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A's & Rays Here to Stay?
There are two standout, surprise teams in the American League thus far in 2008 and they are not your garden variety May 13 standout clubs. The Oakland Athletics sit atop the AL West with a 23-16 record, also good for the best mark in the junior circuit. If only we lived in a pythag world, the A's would find themselves staked to a 4.5 game lead. By just about any advanced peripheral measure of the brand of baseball they have played, Oakland has been head-and-shoulders above the rest of the West. As it stands, they sit a half game up on the Los Angeles Angels. Tampa Bay is 22-16 and their record more or less reflects the quality of their play. While the Rays got off to a start that seemed to affirm at least somewhat the optimism that some showed before the 2008 campaign began (hat tip to BP's PECOTA who were all over Tampa Bay), they have really begun to turn heads over their last five games. In one game north of the border in Toronto, three against the Angels and last night against the Yankees, Tampa Bay has won five straight. In the process they outscored their opposition 27-9. A good quarter season, while not meaningless, tends not to portend what fans of hot-starters would like to think it does. Still, there are some measures we can take a look at to try and determine if Oakland and Tampa Bay's level of play might be sustainable. Put more accurately, we can analyze the parts of their play to date in 2008 that can be attributable to luck and/or flukiness, and which positive elements of their team composition appear legitimate and sustainable. So let's dig in a little bit:
AVG OBP SLG OPS+
OAK .254 .340 .366 102
TBR .258 .328 .395 101
Both teams thus far have featured slightly above average offensive attacks, not excessively influenced by batting average, a figure that can tend to mask deeper problems as team batting average will tend to settle into a narrow band. There is nothing in here that would seem to be of concern. Both teams should be able to sustain their respective batting averages, and Oakland in all likelihood has some upside opportunity in the slugging column. Looking a bit more closely at items that can prove to be artificial determinants when applied over the long haul, we see that the A's are sporting a red flag of sorts.
BABIP BA/RSP
OAK .295 .309
TBR .292 .277
AL .292 .271
Oakland is hitting .254 as a team, the league hits .271 with men in scoring position and Oakland is hitting .309 in these situations. It's unsustainable and minus improvement in other areas offensively, Oakland's run scoring will suffer. Fortunately for Oakland, there are reasons for optimism. Their 172 walks are best in the American League by a healthy clip. This suggests their fundamental approach at the plate is sound. As far as specific individual improvement candidates go, the one that stands out the most is Travis Buck. He hit .288/.377/.474 in 2007 but in 71 PA's has mustered just a .154/.197/.277 line. He is in Sacramento now, and in limited action there he has yet to find his stroke. Continues regular time in AAA might help speed up a return to form by Buck, which would go a long way in mitigating any impending regression from others. Another hitter in the A's lineup from whom we can expect more is Daric Barton, the highly touted rookie. Barton is hitting a respectable .237/.342/.348 but keep in mind, this is someone who slugged .639 in his first 84 MLB plate appearances as a 22 year-old. He slugged .459 in his Minor League career while playing the majority of that time in very hitter unfriendly Sacramento. For Tampa Bay, catcher Dioneer Navarro will not continue at his .362/.397/.449 pace but then Carlos Pena will not finish 2008 hitting just .209. Eric Hinske figures to cool off as well, but then Tampa Bay has received no production whatsoever from a middle infield that should improve significantly. Add up the good with the bad for this club and it all nets out to a place where this offense stays about as good as it has been; hovering around league average. On the run prevention side, both clubs have been remarkable. Below we can take a look at their ERA+, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers and their respective Defensive Efficiency Ratings (DER). Though I imagine many Baseball Analysts readers do not need this primer, here are definitions of the latter two statistics from The Hardball Times stat glossary: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger. Defense Efficiency Ratio. The percent of times a batted ball is turned into an out by the teams’ fielders, not including home runs. The exact formula we use is (BFP-H-K-BB-HBP-Errors)/(BFP-HR-K-BB-HBP). This is similar to BABIP, but from the defensive team's perspective. Please note that errors include only errors on batted balls.
ERA+ FIP DER
OAK 118 3.49 .706
TBR 109 3.90 .713
AL 100 4.17 .699
As you can see, both teams look entirely legitimate with regard to keeping runs off the board. Their peripheral numbers look great and they both appear to play very good defense. Keep in mind, too, that Scott Kazmir has made just two starts for the Rays while Rich Harden and Justin Duscherer (ok, maybe to nobody's surprise) have both missed time. One potential regression area for Oakland may be their bullpen (do yourself a favor and have a look at the season Santiago Casilla is having). It's hard to imagine but it looks to my eyes at least that both Oakland and Tampa are entirely legitimate. They will both have tough fights on their hands in order to qualify for post-season play in the highly competitive American League but they have started the season on the right foot and both sure seem to feature the make-up of clubs capable of fighting through to the end.
Looking to Avoid the Sophomore Jinx: AL
The 2007 season saw a number of exciting players come into both the American and National leagues. The junior league received some intriguing young pitchers, while the senior circuit welcomed some promising offensive players. We are more than a month into the 2008 so now is a good time to take a look at how the 2007 rookie class, now a collective group of sophomores, are doing. Are you as curious as I am to see how many of the promising 2007 rookies have been bitten by the dreaded sophomore jinx? Let's have a look at the American League today. 2007 AL Rookie of the Year Voting (10 points or more): Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia 132 Tampa Bay OF Delmon Young 56 Kansas City RHP Brian Bannister 36 Boston RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka 12 Los Angeles OF Reggie Willits 11 Others: Hideki Okajima, Josh Fields, Joakim Soria Let’s take a closer look at those players: Dustin Pedroia Pedroia is the type of player that doesn’t have too many highs or too many lows; he’s just incredibly consistent and a great complimentary player to the big boppers in Boston. He should be good for quite some time and could be one of those players who gets better as he ages, in the Mark Loretta mold.
The more I think about it, the less I like the idea of Young being a Minnesota Twin. The Twins, in general, aren't exactly known for being a patient team; they have always employed athletic, toolsy players that like to hack (Torii Hunter, Jacques Jones). Young might be better off on a club that forces him to be more selective. You can’t be a superstar with his type of approach (there is only one Vladimir Guerrero).
Willits has been hurt by the Angels’ position player depth and really hasn’t received a fair shot at following up on his solid rookie season. Regardless, he probably played over his head in 2007 and is a solid fourth outfielder, similar to the Cubs’ Reed Johnson.
Already stuck at Triple-A (and hitting .240), Fields has been sidelined by patella tendonitis, which never a pleasant injury for baseball players (just ask Mark McGwire). Continued low averages and on-base percentages will likely continue to hinder his major league success.
Bannister is probably a little over-hyped right now, which is hard to imagine for a major league pitcher that throws in the upper 80s and plays for Kansas City. He should probably be a solid starting pitcher for the next few years, but the loss of even a couple of miles an hour on the ol’ fastball could spell doom, regardless of how smart or observant he is.
With a repertoire like Matsuzaka’s it is hard to believe that he's been pitching away from contact, but that is exactly what he's been doing OR his command is really, really off. Ironically, as of the writing of this article he leads the majors in fewest hits allowed per nine innings… So what is he worried about? Someone needs to remind him that he is pretty darn good.
Okajima was an almost invisible free agent signing out of Japan before the 2007, but he has been absolutely outstanding coming out of the bullpen for the Red Sox. But we also have him to thank for teams going wild by signing mediocre Japanese middle relievers prior to the 2008 season; some of those have worked out, but others haven't.
There were quite a few scouts that felt Soria would be one of the more successful Rule 5 picks in 2007, but I don't think there were many that thought he’d be quite this good. Soria has helped to solidify a previously inconsistent (OK, terrible) Royals bullpen. He shows no signs of slowing down.
A Mother's Trip Down Memory Lane
I'm Rich's mother and agreed to "do" this story for Mother's Day. He and his son Joe are flying home today after spending a week on the east coast, attending games at Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, and Shea Stadium, as well as visiting Cooperstown for a couple of days. My credentials – I probably should say credential – are having been married to a sportswriter for thirty years. There were definitely some perks.
A Bite Out of the Big Apple
After a memorable subway ride and visit to Yankee Stadium (to see the old and the new) on Wednesday, Joe and I had the "day off," if you will, on Thursday.
I met Dave for a long lunch at Pershing Square on 42nd Street and Park Avenue. A former Athletic Director at Long Beach State, Temple, and Northeastern, Dave heads up the sports management program at Drexel University, teaches sports law, and is involved in a couple of other sports ventures as well. We caught up on old times and both of us are looking forward to a round of golf with our sons on Saturday afternoon at Dave's club in Philly.
Up on 79th Street, Alex highlighted another lovely old apartment building, The Apthorp. We walked up Broadway, past the Beacon Theater (where Steely Dan is performing), and saw Fairway, Citarella and Zabars, the food emporiums on our left. Finally, we ate at a deli called Artie's where I enjoyed a pastrami sandwich and a Dr. Brown's Black Cherry while Alex plowed down a couple of hot dogs and a ginger ale. After dinner, we walked over to West End Avenue and then one block further west to Riverside Drive, where we stopped and chatted at the edge of Riverside Park with the lights from New Jersey across the river shining through the green leaves on the countless number of trees that line the park. Alex hailed down a cab for me and asked the driver to take me by Lincoln Center on my way back to the New York Helmsley. We also passed the New York Library, the theatre district, Times Square, and I caught a glimpse of the Empire State Building in all of its green glory at night. Not bad for twenty bucks. Tonight promises to be another special night on our nine-day trip to the northeast. Alex, Repoz, Joe and I are going to the Reds-Mets game at Shea Stadium. Alex is planning on meeting us outside our hotel around 5:45 p.m. (that's Eastern Time) and the three of us are going to take a short stroll to Grand Central where we will hook up with Repoz, rain or shine, on the platform for the 7 train at 6 p.m. Keep your fingers crossed for us as the weather forecast calls for showers with temperatures ranging from 47 to 56 degrees. Joe and I want to extend our streak of great weather for a few more days. But there's a reason why I brought my rain coat. It just may be the day to finally bring it out of the ol' garment bag.
To THE Stadium and Back
I'm planning on putting up a follow-up post regarding our second day in Cooperstown, complete with photos and a few personal stories. However, for purposes of timeliness, I want to skip ahead to Wednesday night when Joe and I attended our first game at Yankee Stadium or THE Stadium as Yankee fans like to call it. Those of us from Southern California call our ballparks Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium. But, then again, we also succumb to easterners when it comes to describing the time. We say "Pacific Time" when conversing with folks outside our time zone whereas people on the so-called right side of the country would never add "Eastern Time" in describing when something was going to take place. Oh well, I'll be sure to schedule an appointment with a psychiatrist to talk about my inferiority complex when I get back home.
In any event, while making eye contact with Lee, I make a pitching motion with my left hand as if I were throwing a breaking ball. He gives me a quizzical look so I mouth "Cliff?" He nods his head. Conscientious that I'm wearing a NY hat for the first time in my life, I point to it and tell him that I'm from Long Beach, California and not really a Yankees fan. Lee smiled and shook his head. I explained that Joe and I were on a father-son baseball trip and had already been to Fenway Park the previous weekend and were going to our first Yankees game that night, and to Shea Stadium on Friday night. There wasn't a single person other than Joe or me who had any inclination that Cliff Lee was standing on the subway, holding onto the rail tightly with his left arm. The 29-year-old southpaw stands about an inch shorter than me (although he looked a tad shorter than that) but with more facial hair and was wearing a beige LaCoste shirt with a green alligator on it, designer jeans, comfortable shoes, and a silver Rolex on his right hand – the only real Rolex on the entire subway. In fact, I'm quite sure I could have bought two or three along the way for much less than what Lee paid for his watch (or it it a time piece?). Having garnered Lee's full attention at this point, I told him that ESPN was calling that evening's game "the pitching matchup of the season." Going into the game, Lee was 5-0 and Chien-Ming Wang was 6-0. Cliff responded modestly, "It's still early." I nodded and said, "Yeah, but it must feel good." Lee agreed, "It does." I winked as if to say, "Good job," and he smiled back as if to say, "Thanks." I left it at that and we rode in the rest of the way, exiting at 161st Street. Lee hurried off the subway and departed into a sea of commuters and early-arriving fans. Joe and I walked down the stairs and onto the street and there they were: the new Yankee Stadium directly in front of us and the old Yankee Stadium across the street and slightly to the left. We took several photos before going to Gate 2 and getting in line to tour Monument Park inside the stadium prior to the game. (I will put up photos as time permits later today or tomorrow.) I don't need to tell Yankee fans how the game turned out. Lee threw seven scoreless innings and picked up his sixth victory without a loss while lowering his ERA to 0.81. Did I mention that Lee has 39 strikeouts while only allowing 2 walks? I'm sure these same fans (Alex included) wish I had tripped Lee on his way out the subway. Heck, ballplayer or no ballplayer, I wouldn't do that to someone I was just hangin' with. (As an aside, how did the Indians do in that trade where they sent Bartolo Colon to the Expos for Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips? Although Lee hasn't performed to expectations and Cleveland never capitalized on Phillips' late-blooming career, Sizemore has been one of the best center fielders in baseball the past several years and Lee is pitching as well as – or better than – anyone in baseball this season.)
Are the Salt Lake Bees Worth All the Buzz?
As just about every minor league fan knows by now, the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League (Triple-A) have been very, very good this season. The club was 23-2 in the month of April. The Bees have had a little tougher going in May with a 2-4 record and the club is now 25-6, but still eight games up on Tacoma in the Pacific North Division. In April, the Bees collectively were first overall in average (.320), on-base percentage (.395) and runs scored (190). It was also second in slugging percentage (.506) next to Albuquerque, and third in homers (34) behind Albuquerque and Omaha. We know what the team is doing, so let’s take a look at some of the individual players: SS/3B Brandon Wood (.273/.333/.614) IF Sean Rodriguez (.250/.429/.531) 3B Matt Brown (.382/.424/.699) C Bobby Wilson (.325/.391/.434) 1B Kendry Morales (.291/.320/.470) IF Freddy Sandoval (.346/.390/.570) Here is how those hitters are doing so far in May: Brandon Wood 0/0 | --- Sean Rodriguez 0/4 | .000 Matt Brown 2/17 | .118 Bobby Wilson 6/21 | .286 Kendry Morales 9/27 | .333 Freddy Sandoval 4/24 | .167 Pitching-wise in April, the club was first in ERA (3.34), shutouts (five), and runs allowed (97). The Bees organization was also third in saves (eight) and home runs allowed (20), fourth in fewest hits allowed (229). Let’s take a look at some of the individual pitchers: RHP Nick Adenhart (4-0, 0.87 ERA) RHP Nick Green (3-0, 3.38 ERA) RHP Shane Loux (4-2, 3.79 ERA) Jose Arredondo (8 saves, 2.40 ERA) The Angels do have some interesting players on the Salt Lake club, but it seems clear that the club significantly over-achieved in April and we are already beginning to see the players come back down to earth in May. Regardless, the future still looks bright for the likes of Adenhart and Wood. |