Earlier in the season Mayorson finally received a brief promotion to Triple-A where he hit .275/.321/.412 in 12 games. Yes there are some flaws in the Dominican's offensive game, but his combination of defensive skills and the ability to make contact make him an intriguing (and cheap) bench or part-time player option at the Major League level. Well, that is only three interesting stories in a Minor League system filled with players. I'd love to hear about some of the story lines that you find interesting as the 2008 Minor League season begins to wind down.
All Aboard for Beijing
The 2008 United States Olympic Baseball Team is, not surprisingly, loaded with prospects. The team, which also has its fair share of talented Triple-A veterans, will be one of the favorites to win gold when the Olympic Games get underway in August although the squad did not even qualify for the Athens Olympics in 2004. The winners of the 2004 Games were Cuba (Gold), Australia (Silver) and Japan (Bronze). The Cuban team featured Chicago White Sox infielder Alexei Ramirez. The Australian team included Seattle's Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Japanese team had a number of familiar names, including Kosuke Fukudome, Kenji Johjima, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Masa Kobayashi. Let's take a look at the 2008 U.S. Olympic Squad: The Pitchers: Brett Anderson, LHP | Oakland Athletics (Double-A) Jake Arrieta, RHP | Baltimore Orioles (High-A) Trevor Cahill, RHP | Oakland Athletics (Double-A) Brian Duensing, LHP | Minnesota Twins (Triple-A) Kevin Jepsen, RHP | Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A) Brandon Knight, RHP | New York Mets (Triple-A) Mike Koplove, RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A) Blaine Neal, RHP | Detroit Tigers (Triple-A) Jeremy Cummings, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays (Triple-A) Jeff Stevens, RHP | Cleveland Indians (Triple-A) Stephen Strasburg, RHP | San Diego State University (entering junior year) Casey Weathers, RHP | Colorado Rockies (Double-A) The Breakdown: Jake Arrieta, 22, has been dealing in his first pro season after sitting out the second half of last season due to contract negotiations after being drafted out of Texas Christian in fifth round. He currently has allowed 77 hits in 106 innings with 48 walks and 112 strikeouts. Oakland does not dip into the prep ranks as often as some other teams, but when it does the organization seems to make those picks count, with Trevor Cahill being a perfect example. The 20-year-old has been pitching at Double-A and has allowed 24 hits in 37 innings with 19 walks and 33 strikeouts. He also has a 3-1 ratio of ground ball outs to fly ball outs. Other interesting players on the pitching staff include Colorado's 2007 No. 1 draft pick Casey Weathers, who will help solidify the bullpen and soon-to-be college junior Stephen Strasburg, the only non-professional player on the squad, who is in the mix to go No. 1 overall in the 2009 amateur baseball draft. The Hitters: Lou Marson, C | Philadelphia Phillies (Double-A) Taylor Teagarden, C | Texas Rangers (Triple-A) Brian Barden, IF | St. Louis Cardinals (Triple-A) Matthew Brown, IF | Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A) Jason Donald, IF | Philadelphia Phillies (Double-A) Mike Hessman, IF | Detroit Tigers (Triple-A) Terry Tiffee, IF | Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A) Jayson Nix, IF | Colorado Rockies (Triple-A) Dexter Fowler, OF | Colorado Rockies (Double-A) John Gall, OF | Florida Marlins (Triple-A) Matt LaPorta, OF | Cleveland Indians (Double-A) Nate Schierholtz, OF | San Francisco (Triple-A) The Breakdown: The infield consists mostly of veteran players, including Mike Hessman, who currently leads the International League with 32 homers, four more than Brad Eldred. Terry Tiffee was a feel-good story in the first half as the vet batted more than .400 for much of the first two months of the season and currently sits at .375/.415/.559 and had a brief Major League cup of coffee with the Dodgers. Jason Donald is the biggest prospect name in the infield and he has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors as of late. He is currently hitting .308/.388/.509 in 338 Double-A at-bats. Matt LaPorta is probably the brightest star on the entire squad and many predict that he could hit 40 homers in the Majors one day. He was recently traded from Milwaukee to Cleveland in the C.C. Sabathia deal. LaPorta is really best-suited for first base or designated hitter but he won't embarrass himself too badly in the outfield for the U.S. squad. He has struggled since coming over in the trade with a .212 average and just one homer in 14 games, but he was hitting .288/.402/.576 with 20 homers in 302 at-bats for Huntsville (Milwaukee). When the Rockies drafted Dexter Fowler, the organization had to lure the raw athlete away from a basketball scholarship at Harvard and it's a good thing as the outfielder has come into his own this season. At Double-A, Fowler is currently hitting .337/.430/.514 with nine homers and 20 stolen bases in 395 Double-A at-bats. He also has 61 walks and 82 strikeouts. The U.S. team is certainly looking to put the disappoint of 2004 behind it and re-establish itself as one of the most talented countries in the world when it comes to stepping onto the baseball diamond.
A Look at the Triple-A Leader Boards
With the Minor League Baseball season about two-thirds of the way done (already!), there are some interesting names at the top of the leader boards. I thought it might be fun to take a look at the offensive players at the top of each league in Triple-A baseball, in terms of the triple-slash stats: average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Leaders for Average: As you probably know, the majority of players at the Triple-A level are fringe Major Leaguers and usually minor league veterans. Such is the case with the above three players, although Joe Thurston was once considered a pretty good prospect with the Los Angeles Dodgers, circa 2002 when he hit .334/.372/.506 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A. Well, it's six seasons later and Thurston has appeared in a total of 56 games. He is still talented and athletic enough to carve out a utility player role for a big league club. Thurston just needs a break. At the age of 30, Randy Ruiz has yet to have an official at-bat at the Major League level. Mike Cervenak, at the age of 31, made his Major League debut this season for the Phillies and had one at-bat before he was sent back down to the minors. In 360 minor league at-bats this season, Cervenak has walked just nine times. Neither player projects as anything beyond a possible pinch hitter at the Major League level.
Brett Gardner is easily the best prospect of the three, especially considering Dan Johnson has expired his rookie eligibility. Gardner has made good use of his patience by stealing 34 bases. He has, though, looked over-matched at the Major League level. Johnson and Matt Watson are both 'tweeners' with not quite enough power to play everyday at their positions but they also lack positional flexibility, which keeps them off a Major League bench.
Brad Eldred was a nice little off-season pick-up for the White Sox out of the Pirates organization. Unfortunately, there are already two guys named Paul Konerko and Jim Thome clogging up the first base/designated hitter roles in the Windy City. He's 28, but Eldred hits well against both right-handers and southpaws and he has performed well with runners in scoring position (.280/.378/.598). With 75 or so more at-bats, Mike Hessman is ahead of Eldred in both homers (by four) and strikeouts (by 42). The 30-year old has now topped 20 homers in a minor league season nine times but he has a career .230 average in more than 1,400 games. Jeff Bailey briefly sniffed the Major Leagues earlier this season but he struggles with off-speed pitches and looks like a 4-A player.
Leaders for Average: You have to give Terry Tiffee credit for even being in Triple-A, as a former 26th round pick by Minnesota. As a career .296 hitter in the minor leagues, Tiffee certainly knows how to swing the bat but his Major League career has been stalled by his lack of power at the hot corner: 84 homers in 3,647 at-bats.
It may not seem that impressive that Brian Myrow has just 33 Major League at-bats at the age of 31, but he was undrafted out of college and was signed out of independent baseball in 2001. Myrow could potential have a Mark Sweeney-type of career if given the chance, but he does not have enough usable power to play first base every day. Nelson Cruz has long teased organizations with his power potential but consistency has eluded him, much like his Major League career. With 31 homers, 21 stolen bases and an on-base average more than .400, though, Cruz is making a statement that he deserves another chance at the age of 28. Seth Smith lacks the power needed to play the corner outfield on a regular basis. He had a great fall in 2007 and showed talent off the bench by going 5-for-8 in seven games.
Cruz and D'Antona were both touched upon under the above two categories and it's obvious that they are both having excellent seasons. Both players have been hurt in the past by questions about their work ethics. Former top prospect Dallas McPherson has also breathed new life into his career with an excellent season that has seen him hit 32 homers in 314 at-bats. He has, though, also struck out 112 times. Finally healthy after struggling with a variety of injuries for the past three seasons, McPherson deserves another Major League shot at the age of 28. It will be interesting to see how much his numbers were inflated by his favorable minor league hitting environment.
The Future of Major League Baseball
The World roster won 3-0 over the U.S. roster on Sunday during the Futures Game. The annual prospects showcase featured some of the most impressive and talented prospects in professional baseball. Many of the names were familiar to fans of minor league baseball but there were also some lesser-known players to make an appearance on the big stage, which is the group we are going to look at this week. Wilkin Ramirez, 3B The Tigers do not have an overly impressive minor league system but Ramirez is one bright spot. He is currently hitting .303/.372/.545 in 297 at-bats with 14 homers and 19 stolen bases. Ramirez briefly saw some Triple-A action earlier this season but hit just .083 in 36 at-bats. With a career .310 on-base average, Ramirez needs to continue to improve his patience at the plate. Gerardo Parra, OF With the off-season trade of Carlos Gonzalez, Parra became the No. 1 outfield prospect in the system and has taken that status to heart. He doesn't offer as much power as Gonzalez, but Parra has a little more speed and may be a better defensive player. He is currently hitting .252/.314/.358 with two homers and six stolen bases in 123 Double-A at-bats, after beginning the season in High-A ball with a line of .301/.381/.413 with two homers and 12 stolen bases in 196 at-bats. Scott Campbell, 2B Campbell has the chance to become the first New Zealander to play in the Major Leagues. Currently at Double-A, he is hitting .332/.422/.451 with five homers and two stolen bases in 304 at-bats. Impressively, Campbell skipped over High-A ball at the beginning of the season. He currently has 46 walks and 47 stolen bases. The second baseman is just an OK fielder and cannot hit southpaws (.194), so he is likely a future bench or platoon player. Che-Hsuan Lin, OF Although just 19, Lin made the World roster based on his potential. The Taiwan outfielder, who was signed in early 2007, has hit below .250 in his two-year career so far. Currently at Low A-ball, Lin is hitting .248/.344/.368 with five homers and 27 stolen bases in 323 at-bats. Welington Castillo, C Castillo is no doubt looking to follow in Geovany Soto's footsteps. Split between High-A and Double-A ball in 2008, Castillo is hitting .291/.346/.422 overall with four homers in 199 at-bats. With the promotion of Soto to the Major Leagues and the recent trade of Josh Donaldson to Oakland, Castillo is now the No. 1 catching prospect in the system after beginning the season third on the depth chart. At the very least, his defensive abilities should ensure he will make the majors as a back-up catcher. Hector Rondon, RHP Rondon was a little-known prospect last season, although he combined on a no-hitter with a teammate in Low A-ball. He has solid control for his age, to go along with a low-90s fastball, curveball and fringe change-up. So far this season the right-hander has had no issues with High-A ball and has allowed 88 hits in 93 innings. He has walked 32 batters and struck out 101. Shairon Martis, RHP Martis was originally signed by the San Francisco Giants and later traded to the Nationals for aging reliever Mike Stanton. Martis won 14 games in 2007 but struck out just 108 batters in 151 innings. His sinker and plus change-up induce grounders but he will need to improve his breaking balls to succeed at the Major League level, especially since he has been allowing more fly balls this season. After 14 Double-A starts in 2008, Martis was promoted to Triple-A where he has made four starts. Greg Golson, OF Golson, a former 2004 No. 1 draft pick, is having a career year even though he is still showing no patience at the plate. The athletic outfielder is currently hitting .299/.333/.455 with eight homers and 17 stolen bases in 264 at-bats. However, he has just 14 walks and 80 strikeouts, which suggest his success will not last. Cliff Pennington, SS Pennington is another former No. 1 pick (2005, 21st overall) who is finally having some success. He fell off the prospect charts in 2006 and 2007 but started off 2008 by hitting .260/.379/.314 with 20 stolen bases in 204 Double-A at-bats. Promoted to Triple-A, Pennington is currently hitting .277/.408/.394 with two homers and five stolen bases in 155 at-bats. Impressively, he has walked 74 times and struck out 59 times. With his combination of patience and speed, Pennington should spend time in the Majors as a utility player. Chris Getz, 2B Getz also projects as a big league utility player. The hard-nosed infielder has significantly improved his stock this season with a Triple-A line of .303/.361/.452 with eight homers and seven stolen bases in 310 at-bats. The former fourth round pick out of the University of Michigan has a strong arm but limited range, which hurts his utility player prospects a bit. Dexter Fowler, OF Fowler was originally drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft as a raw project. He has finally taken that next step on his way to a solid big league career. Fowler is currently hitting .325/.412/.510 with nine homers and 16 stolen bases in 351 Double-A at-bats. The switch hitter is currently batting .438/.500/.671 from the left side. His 73 strikeouts, though, are on the high side. Taylor Teagarden, C While playing at the University of Texas, Teagarden was considered by many to be the best defensive catcher in all of college baseball. His bat, though, was a question. Not long after signing his first pro contract, Teagarden underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow and spent much of the next season at designated hitter. His bat improved and in 2007, split between High-A ball and Double-A, Teagarden hit .310 and slugged 27 homers. He is struggling a bit offensively this season with a line of .220/.333/.381 in 164 at-bats split between Double-A and Triple-A but his glove will ensure that he sees time at the Major League level before long. Casey Weathers, RHP It may be a little surprising that you haven't heard more about the eighth overall selection of the 2007 draft, but Weathers' popularity is hurt by the fact he is a reliever and has pitched just 50 innings since signing his first pro contract. Regardless, he has put up solid numbers and so far this season has allowed just 23 hits in 35.1 innings. He has walked 19 batters, which is high, but he has also struck out 40 hitters. His ground ball outs to fly ball outs ratio is also about 2-1, which should help him in Colorado. Right-handed batters are hitting just .168 against him. The future is certainly bright in Major League baseball, especially considering the above group of players were not even considered the cream of the crop at the showcase. You can read more about this week's Futures Game here.
2008 Draft First Round Update
The August deadline to sign 2008 draft picks will be here before you know it. To date, only one-third of the first round selections have signed on the dotted line with their respective clubs. First overall pick and high school shortstop Tim Beckham (Tampa Bay) is the highest pick to have signed, followed by prep catcher Kyle Shipworth (Florida) sixth overall. Here is a breakdown of all the confirmed signees thus far: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay, SS Beckham is currently playing with his brother - and double play partner - Jeremy Beckham in Rookie Ball. The higher drafted Beckham is off to a slow start and is hitting .200/.293/.200 through 10 games and 35 at-bats. Jeremy, who was taken in the 17th round out of Georgia Southern University, is hitting .273/.368/.364 in 13 games and 33 at-bats. He has already played three positions - third base, second base and shortstop - and has yet to make an error. Tim, who has two errors in four games at shortstop, is ahead of recent first overall picks in the fact that he signed quickly and will have more experience under his belt than most after the inaugural pro season. Kyle Skipworth, Florida Marlins, C Not surprisingly, Skipworth is also struggling early on with the bat. Through eight games, he is hitting .185/.214/.185 with one walk and 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. Interestingly, the left-handed hitting is 3-for-3 (1.000) against southpaws. He has caught two of five base runners who have tried to steal against him. Brett Wallace, St. Louis Cardinals, 3B/1B The highest drafted college player to sign so far, Wallace was fast-tracked to the Midwest League where he is hitting .350/.480/.650 through six games and 20 at-bats. He has one homer and five RBI. Although he played third base in his junior season of college, Wallace is expected to be a Major League first baseman due to an exceptionally thick lower half. Regardless, he has been playing the hot corner so far this season. Aaron Hicks, Minnesota Twins, CF In the grand tradition of raw Minnesota prep draft picks (ala Ben Revere), Hicks is off to a fast start in Rookie Ball. He is hitting .327/.407/.462 in 52 at-bats. The strikeouts are piling up, as he currently has 14. The switch hitter is batting just .111 against southpaws. David Cooper, Toronto Blue Jays, 1B Cooper was the initial first round pick to sign a pro contract so he has the most at-bats so far in 2008. In 21 games (85 at-bats), Cooper is hitting .341/.411/.553 with two homers and 21 RBI. The left-handed hitter is batting .412 against southpaws and the Jays plan to promote Cooper to High-A Ball at the end of July. Ike Davis, New York Mets, OF/1B Davis is off to a modest start in the New York Penn League with a line of .283/.283/.396 through 12 games and 53 at-bats. He has yet to hit a homer, but six of his 15 hits have been doubles. Davis has struck out 10 times and has yet to take a walk. So far, he has played all his games at first base. Reese Havens, New York Mets, SS Havens is off to a faster start offensively than teammate Davis. The former college shortstop is currently hitting .281/.410/.531 in 32 at-bats. He also has two homers and has walked six times, while striking out in nine at-bats. Havens has spent his time at designated hitter and could be headed behind the plate towards the end of the year. Anthony Hewitt, Philadelphia Phillies, SS Hewitt has yet to appear in a minor league game since signing, but he is likely headed to the Gulf Coast League Phillies (Rookie Ball). Hewitt is expected to be a long-term project. Christian Friedrich, Colorado Rockies, RHP Friedrich, who fell a bit in the draft, also has yet to appear in a minor league game and could be headed to A-ball with the Asheville Tourists. Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians, 3B Chisenhall, 19, is holding his own in the New York Penn League and is currently hitting .282/.356/.462 with seven doubles, two triples and a homer in 78 at-bats. He has walked and struck out eight times each, and has three stolen bases in as many attempts. It was also reported shortly before this article went to print that the Oakland Athletics signed first round pick Jemile Weeks (12th overall) and the Cubs locked up Andrew Cashner (19th overall). Check back after the signing deadline on Aug. 15 for another update, after the dust has settled.
Expansion Time: The Hitters
Yesterday, beginning with the pitchers, I started compiling an expansion team consisting of the best, non top prospects at the Triple-A level. Finding hitters for a MLB expansion team is a lot easier than finding pitchers, given the lack of quality pitching depth at the Major League level. With that said, I present the offence and defence for my club: Brayan Pena, C Brayan Pena was never given a fair shot in Atlanta and he was productive in the minors. He does a nice job handling pitchers and he is a switch hitter. Erik Kratz, C/1B Perhaps the least recognizable player on the team, Erik Kratz is one of few (if any) Mennonites playing professional baseball. He also has a lot of raw power and is an excellent defensive catcher, whom pitchers love throwing to. His upside is Doug Mirabelli. Brad Eldred, 1B Sure, he has more homers than walks, but Brad Eldred is leading the International League in that category. He may hit just .240 or .250 and strike out 130 times, but he brings much-needed power to this expansion team. Tug Hulett, 2B/3B Yes we share the same last name (although the Canadian Hulets dropped a 'T' when they came over the border from Pennsylvania many moons ago). Tug Hulett can really hit and has been an on-base machine throughout his career. He had a terrible start to the season after being traded to the Mariners organization from Texas, but Hulett has turned things around. He has a career .394 OBP and just needs to curb the strikeouts. Dallas McPherson, 3B/1B Dallas McPherson is a former top prospect from the Angels system, who is rebuilding his career with the Marlins. His power would combine nicely with Eldred's in the heart of the line-up, even though his 29 homers and .310 batting average are somewhat a product of his Triple-A hitting environment. James D'Antona, 3B, 1B, LF, RF, C James D'Antona has shown over the past three years that he can really rake (2008: .383/.423/.596)... and he also has some intriguing raw power that has never really been tapped in to. Add in his versatility, including the ability to serve as a third-string catcher, and you have a valuable part-time player. Cody Ransom, SS, 3B, 2B Finding a competent shortstop at the Triple-A level is challenging to say the least. Cody Ransom is not going to hit for average, but he has a little bit of power, versatility and he has a reputation of being a very good defensive shortstop. Brian Barden, 3B, SS, 1B, 2B Brian Barden has always hit well for average, but the knock on him was a lack of power. I have more than enough power on this team with Eldred, McPherson, etc. so Barden fits in nicely as a part-time infielder. Typically a third baseman, Barden has been holding his own at shortstop this season. Brad Nelson, LF, 1B Still only 25, it seems like Brad Nelson has been around forever, and he was even considered to be among Milwaukee's top prospects at one point. After struggling the past few years, Nelson is back on track this year and provides power and a solid approach at the plate that has allowed him to rack up more walks than strikeouts. He is currently hitting .326/.436/.540. Mitch Maier, CF, LF, RF, C, 1B, 3B I was a fan of Mitch Maier all the way back to his college career at the University of Toledo... when he has a full-time catcher. His relocation to the outfield has hurt his career and value, but his versatility could have a lot of value on my club. Maier also has just enough speed and just enough power to be interesting. Buck Coats, CF, RF, LF Buck Coats has a left-handed swing, solid defence and some speed, which makes him a valuable platoon player on my club. He can also play the infield in a pinch. He has a gamer reputation. Wayne Lydon, CF, RF, LF Wayne Lydon, a former prospect of the Mets, has always had a great set of wheels but he never embraced the 'small ball' approach and struck out too much, while not walking enough. A light bulb seems to have clicked on this season. His strikeout rate is down to 18.8 percent, compared to an average of about 22 percent over the previous three seasons. His walk rate is at 11.5 percent, compared to 9.2 percent last season. He is also second in the league with 34 stolen bases and has been caught just four times. Fernando Perez, CF, RF, LF Like Lydon, Fernando Perez brings a stolen base threat to the line-up of the expansion team. The Columbia University grad also has a great head on his shoulders. He hits for a solid average and is good for 30-40 stolen bases over the course of a full season. Perez strikes out too much (a running theme on this team) at about 25 percent, but he will also walk 12-15 percent of the time. Others considered: Robby Hammock, Mark Johnson, Brooks Conrad, Vinny Rottino, Shane Costa, Cory Sullivan, Dan Johnson, and John-Ford Griffin.
Expansion Time: The Pitchers
One of my favorite activities as a kid was to create Major League "expansion teams" with my baseball cards. My teams would not have been confused with any All-Star squads. I was never a fan of the super stars in sports, and always found myself gravitating to the Bill Pecotas, Mark McLemores and Randy Readys of the world. This activity occurred before my love of minor league baseball developed (thanks to the Internet) and the only prospects I knew of were the ones in my 1989 Score factory box set, which was ordered out of the back of a magazine. When Junior Felix made his Major League debut with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1989 (taking everyone by surprise, including the baseball card manufacturers), I cut his picture out of a magazine and created my own baseball card, complete with biographical information and statistics on the back. Felix was one of the members of my first expansion team. Today, I have access to thousands of baseball players on my computer. But let's narrow things down to about 600 players or so and create an expansion team with the best Triple-A players who are not considered among each organization's top 20 prospects and still have something to contribute at the Major League level. SP - Charlie Zink, RHP Who doesn't love a knuckleballer? Charlie Zink's value is at its highest since 2003, thanks to improved "command" of his knuckler. He currently has a 2.63 ERA and has allowed 78 hits in 102.2 innings of work. He is durable and still has some upside, which makes him a perfect fit for this expansion club. SP - Tyler Clippard, RHP Tyler Clippard has never been regarded as a top prospect because he has fringe-average stuff. The former Yankees prospect came over to the Nationals in a minor trade in the off-season and has continued to put up solid but unspectacular numbers. He currently sports a career 3.51 ERA and has struck out 699 batters in 670 innings. Clippard has also allowed just 7.83 H/9 in his career. SP - Kei Igawa, LHP Kei Igawa is a veteran of seven seasons in Japan's top league and really needs to get out of New York. He is not an overly expensive player, either, considering the Yankees have already paid out the $26 million to negotiate a contract with him. The expansion team would be on the hook for $4 million a year through 2011 but the marketing possibilities should outweigh that cost. Igawa has consistently put up solid Triple-A numbers, including 8.56 K/9. SP - Billy Murphy, LHP Bill Murphy has been around the block since being drafted in the third round of the 2002 draft by Oakland. He has always had pretty good stuff for a lefty but control issues have plagued him throughout his career. Regardless, Murphy is a smart pitcher, whom some have said will eventually make a very good pitching coach, which brings added value to my expansion team. If you take out three ugly starts in the last seven games (11 innings, 19 hits, 23 earned runs, 15 walks), Murphy is having a nice season: 81.2 innings, 71 hits, 38 walks, 72 strikeouts, and a 2.88 ERA. SP - Matt DeSalvo, RHP The former non-drafted pitcher has done well just to make the Major Leagues. Matt DeSalvo was a late addition to my team, as he takes the spot of John Parrish, who was just called up by the Toronto Blue Jays making him ineligible for this team. DeSalvo has put up OK minor league numbers despite fringy stuff but he needs to improve his control. He should serve as an OK fifth starter on this expansion team. RP - Randy Wells, RHP Randy Wells was originally drafted as a catcher but was converted to the mound after one minor league season. He was selected out of the Cubs' system in the winter of 2007 in the Rule 5 draft and actually made the Toronto Blue Jays' opening day roster. However, when the Jays faced a 40-man roster crunch, Wells was sent back to Chicago after making just one Major League appearance. He has OK stuff and gets his fair share of ground balls. Wells' ability to pitch as a starter or reliever is also of great value to an expansion team with some questionable starting pitching depth. RP - Wes Whisler, LHP A former two-way player at UCLA, a number of teams considered drafting Wes Whisler as a hitter due to his plus raw power. The White Sox, though, liked his left-handed arm on the mound. My expansion team wants a little bit of both, in the mold of Brooks Kieschnick. Whisler is probably never going to be an impact arm on the mound, despite being drafted in the second round. He currently has a career rate of 4.88 K/9 and has averaged more than 10 hits per nine innings. While being allowed to DH in his first pro season, Whisler hit .289/.308/.421 in 38 Low-A ball at-bats. RP - Ron Flores, LHP You can never have too much left-handed pitching, which is where Ron Flores comes in. Despite iffy control, Flores has always posted OK numbers and has a career rate of 8.36 H/9. RP - Mark Difelice, RHP Optioned to Triple-A just in time to make the team, Mark Difelice has been my radar for years, as a pitcher who can act a swing man and makes the most of his above-average command. In more than 1,200 minor league innings, Difelice has a rate of just 1.60 BB/9. In 13.2 Major League innings, he has yet to walk a batter and has 16 strikeouts. RP - R.J. Swindle, LHP R.J. Swindle is an interesting player who has been on my radar since his final college season at Charleston Southern University. The Canadian southpaw was drafted in the 14th round in 2004 by the Boston Red Sox. He is a soft tosser, but posted a 1.94 in his debut in the New-York Penn League and posted rates of 7.41 H/9, 0.71 BB/9 and 9.88 K/9 in 51 innings. Even so, he was released by Boston in the off-season and spent parts of the next two seasons in independent baseball before signing with the Yankees. He spent three-quarters of a season with the organization and posted an ERA below 1.00, as well as similar rates to those of his debut season. But again he began the next season in independent baseball before being signed by the Phillies organization in mid-2007. This season, he posted a 0.54 ERA in 11 Double-A games and was promoted to Triple-A where he currently has a 1.93 ERA in 18 games, along with just five walks and 32 strikeouts. Left-handers are hitting .129 against him. RP - Sergio Santos, RHP You may recognize Sergio Santos as the former top prospect (and former No. 1 draft pick) of the Arizona Diamondbacks, and later the Toronto Blue Jays... as a shortstop. Santos has one of the strongest infielder arms in the minor leagues but has proven for three straight seasons that he cannot hit Triple-A pitching. It's time to cut bait and move his powerful arm to the mound, where he features a mid-90s fastball, cutter and curve ball. The Jays organization took a look at Santos on the mound during side sessions at the end of last season. Tomorrow, I'll take a look at the hitters on my expansion team.
Giant Steps
It is easy to knock the San Francisco Giants organization for being unable to produce a productive, everyday position player in... well, let's just say years. But a quick glance at the minor league system shows that there are some very impressive numbers being put up by some intriguing pitching prospects. And the scouting reports even back up some of those numbers, while also raising some question marks for others. Prospects or Suspects? Madison Bumgarner, Left-hander Only 18 years of age, Madison Bumgarner is arguably the Giants most promising pitching prospect. The 6-4 left-hander currently sports a 1.77 ERA in 71.1 innings and has allowed just 58 hits. Even more impressive is the walk total: 11, with 84 strikeouts. To find a flaw in this 2007 first round pick (10th overall) would be nitpicking, but it would likely be his almost 1.00 ground out to fly out ratio. Oh, and for those of you who might be thinking the Sally League hitters might catch up to Bumgarner, hitters have scored just four earned runs in his last 10 starts (including three of those in a two-game stretch). It might be time for him to visit San Jose.
On the surface, Tim Alderson's numbers are not as impressive as Bumgarner's, but you have to keep in mind that the prospect is pitching in High-A ball, having skipped over Low A-ball entirely. Alderson was available to the Giants with the 22nd overall pick of the 2007 draft because there were enough teams worried about his mechanics to make him slide. But hey, people were somewhat critical of a guy named Tim Lincecum too. In 79.1 innings this year, Alderson has allowed just 75 hits, along with 25 walks. He has struck out 65 batters. Left-handers are hitting .293 against him, compared to righties at .203. Regardless, the Giants are ridiculously wealthy with young pitching.
You cannot argue with Adam Cowart's success, which includes a career 2.28 ERA in 324.1 innings. He also has allowed just 285 hits. Unfortunately, Cowart has struck out only 184 batters, which underlines concerns about his fringe stuff. The sidearmer has a mid-80s fastball but plus command and control. He could very well have a career in the majors, but it will likely come as a middle reliever. His ERA is reasonable, but Cowart has allowed 100 hits in 81.2 innings (a .306 batting average against).
Joseph Martinez is another right-handed pitcher in the system who has outstanding numbers but average stuff. His high-80s fastball and OK secondary pitches have been good enough to strike out batters at a rate of 7.52 in his career. The 2005 12th round pick is passing the Double-A test with flying colors and could be a No.4 or 5 starter at the Major League level. He currently has an ERA below 2.00 and has allowed just 68 hits in 78 innings and has struck out 51 batters.
The 2006 fourth round pick is your classic lefty... Ben Snyder has a mid- to high-80s fastball with a good change-up and an OK breaking ball. He has done nothing but succeed in pro ball, unlike his brother (and former first round pick Brian Snyder). Snyder won 16 games last year in Low A-ball but should have been promoted mid-season because he was obviously better than the competition. He currently has a 2.00 ERA in 85.2 innings and has allowed just 79 hits. He has allowed 18 walks and 73 strikeouts. Snyder is probably due for another promotion.
Henry Sosa dials his fastball up to the mid- to high-90s and has a power curve ball that has improved over time. He made a name for himself last season when he began the year in Low A-ball and posted an ERA of 0.73 in 13 games and 10 starts. He allowed only 30 hits in more than 60 innings. Sosa moved up to High-A ball for the second half of 2007 and was OK. He had off-season knee surgery and returned to High-A San Jose in 2008. Sosa appeared for the first time on May 25 and has made just six starts. So far, Sosa has a 1.55 ERA and has allowed just 22 hits in 29 innings. He has 32 strikeouts and has walked just seven batters.
Familiar Names at the College World Series
With the College World Series beginning this weekend, 58 players will be on display for interested fans of Major League Baseball teams. Those 58 players were drafted in the recent Major League Baseball Amateur Draft (June 5-6) and can begin negotiating with their respective club as soon as their school is eliminated from the tournament or has been crowned champion of the College World Series. Rice University leads the clubs with 11 players selected during the 2008 draft. Stanford University First Round (10th overall) Many felt Castro was a bit of an over-draft, although if you believe Paul DePodesta there is no such thing. Regardless, Castro is among the best college catchers, and certainly Top Three amongst the draft-eligible college catchers. He should do a nice job of handling Stanford's pitchers and controlling opponents' running games. First Round Supplemental (44th overall) A bit of a surprise first round supplemental pick by the Yankees, Bleich nonetheless has outstanding college statistics, even if his stuff is a little short by Major League standards. Other names to know:
First Round (fifth overall) Posey was in the running for the first overall pick in the draft but eventually fell to the Giants with the fifth overall pick. That goes to show just how valuable Posey is, especially to Florida State's title hopes. Despite his relative inexperience behind the plate, Posey is an above-average defender and a key offensive force. Other names to know:
First Round (eighth overall) Beckham is the offensive leader for Georgia and possesses power to all fields. He has also improved his ability to make contact and is a solid guy to have up with runners in scoring position. Not bad for a kid who went undrafted out of high school. First Round (20th overall) A college senior, Fields brings his experience to the back of Georgia's bullpen. He has above-average stuff but can struggle with his command. Fields could potentially go straight from the College World Series to Seattle. Other names to know:
First Round (seventh overall) The first baseman is an offensive monster who should be the key cog in the Miami offence, with a patient approach. It will be interesting to see how Cincinnati eventually works him into a lineup that already has Joey Votto. First Round (12th overall) Weeks to Oakland was a bit of a surprise but he has good bloodlines and a solid bat. He should provide a spark for Miami. His plus speed should distract a pitcher or two. First Round (27th overall) The surprise of the first round has stuff that is a little short for starting at the major league level but he is a proven winner at the college level. When his sinker is on, he's hard to hit in the air. Other names to know:
First Round Supplemental (45th overall) Price is a nice name to have at the end of the game for Rice, but he will likely head to the starting rotation when he begins his pro career. Other names to know:
Second Round (48th overall) The Pirates shocked baseball by being the team that took a flyer on Scheppers, who is currently dealing with a stress fracture in his shoulder. The injury is a shame for both Scheppers and Fresno State's World Series hopes. Other names to know:
Seventh Round (232nd overall) Federowicz is the biggest draft name on the UNC roster and even he lasted until the seventh round. He's a clutch hitter and has a winning attitude so he's a great player to have behind the dish in an important series like this. Other names to know:
Ninth Round (267st overall) Verdugo's competitive nature is more powerful than his arsenal, but he knows how to change speeds and keep batters off balance. Other names to know: Now that we know the players... Let the games begin!
Shadowing the 2008 Draft
Much like draft guru Jim Callis over at Baseball America, I conduct a shadow draft of the MLB Amateur Draft every season and have been doing so for more than five years now. This season’s draft was no different, so let’s take a look at how I did through eight rounds after allowing myself the 16th spot in the draft (Milwaukee’s actual spot), as well as a supplemental first round pick just for fun (the 38th overall selection, which belonged to Houston and, hey, we all know they weren’t going to use it correctly): Actually selected by the Milwaukee Brewers (16th overall) I had the opportunity to interview Lawrie before the draft, as well as speak to his father and two coaches, so I had a pretty good feel for him. After hearing about his domination of professional pitchers in the Dominican Republic, I am not worried about his bat at all. As for his lack of position, I think the bat will play just about anywhere and will play him at third base. I would have seriously considered Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Ethan Martin if they had fallen to me, but I am pretty happy. If you missed it, here is what we posted about Lawrie on draft day: Lawrie saw his value skyrocket as the draft approached, going from a second round or supplemental first round pick to a likely first rounder – possibly as high as 12th or 13th overall. The athletic Canadian’s stock was hurt by a lack of position but he convinced more and more scouts that he could stick behind the dish. Lawrie has a rocket for an arm as well as good hands and feet but his overall catching skills are raw. He is a little pull conscious right now but he has excellent bat speed, which helps created plus-plus raw power. Lawrie has international experience, having played for Team Canada, and is committed to Arizona State University. He recently played with Team Canada's junior team against MLB Dominican Summer League teams and dominated, hitting five homers in one day during a doubleheader. Others considered: Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Christian Friedrich
Actually selected by the San Diego Padres (46th overall) He is a ballplayer. You have to love that he played through a broken foot and his numbers have been quite good in college. I’m sure they would have been even better if he had been healthy and I consider him a first-round talent. The only worry I have is that he’ll hit for enough power at third base. Here is what we said about Forsythe on draft day: A stress fracture in his foot has slowed Forsythe this season and he may end up as one of the steals of the draft. He has good line-drive power and could develop more home run power as he matures. As evidenced by his BB/SO totals, he has tremendous control of the strike zone. Forsythe is known for his great intangibles and has been likened to Mike Lowell by Baseball America. He is a good athlete and has an above-average arm, so he could also play at second base or in the outfield. Others considered: Brett DeVall, Jaff Decker and Kyle Ladendorf
Actually selected by the Atlanta Braves (70th overall) I considered Spruill with my supplemental first round pick and was happy to get him in the second round. He’s a competitor with clean actions and good command for a high school pitcher. I am also big on pitchers with good fastball velocity that has sink (love those groundball outs). Here are our draft day thoughts on Spruill: Spruill can touch 93 mph but works more in the 88-92 mph range with his sinking fastball. He also has a breaking ball and a change-up. His command is good, as is his delivery. Spruill does, though, tend to lose velocity as the game wears on. An athlete with above average makeup and competitiveness, Spruill is committed to the University of Georgia. Others considered: Tim Melville, Tyle Stovall and Tyler Chatwood
Actually selected by the Houston Astros (109th overall) Why haven’t the Astros selected this kid already? Oh well, their loss is my gain. You don’t find many pitchers in the third round with a fastball that can touch 95 mph, with good control and two secondary pitches with plus potential. Here are our draft day thoughts on Seaton: Seaton can touch 94 mph with his fastball and has some good sink. His slider is plus at times and can hit 85 mph. Seaton commands both pitches well. He doesn’t use his change-up much. Seaton uses his smarts to succeed on the mound and he is athletic, which allows him to be a pretty good hitter as well. He may be tough to sign away from Tulane University where he could be a two-way player (Similar to Arizona’s Micah Owings). Others considered: Tim Melville and Chris Carpenter
Actually selected by the Detroit Tigers (133rd overall) OK, I am still looking for the best player available but I am feeling a little nervous about all these raw high school players so I am happy to see Jacobson available. He has a good, strong body and throws in the mid-90s when he pitches out of the pen. I am going to start him out in the rotation, though, and see how he does. I am hoping the extra work will help improve his curve ball and change-up. Others considered: Jason Christian and Ryan Westmoreland
Actually selected by the Philadelphia Phillies (166th overall) Hamilton may not have the greatest power but there is no doubt the kid can rake. I would be very happy to find Sean Casey or Mark Grace in the fifth round. Hamilton is one of the best pure hitters in the draft, has excellent gap power and is a potential Gold Glover. Others considered: Ryan Westmoreland, Joe Duran and Kenny Williams Jr. (Soooo just kidding)
Actually selected by the San Diego Padres (195th overall) I almost took Figueroa in my 2006 draft, but declined due to signability concerns and regretted it. He is a draft-eligible sophomore but I’ll do what is needed to get him to sign on the dotted line. When I interviewed Figueroa’s college teammate Matt LaPorta last year before the draft, the slugging first baseman said Figueroa was one of the most talented players on the club and would surprise a lot of people in the future (and he was a freshman at the time). His numbers are solid and he comes from a baseball family. Others considered: Colby Shreve, Kiel Roling, Cole St. Clair and Justin Parker
Actually selected by the Toronto Blue Jays (219th overall) For some reason I just got a nasty phone call from the Toronto organization after making this pick… But Thames, like Forsythe, is another player with considerable talent who inexplicably dropped due to an injury that is not a long-term concern. He had an amazing offensive season this year at Pepperdine, although I always worry a little bit about players who improve significantly in their junior year over their previous two seasons. I feel a bit better knowing he has hit OK with wood bats in the past. Others considered: Tim Federowicz, Jeremy Farrell and Jeremy Barfield
Actually selected by the Philadelphia Phillies (256th overall) I have secured four solid college players in a row so I feel comfortable taking another (very) raw high school player in Rodriguez. He had his fastball up to 92 mph as the spring wore on and I think there is more to be found in his 6-4, 200 pound frame. If the secondary pitches don’t come along, he could be a solid late-game reliever. Others considered: Antonio Jimenez and Ryan O’Sullivan
2008 Draft Day Spotlight: Brett Lawrie
Thanks to the timely hitting, Lawrie may be selected within the first 15 picks of the draft, and is easily considered the top draft-eligible amateur in Canada. According to Baseball America, Lawrie possesses one of the most pro-ready bats amongst the prep ranks in North America. Lawrie returned to North America from the Dominican Republic on Friday night. He took time out of his increasingly busy schedule to speak with Baseball Analysts from a hotel suite in Minnesota. MH: You just got back from the Dominican, where you were playing with Team Canada’s national junior team, didn’t you? Lawrie: Yes, we did. Yesterday. MH: And how long were you down there? Lawrie: We were down there for nine days. MH: Was that your first time in the Dominican? Lawrie: Nope, it was my third time, actually. MH: And you’ve done a similar thing each time with the club? Lawrie: Yeah, but I haven’t hit eight home runs like that before. MH: And how was the trip? Lawrie: It was fun. It was good to get some at-bats and get together with the guys again. We’re coming up to a world championship pretty quick… It was a fun trip and I think we bonded well as a team. We played unreal and we should have been 8-0 down there, but we were 7-1; so it was a good trip. We played real well as a team and we did what we needed to do for a win. No one was selfish - we just played hard. MH: Were you happy with your own personal results? Lawrie: I couldn’t be more happy. I was seeing the ball really well. I wasn’t going out there looking to hit home runs. I was just going up there trying to hit the ball squarely and the results happened. It worked out for the best. MH: Were you surprised by the success that you had? Lawrie: I wasn’t overly surprised, because I know I can do that. I do it in my batting practices and stuff. It was just a matter of doing it in a game situation. I was really just seeing the ball well; I didn’t have to adjust to anything. I just played and it worked out for the best. It was a fun time. MH: Did you notice a difference in the quality of pitching, compared to what you had been seeing? I mean, these were professional pitchers. Lawrie: Yeah, they’re professional pitchers… but I’ve seen them for a while now. They’re just other pitchers to me. I’m not overwhelmed by them. Maybe for some guys who are seeing them for the first time it’s like, “Oh God, I’ve never seen this before.” But I’ve seen it since I was 15, so while I was down in the DR it wasn’t overwhelming at all. It was just another day. MH: Have you been surprised by the increased interest from scouts? Your name is starting to come up a lot in the media now. Lawrie: A little bit, but I don’t really focus on that aspect, you know, hearing my name and seeing it in the papers, or on the computers or at Baseball America and stuff. I’m just working towards June 5 and I’m just going out and playing. I can’t control what people are saying and doing, so I’m just doing what I can; I’m on the field and playing my game. MH: What do you have planned for the rest of the week leading up to the draft? Lawrie: I have some workouts that I’m doing right now and hopefully I should be home [in British Columbia] on the fourth [of June]. MH: What do you plan to do on Draft Day? Lawrie: If everything goes as planned I’ll be at home... with my family. But I’m not too sure yet. MH: So you think you’ll be watching the draft on TV or online? Lawrie: Yeah, I’ll be watching it on TV. MH: Now, you’re committed to Arizona State, right? MH: What attracted you to that college program? Lawrie: Well, I’ve been to Arizona a number of times with my Langley Blaze team that I play with back home. I’ve had a chance to see the campus and I’ve gotten a tour. I’ve been all around and seen the campus, the field and the facilities. I’ve trained there in the off-season. It just felt right; you get that sort of feeling in your stomach that it’s right. In my mind, and in my family’s... we made a decision that it worked for me. So I signed the [letter of intent] and away we go. MH: Do you have a preference right now, whether to go pro or go to college? Lawrie: Yeah, my preference right now, obviously, is to go in the draft… but if something doesn’t go right college is a good back-up plan. But as of right now, I am 100 percent on the draft. MH: What is the most attractive reason, for you, to go pro now? Lawrie: I know I can hit over .400 against those guys when I’m 15, so who says I’m not going to do it when I’m 20, you know? I can play with those guys; I know I can. On almost every trip I’ve hit over .400 against them. Not much is going to change. I’m just playing and trying not to do too much… I’m just having fun. MH: Do you have a preference where you get drafted? Is that something you’re worrying about? Lawrie: It’s not a huge thing. Right now I’m not focusing on that sort of thing. I can’t control what people do. Whatever happens on the day, happens… I’m just ready to rock and roll. I’m ready to do what I want to do: I’m ready to play pro ball. MH: Do you have any specific teams that you hope to play for? Lawrie: Not really. I respect all the teams and I’m just looking forward to playing pro ball and I’m ready to go. MH: Are there specific teams that are showing a lot of interest in you? Lawrie: Yup, there have been. Obviously there have been a few, so hopefully they come forward and some other teams will probably come out of the hole at the end but we’ll just see on the day. MH: Did you have a team that you followed while growing up in B.C.? Lawrie: Not really. I’d rather play the sport than watch it, you know… If a game was on I’d just watch it. I wasn’t thinking about who was playing; I’d just watch the game. MH: I’ve read a lot of scouts' opinions about your ability. Everyone is enamored with your bat, obviously. But there are questions about your defensive abilities and lack of a position. Do you have a preference where you would like to play? Lawrie: Yeah, I can play the infield… I’ve played it with Team Canada. I can play second base, I can play the outfield; I can play anywhere and I’m really versatile. I can play third base real well. I’ve challenged myself in the last little bit with catching. As of right now I’m a catcher and I want to always have the ball in my hand. It’s been great. I’ve been able to control the pitchers and have a good relationship with them on Team Canada. I’m having fun and I want to catch. MH: Do you have any specific career goals at this point, aside from playing professional baseball? Lawrie: I really don’t. All I want to do is play in the big leagues and I want to get there as quick as I can. I don’t plan on staying in the minors for five years. I plan on doing it in a year-and-a-half. MH: Wow. Lawrie: Yeah. MH: You mentioned you really didn’t have any favorite teams, but did you have any favorite players while growing up? Lawrie: Everyone always has their favorite players. You have Alex Rodriguez… One of the guys I really like to watch is Russell Martin, a Canadian guy [with the Los Angeles Dodgers]. He’s a catcher. He played on the national team, the national junior team. I spent some time with him in the off-season and I trained with him. The national team coach loves him as well. He didn’t start catching until he came out of junior college, so I’m kind of doing the same thing that he did. I got a chance to see the way he lives and it’s a pretty cool life. I’m ready to go. MH: Did you learn anything specific from Russell? Lawrie: Yeah, we had lots of talks about stuff like conducting yourself on and off the field. From a catching standpoint we worked on blocking, and a whole bunch of stuff. I also hung out with Dustin Pedroia from the Boston Red Sox. I went over to his house for dinner and I saw how those guys conduct themselves. It’s a real treat and a pleasure to be in the presence of those guys. They took the time out of their lives to have an 18-year-old kid live with them. It was a fun time; it was cool. They’re just guys. They’re not people who are trying to be billionaires. They just like to have fun and do the things that guys do. MH: Have you had a chance to talk to people about what to expect with life in the minor leagues? Lawrie: Yeah, I’ve heard numerous things. Everyone says it’s a grind. There’s no doubt about it, but I’m ready to play. You have other guys battling for your position… and that’s where my competitiveness comes in. If I can do what I can do with Team Canada, there is no reason why I can’t do it with a minor league team. MH: Let’s write a scouting report on Brett Lawrie. What do you think are your strengths as a baseball player? Lawrie: I have the ability to be the spark on a team, whether it’s a line drive into the gap, a home run or something like that. I think I have a really good feel for the clubhouse and I like to mess around with the guys… I’m a good teammate and I can pick guys up when they’re down. I know when it’s time to get serious. My bat, though, is obviously going to carry me. MH: What part of your game needs the most work to get to that next level and to make it to the major leagues? Lawrie: I guess consistency. It’s important to have the right mind set and attitude day-in-and-day-out… MH: How long have you been playing baseball? Lawrie: I’ve played baseball all my life… I’ve played a number of different sports. I played basketball - I was a big basketball player from Grade 8 all the way up to Grade 11. I can also play golf. Baseball is the big thing, though, I’ve played since I was six or seven. But I’ve never played with my own age group. I’ve always played with guys that are older and I think it’s helped with playing against professional guys. MH: What made baseball win out over the other sports you’ve played, like basketball? Lawrie: Well, for basketball, you look at the guys in the NBA and then me and I’m only 6-0, 200 pounds. Those guys are 6-8. I guess, though, I just really didn’t have the same love for other sports and with baseball you have a guy like Dustin Pedroia who’s 5-8 and 160 pounds competing out there. There is no reason why this 6-0, 200 pound guy can’t get it done either. MH: Has your family been supportive in all this? Lawrie: Oh yeah, I could never have done it without them. My mom, my dad, my sister… Everyone is behind me and everyone is in my corner. We’ve had fun as a group and we’re all ready to go. My adviser has been there every step of the way as well. MH: When you’re not on a ball diamond, what do you like to do in your spare time? Lawrie: I’m just like any other kid and I’m still in high school. I’ve got my graduation coming up and I’m looking forward to that. I just like to hang out with friends and I like to watch TV and play a few video games here and there. I like to hang out with the family and just have fun. MH: Do your friends get on you about all this attention you’re getting? Lawrie: Oh yeah, sometimes they do. It’s fun for them as well because they get to hear all this stuff. It’s a fun time and you only go through it once in your life. It’s been a real treat, all this stuff that’s gone on. My friends have been behind me as well and we have fun talking about it and we joke around. MH: If you were not looking at a career as a baseball player, what profession do you think you’d go into? Lawrie: I haven’t really thought about that, because I’ve always wanted to be a baseball player. I haven’t looked into other fields. MH: I have one more question for you… and it might be a tough one so take your time. Why should a Major League Baseball club use its No. 1 pick on Brett Lawrie? Lawrie: A team should use its No. 1 pick on me because I think I have that spark. I look at Dustin Pedroia as an example. He is the clubhouse. From what I’ve heard from all the other big league guys, he’s the spark in that clubhouse. I can see myself being that guy too. I know I can get it done and I have the tools, the abilities and the right mindset. I have a good head on my shoulders and I think I can help a ball team win. In the end it is about winning and good team chemistry helps you win a ring. MH: Well, that’s all my questions. Is there anything else that you would like to add? Lawrie: Nope. I’d just like to thank you for taking the time. MH: No problem. It’s been a real pleasure to speak with you and I look forward to seeing how Draft Day plays out for you.
Team Canada’s national junior head coach Greg Hamilton spoke briefly with Baseball Analysts: MH: What are Brett's strengths as a ballplayer? GH: He has tremendous athletic confidence and total belief in his ability to excel at the highest levels of the game. [He has] no fear in any situation, and plus bat speed, which produces power to all parts of the ballpark. [Brett has] excellent hands to hit and the ability to square the ball up at the point of contact. MH: What does he need to work on to take his game to that 'next level?' GH: Brett needs to define himself defensively. He has the potential to catch, play second, third or left in the professional game. MH: Do you think he can be a catcher at the pro level and what do you think his best defensive position would be? GH: Brett has caught for less than one year and at present catches the ball consistently and displays balance in receiving. He has enough arm strength to catch and once he polishes his footwork and blocking skills, he will be an average defender with an above-average bat. Having said this, I truly believe he can play professionally at any position… Again, he has no fear of a challenge and has plenty of athletic ability to develop necessary defensive skills at all listed positions. MH: What impressed you most about Brett's performance in the Dominican Republic? GH: He is a high school player hitting with a wood bat and dominating professional pitching. I have never seen a player hit five home runs in a doubleheader from foul pole to foul pole. He is an exceptional hitter with an athletic confidence that is rarely displayed at such a young age. Another baseball man that has seen Lawrie play and develop is Doug Mathieson, the head coach of the Langley Blaze of British Columbia’s Premier Baseball League, which is one of the top 18-and-under premier baseball programs in all of Canada. The club has already produced a number of professional baseball players, including Cincinnati’s Kyle Lotzkar (a 2007 supplemental first round draft pick) and Philadelphia’s Scott Mathieson. He also was kind enough to speak with Baseball Analysts regarding Lawrie’s potential. MH: What are the biggest improvements that Brett has made in recent months? DM: Brett has always been a standout player. His biggest improvement is being more consistent and working hard in the off-season on his strength. Brett has an above-average arm, is an above average runner, has power and bat speed and is very athletic. MH: What improvements does he need to make? DM: Brett will need to hone his defensive skills at whatever position he is given. His biggest strength is that he can hit. MH: How does he compare talent-wise to some of the other former Blaze that you coached, who are now playing in pro ball or college? DM: Brett is the best hitter we have had on the Blaze in our history. His bat could play at a high level now. MH: Are you surprised that he is now being considered as an early to mid first round draft talent? DM: No, he has really risen since our spring training trip in March, where he hit .550 against nine college teams and three pro teams and he has continued to pick up the pace, hitting a double and a homer at our scout day in front of 80 scouts, including cross checkers and a few directors.
The Most Impressive Draft Haul of 2007
A number of teams had the benefit of multiple draft picks in the first two rounds (plus the supplemental first round) of the 2007 draft, including the Texas Rangers (six picks), Toronto Blue Jays (seven picks), San Diego Padres (eight picks), and San Francisco Giants (six picks). With apologies to all the rest, the Blue Jays have had the greatest success (so far) with the extra picks: The club's college-centric approach is well known around baseball so it was a bit of a surprise (and a relief from fans’ perspectives) to see the club take a risk or two with some raw, but toolsy, players - as well as some prep position players. Stats: First round (16th overall) 2007: .230/.332/.321 | 165 | 38 | 3 | 13.2% | 28.5% | .304 (Gulf Coast League) 2008: .272/.349/.420 | 169 | 46 | 1 | 10.6% | 25.4% | .360 (Midwest League) Kevin Ahrens has not been flashy this season but he’s been consistent and his teammates say he has the “it” quality to be a star. The switch hitter has hit .262 against southpaws and .276 against right-handers. He has only one homer, but the Midwest League is perhaps the toughest full-season league to homer in. Ahrens does have 14 doubles and four triples. Defensively, he has made a smooth transition from shortstop to third base.
First round (21st overall) 2007: .254/.298/.377 | 228 | 58 | 3 | 5.8% | 24.6% | .325 (New York Penn League) 2008: .312/.337/.527 | 186 | 58 | 8 | 3.6% | 18.8% | .350 (Florida State League) J.P. Arencibia has been the hottest hitter in the system and has batted .422 in his last 10 games with 19 hits, three homers and 18 RBI. The right-handed batter is hitting only .210 against left-handers. The catcher has also shown improved defensive skills, which should put to rest any talk of moving him off the position.
Supplemental first round (38th overall) 2007: 1.27 | 49.2 | 36 | 10.15 | 1.99 | 0.18 | .204 | 2.05 (New York Penn League) 2008: 1.74 | 10.1 | 6 | 9.58 | 1.74 | 0.87 | .171 | 2.91 (Florida State League) 2008: 4.63 | 23.1 | 21 | 8.87 | 3.86 | 0.77 | .242 | 3.76 (Eastern League) The Jays organization has been aggressive with promotions this season for top picks, including 2006 first rounder Travis Snider (who is now at Double-A at the age of 20) and Brett Cecil. The left-hander was slowed this spring by a wonky shoulder and he still is on a restrictive pitch count. Regardless, he dominated High-A ball (after skipping a level to begin the year) and was going well at Double-A before back-to-back poor outings in late May. He should join Shaun Marcum, David Bush and Casey Janssen as college relievers that the Jays have successfully converted to starters.
Supplemental first round (45th overall) 2007: .187/.274/.241 | 166 | 31 | 2 | 10.8% | 26.5% | .242 (Gulf Coast League) 2008: .248/.365/.383 | 141 | 35 | 2 | 15.6% | 34.0% | .363 (Midwest League) Justin Jackson was considered raw coming out of high school, but his father Chuck Jackson played in the majors, so he has been around the game all his life. He hit .323 in April but has slumped to .190 in May and also missed time with an injury, which may have contributed to his struggles. Jackson has shown the makings of a solid leadoff hitter, if he can tone down the strikeouts (34 percent), as he has scored 37 runs in 40 games and has stolen eight bases in nine tries. He has also played outstanding defence at shortstop.
Supplemental first round (56th overall) 2007: Did Not Play 2008: 8.69 | 29.0 | 36 | 4.66 | 5.90 | 0.93 | .306 | 5.79 (Midwest League) Trystan Magnuson, a college senior, was the biggest reach of the first few rounds for the Jays and the Canadian might have been a signability pick. He was a closer at Louisville and the Jays have been working him as a starter. He has allowed 16 runs in his last three appearances, spanning seven innings, because of poor control. For a college senior, he is still very raw.
Second round (85th overall) 2007: .246/.340/.437 | 183 | 45 | 10 | 12.4% | 21.9% | .263 (Gulf Coast League) 2008: .250/.328/.378 | 164 | 41 | 1 | 10.4% | 23.2% | .320 (Midwest League) John Tolisano was considered an advanced high school player and he led the Rookie League with 10 homers during his debut season. Homers are much harder to come by in the Midwest League but Tolisano has not let that phase him, as he has been consistent all season. His power can be seen in the five triples that he has so far. The switch hitter is batting .225 against lefties and .258 against righties.
Second round (88th overall) 2007: .216/.303/.284 | 176 | 38 | 1 | 11.1% | 35.2% | .327 (Gulf Coast League) 2008: .289/.373/.289 | 45 | 13 | 0 | 11.8% | 28.9% | .406 (Midwest League) Eric Eiland was the rawest of the Jays top picks and he struggled in his debut. He was recently recalled from Extended Spring Training and has been busy showing that he belongs with the rest of the top 2007 draft picks. He has five extra base hits among his 13 hits and has gone four-for-four in stolen base attempts. The left-handed batter is hitting only .167 against southpaws. Toronto also received good value from some later picks in RHP Alan Farina (third round), LHP Brad Mills (fourth round), LHP Marc Rzepczynski (fifth round), RHP Randy Boone (seventh round). If not for depth issues, all four pitchers would be in High-A ball right now, rather than A-ball. In 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers possess the greatest number of draft picks in the early rounds of the draft - six picks in the first two rounds. The New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins have four each. It will be interesting to see which organization makes the most of its extra selections. Be sure to check back all next week for our ongoing pre-draft coverage. Also, check us out on Draft Day, June 5, as we blog live during the draft. We’ll also provide post-draft coverage.
The Good and Bad of A-Ball
We read an awful lot about the Salt Lake Bees after the club's record-breaking month of April. Now two-thirds of the way through May, it is a good time to take a look at how some of the other affiliates around Minor League Baseball are doing. As such, let’s take a look at the good and the bad from A-ball. California League The Giants organization certainly isn’t known for its prospects, but the club still has the best record in the California League. Catcher Pablo Sandoval is leading the team in hitting with a line of .409/.469/.708. He’s hitting right-handed pitching at a .455 clip. The 21-year-old switch hitting catcher looks a little bit like current Giants catcher Bengie Molina with a 5-11, 245 pound body. 2007 first round pick Tim Alderson is having a nice first full season in the minors. He is currently 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA. The 19-year-old hurler has allowed 46 hits in 48.2 innings and has walked 19 and struck out 36. Not bad for a 2007 draftee out of high school who skipped A-ball and went right to High-A ball. The Ports are led by two high 2007 college draft picks: first baseman Sean Doolittle and shortstop Joshua Horton. Doolittle is hitting .368/.454/.693 with 12 homers in 163 at-bats, which isn’t bad for a player who was supposed to be more Mark Grace and less Paul Konerko. Horton is hitting .308/.425/.390 and has 28 walks compared to 25 strikeouts in 146 at-bats. He does not have power (zero homers) or speed (zero stolen bases) so he needs to hit for a high average to have an impact. Right-handed pitcher Trevor Cahill, a 2006 first round pick out of high school, is currently 5-1 with a 2.96 ERA. He has allowed only 36 hits and 14 walks in 54.2 innings. He has struck out 68. Outfielder Peter Bourjos, 22, is doing his best to help the Quake turn its season around. He is hitting .335/.367/.468 in 158 at-bats. He has also stolen 24 bases in 26 attempts. He needs to walk a little more (he has only eight) given his style of play. Former 2005 second round pick P.J. Phillips has had trouble turning potential into reality but could be a late bloomer like brother Brandon Phillips of the Reds. The infielder is hitting only .238/.269/.369 in 168 at-bats and has only four walks to go along with 49 strikeouts.
Chris Marrero, a 2006 first round draft pick, has found Potomac to be a difficult place to hit. He is currently hitting only .236/.329/.419 in 148 at-bats. The Potomac pitching has been more successful. Ross Detwiler, a 2007 first round pick, is currently 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA. He has allowed 40 hits in 39.1 innings of work, along with 21 walks and 41 strikeouts. Jordan Zimmermann, taken in the second round in 2007, had a 3-1 record and a 1.65 ERA in 27.1 innings before a promotion to Double-A. Starter Cory Van Allen, a fifth round from 2006, was also promoted to Double-A after going 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in 27.1 innings. Third baseman Jim Negrych is making the most of a bad season for Lynchburg. He currently has a line of .372/.444/.468 but lacks the power necessary to play the position long-term with only one homer in 156 at-bats. The 23-year-old University of Pittsburgh product was drafted as a second baseman in 2006. Daniel Moskos, the club’s 2007 first round pick, is holding his own. He has a 3-2 record and 4.89 ERA in 42.1 innings. He has allowed 41 hits and 10 walks. He has struck out 28 batters.
Fort Myers has some interesting pitching prospects, although many are allowing a few too many hits to fall in. Tyler Robertson has an ERA of 3.04 in 50.1 innings. He has allowed 55 hits, although only two of those have left the yard. The 20-year-old lefty has walked 19 batters and struck out 49. Jeff Manship, 23, is a workhorse-type pitcher who won 15 games last season between Beloit and Fort Myers. Back in Fort Myers thanks to the Twins’ solid pitching depth, Manship is 5-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49.2 innings. He has allowed 49 hits and 16 walks. He has struck out 51 and is probably due for a promotion. Alex Burnett, 20, has a 3.18 ERA in 45.1 innings but has allowed 52 hits. He has walked 13 batters and struck out 24, while allowing just one homer. St. Lucie has few true prospects playing on the squad this season. It has by far the worst record in A-ball and the club was pounded by Dunedin for 15 runs on Monday night. First baseman Lucas Duda, a seventh round pick from 2007, has been one of the more impressive bat for St. Lucie. The 22-year-old is currently hitting .288/.367/.407 in 177 at-bats but the left-handed batter has a .152 average against southpaws. Starters Nicholas Carr and Eric Niesen are a combined 1-10 on the season. Despite allowing 50 hits in 43.1 innings, Carr has also struck out 42 batters. Tobi Stoner is the only pitcher on the team (four appearances or more) that has averaged fewer than one hit per inning pitched and he has allowed 26 hits in 26.1 innings.
Third baseman Darin Holcomb is a long way from the majors but he is raising some eyebrows. He currently sports a line of .329/.397/.532 with seven homers in 173 at-bats. He also has walked 18 times with just 16 strikeouts. The 22-year-old was drafted in the 12th round of 2007 out of Gonzaga University. Everth Cabrera is a 21-year-old Nicaraguan with his currently hitting .295/.388/.382 in 173 at-bats. The second baseman has walked 24 times to go along with 32 strikeouts. He has stolen 27 at-bats in 31 tries and looks like the next Corey Wimberly or Eric Young Jr. Right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, 20, has also been making people sit up and take notice. So far this season he is 6-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 61 innings. He has allowed 41 hits, 17 walks and has struck out 54 batters. He is also average more than 2.5 groundballs for every flyball. Houston is another organization that is not known for its prospects and Lexington is suffering as a result. Scrappy Matthew Cusick is leading the club with a line of .351/.436/.568 in 148 at-bats. He has walked 22 times with only nine strikeouts. Although he has a 1.004 OPS, he has little power and doesn’t run much, which limits his ceiling. Houston is slow at promoting prospects and the 2007 10th round pick out of USC should probably be in High-A ball. Sergio Severino is one of Houston’s few pitching prospects but he also turns 24 later this season. He has a 2.27 ERA in 47.2 innings and has allowed 30 hits and 21 walks. Severino, a southpaw, has struck out 50 batters. The Rome offence is being led by 18-year-old offensive monster Jason Heyward, who was also Atlanta’s first round pick out of high school in 2007. Heyward is hitting .320/.359/.469 in 175 at-bats. He has hit five homers and stolen eight bases, which has helped him score 33 runs. That’s not bad for a teenager who is 6-4 and 220 pounds. Despite a 1-6 record Chad Rodgers has had a nice season. The 20-year-old lefty has a 3.47 ERA in 46.2 innings. He has allowed 45 hits and 12 walks to go along with 43 strikeouts. Freddy Freeman, an 18-year-old first baseman is showing power potential with 16 doubles and four homers. He has a line of .278/.318/.456 but needs to improve his patience. He has walked only nine times in 169 at-bats this season. He walked only seven times in 224 at-bats during his pro debut last season.
The youngest team in the league also sports the best record. The offence is led by Ian Gac, a slugging first baseman. He has a line of .346/.459/.738 and has hit 14 homers in 130 at-bats. He has struck out 33 times with 22 walks. Gac also has 40 RBI. Pitcher Neftali Feliz, obtained in the Mark Teixeira deal, has a 2.53 ERA in 42.2 innings of work. The 20-year-old has allowed only 28 hits, along with 16 walks. He has struck out 49 batters. Blake Beavan, a 2007 first round pick out of high school, began the year in extended spring training. Since moving up to Clinton, the right-hander has posted a 4.50 ERA in 20 innings. He has allowed 21 hits, one walk and struck out eight. Peoria is a team suffering from a lack of prospects. The top hitter is Jovan Rosa, a first baseman who is hitting .305/.372/.482. The 20-year-old has just two homers in 142 at-bats. Catcher Josh Donaldson was a supplemental first round pick in 2007 who caught people’s attention by hitting .346 in short season ball last year. He has struggled mightily in 2008, though, and has a line of .196/.252/.318 and is hitting .176 against righties.
Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: NL
The 2007 season saw a number of exciting players come into both the American and National leagues. The junior league received some intriguing young pitchers, while the senior circuit welcomed some promising offensive players. We are more than a month into the 2008 season so now is a good time to take a look at how the 2007 rookie class, now a collective group of sophomores, is doing. Are you as curious as I am to see how many of the promising 2007 rookies have been bitten by the dreaded sophomore jinx? Last time I looked at the American League, so let's have a look-see at the National League. 2007 NL Rookie of the Year Voting (10 points or more): Milwaukee 3B Ryan Braun 128 Colorado SS Troy Tulowitzki 126 Houston OF Hunter Pence 15 Arizona OF Chris Young 10 Others: Kyle Kendrick (Philadelphia, RHP), Yunel Escobar (Atlanta, SS), James Loney (Los Angeles, 1B) Let’s take a closer look at those players: Hitters: AB AVG OBP SLG OPS+ Ryan Braun You had to know Braun wasn't going to maintain the torrid pace he set in 2007. He's improved his strikeout rate by five percent, but his walk rate has dropped to 4.9 percent, which just isn't acceptable. A move from third base to left field has improved his value to the team, even if his offensive numbers are a little off. A little more protection from teammate Prince Fielder might also help Braun's 2008 numbers.
Before he went on the disabled list, Tulo was looking like the poster boy for the sophomore slump. A lot of it was probably bad luck, as he had a .172 BABIP and his 2008 walk rate was similar to 2007, while his strikeout rate was actually significantly lower.
Pence's 2008 numbers are a little close to what people expected of him, based on his minor league and college numbers. His on-base rate is disappointing and his strikeouts have risen a bit in 2008. He'll likely put up pretty good numbers for a while, and maybe even appear in an All-Star game or two, but he's not going to be a star.
With every passing day Young is looking more and more like the second coming of Mike Cameron. That's not a bad thing, but you get the feeling there is more ability just waiting to be tapped into. Young has intriguing power and plays nice defence but he just can't get that average above .250. Maintaining a .330-plus on-base average (his walk rate is up five percent) would also go a long way to increasing his effectiveness.
A lot of people felt Escobar's rookie season was a fluke but he is maintaining his rates quite well and has made everyone forget about Edgar Renteria. Escobar is also showing some improvements with his patience at the plate and he has been driving in more runs. The list of successful major league Cubans is not a long one and Escobar could find his way to the head of the pack before long.
He's not sexy and he's not loaded with power like some other first basemen but players like Will Clark, Mark Grace and Don Mattingly still had pretty nice careers at first base. Even though he doesn't hit the long ball, Loney has driven in 27 runners this season and could develop into a reliable RBI man.
Kendrick was surprisingly effective last year but a lot of his success was as smokescreen and his overall numbers were not that good. This season has been much of the same but with an uglier ERA. He's allowing more hits and more walks, but striking out a few more batters. However, his strikeout rates are still well below average and suggest he's a career No. 5 starter.
Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: AL
The 2007 season saw a number of exciting players come into both the American and National leagues. The junior league received some intriguing young pitchers, while the senior circuit welcomed some promising offensive players. We are more than a month into the 2008 so now is a good time to take a look at how the 2007 rookie class, now a collective group of sophomores, are doing. Are you as curious as I am to see how many of the promising 2007 rookies have been bitten by the dreaded sophomore jinx? Let's have a look at the American League today. 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Voting (10 points or more): Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia 132 Tampa Bay OF Delmon Young 56 Kansas City RHP Brian Bannister 36 Boston RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 12 Los Angeles OF Reggie Willits 11 Others: Hideki Okajima, Josh Fields, Joakim Soria Let’s take a closer look at those players: Dustin Pedroia Pedroia is the type of player that doesn’t have too many highs or too many lows; he’s just incredibly consistent and a great complimentary player to the big boppers in Boston. He should be good for quite some time and could be one of those players who gets better as he ages, in the Mark Loretta mold.
The more I think about it, the less I like the idea of Young being a Minnesota Twin. The Twins, in general, aren't exactly known for being a patient team; they have always employed athletic, toolsy players that like to hack (Torii Hunter, Jacques Jones). Young might be better off on a club that forces him to be more selective. You can’t be a superstar with his type of approach (there is only one Vladimir Guerrero).
Willits has been hurt by the Angels’ position player depth and really hasn’t received a fair shot at following up on his solid rookie season. Regardless, he probably played over his head in 2007 and is a solid fourth outfielder, similar to the Cubs’ Reed Johnson.
Already stuck at Triple-A (and hitting .240), Fields has been sidelined by patella tendonitis, which never a pleasant injury for baseball players (just ask Mark McGwire). Continued low averages and on-base percentages will likely continue to hinder his major league success.
Bannister is probably a little over-hyped right now, which is hard to imagine for a major league pitcher that throws in the upper 80s and plays for Kansas City. He should probably be a solid starting pitcher for the next few years, but the loss of even a couple of miles an hour on the ol’ fastball could spell doom, regardless of how smart or observant he is.
With a repertoire like Matsuzaka’s it is hard to believe that he's been pitching away from contact, but that is exactly what he's been doing OR his command is really, really off. Ironically, as of the writing of this article he leads the majors in fewest hits allowed per nine innings… So what is he worried about? Someone needs to remind him that he is pretty darn good.
Okajima was an almost invisible free agent signing out of Japan before the 2007, but he has been absolutely outstanding coming out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. But we also have him to thank for teams going wild by signing mediocre Japanese middle relievers prior to the 2008 season; some of those have worked out, but others haven't.
There were quite a few scouts that felt Soria would be one of the more successful Rule 5 picks in 2007, but I don't think there were many that thought he’d be quite this good. Soria has helped to solidify a previously inconsistent (OK, terrible) Royals bullpen. He shows no signs of slowing down.
Are the Salt Lake Bees Worth All the Buzz?
As just about every minor league fan knows by now, the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) have been very, very good this season. The club was 23-2 in the month of April. The Bees have had a little tougher going in May with a 2-4 record and the club is now 25-6, but still eight games up on Tacoma in the Pacific North Division. In April, the Bees collectively were first overall in average (.320), on-base percentage (.395) and runs scored (190). It was also second in slugging percentage (.506) next to Albuquerque, and third in homers (34) behind Albuquerque and Omaha. We know what the team is doing, so let’s take a look at some of the individual players: SS/3B Brandon Wood (.273/.333/.614) IF Sean Rodriguez (.250/.429/.531) |