Even though the St. Louis Cardinals had the best record in major league baseball last year, the preponderance of fans outside Missouri were in a show me state of mind. The Chicago Cubs were the consensus pick to win the National League Central and the Houston Astros were generally thought to be the next best team in the division.

Not only did the Cardinals win 105 games but they beat the Los Angeles Dodgers three games to one in the NLDS and staved off the Astros by winning the final two games of the NLCS. When the Redbirds were swept by the Boston Red Sox in the World Series, the disbelievers came out in droves once again to pronounce that the NL champs were nothing but a one-year fluke.

The team's starting pitchers weren't any good, the naysayers proclaimed. It didn't matter that the Cardinals had the best ERA in the majors last year. Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, Jeff Suppan, and Woody Williams? C'mon, the team doesn't have an ace in its deck of Cards.

As far as the offense was concerned, everyone agreed that Albert Pujols was a stud but how many thought Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen were just good fielding, good hitting types who happened to string together career years? The fact that Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen finished in the top five in the voting for Most Valuable Player was mentioned but not really glamorized.

Including the postseason, the Cardinals had more wins (112) and a better winning percentage (.633) than every other team in the majors last year. The sabermetric community even seemed skeptical despite the fact that the Cardinals had the best Pythagorean record (100-62) in the big leagues in 2005. The team scored 855 runs and only allowed 659. St. Louis also led the NL in Rob Neyer's Beane Count.

More people should pay attention to Neyer's concoction (derived by summing a team's ranks in home runs hit, walks drawn, home runs allowed, and walks allowed) as it relates to identifying the best teams in a particular year. The Beane Count nailed both World Series teams last year and singled out the New York Yankees in 2003 and the San Francisco Giants in 2002. The system missed out on the Anaheim Angels in 2002 and the Florida Marlins in 2003, teams that made their way to the World Series via Wild Card berths and hot streaks.

What is the Beane Count telling us this year? Well, Boston is leading the AL and St. Louis is atop the NL--just like in 2004. The Cardinals, in fact, have the best record in baseball this year.

We heard a lot about the Dodgers when they got off to a 12-2 start. We were also made aware of the Chicago White Sox when the South Siders had a 16-4 record. But who is touting the Cards and their league-best .714 winning percentage as the season concludes its first month?

How are the Cardinals doing it this year? Smoke and mirrors once again? I'm afraid not. The Redbirds have allowed the fewest home runs in the majors and the second lowest walk total in the NL. That's not a bad combo if you are trying to piece together a winning ballclub. In the meantime, Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen & Co. are tied for fourth in the league in home runs and ninth in walks.

Only three of the 13 Baseball Analysts panelists picked the Cardinals to win the National League pennant and just one, ahem, selected St. Louis to win it all. Now I know it is early, but I think it is high time the Cardinals get a bit more respect given that they have arguably been the best team in baseball now for over a year. Red Sox fans may have something to say about that but nobody else can even come close to making such a claim.

Let's give credit where credit is due by acknowledging that Walt Jocketty, Tony LaRussa, and Dave Duncan are right behind John Schuerholz, Bobby Cox, and Leo Mazzone when it comes to management expertise and success. Only the Braves and Yankees have won more divisional titles during the past five years than the Cardinals.

LaRussa has won 10 divisional titles since 1983, including four league championships and one World Series. He has managed three different ballclubs for 27 consecutive seasons. Duncan has been associated with six Cy Young Award winners throughout his career--Vida Blue, Jim Hunter, and Jim Palmer as a catcher; and Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley and La Marr Hoyt as a coach.

Given the strength of the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Angels, and perhaps the Orioles and White Sox, the road to the World Series in the American League looks a lot more treacherous to me than the path the Cardinals need to navigate in the National League. I'll say it again, I think the Redbirds are the team to beat in 2005. If you are suspicious, let me (Beane) count the ways for you.

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Over the weekend we will see the month change and April become a memory, giving us a good time to look back at the month that was. For me, I was curious to see how well the month either validated or disproved the many predictions I made before the season. Most of these predictions were upon my return from my week-long Arizona trip, in which I saw ten teams in five days. Below are a few of the quotes I printed when returning from Arizona, with a recap about how smart -- or how stupid -- those comments look now.

Barry Zito was a mess...His curve was a mix between rarely being implemented and seldom finding the strike zone. And his fastball is just not good enough to get by hitters without the threat of his trademark hook...which isn't good news for an A's team dependent on his regression to Cy Young form.

Well, in fact, Barry Zito is a mess. In five starts the southpaw has a 6.60 ERA, with a sparkling 0-4 record. Zito's best start, an eight-inning two run game occured on one of the many nights in which the A's offense stagnated, giving him his third loss. In each of his other four starts he has allowed four runs, including getting blasted for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings against the lowly Devil Rays. The problem for Zito has been both the walk (11) in 30 innings, and even more so, the long ball. Zito still is having problems getting his fastball by hitters, which of course does not allow that fantastic curve to be established. The A's are hanging in there without the man they pinned their rotation hopes on, and his turnaround could help the A's prove naysayers wrong.

On the other hand, Jamie Moyer looked fantastic...The A's looked thrown off by his style.

Moyer has been quite the opposite of Zito this year, and has thrown off many a hitter with that unique style. Moyer has a 2.53 ERA, and has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a game. That's the good news, but the bad news is that AL West teams have shown to know him a little better than other teams. In his five starts this year, two have come against AL West teams, and they have accounted for six of his nine earned runs this season. But in 20.2 innings against AL Central teams, Moyer has allowed just three runs. This would bode well if Moyer played for a team like the Tigers or White Sox, but he will face AL West teams in about ten starts this year. This includes his next start, against the A's, the team he baffled in Spring Training.

Awful day for Keith Ginter. Two strikeouts, and some terrible defense up the middle. Ginter is a swallowable infielder on a bad team but a bench player on a good one.

The bad play has continued. Not only did Ginter lose the battle for second base, but he has not gotten steady playing time since Bobby Crosby got injured. Ginter has hit just .161 this season, allowing Marco Scutaro to step in as an everyday middle infielder. Ginter's play has even spawned Blez wondering aloud whether he might get traded when the 2004 AL Rookie of te Year returns. To his credit Ginter has yet to make an error in eight games at second, currently sporting the best zone rating of his career. Expect his bat to get better and his glove to get worse, but I can't promise Ken Macha will gain any confidence in him. A trade might just be best for Ginter, though I'm not quite sure Beane can get talent close to what he gave.

Also impressing me was Miguel Olivo and Justin Leone. Olivo should have a good season, and Seattle fans will like that he does everything (even run) pretty solidly.

Not quite. Olivo is currently hitting .189/.232/.245 this season, though he still is getting three at-bats for each of Dan Wilson's one. Dave Cameron wrote a great post talking about what Olivo needs to do to turn it around, and some sign of that has happened the last couple games. In his last three, Olivo has four hits in 11 at-bats, with two doubles, two walks and just one strikeout.

"Watching him hurts my shoulder." That's what my Dad said of Huston Street's 5/8 delivery, though his pitches were impressive.

Well, that's the last time I'm trusting my Dad. I'm kidding, though in this short season Street has quickly become one of Macha's most trusted relievers. Fifteen strikeouts in 12.2 innings, with just a 2.84 ERA in ten games. Street won't have the wins or saves, the sexy pitching statistics, to win the AL Rookie of the Year, but it's going to be hard to find players more valuable to their teams. Street has had one bad game in ten, a tradeoff that Beane and Macha will be able to swallow over the course of the season. My one question will be Street's endurance, as he has never come close to breaching the 60-70 game mark before.

At the plate, Weeks looks like a smaller version of Gary Sheffield, with a very similar stance. He also has a batting eye like Gary...He's an exciting talent, and should be pushing Spivey off soon.

On face value, Weeks numbers in AAA do not look too awe inspiring: .264/.346/.542. The huge increase in power that Weeks has shown is a fantastic sign, and shows a bit of validity in the Sheffield comparison. Weeks season numbers have been on the rise, as Weeks has been red-hot lately. In his last five games, Weeks is 8/20, hitting two home runs, a triple and a double during that span of games. With Spivey's OPS sitting at just .652, we might be seeing Weeks sooner rather than later as I predicted.

I've drawn criticism for my dislike for J.J. Hardy in the past, and I'll admit that Royce Clayton comparisons might be too much. His swing proved to me that twenty home run seasons are probably too much, but he looks like he makes tons of contact, runs well and has a great arm. I underrated him.

Alright, this is a notion that I should have stuck with. Hardy is having a tough time adjusting to Major League pitching, as I guessed that he would. Seeing him in Spring Training and being impressed has given me the lesson that I can't let one game impress me enough to rid me of my gut reaction. Hardy is hitting just .140 through 16 games, where Clayton was at just .170 after the same point. Neither had an OPS above .450 at this point, so the comparison is looking a little more apt. I think Hardy could still be a serviceable shortstop with the Brewers, but I do still believe that the ceiling many outlets anoited him while he was in the minors was a bit too much.

One of my predictions for 2005: bad things for Lyle Overbay.

OK, this is one where my gut and eyes really agreed. And in both cases, I seem to have been a little bit wrong. Overbay currently has an OPS of .851, with a fantastic .420 OBP. While Prince Fielder slowly adjusts to AAA pitching in Nashville, it appears that Overbay is truly proving that Mark Grace comparisons aren't too crazy after all. This is great news for the Brewers because in one year's time they will likely attempt to move Lyle, and an .851 OPS will go a much farther way to getting a good package than what I would have predicted.

Expect the combination of age, leaving Leo Mazzone, and moving to Arizona to make the Russ Ortiz signing look about as good as the Bartolo Colon one did a year ago.

While I guess the Colon analogy still applies since Bartolo had a modest 4.07 ERA after April last year, I have been impressed with Russ this year. Part of his success equation, I think, was not switching leagues as Colon did. Ortiz, with a 3.60 ERA, has not been an ace to the Diamondbacks by any means, but he has been one of the club's most effective starters. No one is ever going to believe that Ortiz got the raw end of his contract, but if he keeps pitching like this, I think the Diamondbacks could live with it. But given his K/BB ratio, which given has always been pretty suspect, I'm not too confident that Ortiz won't turn into Colon like I suspected in March.

I was equally as low on Ryan Drese. Before watching him pitch, Drese would have been one of the first people I thought likely to regress in 2005. After watching him, I'm not so sure that he isn't Orel Hershiser's best success yet...Drese is succeeding as a starter, but if that falls apart down the road, a move to relief might be the best career move.

Another one of those examples of when I let one apperance change the entire feeling I had about the player entering the game. Like most everyone else, it was pretty obvious to me before going to Arizona that Ryan Drese's season last year was a little over the level that he should be suspected to pitch at. But watching Drese dominate the Diamondback lineup, including great hitters like Troy Glaus and Shawn Green, I started to second guess myself. Wrong I was. Drese currently has a 6.25 ERA, and is making the Rangers look like fools for expecting Drese to take one of the top two spots of that rotation. Unlike we noted about Spring Training and last season, Drese's problems have been the first three innings, as opposed to his endurance. I don't even have a guess on why this would be, but I know that the pitching-needing Rangers aren't going to have a lot of patience with Ryan.

Brandon Lyon came into the game for the seventh and eighth innings, and he looked fantastic. Seeing as though Jose Cruz Jr. and Shane Nance are the only things left from the Curt Schilling trade, it is likely important to management for Lyon to have a good year.

This is the prediction I am most pleased with. I nailed this one, especially considering that I picked Lyon up in time to get all ten of his saves in fantasy baseball, before dealing him in the last couple days. I think Lyon, like when he played in Boston, will be a little more susceptible to National League hitters when he faces them for the second and third time. His power sinker has worked well in April with an ERA under two, and the league-leading save total, but we can only guess how much longer that will last. A combination of hitters getting the book on Lyon, and a decrease in the Diamondback way of play will leave me shocked if Brandon gets 25 more saves this season.

Derrek Lee also looks like he will continue his streak of poor Aprils, as he struck out in two of his three at-bats.

We go from a genius prediction, to an idiotic one. Continue his streak of poor Aprils? Try .416/.489/.714 through April 25! Lee has been far and away the most dangerous Cubs hitter this season, accomplishing the feats I had expected of him a year ago. Whether he will regress into the consistent player he has been for seasons remains to be seen, but there is no question that Derrek has the hitting ability to keep a .298 ISO going. I'm going to guess that the .416 average goes down a bit by September, but given a little more production from the rest of the lineup, that will be a pill that Cub fans don't mind swallowing.

On the opposite end, Rich Harden looked great in this game. His curve was on, and the main reason for his six strikeouts. He needed only 75 pitches in five innings, even given his struggles in a five-hit third inning. His fastball is pretty hittable, but if he hits his spots to set up the breaking ball, he will succeed.

Harden has been succeeding, and while this is extremely premature, would be foolish to throw away when talking about AL Cy Young candidates. Harden has stepped up to be the ace of an A staff that was depending so heavily on Barry Zito, and Harden may end up being better than any of the Big Three. This guy has been a force in every start this year, currently sporting a 2.10 ERA, and has left us no reason to think that trend will end. His splitter is as good as any pitch in the Majors, maybe, and will look even better once Jason Kendall gets used to catching it. Harden is a unique talent that will make Bay Area fans forget the Hudson name, no matter what Timmy is doing in Atlanta.

Consider it true, as Everett looked as good in uniform as I have seen him in a long time. He also was very in tune at the plate, doubling twice and walking once before being removed after five innings. Given his good condition and U.S. Cellular Field, Everett might not be a bad gamble in the late innings of fantasy drafts this year.

Saying that Everett has been the gamebreaker that I thought he would be is an exaggeration, but Carl has definitely been valuable to the White Sox. Using Scott Podsednik is left field puts a considerable onus on Everett, who has been left with the sole responsiblity of protecting Paul Konerko in that lineup. When Frank Thomas gets back we can only hope that Everett does not lose playing time to the likes of Poddy and Jermaine Dye, but I have no doubt that he will. But again, I'm sure this will work out well for Ozzie Guillen, who cannot do anything wrong this season.

Jon Garland...yuk.

While Brett Myers has impressed me this season greatly, finally showing the ceiling we predicted years ago isn't too stupid, his performance pales in comparison to Jon Garland this year. I think that I, like a lot of people, had closed the book on Garland last year when he had another average-at-best year, the only type he had since becoming a South Sider. Garland's inconsistency has been a trademark over the years, and we can only hope he doesn't fall back into the player that will pitch a gem and then not make it to the fourth inning. There is no way he wins 20 games or has a sub-3.50 ERA this year, but any step in the right direction might make me open up that book again.

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Marlins manager Jack McKeon has taken some heat lately from a few "experts" for letting his pitchers throw complete games early in the season.

I've known Jack since 1988 and I can tell you one thing: He couldn't care less what the experts think as long as his team is winning. When you consider the basis of his baseball philosophy, you'll understand what makes McKeon so different than most of today's "feel good" managers in the age of "The Athlete Knows Best."

McKeon and I collaborated on his new book: I'm Just Getting Started this past year. We spent a lot of time together and the former catcher was able to detail how he became the manager he is today at the age of 74, the oldest manager to ever win a World Series.

One of his strongest beliefs is that a young pitcher must pitch extended innings to build up a strong arm. He does not like the way many of today's pitchers are "babied" by management. He believes in a different kind of Moneyball.

"Moneyball is basically computer stats," Jack says. "I think my style is more observation and going with your gut.

"I never learned my baseball out of a book. I learned it by doing it and watching the best in the game do it. I go all the way back to Branch Rickey."

Now that is going back, but McKeon is not just some oldtimer afraid to change his ways. He will change, if he feels it's for the better.

"Some of the stuff in Moneyball has some merit," McKeon says. "There's no question about it, but you can't just go by numbers. How far back do the numbers go? Has the player changed? It doesn't take into consideration the mental approach the player has that day.

"What if his kid's in the hospital, maybe he is not focused as he normally is because of that," McKeon notes. "Something like that changes the entire picture. You have to go with your gut as well as your stat sheet. When you see me sitting in the corner of the dugout, I'm using a computer all right, the computer in my head."

The image of McKeon sitting alone in that corner of the dugout has become a staple of Marlins' broadcasts. That isn't just Jack McKeon sitting there, that's 50 years of managerial experience sitting there. McKeon fell in love with some of the teaching tools that Rickey brought to the game.

"When he was trying to teach a guy to throw a curveball down low and just off the plate," McKeon says, "he would lay a $20 bill right there on the ground. He'd say, 'If you hit the $20 bill, you got it.'

"Now that's Moneyball. That got the pitchers focused. They were focused on what their job was to do -- hit that $20 bill," McKeon says. "They had to follow through and come down through their motion. It was a great incentive. It was not only a fun thing, it was a teaching tool. I've never forgotten that."

McKeon knows the same drill would work today with one minor change. "You'd have to use a $100 bill," he says.

There were other Branch Rickey pitching drills that McKeon loved. "Rickey was one of the first guys to put up strings for the strike zone as a teaching tool, which I copied and used to teach Jim Kaat when I had him in the minors," McKeon says in the book. "Rickey would get two poles and put strings across them and he would make it the size of the strike zone. He would have the guys hit the inside corner, the outside corner, up and down, all around the plate. It was a great way to teach location. Rickey didn't know it at the time, but he developed the first K Zone."

As for Kaat, McKeon, who has a story on everyone, has one for the lefty, who is now a broadcaster with the Yankees. The so-called experts might want to listen closely.

"Jim Kaat was the first player that I was around on an everyday basis who you could tell was going to be a star," McKeon explains. "When I met him he was just an 18-year-old kid in Missoula, Montana. He pitched 251 innings that season. It was only a 17-man roster and we only had seven pitchers on the team. That would never happen today, the way young pitchers are babied."

If a minor league manager allowed a young pitcher to throw 251 innings in this day and age, he'd be fired, but McKeon saw something in Kaat that was special. He saw how Kaat knew how to work a batter and change velocity on his off-speed pitches, something many of today's pitchers never grasp.

"Jim was one of the most fascinating young men that I've ever managed," McKeon says. "This guy had tremendous instincts, excellent knowledge of pitching, tremendous work habits and tremendous focus.

"You had to understand this young man," McKeon explains. "In today's game, if you used a radar gun you wouldn't sign him, but he had great knowledge of pitching. He could paint the black on the inside. He could paint the black on the outside. He changed speeds. For an 18-year-old kid he had tremendous knowledge of pitching.

"Here, I'm his catcher, I'm a player-manager, and I see that this guy can pitch in the big leagues. He knows how to pitch. He knows how to win."

McKeon also gave his young players an opportunity to work out of jams, something that would help them later on in their careers.

Recalls Kaat, "I remember Jack coming out to the mound and saying, 'Well you got into this mess, let's see how you're going to get out of it.'"

By taking that approach, Kaat says, he learned how to pitch out of trouble.

Because of all of Kaat's ability, McKeon knew the young man was going to be a star, something no one else in the organization knew.

"Charlie Dressen was just let go as manager at Washington, he came out along with Calvin Griffith and Joe Haynes,'' McKeon says of the late-season scouting trip of 1958. "Calvin was the president and Joe Haynes was the vice president and pitched a number of years in the big leagues and was considered a pitching guru in the organization. Now, a lot of clubs have gurus. Maybe someday I'll even become a guru. Anyway, the three of them come out to Missoula one night to see our team play.

"Kaat was pitching and he pitched a two-hit shutout and I think we won 2-0, and after the game we went out to have a bite to eat. I sat down with those guys and said to Joe Haynes: 'What did you think of Kaat?'

"He said, 'Not enough stuff to pitch in the big leagues.'

"I said, 'I tell you what, I'll make you a bet. I'll bet you a steak dinner that within two years he pitches in the big leagues.'

"When I believe in somebody," McKeon adds, "I put my faith in them."

McKeon has a lot of faith, considering he goes to Mass every day.

"That's what I did in Game 6 of the World Series with Josh Beckett," McKeon says. "I wasn't going to give that game away. I knew Josh could win it. And he did."

Joe Haynes took the bait and the bet.

A year later Kaat started the season at Chattanooga. "On July 1st he was leading the league in strikeouts and he was having a great year down there so they bring him to the big leagues," McKeon recalls. "He pitches his first game in Chicago on, I think, July the 3rd.

"I got on the phone to Joe Haynes and said, 'Hey, where's my steak?'"

Turns out that Kaat, the pitcher with "not enough stuff to pitch in the big leagues" pitched 25 years in the big leagues.

"I don't think I ever got that steak dinner but I was just happy that Kitty got to the big leagues and there he was 25 years later with 283 victories," McKeon says proudly, taking a victory puff of his ever-present (except for nine innings) Padron Cigar.

Not only did Kaat go on to win those 283 games, he completed 180 of of his 625 starts (or nearly 30%). Imagine that.

Kevin Kernan is a columnist with the New York Post. He has covered sports for 28 years and during that time has not once smoked a cigar. I'm Just Getting Started is published by Triumph Books.

[Additional reader comments and retorts at Baseball Primer.]

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After the last two weeks when we let our eyes do the talking, it is back to the numbers here at Baseball Analysts. For those of you that pegged Edgardo Alfonzo and Victor Diaz to each have an OPS over 1.000, take a bow. On the other hand, some of us thought Andruw Jones' hot Spring Training might produce a little more than a .182/.244/.312 line.

Before regression to the mean kicks in, we thought it would be fun to point out several early season outliers. Rich begins with a look at the group with big numbers in April, citing some breakouts; some overachievers; and some plain, old superstars...

There's no need to look beyond Clint Barmes to realize how much Coors Field helps hitters. The rookie shortstop's on-base plus slugging average at home (1.383) is nearly two times his OPS on the road (.723).

To Vinny Castilla's credit, the Washington Nationals third baseman is hitting at home (.367/.441/.767) and on the road (.353/.389/.529) despite not having played a single game at Coors Field this year.

Did you think Miguel Tejada's 150 runs batted in were a fluke last year? Well, he has 25 RBI in 22 games in 2005. I know it is (really) early, but I still find it interesting that Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, and Hack Wilson are the only players ever to knock in 150 or more runs in consecutive seasons. Gehrig and Ruth each turned the trick three years in a row. Of note, these historical seasons were all turned in from 1929-1937.

If Tejada drives home 100 runs in 2005, he will tie Alex Rodriguez at six for the most consecutive years of reaching the century mark while playing shortstop. A 25-HR season will give the 2002 AL MVP six in a row, tying A-Rod and Cal Ripken, for second place one season behind Hall of Famer Ernie Banks.

Except for a downtick in 2003, Tejada's HR/AB ratio has gone up every year since his rookie season in 1997. The ironman shortstop is working on his fifth straight campaign of playing in every game and has played 159 or more games every year since 1999.

Speaking of A-Rod, where does one start and stop in talking about his accomplishiments? He is on pace to reach 400 career home runs before the age of 30. By comparison, Barry Bonds had only 259 homers at the end of the year in which he turned 30. Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth had 342 and 309 dingers, respectively, at that same age.

With his three home runs on Tuesday night, Rodriguez has now hit seven on the year but that is only good for a five-way tie with Paul Konerko, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Brian Roberts. Which player looks out of place in this group? Roberts, who had hit just 12 HR in over 1,500 at bats going into 2005, has already gone deep two more times than his previous career high.

Middle infielders Roberts and Tejada are the main reasons Baltimore is leading MLB in runs, hits, home runs, total bases, batting average, slugging average, and OPS.

Turning to pitching, Roger Clemens has only given up one run in 28 innings this year. The Rocket has seven Cy Young Awards, the same number of MVPs in Barry Bonds' trophy case. If Roger were to win another Cy Young, he could retire in peace and say "Eight is Enough."

Minnesota's 5.25:1 strikeout/walk ratio is more than two times better than any other AL team and almost twice the next best team in the majors. Thanks to Clemens (32/6), the Houston Astros are leading the NL at 2.86:1. According to the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia, the Arizona Diamondbacks staff in 2002 had the highest K/BB season of all-time (3.10). The Sandy Koufax-led Dodgers of 1966 are the only other team with a better than 3.0 ratio.

Lastly, what do you make of the trends in ESPN's Juice Box? Improved pitching, weaker hitting, the lack of Barry Bonds influencing the numbers, insignificant, or just too doggone early to tell?

                2002   2003   2004   2005 
Homers/Game    1.043  1.071  1.123   .951 
Runs/Game      4.618  4.728  4.814  4.632 
Doubles/Game   1.793  1.816  1.837  1.734 
Slugging Avg    .417   .422   .428   .411

As Rich sees the cup half full across the Major League statistical landscape, Bryan sees it a little more half empty. He'll take you through the errors, inept hitting and awful pitching happening across the Majors...

While this statistic was first brought to my attention by the guys over at Metsgeek, I find it amazing that Mike Piazza has thrown out just one baserunner in 21 attempts this year. You think he will be hitting the road to the land of the DH in 2006?

It might be best for Mr. Piazza to call it a career after this season because his legacy as the best-hitting catcher of all-time is becoming a bit tarnished. His OPS could be on the decline for the sixth straight year: 1.012, .957, .903, .860, .806, .746.

In fact, this seems to be an easy year for basestealers. Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, A.J. Pierzynski, Victor Martinez, Jason Phillips, John Buck and Mike Matheny have a combined CS% of just 18.7%. It seems as if Mike Barrett and Ivan Rodriguez are the only people throwing anyone out.

Speaking of bad defense, there are currently four players with five errors this season: Alfonso Soriano, Jose Valentin, Julio Lugo and Jhonny Peralta. While the three veterans have taken over 130 innings each to compile five, Peralta has played in less than 115. He's also not inspiring a lot of faith in Major League Equivalencies (MLEs). After hitting .323/.382/.489 in AAA last year, his OPS is just .633 this year.

Peralta is combining to make a pretty awful left side, as Aaron Boone has the worst average of qualifying Major League hitters at .129. Although half of the recovering third baseman's hits are of the extra-base variety, eight hits in 62 at-bats speaks for itself. Please Eric Wedge, go with Casey Blake and Alex Cora.

While Boone has the lowest average, he is not one of the two hitters sporting an OPS below .400. All-Star Jack Wilson is hitting just .157 and has one lone double in the extra-base hit column. Even worse is Yadier Molina, who in 56 at-bats this season has eight hits, one extra-base hit, and one walk.

Even after outdueling Roy Oswalt on Monday for his first win of the season, Oliver Perez still has allowed the highest OPS of qualifing pitchers (.926). Six homers and 18 walks in 26.2 innings will do that, which is not what the Bucs want to see from someone they considered signing to a long-term extension this winter.

With Perez leading the way, Pittsburgh is one of six teams that has allowed opposing hitters to have an OPS higher than .800. Can anyone name the other five? Colorado is easy, Tampa Bay wouldn't be hard to guess, and Philly and Cincy both play in tiny stadiums. But the Yankees? Yuck.

To continue the trend of Pittsburgh's awfulness, Matt Lawton has the lowest batting average against southpaws. At an .095 clip, Lawton continues to prove he should be platooned. Since 2002, the 7.75 million dollar man has hit lefties to the tune of a .681 OPS.

The worst against right-handers? Well, it is battle within the Oakland A's right now, as Charles Thomas (.000 in 22 AB) is handily holding off Eric Byrnes (.065 in 31 AB). This is surprising for Thomas, a left-handed batter who had six times more AB against righties last year. For Byrnes this is nothing new, who since 2002 has an OPS far inferior against right-handers (.746) than lefties (.904).

Byrnes and Thomas are just two players struggling in the horrendous A's offense that has left Blez pretty disgusted. A win against the scorching White Sox on Tuesday saw Oakland end a team scoreless streak at 26 innings. You have to feel for Joe Blanton, my Rookie of the Year choice, who has a 1.75 ERA in four starts, but no wins thanks to awful run support.

So there you have it, a brief look at the good and bad statistics in the Majors. Can Baltimore stay this hot but Oakland this cold? Will Barmes and Castilla slow down while Cleveland's left side catch up? Could Mike Piazza throw out Rich stealing third? Statistical oddities are part of baseball, but with clubs just about one-eighth through the season, expect some of the sample size numbers to get ironed out in due time.

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News Item: On Saturday, April 23, 2005, the Chicago White Sox beat the Kansas City Royals 3-2 in 10 innings.

OK, so what? I'm sure this was one of those box scores you skipped over in the Sunday newspaper, hardly shocked baseball's best team beat baseball's worst. In fact, the most surprising part of the game, you thought, was that it lasted ten innings.

That's too bad. Because what you missed, for the first nine innings at least, was the early showings of Allard Baird's long-term rebuilding process. The four stars of the game were all 25 and under, giving depressed Royal fans a little promise. Bummed Calvin Pickering, John Buck and Mark Teahen haven't exactly met expectations? Well, what are you doing watching the offense anyway? The game was impressive for what was on the mound, not at the plate.

It all started, unsurprisingly, with the right arm of Zack Greinke. While the preseason statistics all yielded to some serious regression for Greinke this year, Zack is proving to simply be the exception to the rule. All control, all changing speeds. Line drive percentages and FIPs might not be his friend, but gravity is. And for the Royals, who have been pinning their future hopes on Greinke's right shoulder since the day he was drafted.

Following Greinke came in the Royals most trusted reliever, who had been on some streak:

IP	H	ER	BB	K
12.1	7	0	3	14

When I gave these numbers to our friend, the Transaction Guy, he was left guessing Mark Prior's numbers before last night. Prior is close, of course, with with more hits and less strikeouts. The Cubs is a good theme, though this name will cause a bit more depression than Prior. This is the guy that forced me to question the Cubs, and who I said "should be the top choice in the [Rule 5] draft." Or better yet...

[Kansas City] might as well keep trying to pluck the next Johan Santana from the Rule 5 draft, possibly selecting Andy Sisco from my Cubbies this December.

So, Sisco entered the game in the top of the eighth inning, when White Sox broadcaster Darrin Jackson said of the southpaw, "I've never seen him or heard of him until now." It might just be me, but should any Chicago announcer be saying this on air about one of the Chicago team's largest mistakes of the winter? I digress, but it does speak to Sisco's obscurity, despite his huge frame and power stuff.

In his one inning on the mound, Sisco struck out the side, giving up just one single. His fastball was 91-94 mph, and thrown in twelve of his seventeen pitches. The other five were all sweeping sliders, 83-86 mph, diving away against left-handed batters. Sisco's lone hit came from Juan Uribe, who took a Sisco fastball the other way. White Sox hitters were consistently late on the fastball, hitting four foul balls in the inning.

It seems as though Sisco has found a home in the bullpen, and previous thoughts that he should eventually be placed back in the rotation should be thrown out. Sisco could soon be a part of a good power bullpen that Allard Baird is putting together for next to nothing.

Another name who could be a part of the mix is Ambiorix Burgos, who made his Major League debut in this game. Recognize the name? You might, he was mentioned in my breakout prospects article this past June:

Speaking of control problems, few in the minors need control to succeed like Ambiorix Burgos of the Royals. Last year in the Midwest League, Burgos struck out 172 batters in just 134 innings, while allowing just 109 hits. His problem? 75 walks. Burgos struck out more than ten batters four times, but also walked at least five on seven different occasions. Kansas City isn't the best organization to teach control (Colt Griffin), but they should make a point of it, because Burgos is one special talent.

In the offseason the Royals decided to do with Burgos what they had with Griffin: move his power stuff to the bullpen. The conversion quickly was a success in Wichita, where Burgos quickly dominated and drastically lowered his walk rate. With Jeremy Affeldt hurt and Mike MacDougal struggling, the Royals decided it was time to call up the 21-year-old. Not only that, but Tony Pena decided Burgos' debut would be in the ninth inning of a 2-2 game against the Majors' hottest team.

Ambiorix made Pena look like a genius. No fastball slower than 95, with a couple touching 98 mph. His other pitch is a splitter that acts similar to a change, thrown 85-87, and used when he struck out the first batter he faced. Burgos is definitely fastball friendly, throwing the pitch in ten of his thirteen pitches from the inning.

With this, Burgos could be in line for a few saves in Kansas City. 21-year-olds in the Majors face a tough learning curve, so you might pass on him on your fantasy team, but this is someone to watch. I can tell you that nothing made my Saturday better than watching one of my favorite prospects validate my faith.

Speaking of the White Sox, over the weekend Ozzie Guillen continued to be the 2005 Midas of coaching. Every decision he makes is a success, leading the Sox to an amazing 9-1 record in one-run games. One of those came when Pablo Ozuna came off the bench, the same Ozuna that barely made the White Sox, and had a game-winning hit.

This is also the same Ozuna that was the fifth-ranked shortstop by Baseball America in 2000. Discovering this, I became interested in what has happened to shortstop prospects recently, as their position tends to get them overrated. So I looked at every shortstop that made the BA top 100 from 1999-2003, and characterized them in two ways: successes and busts.

Of course, there are a few players who fall somewhere in the middle, and a few who are still too early to judge. But what I found, however, was a pretty even split: 13 successes and 14 busts. One of those busts being, of course, Pablo Ozuna. Here is a look at the other 26...

Successes	         Busts
Jose Reyes	Brandon Phillips
Khalil Greene	Jose Castillo
Angel Berroa	Wilson Betemit
Miguel Cabrera	Kelly Johnson
Alfonso Soriano	Antonio Perez
Jimmy Rollins	Ramon Vazquez
D'Angelo Jimenez	Felipe Lopez
Juan Uribe	Luis Montanez
Rafael Furcal	David Espinosa
Cesar Izturis	Ramon Santiago
Alex Gonzalez	Gookie Dawkins
Mike Cuddyer	Brent Butler
Cristian Guzman	Kelly Dransfeldt

Amazing, isn't it? Four of the success stories have now moved, most notably Alfonso Soriano and Miguel Cabrera. This is not the kind of rate that we would like to see, with just nine players of the 26 we projected so highly becoming stars at short. Expecting production up the middle -- and not being sold just by the position -- is something we should all double-check the next time around.

The day after this Burgos game, the one that Ozuna won, was another youth-filled day. The first seven innings were thrown by Denny Bautista, a favorite of mine since the day I watched him pitch at the 2003 Futures Game. In seven innings the right-hander allowed two hits, four walks and two runs. Last July, I made Bautista my 74th best midseason prospect, with this comment attached to his name:

I was taken aback by Bautista at the 2003 Futures Game, where I saw him as the most intimidating pitcher out there. He was last year's version of Jose Capellan, and I won't forget that anytime soon. Trading Bautista for Jason Grimsley is grounds for firing, because I think Bautista will turn out to be a good one, whether in the bullpen or the rotation. He's been fantastic since joining the Royals, what with a 1.61 ERA in four starts, allowing just 18 hits in 28 innings.

Bautista is now proving that the move to the bullpen that has been rumored since his first organization might not have to happen. This is a kid that upset Mike Wood for a rotation spot in Spring Training, and has not turned around. Denny and Zack can now combine to give the Royals a solid 1-2 punch for the future, one that will soon add players like J.P. Howell, Matt Campbell, and whoever Baird adds next.

What comes next will decide whether Baird's rebuilding process ends in success or failure. Alex Gordon or Mike Pelfrey? Trade Mike Sweeney and who else? Play Billy Butler at what decision?

The wins this season do not matter. In fact, that 3-2 loss in ten innings could be one of the more impressive games of the season. Well, that is until they found that veteran to pitch the tenth.

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I was in Phoenix this past weekend on a combination business and pleasure trip. I met with a client Friday afternoon, went to the Padres-Diamondbacks game that evening, and then spent all day Saturday meeting with the management team of International Speedway and attending the Subway Fresh 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.

You might say I experienced my own version of Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. After a scheduled one-hour flight from Long Beach took two hours, I had the misfortune of getting the next available taxi cab at the Phoenix airport. I should have known I was in trouble when I said "Mesa" and he asked me "which freeway?"

Despite giving the driver the directions from Mapquest my secretary provided me, he chose to take a circuitous route that ended up with nearly as many left turns as I witnessed the following day at the stock car race. The taxi cab driver, who hails from Guana, waited in the car during my meeting and then drove me back to the hotel. I would be shocked if the U.S. Treasury ever sees one cent of the $130 the combined fares and tips cost me.

My younger brother Gary picked me up in his SUV and we drove to the ballgame with his two boys. It was the quickest and straightest trip of the weekend, which also included a three-hour bus ride from the track to the hotel Saturday night. Two of the three hours were spent in the parking lot in one of the biggest jams since Woodstock.

Shortly after we took our seats, Troy Glaus hit another home run in his first trip to the plate for my nephew by the same first name. It was the sixth time Troy has gone yard this year. He looks a heckuva lot better than Dallas McPherson, Robb Quinlan, and Maicer Izturis, who have combined to put up a .169/.194/.292 line thus far. But do not despair Angels fans. This trio has walked twice and struck out 17 times without a single home run. And lest we forget just how well McPherson and Quinlan can pick it at the hot corner.

Although Glaus was hitting just .213 going into the game, his slugging average was .574 -- a great example of a player performing much better than what his batting average would otherwise indicate. After the four bagger on Friday night and two doubles on Sunday, the big third baseman has upped his slugging average to .648. He is leading the National League in HR and is ninth in SLG and eighth in RBI.

Glaus is one of the principal reasons the Diamondbacks are 11-8 and in second place three weeks into the season. Unlike the former UCLA Bruin, the other stalwarts haven't exactly been the higher-priced stars brought in to turn the Snakes around.

Craig Counsell has walked 15 times thus far and is doing a pretty good imitation of a lead-off hitter. His .411 OBP is .050 higher than the next best starter (Shawn Green). The 34-year-old second baseman is second in the NL (behind Jose Valentin) with 4.34 pitches per plate appearance and his BB/PA rate of .205 is nearly twice his career average. For good measure, Counsell has also stolen four bases in five tries.

Brandon Webb (3-0, 2.63) is pitching the way I had hoped for last year when I drafted him in the fifth round of our fantasy draft. Although striking out batters at the lowest rate of his young career, Webb has only allowed nine walks in 27 1/3 innings -- significantly below his norm. Not surprisingly, the man with the heaviest sinker in the game is leading the league in groundball/flyball ratio at 5.55 or nearly two times the next best pitcher (Dontrelle Willis, who just so happened to steal Rookie of the Year honors from Webb two years ago).

The player who has stepped up more than anybody -- and I mean anybody -- could have imagined is Brandon Lyon. He is leading the major leagues in saves with eight. I, for one, remain skeptical. His 1.64 ERA is misleading due to the four unearned runs he allowed vs. the Dodgers in the first week of the season. The man who did not pitch a single inning in the big leagues last year has also given up 14 hits (including two home runs) in just 11 innings of work. To his credit, Lyon has struck out eight batters and allowed only one walk.

Brad Halsey (2-0, 2.74) pitched a good game when I was there Friday night. The former Yankee is enjoying success by throwing strikes (15 Ks, 2 BB). I'm not sure if the southpaw can keep the ball in play all year long at Bank One Ballpark, but he may turn out to be a pleasant surprise. Halsey isn't the type of pitcher who will make Diamondback fans forget Randy Johnson, but he may end up outpitching Javier Vazquez (another one of my great fantasy draft picks in 2004).

I don't know if you can call me a convert just yet, but please don't call me a cab.

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After spending hours on the couch yesterday watching the other sport's draft, I again must say Major League Baseball has a long way to go in perfecting their draft. While I am not as worried about the worldwide draft as some, I must say that the draft needs t